Closed Caption:
folks Michael Zuber won Red till at a
time
I want to give a special shout out to
Lance Lambert
who is somebody I’ve had on this channel
somebody who is a great follow on
excuse me sorry about that go bless me
again one more time Lance Lambert great
follow on Twitter
he put out a series of tweets yesterday
talking about the housing crash by the
numbers
he did give full credit to the source
which we do here as well a lot of this
data came from Zillow there’s a lot of
data in this we’re going to talk about
eight cities we’re going to talk about
Dallas Austin Miami Atlanta
Phoenix Tampa Columbus and Sacramento
what we are going to talk about folks is
housing tiers right we have to
understand we have to understand that
data so we can interpret what we think
is going on
so inside each of these eight cities
as you should probably know and expect
they all have different median home
prices
okay so the the what we’re about to go
through in these just horrible
crash-like numbers is
based on each City’s media home price
okay
the Columbus median home price is not
Sacramento Sacramento is not Austin so
on and so forth so what you will see
again Lance Lambert uh editor Fortune uh
sourcing from Zillow is tears there’s
the low tier
which is zero to 35 percent of area
median so for example
if your median home price was a million
dollars
35 of that would be 350 Grand so it’s
definitely first time home buyer that’s
how I look at these numbers right for me
low is first time home buyers and this
is going to become important
this is what I’m talking about when I
talk about a housing crash understanding
what may or may not happen to median
home price next
mid
from 35 to 65 to me for this General
discussion that is the move up buyer
right and then the high end or what we
will call Luxury here
65 or higher right so again we have
first time home buyer
move up buyer
luxury buyer we are going to talk about
those three
I don’t know tears
across eight markets so let’s get into
it let’s talk about it so
we are going to talk about
tier one
two and three you know what let’s just
use my vocabulary
just so we stay consistent so this is
first time home buyer
this is move up
and this is luxury
right this is important this is
basically trying to figure out what is
happening in in our markets and again
you should be looking at your buy box
your area look at it daily all of that
good stuff so again
the first time home buyers in Dallas
down 11.2 percent
again folks these are transactions or
what is called sales so sales to
first-time home buyers in Dallas Texas
are down 11.2 percent in June
what about the move-up buyer remember
when you watch my channel I have said
and often repeated the move up buyer is
dead
well what does the data look like well
move up buyer
down
19
percent
and again folks we have to remember this
is June data this is June
why is June important because June was
the month that the average mortgage rate
went over six percent
why is June important because I believe
mortgage rates are already over six
percent and on the path to seven so
understanding what happened in June
might give us color for what happens the
rest of the year
I do not have a good feeling this epic
crash in housing transactions is going
to get worse so what about the high end
there’s been a lot of people
who have said the high-end buyer the
luxury buyer not impacted they’re the
cash buyers that we hear about all the
time well folks even luxury buyers at
least in Dallas Texas are impacted by
higher rates they were down
25.9 percent
foreign
so that’s Dallas let’s look over at
their sister city Austin Austin
to me as an outsider somebody who has
never ever ever ever looked at Austin
it feels to me like Austin is the
hottest of hot markets in Texas Texas is
all kinds of hot
but what about Austin specifically well
first time home buyers in Austin Texas
are down 13.3 percent
move up down
22.5 percent
oh I already did that uh whatever and
then down
32 percent
that’s a heck of a drop 30 for the
luxury Market again Austin’s expensive
you got all these Californians and
whatnot’s moving there
think about that that is one third of
the luxury business in Austin Texas
crashed in one month
pretty crazy how about Miami talk about
a hot hot hot Market what is going on in
Miami well
still down first time home buyers down
8.2 percent
move up buyers down
16.9 percent
and luxury
29.6 percent
again folks full credit to Lance Lambert
he put this out on Twitter you could go
to his Twitter feed follow it see what’s
going on uh see all the information
let’s go out to Atlanta Atlanta
of first-time home buyers only down 2.4
percent
middle down 8.3
and the high end down 19. 5 percent
so if we look at these four markets
again completely Outsider somebody who’s
not looked at any of these markets
Atlanta is the one that is the least hot
right I hear about Austin I hear about
Miami I hear about Dallas check out
Austin
looks like first time home buyers are
still doing okay in Austin move up
buyers eh right down eight percent but
the luxury Market is getting hit
what we see across all of these is the
luxury Market is getting hit the worse
so higher rates matter the luxury Market
is getting whacked and again what do I
think is going on
I actually think this is just the
move-up buyer
the move up buyer right they’re staying
put they’re not moving move-up buyers
sell one buy one
they’re not going up but let’s continue
because we got four more to go through
what about Phoenix how many times have
we talked about Phoenix on this Market
open doors got like 2 300 listings just
going crazy crazy crazy
same idea first time home buyer move up
buyer luxury
down 18.1 percent oh I’m sorry 18.2
percent
this is first time homemeyer this is
move up this is luxury
this is different
this is the first time that happened
we’ll talk about that in a minute and
then
luxury is down
this is the first time this is the first
this is the fifth City and the first
time this happened
the middle the move up buyer is down the
least
or I’m sorry yeah it is it’s down the
least first time home buyers down 18
move up down 14 luxury down 23.
something’s going on in Phoenix maybe
this is open door selling off inventory
in fact that’s probably exactly what it
is open door who is a forced seller is
selling off this move up Market again
remember
35 to 65 percent
of area media and average so
interesting to look at Tampa
let’s look at Tampa another hot Market
oh
I need to get a new color this is the
first time this happened Tampa is
positive
1.5 percent
so first time home buyers in Tampa
actually up
up
pretty interesting
move up buyers down 11.4 percent
and luxury down
23.6 percent
again that’s the first time we’ve seen
that this is up 1.5 percent shout out to
the folks in Tampa how about Columbus
down
5.1 percent
again I need a new color
Plus
5.6 I get that right yep
and then down
5.1 percent
and then let’s just round it out with
Sacramento
down 22.6 down 19.9 and down 36.7
so a couple of things to note right this
this first of all these markets
Columbus
is different
right you and I have probably heard
about Austin in Miami and Sacramento and
Phoenix just hot hot markets
Columbus Ohio
not a market at least I have heard about
as a bubble Market maybe you have but I
have it
look at that Columbus has the least down
in transactions
it actually is the only Market that is
up from move-up buyers
my guess and again these are just
guesses is people are moving to Columbus
they are taking their quote-unquote bags
full of money
and they are buying in Columbus
I don’t know that for sure that is just
my guess if you invest in Columbus Ohio
please leave a comment below I would
love to hear from you
the other thing to look at again is the
trend right Tampa
was one of two markets with an up number
Tampa’s first time home buyers up
Columbus move-up buyers up
Sacramento first time home buyers hurt
move up buyers not quite as much
is that just a repricing of Sacramento
don’t know
luxury
hurt across the board why could luxury
be hurt well luxury buyers at my
experience often are quote unquote the
wealthiest shocking
but they often have the largest stock
portfolios
maybe they invested in crypto or in a
tease or something else they don’t feel
as Rich they don’t feel as confident
they don’t want to buy and cash
this is also obviously again remember
this is June data
a six percent interest rate if you don’t
know the math
Hurts the Most
on the largest loan
so there’s a lot going on here but
clearly
every Market is suffering from higher
rates
transactions what was the highest drop
in transactions wow look at Sacramento
down 36 percent we had Austin Texas down
32 percent in the luxury Market
how about the move up Market
move up Market wow Austin got hit again
22.5 largest drop in the move up Market
the best Market was Columbus with a plus
five percent 5.6
first time home buyers
Sacramento Sacramento and Phoenix
largest drop for first time home buyers
22 and 18 the best of course being Tampa
special shout out one more time to Lance
Lambert who has been a guest on my
Channel please follow him on Twitter he
is a editor at uh Fortune Magazine again
all this data is sourced from Zillow
pretty interesting to watch it’s pretty
interesting to watch and again if you
follow my channel you know I think rates
are going to seven percent
so again if this happened at six percent
what kind of Crash numbers are we gonna
see at seven
I think transactions are going to go
down across the board every segment the
FED broke housing
it’s just
it’s going to take years to unpack this
Supply destruction is worse and not
talked about enough
people don’t have to sell they try to
sell they don’t get the price they stay
put you are going to hear even empty
nesters
who live in 3 000 square foot homes all
by themselves
they are going to start to say you know
what
I’ll stay put one more year
I’ll sell next year I’ll sell when it’s
a better market
supply destruction
because of the Federal Reserve and the
low interest rate loans which is now a
family’s best asset yes folks the three
percent mortgage is an asset in a world
of seven percent mortgages the three
percent mortgage is an asset
in a world of five six seven percent
inflation
a three percent mortgage is an asset
the FED broke housing
if you are in the real estate business
it’s going to get worse we are already
down 20 25 30 percent
get ready for a 50 decline in the real
estate commissions inspections
transactions if you are an investor
let’s close on a high note
if you are an investor you should be
getting excited
do the work look every day
find the motivated sellers get closing
cost credit get rate buy Downs ask for
the moon folks it is clearly crumbling
the housing slowdown is real as we have
talked about many many times I would
call this a crash without question it is
what we have been talking about on this
channel and we have called for months so
I feel pretty good about this all right
folks we will do the daily financial
news shortly it is Friday September 2nd
have an amazing day it is Labor Day
weekend if I am not mistaken which I
think is a three-day weekend for most of
you enjoy it have fun don’t forget to
look at your buy box don’t forget to
track what’s going on bye