ZILLOW HOUSING CRASH BY THE NUMBERS!! 8 Cities show shocking Crash Across Market Segments

Closed Caption:

folks Michael Zuber won Red till at a

time

I want to give a special shout out to

Lance Lambert

who is somebody I’ve had on this channel

somebody who is a great follow on

excuse me sorry about that go bless me

again one more time Lance Lambert great

follow on Twitter

he put out a series of tweets yesterday

talking about the housing crash by the

numbers

he did give full credit to the source

which we do here as well a lot of this

data came from Zillow there’s a lot of

data in this we’re going to talk about

eight cities we’re going to talk about

Dallas Austin Miami Atlanta

Phoenix Tampa Columbus and Sacramento

what we are going to talk about folks is

housing tiers right we have to

understand we have to understand that

data so we can interpret what we think

is going on

so inside each of these eight cities

as you should probably know and expect

they all have different median home

prices

okay so the the what we’re about to go

through in these just horrible

crash-like numbers is

based on each City’s media home price

okay

the Columbus median home price is not

Sacramento Sacramento is not Austin so

on and so forth so what you will see

again Lance Lambert uh editor Fortune uh

sourcing from Zillow is tears there’s

the low tier

which is zero to 35 percent of area

median so for example

if your median home price was a million

dollars

35 of that would be 350 Grand so it’s

definitely first time home buyer that’s

how I look at these numbers right for me

low is first time home buyers and this

is going to become important

this is what I’m talking about when I

talk about a housing crash understanding

what may or may not happen to median

home price next

mid

from 35 to 65 to me for this General

discussion that is the move up buyer

right and then the high end or what we

will call Luxury here

65 or higher right so again we have

first time home buyer

move up buyer

luxury buyer we are going to talk about

those three

I don’t know tears

across eight markets so let’s get into

it let’s talk about it so

we are going to talk about

tier one

two and three you know what let’s just

use my vocabulary

just so we stay consistent so this is

first time home buyer

this is move up

and this is luxury

right this is important this is

basically trying to figure out what is

happening in in our markets and again

you should be looking at your buy box

your area look at it daily all of that

good stuff so again

the first time home buyers in Dallas

down 11.2 percent

again folks these are transactions or

what is called sales so sales to

first-time home buyers in Dallas Texas

are down 11.2 percent in June

what about the move-up buyer remember

when you watch my channel I have said

and often repeated the move up buyer is

dead

well what does the data look like well

move up buyer

down

19

percent

and again folks we have to remember this

is June data this is June

why is June important because June was

the month that the average mortgage rate

went over six percent

why is June important because I believe

mortgage rates are already over six

percent and on the path to seven so

understanding what happened in June

might give us color for what happens the

rest of the year

I do not have a good feeling this epic

crash in housing transactions is going

to get worse so what about the high end

there’s been a lot of people

who have said the high-end buyer the

luxury buyer not impacted they’re the

cash buyers that we hear about all the

time well folks even luxury buyers at

least in Dallas Texas are impacted by

higher rates they were down

25.9 percent

foreign

so that’s Dallas let’s look over at

their sister city Austin Austin

to me as an outsider somebody who has

never ever ever ever looked at Austin

it feels to me like Austin is the

hottest of hot markets in Texas Texas is

all kinds of hot

but what about Austin specifically well

first time home buyers in Austin Texas

are down 13.3 percent

move up down

22.5 percent

oh I already did that uh whatever and

then down

32 percent

that’s a heck of a drop 30 for the

luxury Market again Austin’s expensive

you got all these Californians and

whatnot’s moving there

think about that that is one third of

the luxury business in Austin Texas

crashed in one month

pretty crazy how about Miami talk about

a hot hot hot Market what is going on in

Miami well

still down first time home buyers down

8.2 percent

move up buyers down

16.9 percent

and luxury

29.6 percent

again folks full credit to Lance Lambert

he put this out on Twitter you could go

to his Twitter feed follow it see what’s

going on uh see all the information

let’s go out to Atlanta Atlanta

of first-time home buyers only down 2.4

percent

middle down 8.3

and the high end down 19. 5 percent

so if we look at these four markets

again completely Outsider somebody who’s

not looked at any of these markets

Atlanta is the one that is the least hot

right I hear about Austin I hear about

Miami I hear about Dallas check out

Austin

looks like first time home buyers are

still doing okay in Austin move up

buyers eh right down eight percent but

the luxury Market is getting hit

what we see across all of these is the

luxury Market is getting hit the worse

so higher rates matter the luxury Market

is getting whacked and again what do I

think is going on

I actually think this is just the

move-up buyer

the move up buyer right they’re staying

put they’re not moving move-up buyers

sell one buy one

they’re not going up but let’s continue

because we got four more to go through

what about Phoenix how many times have

we talked about Phoenix on this Market

open doors got like 2 300 listings just

going crazy crazy crazy

same idea first time home buyer move up

buyer luxury

down 18.1 percent oh I’m sorry 18.2

percent

this is first time homemeyer this is

move up this is luxury

this is different

this is the first time that happened

we’ll talk about that in a minute and

then

luxury is down

this is the first time this is the first

this is the fifth City and the first

time this happened

the middle the move up buyer is down the

least

or I’m sorry yeah it is it’s down the

least first time home buyers down 18

move up down 14 luxury down 23.

something’s going on in Phoenix maybe

this is open door selling off inventory

in fact that’s probably exactly what it

is open door who is a forced seller is

selling off this move up Market again

remember

35 to 65 percent

of area media and average so

interesting to look at Tampa

let’s look at Tampa another hot Market

oh

I need to get a new color this is the

first time this happened Tampa is

positive

1.5 percent

so first time home buyers in Tampa

actually up

up

pretty interesting

move up buyers down 11.4 percent

and luxury down

23.6 percent

again that’s the first time we’ve seen

that this is up 1.5 percent shout out to

the folks in Tampa how about Columbus

down

5.1 percent

again I need a new color

Plus

5.6 I get that right yep

and then down

5.1 percent

and then let’s just round it out with

Sacramento

down 22.6 down 19.9 and down 36.7

so a couple of things to note right this

this first of all these markets

Columbus

is different

right you and I have probably heard

about Austin in Miami and Sacramento and

Phoenix just hot hot markets

Columbus Ohio

not a market at least I have heard about

as a bubble Market maybe you have but I

have it

look at that Columbus has the least down

in transactions

it actually is the only Market that is

up from move-up buyers

my guess and again these are just

guesses is people are moving to Columbus

they are taking their quote-unquote bags

full of money

and they are buying in Columbus

I don’t know that for sure that is just

my guess if you invest in Columbus Ohio

please leave a comment below I would

love to hear from you

the other thing to look at again is the

trend right Tampa

was one of two markets with an up number

Tampa’s first time home buyers up

Columbus move-up buyers up

Sacramento first time home buyers hurt

move up buyers not quite as much

is that just a repricing of Sacramento

don’t know

luxury

hurt across the board why could luxury

be hurt well luxury buyers at my

experience often are quote unquote the

wealthiest shocking

but they often have the largest stock

portfolios

maybe they invested in crypto or in a

tease or something else they don’t feel

as Rich they don’t feel as confident

they don’t want to buy and cash

this is also obviously again remember

this is June data

a six percent interest rate if you don’t

know the math

Hurts the Most

on the largest loan

so there’s a lot going on here but

clearly

every Market is suffering from higher

rates

transactions what was the highest drop

in transactions wow look at Sacramento

down 36 percent we had Austin Texas down

32 percent in the luxury Market

how about the move up Market

move up Market wow Austin got hit again

22.5 largest drop in the move up Market

the best Market was Columbus with a plus

five percent 5.6

first time home buyers

Sacramento Sacramento and Phoenix

largest drop for first time home buyers

22 and 18 the best of course being Tampa

special shout out one more time to Lance

Lambert who has been a guest on my

Channel please follow him on Twitter he

is a editor at uh Fortune Magazine again

all this data is sourced from Zillow

pretty interesting to watch it’s pretty

interesting to watch and again if you

follow my channel you know I think rates

are going to seven percent

so again if this happened at six percent

what kind of Crash numbers are we gonna

see at seven

I think transactions are going to go

down across the board every segment the

FED broke housing

it’s just

it’s going to take years to unpack this

Supply destruction is worse and not

talked about enough

people don’t have to sell they try to

sell they don’t get the price they stay

put you are going to hear even empty

nesters

who live in 3 000 square foot homes all

by themselves

they are going to start to say you know

what

I’ll stay put one more year

I’ll sell next year I’ll sell when it’s

a better market

supply destruction

because of the Federal Reserve and the

low interest rate loans which is now a

family’s best asset yes folks the three

percent mortgage is an asset in a world

of seven percent mortgages the three

percent mortgage is an asset

in a world of five six seven percent

inflation

a three percent mortgage is an asset

the FED broke housing

if you are in the real estate business

it’s going to get worse we are already

down 20 25 30 percent

get ready for a 50 decline in the real

estate commissions inspections

transactions if you are an investor

let’s close on a high note

if you are an investor you should be

getting excited

do the work look every day

find the motivated sellers get closing

cost credit get rate buy Downs ask for

the moon folks it is clearly crumbling

the housing slowdown is real as we have

talked about many many times I would

call this a crash without question it is

what we have been talking about on this

channel and we have called for months so

I feel pretty good about this all right

folks we will do the daily financial

news shortly it is Friday September 2nd

have an amazing day it is Labor Day

weekend if I am not mistaken which I

think is a three-day weekend for most of

you enjoy it have fun don’t forget to

look at your buy box don’t forget to

track what’s going on bye

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