WWIII Is an Economic War and it has Started. Everyone in the World Will Feel the Impact Shortly

Video Closed Captioning:

good morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael zuber one rental at a time

we got our sunday guest we start out hot

with mr todd baldwin how you doing sir

i’m doing great thanks for having me

yeah this first topic um is not going to

be fun

in my daily financial news i talked

about world war iii has already started

i want to give full credit to who i

heard this from there’s a podcast called

the all-in podcast which i listened to

on the weekends

and they basically said we’ve already

started world war three it is actually

going to be a different type of war it

won’t be fought with bullets in tanks

and bombers but instead it will be

fought in the

economy and

it kind of shook me

because when i think about what has

happened in the last 10 or 12 or 14 days

however long it’s been

i think they’re right

right you’ve seen the you’ve seen the

world

sort of freeze out russia you’ve seen

uh assets being seized

uh you have seen

systems in applications or interfaces or

whatever you call visa mastercard paypal

just stop working you have boeing stop

repairing planes you have

you have all of this stuff

there will be ramifications on the other

side you have hungary for example

making it illegal

to ship

wheat in corn

right

so what i see in this and the reason i

agree it’s a world wars because we will

all feel the impact we are not carrying

guns we are not being directly fired at

or bombed at but

we are starting to feel the

ramifications already it’s like dropping

a stone in a still water

we’re filling the first circle and more

is coming

so i mean i just saw this morning

national average of gas

over four bucks just ticked over four

bucks that was fast

it’s on its way to 450 maybe five

dollars that’s crazy for national

i think the bigger issue todd that

really makes me shiver is food

insecurity it’s something i suffered

through as a young man or a child

and i think it could very quickly come

to lots of people around the world which

will then just force relationships right

when you play the was it risk was that

the game where you had a map of the

world and you had armies and all of that

there’s risk and there’s settlers of

catan and there’s a few of them like

that yeah yeah so when you when i play

that out in my head like in three or

four weeks you’re gonna have countries

that need food

and they could

create alliances out of necessity

and

that freaks me out a little bit so uh

i’m going to stop there

and see if this idea of a world war

three starting already as an economic

war versus maybe

a traditional

war we read about in our history books

how does that hit you does it feel

feasible

it absolutely does when i was in high

school i read a book called confessions

of an economic hitman

and basically i don’t know if you’ve

ever read the book but what he would do

is if

he worked for the united states

government

and if the government

basically wanted to wage war on another

country

first this guy and people like him would

go try to extract resources or bankrupt

that country that was like the first

tier and usually it worked if it didn’t

work then they’d send to the jackals to

maybe like execute their leaders and if

that didn’t work they’d accidentally

armies and military and go to war but he

basically

i don’t want to say stops many wars

because it’s a different kind of or as

you said but he basically bankrupted and

extracted resources from many different

countries and i see with

russia invading ukraine

the us isn’t sending troops well at

least haven’t yet they’re not sending

troops to ukraine right now to defend

but they are freezing out russia and

they’re blocking them from you know

trading and freezing bank accounts and

all these things and essentially

draining them and if you have no

resources or cash flow then you can’t

really fund a war effort

and um yeah i i think this is i think

this is really scary it’s gonna be huge

i mean i

i feel for people in ukraine it’s it’s

amazing to see the citizens

taking up arms and defending their

country and their leader too by the way

and this is just a tangent i don’t care

for democrat or republican i know of

no

u.s politicians that would take up arms

and go fight on the front lines of the

battlefield to defend our country they’d

probably hit out in some mansion

somewhere

anyway that’s just my

bitching about

u.s

politicians but

no it’s um

it’s insane and i i read a statistic and

again anyone can feel free to fact check

me on this it’s early i might not have

the right numbers but i believe china um

does about six like export 60

of the grain that we that we use

and so

if we ever like get in a fight with

china they could be like all right screw

you and just shut off the grain right

and it’s like okay well now that’s 60

like that’s a huge staple of our food

yeah and um yeah it’s it’s a terrifying

reality there’s also a global water

shortage and i know that water is a

cycle but what that basically means is

that the cycle of water isn’t big enough

to sustain everyone on earth

indefinitely like there are too many

people on the planet and i don’t want to

talk about eugenics that’s not what i’m

talking about but like there are so many

people on the planet and the water cycle

is only so much it’s just yeah there’s a

lot of stuff going on it’s crazy

oh thank you for all of that frightening

stuff but yeah so i got to check out

that book confessions of an economic

hitman you read that in high school

i did i read it in high school i

actually did a paper on it too um i did

a report on it and oddly enough this is

so crazy so years you know it’s been

10 years since i graduated high school

but 12 years probably since i wrote that

paper just recently the author of that

book

went on i believe it was the

valuetainment podcast with patrick bet

david if you know of him i know him i

like his stuff yeah okay yeah so he just

recently did that and i was like holy

crap i read this dude’s book 12 years

ago so yeah it’s really interesting i

will take a look thank you for that so

one of the things that i did after being

shook again by the all-in podcast i want

to give credit where the ideas come from

is i tried to map out the rest of the

year

so i’m going to lay this out

how i see the dominoes and then the

dominoes falling and my hope

is you point out where i’m wrong

because

where i end up is not a very good spot

so

step one and again let’s be clear a

peace treaty gets signed today

all this stops right the peace treaty

the peace treaty stops these dominoes

let’s be very clear i hope it happens

today

assuming it doesn’t first and foremost

we’re already seeing it todd inflation

gets hotter

in the short term

short term being between now and six

months right it was already hot it was

already going to be a big number but it

gets hotter from here

i think that frankly is a layup

number two and this is where i hope i’m

wrong

i’m still holding to my guns that

they’re gonna rope a dope us and give us

a 50 basis point bump i just think

i just think i’m smoking crack when i

say that but i just want to i want to

keep saying it but in my step two or

second domino is the fed is weak

and they only do 25 basis points and

they do that

a few times

but by doing that they don’t nip

anything in the butt and inflation just

keeps raging

so step two the fed is weak

step three i believe sometime this year

sooner rather than later

i hope i hope it happens today peace

breaks out

my hope is we’re not still talking about

this at christmas for example

it is resolved and it’s resolved in a

peaceful way

i suspect when that happens we are going

to get another rush because it will be

good news we will probably have suffered

bad news after bad news after bad news

we will then have

euphoria and good news

and what will happen is we will go out

and increase demand into an inflationary

environment with no supply and inflation

will rage even higher

making the fed

farther and farther behind at which

point

paul volcker or i’m sorry jerome powell

either resigns

or gets fired

and they bring in a paul voker 2.0

who suddenly has to start jacking rates

by a half or a point interme weekend

raises like paul volcker did uh in the

early 80s

and

slams the u.s and likely world economy

into a deep dark recession

so

that fun journey

ahead of us uh where

please tell me i’m missing something

how does this how does this feel

yeah i mean i feel like it sucks but

you’re probably not too far off oh come

on

the inflation thing is appropriate i

think what

so i saw this thing the other day and it

was clearly posted by a young person who

is a very

good person

who’s just naive because they haven’t

lived enough and i know that’s ironic

when i say it because i’m 29

but

the person was like inflation is a myth

it’s all just corporate greed

oh yeah

right i know i know oh well and there

there is corporate greed no questions

like inflation

and inflation is a real thing though

it’s it’s the value of your currency is

being depleted because so much is being

printed like that is a real thing it’s

not a myth

and yeah we’re doing a terrible job with

it

and i think you’re right as soon as

there’s

as soon as there’s more demand i mean

that that’s pretty much what happened

last year with the with the car shortage

i mean there was a there was a

shortage of computer chips so there was

less overall cars being produced but

everyone was making stimulus checks and

interest rates were an all-time low so

there was an influx of people who just

got stimulated who wanted to buy cars

and there weren’t enough to go around so

the price of each individual car

skyrocketed

that’s basically what happened and it

will happen again so yeah i agree with

you

well thanks

again folks if you’re watching this i

shared this on my daily financial news

please tell me what i’m missing

because again

it’s

ah

i just don’t i don’t it’s it’s

yeah it’s it’s not a good feeling that’s

why i will be getting residential

properties with 30-year fixed rate debt

because when this guy comes out because

a guy or gal to be sexist but again

right this plays out

paul volcker gets fired i’m sorry paul

volcker jerome powell uh fight gets

fired or quits

we get a new person who comes in and

just takes the reins

i mean we could see rates

i mean because again all right if you

play this out war than peace and then

happiness and blah blah blah blah

and there’s all this freaking money

still sloshing around the system

i mean

i mean seriously they could they could

take the fed funds rates to five or six

percent and if the fund rate is six

percent

what’s the ten year eight

what’s the 30 or

nine and a half or ten

and again it won’t be there long

in the you know when you zoom out it’ll

be there for a year 18 months

but

that’s still gonna break stuff

it’ll break stuff and people are going

to want to buy as an alternative to

paying a ton of money in rent

no i think i think you’re absolutely

right buy as many single family homes at

cheap interest rates that’s that was

honestly one of the biggest motivators

for me to start really teaching people

the house hack stuff because it’s like

man buy a house

get some roommates but at least you have

a house live in there do it for a couple

of years that’s all you need to do

live for free on low interest and just

get a property and so

yeah i

i agree with you 100

all right well on that we are going to

close episode one because we’re gonna

get on to different topics but yeah

folks if you see a different outcome

please let me know again remember peace

breaks out today

uh this all stops so this you know this

doesn’t have to happen it could be a

fork in the road which i hope we don’t

go down jerome powell

your job is on the line buddy raise

rates by a half march 16th

uh put stop all of this you do have a

choice here that you can help stop this

so thanks for everything man

absolutely

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