Video Closed Captioning:
good morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael zuber one rental at a time
we got our sunday guest we start out hot
with mr todd baldwin how you doing sir
i’m doing great thanks for having me
yeah this first topic um is not going to
be fun
in my daily financial news i talked
about world war iii has already started
i want to give full credit to who i
heard this from there’s a podcast called
the all-in podcast which i listened to
on the weekends
and they basically said we’ve already
started world war three it is actually
going to be a different type of war it
won’t be fought with bullets in tanks
and bombers but instead it will be
fought in the
economy and
it kind of shook me
because when i think about what has
happened in the last 10 or 12 or 14 days
however long it’s been
i think they’re right
right you’ve seen the you’ve seen the
world
sort of freeze out russia you’ve seen
uh assets being seized
uh you have seen
systems in applications or interfaces or
whatever you call visa mastercard paypal
just stop working you have boeing stop
repairing planes you have
you have all of this stuff
there will be ramifications on the other
side you have hungary for example
making it illegal
to ship
wheat in corn
right
so what i see in this and the reason i
agree it’s a world wars because we will
all feel the impact we are not carrying
guns we are not being directly fired at
or bombed at but
we are starting to feel the
ramifications already it’s like dropping
a stone in a still water
we’re filling the first circle and more
is coming
so i mean i just saw this morning
national average of gas
over four bucks just ticked over four
bucks that was fast
it’s on its way to 450 maybe five
dollars that’s crazy for national
i think the bigger issue todd that
really makes me shiver is food
insecurity it’s something i suffered
through as a young man or a child
and i think it could very quickly come
to lots of people around the world which
will then just force relationships right
when you play the was it risk was that
the game where you had a map of the
world and you had armies and all of that
there’s risk and there’s settlers of
catan and there’s a few of them like
that yeah yeah so when you when i play
that out in my head like in three or
four weeks you’re gonna have countries
that need food
and they could
create alliances out of necessity
and
that freaks me out a little bit so uh
i’m going to stop there
and see if this idea of a world war
three starting already as an economic
war versus maybe
a traditional
war we read about in our history books
how does that hit you does it feel
feasible
it absolutely does when i was in high
school i read a book called confessions
of an economic hitman
and basically i don’t know if you’ve
ever read the book but what he would do
is if
he worked for the united states
government
and if the government
basically wanted to wage war on another
country
first this guy and people like him would
go try to extract resources or bankrupt
that country that was like the first
tier and usually it worked if it didn’t
work then they’d send to the jackals to
maybe like execute their leaders and if
that didn’t work they’d accidentally
armies and military and go to war but he
basically
i don’t want to say stops many wars
because it’s a different kind of or as
you said but he basically bankrupted and
extracted resources from many different
countries and i see with
russia invading ukraine
the us isn’t sending troops well at
least haven’t yet they’re not sending
troops to ukraine right now to defend
but they are freezing out russia and
they’re blocking them from you know
trading and freezing bank accounts and
all these things and essentially
draining them and if you have no
resources or cash flow then you can’t
really fund a war effort
and um yeah i i think this is i think
this is really scary it’s gonna be huge
i mean i
i feel for people in ukraine it’s it’s
amazing to see the citizens
taking up arms and defending their
country and their leader too by the way
and this is just a tangent i don’t care
for democrat or republican i know of
no
u.s politicians that would take up arms
and go fight on the front lines of the
battlefield to defend our country they’d
probably hit out in some mansion
somewhere
anyway that’s just my
bitching about
u.s
politicians but
no it’s um
it’s insane and i i read a statistic and
again anyone can feel free to fact check
me on this it’s early i might not have
the right numbers but i believe china um
does about six like export 60
of the grain that we that we use
and so
if we ever like get in a fight with
china they could be like all right screw
you and just shut off the grain right
and it’s like okay well now that’s 60
like that’s a huge staple of our food
yeah and um yeah it’s it’s a terrifying
reality there’s also a global water
shortage and i know that water is a
cycle but what that basically means is
that the cycle of water isn’t big enough
to sustain everyone on earth
indefinitely like there are too many
people on the planet and i don’t want to
talk about eugenics that’s not what i’m
talking about but like there are so many
people on the planet and the water cycle
is only so much it’s just yeah there’s a
lot of stuff going on it’s crazy
oh thank you for all of that frightening
stuff but yeah so i got to check out
that book confessions of an economic
hitman you read that in high school
i did i read it in high school i
actually did a paper on it too um i did
a report on it and oddly enough this is
so crazy so years you know it’s been
10 years since i graduated high school
but 12 years probably since i wrote that
paper just recently the author of that
book
went on i believe it was the
valuetainment podcast with patrick bet
david if you know of him i know him i
like his stuff yeah okay yeah so he just
recently did that and i was like holy
crap i read this dude’s book 12 years
ago so yeah it’s really interesting i
will take a look thank you for that so
one of the things that i did after being
shook again by the all-in podcast i want
to give credit where the ideas come from
is i tried to map out the rest of the
year
so i’m going to lay this out
how i see the dominoes and then the
dominoes falling and my hope
is you point out where i’m wrong
because
where i end up is not a very good spot
so
step one and again let’s be clear a
peace treaty gets signed today
all this stops right the peace treaty
the peace treaty stops these dominoes
let’s be very clear i hope it happens
today
assuming it doesn’t first and foremost
we’re already seeing it todd inflation
gets hotter
in the short term
short term being between now and six
months right it was already hot it was
already going to be a big number but it
gets hotter from here
i think that frankly is a layup
number two and this is where i hope i’m
wrong
i’m still holding to my guns that
they’re gonna rope a dope us and give us
a 50 basis point bump i just think
i just think i’m smoking crack when i
say that but i just want to i want to
keep saying it but in my step two or
second domino is the fed is weak
and they only do 25 basis points and
they do that
a few times
but by doing that they don’t nip
anything in the butt and inflation just
keeps raging
so step two the fed is weak
step three i believe sometime this year
sooner rather than later
i hope i hope it happens today peace
breaks out
my hope is we’re not still talking about
this at christmas for example
it is resolved and it’s resolved in a
peaceful way
i suspect when that happens we are going
to get another rush because it will be
good news we will probably have suffered
bad news after bad news after bad news
we will then have
euphoria and good news
and what will happen is we will go out
and increase demand into an inflationary
environment with no supply and inflation
will rage even higher
making the fed
farther and farther behind at which
point
paul volcker or i’m sorry jerome powell
either resigns
or gets fired
and they bring in a paul voker 2.0
who suddenly has to start jacking rates
by a half or a point interme weekend
raises like paul volcker did uh in the
early 80s
and
slams the u.s and likely world economy
into a deep dark recession
so
that fun journey
ahead of us uh where
please tell me i’m missing something
how does this how does this feel
yeah i mean i feel like it sucks but
you’re probably not too far off oh come
on
the inflation thing is appropriate i
think what
so i saw this thing the other day and it
was clearly posted by a young person who
is a very
good person
who’s just naive because they haven’t
lived enough and i know that’s ironic
when i say it because i’m 29
but
the person was like inflation is a myth
it’s all just corporate greed
oh yeah
right i know i know oh well and there
there is corporate greed no questions
like inflation
and inflation is a real thing though
it’s it’s the value of your currency is
being depleted because so much is being
printed like that is a real thing it’s
not a myth
and yeah we’re doing a terrible job with
it
and i think you’re right as soon as
there’s
as soon as there’s more demand i mean
that that’s pretty much what happened
last year with the with the car shortage
i mean there was a there was a
shortage of computer chips so there was
less overall cars being produced but
everyone was making stimulus checks and
interest rates were an all-time low so
there was an influx of people who just
got stimulated who wanted to buy cars
and there weren’t enough to go around so
the price of each individual car
skyrocketed
that’s basically what happened and it
will happen again so yeah i agree with
you
well thanks
again folks if you’re watching this i
shared this on my daily financial news
please tell me what i’m missing
because again
it’s
ah
i just don’t i don’t it’s it’s
yeah it’s it’s not a good feeling that’s
why i will be getting residential
properties with 30-year fixed rate debt
because when this guy comes out because
a guy or gal to be sexist but again
right this plays out
paul volcker gets fired i’m sorry paul
volcker jerome powell uh fight gets
fired or quits
we get a new person who comes in and
just takes the reins
i mean we could see rates
i mean because again all right if you
play this out war than peace and then
happiness and blah blah blah blah
and there’s all this freaking money
still sloshing around the system
i mean
i mean seriously they could they could
take the fed funds rates to five or six
percent and if the fund rate is six
percent
what’s the ten year eight
what’s the 30 or
nine and a half or ten
and again it won’t be there long
in the you know when you zoom out it’ll
be there for a year 18 months
but
that’s still gonna break stuff
it’ll break stuff and people are going
to want to buy as an alternative to
paying a ton of money in rent
no i think i think you’re absolutely
right buy as many single family homes at
cheap interest rates that’s that was
honestly one of the biggest motivators
for me to start really teaching people
the house hack stuff because it’s like
man buy a house
get some roommates but at least you have
a house live in there do it for a couple
of years that’s all you need to do
live for free on low interest and just
get a property and so
yeah i
i agree with you 100
all right well on that we are going to
close episode one because we’re gonna
get on to different topics but yeah
folks if you see a different outcome
please let me know again remember peace
breaks out today
uh this all stops so this you know this
doesn’t have to happen it could be a
fork in the road which i hope we don’t
go down jerome powell
your job is on the line buddy raise
rates by a half march 16th
uh put stop all of this you do have a
choice here that you can help stop this
so thanks for everything man
absolutely