WARNING THE HOUSING MARKET JUST CHANGED AGAIN. Listings Down, Cancelations Up, Sellers Pull Back

good morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael’s uber one rental at a

time back with the real estate

entrepreneur omar alfaro how you doing

buddy good what’s happening guys what’s

happening michael thanks for having me

on absolutely thank you for coming back

i know it’s been three weeks we were

both at an event together i had a

vacation and then

you have a new princess uh you’ve

welcomed a new princess to the family

you have a a little baby girl uh

congrats to you to your wife folks send

omar some love

what is the baby girl’s name

her name is mila capri alfaro

wow what a beautiful name beautiful name

uh it’s uh just another reminder puts

everything in perspective right

it does it truly does it’s uh you know

we work hard we we do all the things

that we do and

we um do the work and

there’s something else that shows for it

and that’s truly what it is yeah yeah

well the the first topic i want to talk

about today is the market i believe uh

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i believe i called it uh so back on july

20th i said the national association of

realtors announcement would change the

market

uh we would see buyers retreat we would

see sellers totally fomo fear missing

out you saw a wave of inventory weeks on

weeks and weeks and weeks we were

talking about your market having more

and more inventory

uh i told people as september came

that inventory would peak it would

plateau

and i am now calling for inventory to

fall heading into the year as rates rise

we are going to see a 50 crash in

transactions across the country with

some markets even worse but

let’s remind omar what market you are in

and then let’s talk about the data

because we haven’t looked in a couple

weeks yeah we’re in southern california

um and that’s hearing in california it’s

small little area called the high desert

and that consists of you know

victorville apple valley asparagus

ellendale

pinyon hills steel and oak hills barcelo

so it’s i think our population total all

of them or all cities combined probably

say seven maybe maybe even a mill you

know i’d say 700. okay all right so 700

000 folks in the high desert uh so last

time i think we spoke

uh

i think we were getting pretty close to

2 000 active listings i think but um

we’re at 16

we’re at uh we’re at almost 1600 homes

okay all right so where are we today

we’ve declined uh we’re at 15.50 we have

15 15. wow

the decline is already happening

yeah and this is the thing and even in

our area too

um when you start pricing properties a

little bit better and and less expensive

than the median

uh they’re selling a lot quicker

um that that lower end stuff so

it gets eaten up so fast so it doesn’t

have that that ability to rise

and that’s something that um i’ve been

seeing because our new listings are

coming on the market we got sold at

about 115. this is from the 22nd to the

28th okay all right so

the end of the month

um

but what’s crazy is back on markets or

60 some houses in that week

um expires not really so how many

expires let’s talk about it how many

um 15. okay but i mean six months ago

you had zero

oh yeah no we didn’t have anything

yeah so it’s all trending yeah so how

many uh cancellations

cancellations 25.

remember this is just in that week yeah

20 so that’s this is what this is where

it’s going so i’m glad we’re talking

about this because i think what’s

happening in the high desert is going to

happen to a lot of markets first off the

honey let’s sell the home let’s get peak

pricing

let’s let’s have wish pricing that’s

already happened

some of those people sold right because

you got the perfect house at the perfect

time it sells

lots of them

had nobody show up at the open house

some of them have taken a single price

cut and now what we’re seeing because

again this was july 20th so we’re six

weeks past that you’re seeing expired

start to ramp up that means they took

the full 90 days

um

we are starting to actually i guess

that’s six weeks we are starting to see

cancellations which i expect to explode

um las vegas nevada i’m talking to brian

lebo in about two hours

he said in the month of uh

july no august we’re in september now

august

they had 1700

cancellations they used to have 250.

1700 yeah crazy right like 400 percent

increase in cancellation oh my gosh you

know what that means uh people are

canceling to go buy cheaper well they’re

they’re staying put that’s what it means

they’re just staying put right because

this is listing cancellations not

purchased

only

listings that is that is i don’t know 17

1400 i forget but a big ass number of

people going here’s my wish price i

can’t get it i’m staying put

but here’s the real problem omar i

believe interest rates because

this is what we know

in june

interest rates hit six percent

and the market threw up

mortgage rates are going up right now

and have hit six percent already and

here’s the deal omar i think we’re going

to seven

that is going to cause more and more

people to pull their house off the

market and stay put they’re gonna tell

you omar i would love to sell my home

but i just can’t no because i don’t have

no money

the replacement cost is too high yeah

i’m going to stay

and and i can’t rent right why would i

rent my mortgage payments less than rent

it’s going to be rough living if you’re

only a real estate agent

if you’re only a mortgage broker you’re

going to have a rough 18 months

and honestly these next 18 months are

going to be pretty insane

yeah but investors guys like you have

multiple channels you’re the hybrid guy

you can do this you can do that i think

you’re going to have the pick of the

litter but let me just be really clear

if you’re only a real estate agent and i

don’t mean that to sound negative but if

that is your only income stream

you might want to skill up and try to do

some other things

let me touch on that though for for a

second michael um

you just mentioned the word skill up and

and you’re right about that i mean you

can still be a a really good you know

real estate professional if you have

that one

avenue or that new rep that one revenue

stream

um

but what got you to where your success

is now isn’t going to get you to that

next spot

and and perfect example of you saying

that is because

you have to be able to be creative and

think outside the box because otherwise

i mean you’re going to be it’s going to

be an uphill battle with sellers first

of which because they’re gonna still

want that wish pricing and you’re

probably gonna take the listing because

you’re not skilled enough to let them

know that hey sorry it’s not gonna sell

at this price

but that also goes for

um

you know you starting out as being an

investor and you’re flipping your own

property um and then you’re pushing the

envelope to try to get as much as you

can when it’s not about that time right

now it’s about turning and burning as

fast as humanly possible because your

competition is just going to be

increased

and then with that seven percent

interest

that’s probably coming here shortly yeah

that’s going to be something else that’s

going to slow it way down and i’m taking

into account too like if i’m buying

something

i need to buy something so like it’s got

to be

very it can’t be a full gut or a full

remodel it’s got to be lipstick right on

a nice property speed where it’s maybe

not 80 90 000 profit margins but maybe

they’re 35

maybe they’re 40. yeah and it’s faster

yeah so again it’s kind of video number

one omar i think we’re going to do a

video on flipping next so let’s save

that kind of deep dive but basically the

market in the high desert is plateauing

and inventory is shrinking uh again i

love i love to look into the future my

current crystal ball which is as broken

as yours is saying uh you’re going to

have less inventory in a month than you

have today

you’ll have less inventory three months

from now than you have today some of

this is seasonality no doubt winter is

slower

but here’s the deal i think the real

problem is going to be interest rates if

interest rates get to seven if or when

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the seller math

gets worse

more sellers aren’t gonna sell

yeah gonna be crazy so omar it’s gonna

be insane honestly if uh if somebody

wanted to follow you you have spun up

another amazing ig page what is it

uh guys follow me at invest with omar uh

that’s gonna be my main page i still

have both of them the omar alpara but

the investment domain is the one that

we’re starting to put more content out

there and stuff so follow me there

awesome and what we’re going to talk

about in video number two is actually

one of his posts is flipping dead so

again follow him at invest with omar on

instagram thanks buddy thank you

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