good morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael’s uber one rental at a
time back with the real estate
entrepreneur omar alfaro how you doing
buddy good what’s happening guys what’s
happening michael thanks for having me
on absolutely thank you for coming back
i know it’s been three weeks we were
both at an event together i had a
vacation and then
you have a new princess uh you’ve
welcomed a new princess to the family
you have a a little baby girl uh
congrats to you to your wife folks send
omar some love
what is the baby girl’s name
her name is mila capri alfaro
wow what a beautiful name beautiful name
uh it’s uh just another reminder puts
everything in perspective right
it does it truly does it’s uh you know
we work hard we we do all the things
that we do and
we um do the work and
there’s something else that shows for it
and that’s truly what it is yeah yeah
well the the first topic i want to talk
about today is the market i believe uh
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i believe i called it uh so back on july
20th i said the national association of
realtors announcement would change the
market
uh we would see buyers retreat we would
see sellers totally fomo fear missing
out you saw a wave of inventory weeks on
weeks and weeks and weeks we were
talking about your market having more
and more inventory
uh i told people as september came
that inventory would peak it would
plateau
and i am now calling for inventory to
fall heading into the year as rates rise
we are going to see a 50 crash in
transactions across the country with
some markets even worse but
let’s remind omar what market you are in
and then let’s talk about the data
because we haven’t looked in a couple
weeks yeah we’re in southern california
um and that’s hearing in california it’s
small little area called the high desert
and that consists of you know
victorville apple valley asparagus
ellendale
pinyon hills steel and oak hills barcelo
so it’s i think our population total all
of them or all cities combined probably
say seven maybe maybe even a mill you
know i’d say 700. okay all right so 700
000 folks in the high desert uh so last
time i think we spoke
uh
i think we were getting pretty close to
2 000 active listings i think but um
we’re at 16
we’re at uh we’re at almost 1600 homes
okay all right so where are we today
we’ve declined uh we’re at 15.50 we have
15 15. wow
the decline is already happening
yeah and this is the thing and even in
our area too
um when you start pricing properties a
little bit better and and less expensive
than the median
uh they’re selling a lot quicker
um that that lower end stuff so
it gets eaten up so fast so it doesn’t
have that that ability to rise
and that’s something that um i’ve been
seeing because our new listings are
coming on the market we got sold at
about 115. this is from the 22nd to the
28th okay all right so
the end of the month
um
but what’s crazy is back on markets or
60 some houses in that week
um expires not really so how many
expires let’s talk about it how many
um 15. okay but i mean six months ago
you had zero
oh yeah no we didn’t have anything
yeah so it’s all trending yeah so how
many uh cancellations
cancellations 25.
remember this is just in that week yeah
20 so that’s this is what this is where
it’s going so i’m glad we’re talking
about this because i think what’s
happening in the high desert is going to
happen to a lot of markets first off the
honey let’s sell the home let’s get peak
pricing
let’s let’s have wish pricing that’s
already happened
some of those people sold right because
you got the perfect house at the perfect
time it sells
lots of them
had nobody show up at the open house
some of them have taken a single price
cut and now what we’re seeing because
again this was july 20th so we’re six
weeks past that you’re seeing expired
start to ramp up that means they took
the full 90 days
um
we are starting to actually i guess
that’s six weeks we are starting to see
cancellations which i expect to explode
um las vegas nevada i’m talking to brian
lebo in about two hours
he said in the month of uh
july no august we’re in september now
august
they had 1700
cancellations they used to have 250.
1700 yeah crazy right like 400 percent
increase in cancellation oh my gosh you
know what that means uh people are
canceling to go buy cheaper well they’re
they’re staying put that’s what it means
they’re just staying put right because
this is listing cancellations not
purchased
only
listings that is that is i don’t know 17
1400 i forget but a big ass number of
people going here’s my wish price i
can’t get it i’m staying put
but here’s the real problem omar i
believe interest rates because
this is what we know
in june
interest rates hit six percent
and the market threw up
mortgage rates are going up right now
and have hit six percent already and
here’s the deal omar i think we’re going
to seven
that is going to cause more and more
people to pull their house off the
market and stay put they’re gonna tell
you omar i would love to sell my home
but i just can’t no because i don’t have
no money
the replacement cost is too high yeah
i’m going to stay
and and i can’t rent right why would i
rent my mortgage payments less than rent
it’s going to be rough living if you’re
only a real estate agent
if you’re only a mortgage broker you’re
going to have a rough 18 months
and honestly these next 18 months are
going to be pretty insane
yeah but investors guys like you have
multiple channels you’re the hybrid guy
you can do this you can do that i think
you’re going to have the pick of the
litter but let me just be really clear
if you’re only a real estate agent and i
don’t mean that to sound negative but if
that is your only income stream
you might want to skill up and try to do
some other things
let me touch on that though for for a
second michael um
you just mentioned the word skill up and
and you’re right about that i mean you
can still be a a really good you know
real estate professional if you have
that one
avenue or that new rep that one revenue
stream
um
but what got you to where your success
is now isn’t going to get you to that
next spot
and and perfect example of you saying
that is because
you have to be able to be creative and
think outside the box because otherwise
i mean you’re going to be it’s going to
be an uphill battle with sellers first
of which because they’re gonna still
want that wish pricing and you’re
probably gonna take the listing because
you’re not skilled enough to let them
know that hey sorry it’s not gonna sell
at this price
but that also goes for
um
you know you starting out as being an
investor and you’re flipping your own
property um and then you’re pushing the
envelope to try to get as much as you
can when it’s not about that time right
now it’s about turning and burning as
fast as humanly possible because your
competition is just going to be
increased
and then with that seven percent
interest
that’s probably coming here shortly yeah
that’s going to be something else that’s
going to slow it way down and i’m taking
into account too like if i’m buying
something
i need to buy something so like it’s got
to be
very it can’t be a full gut or a full
remodel it’s got to be lipstick right on
a nice property speed where it’s maybe
not 80 90 000 profit margins but maybe
they’re 35
maybe they’re 40. yeah and it’s faster
yeah so again it’s kind of video number
one omar i think we’re going to do a
video on flipping next so let’s save
that kind of deep dive but basically the
market in the high desert is plateauing
and inventory is shrinking uh again i
love i love to look into the future my
current crystal ball which is as broken
as yours is saying uh you’re going to
have less inventory in a month than you
have today
you’ll have less inventory three months
from now than you have today some of
this is seasonality no doubt winter is
slower
but here’s the deal i think the real
problem is going to be interest rates if
interest rates get to seven if or when
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the seller math
gets worse
more sellers aren’t gonna sell
yeah gonna be crazy so omar it’s gonna
be insane honestly if uh if somebody
wanted to follow you you have spun up
another amazing ig page what is it
uh guys follow me at invest with omar uh
that’s gonna be my main page i still
have both of them the omar alpara but
the investment domain is the one that
we’re starting to put more content out
there and stuff so follow me there
awesome and what we’re going to talk
about in video number two is actually
one of his posts is flipping dead so
again follow him at invest with omar on
instagram thanks buddy thank you