WARNING Rates on 30 Year Money Now over 4%!! Will Real Estate Crash? Time for ARM? 90% Cash Out?

Video Closed Captioning:

good morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael zuber one rental at a time

and i’m actually very thankful that we

get to speak to this gentleman today on

friday versus our normal talks on

wednesday because something crazy

happened on thursday how you doing matt

i’m doing pretty good mike how you doing

i i’m a mortgage broker and i survived

i survived the 7.5 inflation reading and

i’m here

in person yeah well first and foremost

you’ve helped so many people by your if

you like it lock it you’ve saved some

people significant pain so i hope so

kudos to you for that uh but yeah i

gotta ask what what so what i have seen


there’s now a 99 chance that the fed

will raise rates 50 basis points in

march that went from zero to five

percent to 24

to 99

wow guessing

that it impacted mortgage rates


oh for sure for sure yeah you know that

that that cpi reading and then just

everything the fed continues to say and


yesterday was an interesting day the

funny part is is

you know for as much freak out as people

do in the short term i priced a couple

loans to win the contract i’m like we’re

still locking people at 399.

it’s it’s it’s not 2.62 i was just

looking at this to see like how far

we’ve moved um and i think on on

somebody’s average um one of these

aggregators that shows like the average


august was two six


and now we’re 4.02

whoo we’re over

right we’ve we’ve gone like


one point you know one in three one and

three eighths i think is something um

you know that’s that’s a pretty dramatic

for a six month time frame um a lot of

that coming in last six weeks yeah but

you know it’s more of the same story for

me i think where

week on week i’m telling people

the forecast calls for higher rates

we’re not going to get and that’s the

the problem is is that people look

in the past and they go oh we’ve seen it

go up and then come back down and up

we’ve seen these rebounds

there’s nothing pointing to we’re going

to get a rebound and so literally all

the commentary i read and everybody who

i follow says listen

another day it’s prudent to lock do not

float hoping for you know even this

morning mortgage bonds opened up like 20

basis points better

virtually no lender passed on that

savings uh and and reprice for the

better and then as it slid

like 20 basis points to get like to

break even on the day a couple of them

reprice for the worse and so um you know

it’s it’s going to be interesting to see

i still think that you know the demand

is there

and there’s plenty of willing and able

buyers but you know i recorded a video

this morning

speaking to home buyers and just

reminding them

if home ownership is your goal if you

know having a place of your own that you


remodel that you can paint the walls

whatever color you want

all the tax benefits the debt pay down

the appreciation

all that stuff is the same at three

seven five and four percent in four and

a quarter none of that changes


if anything changes it’s you saying

what can i afford on a monthly basis and

then having to back into

your purchase price target right and

maybe it’s not 480 maybe it’s 445. but

all the other reasons you want to become

a homeowner all the other reasons that

people in one rental at a time want to

buy rental properties and build wealth

all that stuff holds true

at really any interest rate right you

know i i’m sure that me and you and

other people that are part of the

channel have bought stuff at seven

percent and eight percent

and this worked out okay yeah i i again

i bought deals at 12 some of the

interest i paid private or hard money

i’d be hard money is over 12 so

just got to do the deals that make sense

it’s always a great day to do a great

deal don’t get fixated on sub three it’s

you missed it it’s not there anymore

right yeah there was there was something

there was a there was an optimal blue

which is like a pricing engine

um and so they have like aggregated data


billions in in mortgage production

and god where’d it go

i had it i want to pull it up just for

reference in my own brain


conforming lock average was 4.0 4.07 oh


granted some people have a 660 credit

score and so they’re four and a quarter

some people have perfect credit and they

might be three eight seven five but for

all intents and purposes we’re at about

four percent um yeah that was quick yeah

that was very quick it feels like only

yesterday we were sitting around on

christmas thinking will we dip back

below three percent or will we continue

to go up because they were probably i

think they were probably about three and

a quarter around christmas time and yeah

those those rates are long gone unless

you want to pay lots of points you know

if you like it lock it i uh i’m glad

that we’ve been doing this um

again p i mean you’ve seen it right bank

of america citigroup calling for seven

rate increases this year which takes

funds from basically zero to one in

three quarters

let’s just play this out together and

again we don’t know what the spreads

will be but let’s just say the fed funds

is two percent for easy math today it’s


so if that’s two percent the two year

probably has to go to

three and a quarter three and three


the ten year probably has to go to

probably has to go to four

four and an eight wow that and that

means the 30 year is five and a half am

i planning that out right

yeah i mean i think

when when you said two and then ten i

was thinking that the the ten might be

three sevenish

but still

you know the the difference between the

10-year treasury and and and the 30-year

mortgage is about 1.7 percent so if

we’re 3-7-3-8 on the 10-year treasury

we’re five and a half percent on the

30-year um mortgage and uh

yeah so so people today

are crying about four


wait till five right yeah if you don’t

like four you ain’t gonna like five so

so so get it while it’s hot and and uh

you know it’s

i hate to use the word historically

because i feel like yeah we’re just like

oh this guy’s in mortgage and all he

wants to do is say it’s always the sun

is always shining and you know but like

when you really look at that

like i had somebody reach out to me that

had no idea about rates at all they’re

like what are rates i said about four

percent uh is that good or bad and i

said it’s good and they said well what’s

the lowest it’s been i said two and a

half they said what’s the highest it’s


  1. and so you know and it was funny

because it was a funny conversation with

somebody who really didn’t know at all

and they were asking me like well when

was it 18 i go i don’t know early 80s

well when was it two and a half

yeah last summer um and so

um you know i showed them the whole big

chart and it gets you to think right

like okay four percent is a pretty good

interest rate um one thing i want to

mention before i forget is that we’ve

talked about this a lot over the last

six months but it’s going to be

game on more than ever for these

mortgage companies who see shrinking

refinance volume maybe even less

purchase contracts or or or

you know applications for purchase

they are gonna do whatever it takes to

win business and i’ve seen some shady

shady stuff like um somebody on my team

got a mailer and they’re like man this

is just deceptive right um and it

doesn’t surprise me you know all the you

know credit trigger leads where you you

fill out a mortgage application get your

credit pulled eight mortgage companies

call you and you’re like why are they

calling me well because the credit

agency sold your data because mortgage

companies are desperate to get business

they’re gonna call they’re gonna promise

you the world um you know people just do


um i don’t know if you noticed one of

the things i made a

either tick tock or

instagram or both

about rocket yeah i saw that 3.375

and then you go down and you look in in

box a which you know in your course that

has my info in there i say look at box a

and lender fees that matters

there’s 39 000 in lender fees


as much as me me and you would love to


that somebody wouldn’t fall for

something like this

it happens right

they look and they go 3.375 great

and then they end up putting 40 000

um of that home’s equity in fees

onto their onto their refinance which is

very detrimental not good

yeah so so beware make sure you’re

talking to somebody you like and trust

that’s that’s my advice and and i talk

to people every day i’m in the glorious

position where i’m not to beg anybody

for business if you’re not working with

me great but work with somebody who you

like and trust and get good advice from

somebody who’s you know got a reputation

to protect is building a long-term

business and not just in a call center

have to plug in 100 applications before

the end of the week or you know we’re

not going to reach our bonus or whatever

the heck they’re working on

yeah i’ve been telling consumers and

investors this is perhaps better time

than ever to work with a mortgage broker

you trust i trust you and


have the conversation reach out see what

makes sense again always a great day to

do a great deal nothing wrong with four


nothing wrong with five percent just

make sure the deals work and again where

do you want them to reach out go to

greatmortgagebroker.com yeah let us know

where you’re at and how we can help and

and like mike said you just you’ve got

to do the work and you’ve got to work

the numbers um that’s one of the things

that you want to do as an investor is

get yourself pre-approved know your

numbers from the lending side because

without those numbers

you’re you know

driving blind out there in the real

estate investing market and i see people

do it all the time i don’t advise it

right you get get a good handle on your

numbers before you start going out and

uh just listening to uh somebody to open

house go this is a great investor deal

trust me this is a good trust me trust


yeah crazy stuff thanks buddy yep

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