WARNING Rates Are Going Up – If you Like it Lock It. PCE Highest 1990, New Unemployment Claims 1969

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good morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael zuber one minute till out

of time back with this wednesday expert

matt the mortgage guy how you doing sir

i’m doing great mike thanksgiving week

so it’s a short week

before i forget to say it man i’m

grateful for you and the oh rap

community and just being able to do this

it’s fun man i enjoy it a lot oh yeah i

enjoy it a lot of fun i enjoy giving

back and uh

over the year we’ve been doing this you

have helped a lot of one rental at a

time family so i appreciate you for all

you do so uh thank you for that it’s

it’s always fun to talk to you i learned

a lot so it’s great yeah i hope so

hopefully we’re helping folks out well

you know you and i have been talking

about this for about eight maybe even 12

weeks now if you like it lock it you

know there were a couple of days in

there where weights went down and i got

some of the i got some of the comments

you’re wrong you’re wrong i’m like just

wait

just wait these are all dominoes they

are clearly falling and i can’t tell you

anything about a day but the trend is

clear rates are going up inflation is

horrible the taper will accelerate rates

will be rising next year

man there’s a lot of and then today

inflation another inflation gauge

highest since 1990 the fed’s favorite

gauge for inflation called pce personal

consumption expenditures

4.1

it is bad out there matt it is just bad

yeah for sure and like yeah the the core

rate was 4.1 i think the headline

inflation number was like five percent

yeah the the biggest it’s been in 30

plus years um you know what’s funny too

when it comes to rates and we’ll talk

rates because that’s my

lane know i’m i don’t i don’t have a

crystal ball nobody in the mortgage

industry has a crystal ball but we can

look at certain things and say this is

probably gonna cause some upward

pressure on on rates this is probably

gonna do this if i do that you know i

even vacillated a little bit over these

six to nine months where i said ah you

know what maybe this happens maybe rates

don’t and

really over the last four to six weeks

or maybe six to eight weeks my message

has been cleared like rates are going up

i’m certain of it and i’m usually not

certain of anything and i’m straight

forward where i say listen you know

change every day there there’s factors

that we don’t know that could come in

the future what not but i’ve been like

it locket like a really strong voice

about like rates are getting worse and

like you said

daily fluctuations where it might get

better 21 basis points one day but the

trend line is obvious when i look at

that you know

candlestick formation type stuff and i

don’t get too technical

rates are getting steadily worse and i

think that continues well i think

there’s a lot of things i just want

people to realize the reason i can i i

confidently say that rates are going up

you and i’ve been saying it for eight

weeks is

there are things that

drive rates one of them is inflation and

again we just talked about the latest

pce reading but that is the latest in

the succession of 20 or 30 metrics that

all say inflation is worse since 1990.

you know you can get one of those as a

blip the data could be dirty it could be

a holiday week whatever it is

okay but the trend is clear

inflation at the consumer level

is the worst it’s been in 30 years next

i don’t know if you saw this this

morning oh my god unemployment claims

lowest

since 1969

right like under 200 000 yeah 199k

initial claims the job market is getting

better which is all good right people

getting jobs people i mean these are

good things but it also means

that the fed has got to get out of the

market one of the things that i think

will happen

it may not happen in december because

they just

they don’t want to mess with it but by

january the fed will be accelerating the

taper is my opinion

and they need to get because one thing i

know for sure is they will not raise

rates until the taper is done i believe

that is true but they could drastically

accelerate the taper what do you think

yeah i think so and i think you’re right

this is like you know they don’t want

you know a knee-jerk reaction from the

market they don’t want to do anything

that could you know

cause tail spin or or too much

disruption but you know if they start to

taper like okay you know the market can

handle this let’s let’s double down you

know so that that that taper doesn’t

spread out until june or july of next

year and that’s when they you know tick

up the fed funds rate so um i’m in

agreement with with everything you said

and um because of what we’re seeing in

inflation you know another thing that’s

upward pressure on mortgage interest

rates right yeah um

i think i think one of the positive

pieces of news because there was like

data galore this morning and i just um

poked in and watched a few of my

favorite mortgage folks with all this

data and how it relates to the mortgage

industry sure the

um

wage inflation yeah up like 11 so in

telling it you know it’s not all bad

folks if you look at you know home price

appreciation i think to my yourself well

this is you know a disaster no one’s

gonna be able to afford homes you know

if home prices go up

12 14 15 in any given market but wages

are up 11

those people that are seeing

you know 10 to 15 higher wages your

whole wage isn’t going towards your

mortgage exactly that’s something to

think about too if if one-fourth of your

wage is going

towards your mortgage

you know that like on let’s call it 10

000 a month okay so your mortgage is

2500 a month

if the mortgage payment goes up to 27.50

that’s 10 percent

250 dollars more but you got a 10

increase at worst you you work you went

from 10 000 to 11 000 exactly right so

you got a thousand dollar raise so well

that’s what that’s why i keep telling

people it’s the affordability index all

these nonsense channels pointing at

prices you’re wrong all of you people

pointing at

uh payment like it’s the like interest

rate are wrong it’s the entire

collection in it we i’ve been screaming

for six months we are in a wage

inflation cycle and frankly wage

inflation a lot of the 1970s is really

good for real estate real estate doubled

because incomes went up 90

in an environment where rates went up

300 basis points folks this has happened

before

it’s it’s it’s hard i mean people scream

from the rooftops about about home price

appreciation but i mean where are all

the picketers and where are all the

signs this bacon went up 300 you know

yeah there’s like never buy bacon ever

again you know and boycott oscar meyer

like that’s not happening like things

get more expensive over time it’s kind

of a

natural thing for the economy yeah so in

the end folks we are an inflationary

spiral wage inflation i believe

again i’ve said it before i want to say

it again i think 2020 when people look

back will be the decade of wage

inflation much like oil was the thing

that caused much of the 70s pain because

again wages going up in leisure and

retail and all these other things will

impact the entire income stack so it’s a

good thing it’s

the employee needs the power they’ve had

they have more power today than they’ve

had my entire adult life which is which

is awesome so

if people want to talk about rates and

rates uh like it lock it how should they

reach out to you go to

greatmortgagebroker.com every single day

we we get better and better at you know

serving folks at a high level and lead

intake and whatnot so no matter where

you’re at what you’re looking to do

greatmortgagebroker.com you’ll get

contact with my team when i did the live

on monday i had a couple people in there

you know talk to kaylee great talk to

allison great

we’ve got a large team dedicated to you

know the orac community and anybody else

that finds us um out there on the

interwebs uh making sure we’re we’re

providing high level service which for

some people is just advice right yeah i

can’t tell you how many

texts and emails and and forwarded

messages and dms and all the other stuff

i get where um you know a simple 15 or

20 seconds for me saying yeah that looks

fine or i don’t know what heck that

builder’s doing

we’re happy to help and we’re going to

try to help as many people as possible

again orat community one rental at a

time community he’s now helping 50

states so it’s not california owning we

we were kind of spoiled when he was

california only

now all 50 states look them up one more

time what’s the site

greatmortgagebroker.com and i think

we’re licensed in 44 but the other

six

were referring out the best of the best

and and i had somebody call me out on

that said hey listen i was in indiana

you’re not licensed there i’m going to

give you a couple of the top mortgage

brokers in indiana you know we’ve got a

network where

if we can’t help you we’re gonna we’re

gonna get you with the best you can yeah

you will take care of them yeah perfect

thanks buddy

 

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