Video Closed Caption:
good morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael zuber one minute till out
of time back with this wednesday expert
matt the mortgage guy how you doing sir
i’m doing great mike thanksgiving week
so it’s a short week
before i forget to say it man i’m
grateful for you and the oh rap
community and just being able to do this
it’s fun man i enjoy it a lot oh yeah i
enjoy it a lot of fun i enjoy giving
back and uh
over the year we’ve been doing this you
have helped a lot of one rental at a
time family so i appreciate you for all
you do so uh thank you for that it’s
it’s always fun to talk to you i learned
a lot so it’s great yeah i hope so
hopefully we’re helping folks out well
you know you and i have been talking
about this for about eight maybe even 12
weeks now if you like it lock it you
know there were a couple of days in
there where weights went down and i got
some of the i got some of the comments
you’re wrong you’re wrong i’m like just
wait
just wait these are all dominoes they
are clearly falling and i can’t tell you
anything about a day but the trend is
clear rates are going up inflation is
horrible the taper will accelerate rates
will be rising next year
man there’s a lot of and then today
inflation another inflation gauge
highest since 1990 the fed’s favorite
gauge for inflation called pce personal
consumption expenditures
4.1
it is bad out there matt it is just bad
yeah for sure and like yeah the the core
rate was 4.1 i think the headline
inflation number was like five percent
yeah the the biggest it’s been in 30
plus years um you know what’s funny too
when it comes to rates and we’ll talk
rates because that’s my
lane know i’m i don’t i don’t have a
crystal ball nobody in the mortgage
industry has a crystal ball but we can
look at certain things and say this is
probably gonna cause some upward
pressure on on rates this is probably
gonna do this if i do that you know i
even vacillated a little bit over these
six to nine months where i said ah you
know what maybe this happens maybe rates
don’t and
really over the last four to six weeks
or maybe six to eight weeks my message
has been cleared like rates are going up
i’m certain of it and i’m usually not
certain of anything and i’m straight
forward where i say listen you know
change every day there there’s factors
that we don’t know that could come in
the future what not but i’ve been like
it locket like a really strong voice
about like rates are getting worse and
like you said
daily fluctuations where it might get
better 21 basis points one day but the
trend line is obvious when i look at
that you know
candlestick formation type stuff and i
don’t get too technical
rates are getting steadily worse and i
think that continues well i think
there’s a lot of things i just want
people to realize the reason i can i i
confidently say that rates are going up
you and i’ve been saying it for eight
weeks is
there are things that
drive rates one of them is inflation and
again we just talked about the latest
pce reading but that is the latest in
the succession of 20 or 30 metrics that
all say inflation is worse since 1990.
you know you can get one of those as a
blip the data could be dirty it could be
a holiday week whatever it is
okay but the trend is clear
inflation at the consumer level
is the worst it’s been in 30 years next
i don’t know if you saw this this
morning oh my god unemployment claims
lowest
since 1969
right like under 200 000 yeah 199k
initial claims the job market is getting
better which is all good right people
getting jobs people i mean these are
good things but it also means
that the fed has got to get out of the
market one of the things that i think
will happen
it may not happen in december because
they just
they don’t want to mess with it but by
january the fed will be accelerating the
taper is my opinion
and they need to get because one thing i
know for sure is they will not raise
rates until the taper is done i believe
that is true but they could drastically
accelerate the taper what do you think
yeah i think so and i think you’re right
this is like you know they don’t want
you know a knee-jerk reaction from the
market they don’t want to do anything
that could you know
cause tail spin or or too much
disruption but you know if they start to
taper like okay you know the market can
handle this let’s let’s double down you
know so that that that taper doesn’t
spread out until june or july of next
year and that’s when they you know tick
up the fed funds rate so um i’m in
agreement with with everything you said
and um because of what we’re seeing in
inflation you know another thing that’s
upward pressure on mortgage interest
rates right yeah um
i think i think one of the positive
pieces of news because there was like
data galore this morning and i just um
poked in and watched a few of my
favorite mortgage folks with all this
data and how it relates to the mortgage
industry sure the
um
wage inflation yeah up like 11 so in
telling it you know it’s not all bad
folks if you look at you know home price
appreciation i think to my yourself well
this is you know a disaster no one’s
gonna be able to afford homes you know
if home prices go up
12 14 15 in any given market but wages
are up 11
those people that are seeing
you know 10 to 15 higher wages your
whole wage isn’t going towards your
mortgage exactly that’s something to
think about too if if one-fourth of your
wage is going
towards your mortgage
you know that like on let’s call it 10
000 a month okay so your mortgage is
2500 a month
if the mortgage payment goes up to 27.50
that’s 10 percent
250 dollars more but you got a 10
increase at worst you you work you went
from 10 000 to 11 000 exactly right so
you got a thousand dollar raise so well
that’s what that’s why i keep telling
people it’s the affordability index all
these nonsense channels pointing at
prices you’re wrong all of you people
pointing at
uh payment like it’s the like interest
rate are wrong it’s the entire
collection in it we i’ve been screaming
for six months we are in a wage
inflation cycle and frankly wage
inflation a lot of the 1970s is really
good for real estate real estate doubled
because incomes went up 90
in an environment where rates went up
300 basis points folks this has happened
before
it’s it’s it’s hard i mean people scream
from the rooftops about about home price
appreciation but i mean where are all
the picketers and where are all the
signs this bacon went up 300 you know
yeah there’s like never buy bacon ever
again you know and boycott oscar meyer
like that’s not happening like things
get more expensive over time it’s kind
of a
natural thing for the economy yeah so in
the end folks we are an inflationary
spiral wage inflation i believe
again i’ve said it before i want to say
it again i think 2020 when people look
back will be the decade of wage
inflation much like oil was the thing
that caused much of the 70s pain because
again wages going up in leisure and
retail and all these other things will
impact the entire income stack so it’s a
good thing it’s
the employee needs the power they’ve had
they have more power today than they’ve
had my entire adult life which is which
is awesome so
if people want to talk about rates and
rates uh like it lock it how should they
reach out to you go to
greatmortgagebroker.com every single day
we we get better and better at you know
serving folks at a high level and lead
intake and whatnot so no matter where
you’re at what you’re looking to do
greatmortgagebroker.com you’ll get
contact with my team when i did the live
on monday i had a couple people in there
you know talk to kaylee great talk to
allison great
we’ve got a large team dedicated to you
know the orac community and anybody else
that finds us um out there on the
interwebs uh making sure we’re we’re
providing high level service which for
some people is just advice right yeah i
can’t tell you how many
texts and emails and and forwarded
messages and dms and all the other stuff
i get where um you know a simple 15 or
20 seconds for me saying yeah that looks
fine or i don’t know what heck that
builder’s doing
we’re happy to help and we’re going to
try to help as many people as possible
again orat community one rental at a
time community he’s now helping 50
states so it’s not california owning we
we were kind of spoiled when he was
california only
now all 50 states look them up one more
time what’s the site
greatmortgagebroker.com and i think
we’re licensed in 44 but the other
six
were referring out the best of the best
and and i had somebody call me out on
that said hey listen i was in indiana
you’re not licensed there i’m going to
give you a couple of the top mortgage
brokers in indiana you know we’ve got a
network where
if we can’t help you we’re gonna we’re
gonna get you with the best you can yeah
you will take care of them yeah perfect
thanks buddy