Video Closed Captioning:
good morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael zuber1 until that time we
have the one and only the man of las
vegas brian liba how you doing man great
thank you so much for having me on hope
you guys enjoyed part one yeah you
should be in for good ride part one is
um if i were to summarize the party’s
over uh the cool kid left he’s got his
girl he’s gone
and uh there’s a lot of people still at
the party
but you should be leaving right now uh
so what i want to do is i want to pick
your brain on three topics one let’s
just talk to other real estate agents in
vegas if they’ve been in the game less
than 10 years they’ve only known one
market let’s just have an honest
conversation with them two if you are an
investor or maybe looking for a second
home in vegas like the lumberjack let’s
talk about what we would advise and then
three if you’re looking to be a
first-time homeowner in vegas what would
we recommend so um
let’s go through them let’s start with
ages what what would you tell a real
estate agent’s got 10 years or less on
them about what they are about to hit
not sure
better to like let’s start with the
consumer homeowner first and then we can
talk investors then finally we’ll talk
about agents and what they need to
acclimate so all right homeowner first
time homebuyer probably what below 500
entry level home
yeah so the well the median price in las
vegas right now is 485 000 okay so below
that um
i mean there’s really nothing below 300
so entry level is going to be three to
five really
so that so that person fha va maybe
first-time homebuyer uh what what would
you tell them today so the truth is this
one look i can prognosticate all day
long and hold my crystal ball and say i
am smart i’m successful listen to me but
the truth the truth is that no one i
don’t care who you are is going to be
able to predict
just how
bad this may be you know we might have a
five percent correction in values
something could trigger that we could
see a 30
devaluation the truth is at this point
it’s
irrefutable the direction that we’re
going let’s just not play this game we
know the direction that we’re going and
it has officially started
now what’s important is reading the tea
leaves to see how bad it’s going to
become and that is going to occur very
very quickly i think in the next month
we’re going to really test this market
so
it’s going to happen how severe no one
knows yet it’s too early that’s pretty
arrogant to say but as a homeowner
here’s my true advice you know it’s
it depends on your status your position
and your goals it’s not a time to
necessarily freak out yeah it doesn’t
feel good if your home was worth a
million dollars and now it’s worth 700
000 it’s not a good feeling but the
truth of the matter is this timing the
market is one of the most difficult
things there is to do so and you have to
understand
selling your home and bailing out right
now
on the hopes that we’re going to have a
correction and then you can buy back in
and capitalize
you know that that might not be the best
bet personally i’m not going to do that
i have the capability to do it very very
easily and i have no desire to do that
and the reason is this if you think that
you’re going to sell your house and buy
back in
the basically the gamble that you’re
making is let’s say 15
if the market doesn’t decrease more than
15 i don’t see the point in you doing it
and the reason is this
any time you buy and sell a home you’re
basically gonna leave 10 of your equity
on the table it costs money to sell your
home it costs money to buy a new home
especially if you’re getting a mortgage
and then no one buys a new home and then
doesn’t spend some extra money getting
that home into
the position that they wanted to be in
so let’s just say it’s ten percent it’s
going to cost you ten percent just to
make that move
then
i’m just giving you five percent for
your time obviously you know this could
take years let’s say it does go down 30
percent people forget that the huge
crash in 2008 lasted three years yeah it
wasn’t like
prices crashed overnight and then we
started rebounding it took three years
to bottom out so who knows how long this
correction will take
so
if you are renting you’re losing your
tax deduction if it’s applicable et
cetera et cetera so for me it’s not even
worth your time unless you truly believe
and think that the home that you want to
buy is going to drop more than 15
if you really believe that the home that
you’re targeting is going to go down by
more than 15
yeah sure cash out sit on the sidelines
and go back we also got to remember you
may have tax implications there’s no
damn point paying taxes on your owner
occupied property
if
that new property is going to go down
substantially so again
my advice is not
one-sided
it depends on your personal situation if
you were if you were going to sell
anyways next year you know what probably
best to cash out now and just rent until
you’re ready to make that move
if you’re sitting there forever just sit
there’s going to be waves
your house is not a piggy bank just
pay it off write it out yeah so
yeah two i have two thoughts because
again i think about the first time home
buyer a lot right i have a lot of them
on my channel that follow it so there’s
a couple of things first off that person
is going to time the market i would tell
them
do the math not only is it 15 but you
are very likely selling an asset that
has a three percent mortgage on it and
you’ll be buying into an asset that has
a six percent mortgage on it
okay got my asset she’s cheaper but i
paid the bank more
is that really the equation we want to
do today so again do the math that’s why
i think a lot of supply is not going to
show up because the people are going to
realize where am i going to go
right it’s this this that’s an asset but
back to the first time home buyer
uh i’m sure vegas is like most marketers
i follow and i get uh information on fha
and va buyers have had no chance the
last two years cash buyers came in
they just couldn’t compete
so what i would tell fha and va buyers
is your time is coming
i would also say
time to get aggressive i just did a
video with a mortgage broker
where basically they’re now uh or i
would advise if you’re an fha or va
buyer get this seller to pony up eight
nine ten thousand dollars in fees
basically points to buy down your rate
we did an example where maybe 30 year
money was at six and an eighth you get
them to buy you down to five and a
quarter why not
again you have the power today the buyer
is scarce the sellers are freaking out
don’t dude if you have an agent today
telling you to pay list price get a
freaking new agent right this is not
that market anymore be aggressive get
the seller to buy it’s what home
builders do home builders are buying
down rates all the time get a seller to
give you 10k and credit back to buy down
your rate 30-year money all day long
what do you think buy down your rate and
for a lot of first-time home buyers if
you’re barely barely holding on and you
barely have enough to make the down
payment
this is normal in a normal market you
can just ask the seller to pay your
closing costs for exactly typical home
time first buyer your uh your closing
costs can be about three percent
not you know it may be a shock to the
system for new agents and for sellers
but at the end of the day pretty normal
yeah i mean either you want to sell your
house or you don’t so
you know a couple grand below list price
and three percent for closing costs it
may not sound good today it’s gonna
sound fantastic a month from now i
totally agree that’s a great that’s a
great great great point because in a
normal market i do that kind of stuff
all the time it’s just been
uh
it’s just been
it’s been a couple years i’ve been a
fuel attempt for the last few years it’s
just not gonna happen yeah but that’s
gonna really be coming back i love that
so that’s first time home buyers again
you should be excited don’t stretch
don’t do anything stupid and again
please get your sellers to buy your rate
down why not three quarters of a percent
on 30-year money that will make a
difference the other thing is if you can
afford
to to eat the six percent depending on
your situation you know a lot of people
do believe that you know by quarter two
next year rates will be back into the
force so
you know depending on your situation
it’s a gamble but you might say hey pay
my closing costs that way you have less
capital to come out of pocket with and
then you can refinance in six months a
year whatever when rates do come back
down that’s another option yep so
there’s a first-time home buyers uh i
think your time is coming and again
remember you have the power
sellers are freaking out so let’s flip
to investors i can’t tell you how many
investors i have that say get brian on
get brian on get brian on people just
want to invest in vegas
what would you be telling investors
today about today i’ve done a lot with
your uh with your uh your viewers so
thank you all for your support i’ve
appreciated working with you over these
last few years
so when it comes to investors i mean
look
[Music]
if it made sense yesterday it’s probably
gonna make sense tomorrow and the
reality is is if you’re renting
properties with the market going the way
it is
it’s probably gonna put more stress on
the rental market because people if they
if people decide not to purchase for a
year what are they going to do they’re
going to rent exactly yes i
from an investor standpoint
i’m not worried the least bit as far as
demand for rental properties of anything
it might even exacerbate
as as an investor
look you shouldn’t have got yourself
into an investment that didn’t pencil
when you did it day one and unless you
just like just right now purchase an
investment property
you have tremendous amounts of equity
and again you know everyone’s got their
own goals but for me as an investor my
goal is to own the asset outright and
have it paid off right so for me
look as long as as long as you have cash
flow you can ride this wave out forever
the goal is to get to the finish line
and like we already discussed what are
you going to do you’re going to sell the
asset and pay taxes on your money
where else are you going to put the
money so i mean unless you’re in a
negative cash flow situation which
frankly you should have never purchased
the property to begin with
um and like like zubra said earlier i
mean you locked in at a historical low
interest rate so how are you gonna beat
that yeah it doesn’t
even if prices do go down 10 and you buy
back you’re gonna get killed on the
interest rate so you’re really going to
be a zero-sum game and then you lost you
know two years of principal balance
reductions by paying it off so if you’re
an investor just stay pat you’ll be fine
there’s ups there’s downs there’s more
ups than you have downs on the long term
so just stay tight and if you’re looking
to invest i think right now is premature
there’s no way i would you know be
buying unless
it was someone dropping their pants but
i think which
where the real pain comes
is
starting in six months
so as an investor i would start really
getting serious in about six months and
the reason is this
when we talked earlier about there is a
difference between someone who wants to
sell their home and has to sell their
home
and i’ve been through this before
different names same thing
what ends up happening is this your
crypto kids your wall street geniuses
and you got to remember this has a
trickle-down effect right
and this this is where this is where
people are missing how huge of an effect
this is
when the market’s going crazy and your
neighbor just
you know your house went up four hundred
thousand dollars your neighbor
refinanced remodeled their whole house
bought a mercedes your neighbor across
the street bought a g-wagon and you’re
like dude everyone’s rich all right
i’m gonna keep up with the joneses so
you go buy this and do that we’ve lived
in a fantasy world for three years where
everyone was rich and spent money on
everything and you felt rich because
when the equity in your home goes up you
feel wealthy well conversely is true
so what’s going to happen now is as
prices go down and you see your neighbor
across the street sell for 50 000 less
than the other person spent
everyone is going to contract their
spending and i’ll tell you i i literally
in my household i’ve already had these
conversations i got everything i need
everything i want now’s not the time to
spend a dollar i literally
am not spending money not because i know
where this is going so what ends up
happening is this when people stop
spending money
the next thing that’s going to affect is
think of all these rich contractors all
these contractors don’t show up they’ve
got more business than they can handle
their their business is going to dry up
overnight yes so
those contractors and then think about
small business owners you own a solar
company you own a company building pools
or what have you
your business is going to eviscerate
overnight between the interest rates and
demand you’re dead so what’s going to
happen very quickly is the consumer
confidence is going to plummet people
are not going to spend money and when
people don’t spend money all these other
small businesses are going to get killed
and a lot of these small business owners
got a little high on the hog and forgot
about 2008 so you’ve got a lot of small
business owners that are like they’re
making so much money it’s time to buy
that new house it’s time to buy that new
car
so now we’re reaching the point of
reckoning and human nature doesn’t
really give up that easily so
you know when your wife’s like we need
the bigger house the business is doing
great and you bought the boat you bought
the vacation home you bought the big
house because your business is doing
well
it’s really hard to look your children
and your wife and and tell them that we
probably should sell the house things
are not looking good it’s human nature
to to hopefully wish that things are
gonna turn around and you’ll get saved
i watch people with so much more than i
did lose everything out of hubris so
what’s going to end up happening is your
small business owners are going to get
hurt they’re going to keep their
business because that’s their livelihood
but they’re going to have to dump their
house so on that high end you know homes
that are 750 more like a million one
five
who the hell is going to be buying it
going in recession and all that funny
money all the crypto cash
it’s going to be really difficult and
what’s going to happen is
people are going to start listing their
homes in six months because they have to
sell their house but their ego is going
to to tell them that they still need to
ask top dollar by the time they get to a
realistic point it’s too late and i’ve
watched this happen multiple times and
the big big big pain is going to be felt
on that mid high level those 750 800 000
to 1.5 million people who got rich for a
second but don’t have wealth huge
difference but you’re wealthy very
different you know
so yeah so there’s a couple things i
would tell investors first and foremost
much like the homeowners that your
market’s coming to you
uh i tell people get a buy box right
vegas is too big you got to have a buy
box down to a zip down to an asset type
you got to look at it every day i would
expect the vegas market to be popping
with inventory changes cancellations uh
stuff coming off and going back on the
market this is the time to watch and
learn you need to learn ahead of time
you don’t just wake up six months from
now and know the market you have to
invest i call it focus and daily
discipline so get your ass off the couch
and start doing the work
and then if you’re going to be in vegas
you need to be reaching out to brian
lebo saying hey brian let me just share
my buy box let me check with you is this
is this good
right get that relationship especially
if you’re buying from out of state
and then lastly uh something i’m doing
personally again i’m an open freaking
book i am getting ready for
pre-foreclosures because exactly what
you talked about that kind of high-end
million million five those people are
gonna have egos they’re not gonna want
to take it down they’re gonna get behind
and pre-foreclosures is where i’m going
to go fishing right because foreclosures
take time you and i both know last time
it took over two years to foreclose in
vegas
and but you can fish in pre-foreclosures
and maybe you can find a way to get them
out uh and take it over easier so uh a
lot of opportunity coming to investors
don’t rush but freaking get off the
couch and do the work start building
relationships figure it out that’s
that’s what i would tell people no
that’s that’s
that for you guys out there that was
fantastic advice
you know even for me you know when i’m
interested in buying an asset
when i’m really interested in a specific
neighborhood or area that’s exactly what
i do is
way ahead of time before i’m ready to do
anything that’s exactly what i do for my
investors is we decide on what the goal
is what the area is and then we just
start monitoring it so
the easiest thing to do and i just did
this for matt is set up your parameters
and then you have a search so every day
it just sends you an email
price reduction price reduction sold
back on the market perfect you really
you want to see where the momentum is
going you want to see okay this is a
property that i would be interested in
and then 30 days later when it closes
you know immediately so you can start
tracking these trends and figuring out
what your goal is and how you’re going
to achieve it and when to stop on it
yeah just so you know brian that’s not
parameters that’s called a buy box just
so we get vocabulary correct
farming sorry i’ll get the renekton yeah
come on work with me here man work with
me
[Laughter]
all right now let’s just talk to the
real estate agents who are uh
have you been in the game 10 years in
vegas 20 years no but if you’ve been in
the market ten years right you are
you’re gonna get you’re gonna get a slap
on the face slapping the butt it’s here
it’s gonna wait it’s gonna wake up
you’re gonna get woken up uh here
shortly so what would you tell an agent
with 10 years or less so my advice and
and the advice that i’m going to give
you is advice that i actually
did this is not me just
talking off the cuff hypothetically
i would recommend you do what i did in
- in 2007 it was looking very very
bad it was worse than this but we’ll see
how it looks in a month but
all the telltale markers were there
i am a very conservative person
financially
so for me
when i saw the writing was on the wall
and i as an agent i had 10 agents
working for me and i was having a
difficult time making an income
so you know they don’t have a chance in
the world
so i had a meeting with my entire team
and i said hey guys
i’m just banning the team
i am literally cutting all the fat out
of my life and
that includes having this office that
includes having at the time i had an sl
mercedes convertible i had a bmw 7
series i was ballin
immediately sold everything
the mercedes i didn’t need it was a
second car the bmw was not the most
reliable vehicle and i wanted to put
myself in a position where i could
control my expenses so i literally
dumped everything i got a nice boring
mid-level lexus that’s completely
bulletproof just make the lease payment
don’t have to worry about anything just
take the right off and i knew what my
fixed costs were so as an agent you have
to understand that you’re about to enter
into a phase that
for you is unprecedented and the reality
is is a lot of times there’s no activity
until there is so
this market like you said transactions
will be 50
that’s we’re not speaking in hyperbole
here that that’s very realistic
and it’s going to be very difficult to
make income so you either
hopefully have a lot of capital saved up
or you need to create capital so
you know divester interest
get liquid there will be opportunities
to invest to flip to do other things but
the most important part is your ability
to to stay solvent and survive you got
to survive to thrive you’ve got to
survive the next 18 months and it’s
going to be brutal so anything that you
don’t need in your life cut it out any
that you don’t need that’s
costing you money get rid of it because
if you don’t get rid of it now it’s
going to be worthless in six months
because everyone else is going to be
doing it and at that point yeah
you know yeah
i love all of that
i mean that was so well said the only
thing i would add on top of that for new
and real estate investors is you got to
remember
time is still your scarcest factor and
unfortunately you are going to have lots
and lots of time wasters does it does a
listing matter if the client has wish
pricing that you think is six figures
above what is reality and they won’t
listen yeah
and and you know again you know there’s
not going to be a lot of buyers so
taking crap listings on the hope that
you can you’re never going to sell this
but at least i can get signed calls
it’s not yeah signing calls are already
dead you’re not really going to get a
lot of activity um the reality is going
to be this you got to ask the qualifying
questions to sometimes people will be
honest sometimes people out of pride
won’t be honest but you really have to
ascertain is this a person who needs to
sell or wants to sell because the wants
are most likely going to withdraw their
listing um just let another agent waste
the time again for you agents that you
don’t get paid to the end right so again
you’re wasting time and money right if
you’ve already if your liquidity is not
where you want it to be taking a listing
just cuz is not the way this is not list
to last the next 18 months and if your
house is if you have a top 10 listing
you’re gonna sell you’ll be all right
it’ll work it’ll work but if you are in
the bottom 80th percentile where all the
homes are homogeneous meaning they’re
all generic this house is no different
than my neighbors across the street
those are the properties that become
value-based um if there’s no emotional
attachment to the property then it
becomes well why would i buy your house
for x when i can buy the one across the
street for why yeah you compete on the
way down yeah yeah so just understand
that if you’re taking these boring
listings which we all do that is going
to be a value-based proposition so you
either get the timing right quick or
you’re going to be chasing it down and
and that’s just the way it goes
so brian if an investor who follows my
channel or home first time home buyer
wants to reach out to you get a buy box
set up brian buy box how would they do
that
so you can help them do that like you
are the lumberjack yeah so i mean please
watch my youtube channel
thelibogroup.com a lot of my information
is right there in the description
you can go to my website libogroup.com
the best way to reach me the best way to
reach me shoot me a text message you
guys all have phones text me so 702
257 libo l-e-b-o
libo shoot me a text say hey bry i want
to make some money hey bry i need to get
out right now shoot me a text i’ll get
right back to you awesome brian thank
you for all you do thank you for this
this has been a lot of fun i appreciate
you my pleasure thank you for having me
on and thank you to the audience it’s
been a great run i appreciate your time
yeah we’re not done yet we’re going to
make a lot of money the next two years
time time to get wealthy exactly