WARNING: 6 Months of PAIN Coming to Housing Market as Phase two of Housing Crash Has Started

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good morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael zuber one rental at a time

back with this real estate entrepreneur

omar afaro how you doing buddy

pretty good michael what’s up everybody

uh so omar we just uh we just need to

put it out there uh i’ve said this i’ve

said this on my daily financial news

some kind of personal one-on-one

discussions but i think we are in for

six months of pain in the real estate


i want to describe the pain yeah i want

to talk about what i see coming and then

more importantly


and pounce on opportunity

because where there is pain there is


so pain

as a real estate entrepreneur for you

really is going to come in two

forms one is you have a list you know

realtors you’re a broker um you know

listing and sale agreements

are probably already down for the year

i think as the 30-year rate goes to

seven percent it’s going to get smaller

so you’re going to be operating on less

and less transactions it would not shock


if by march your business is down 50

that part of the business that part of

the business

okay just again i i would love to be

wrong but i’m just telling you what i


you know you are the best of the best

you know you may be that’s like a

blended average for the high desert it

would not shock me if transactions are

down fifty percent that’s what

that’s that’s crazy


you are a real estate entrepreneur you

have airbnbs you do flips you do all of

these things

i believe and i think we talked about

this in the last couple of weeks the

flipping business uh you have to plan


an extra 90 days of hold time

you have to plan for fha buyers which

means you have that 90 day rule

you have to plan for pickier buyers you

have to plan for three percent credit at

closing you have to you just have to

plan for more expenses

so you have to buy better i know you are

hearing me i know you are changing but a

lot of your peers

in the high desert in california across

the country

are being stupid

they’re not buying better

the next six months as the 30-year

mortgage rate exceeds seven in my

opinion or my guess

think about the affordability it’s going

to crash to record lows

so you just have to realize i would tell

every flippers to do less projects the

next six i’m not telling you to stop

i’m not telling you to disband your team

if you used to do 10 a month

do three a month

until march we have to know where we are

in march in march

we have maybe we may have rates over

seven we might have unemployment at five

percent we may be in a nasty recession

this war in ukraine may be going on oil

might be over 100 bucks food we it may

be ugly

so i want everybody to prepare

for six months of pain

what do you think about that how do you

react what kind of questions jump out at

you what do you got yeah

this six months the first thing that

comes to mind is

um do you got do you have enough

reserves to withstand six months

um you know i ask myself that question

every day

can i look i look at my finances and i

look at the

account and it’s like okay where are we

at if it’s x per month you know do we


six months eight months a year

if we had zero income where are we at

like these are the conversations you

need to have for yourself if you’re in

this business as an investor um the next

thing is if 50 of transactions are down

and you’re in that 80

group or 85 percent group maybe even the

90 group because 10 obviously have that


then you got to adjust for it earlier

uh in a previous in our previous um


we talked about like okay well if you’re

a realtor professional if you’re out

there with a license uh for the ones

that i’m talking to um then go represent

some more buyers or sellers because you

have to be able to to bridge the gap

of the expense that you will be


um with the uh

with 50 lower transactions because that

goes that’s going to affect you too

because when we say 50

less transactions that means there’s

gonna be less buyers buying your flips

that means it’s gonna be less people

showing your houses

because even with the agents that are

out there so what do you gotta do you

gotta like figure out a way to bridge

the gap just to keep things moving



buying better what we talked about just


is you have to be like i don’t want to

say this in a mat in a bad way but you

got to literally insult the seller if

you’re going to want to buy a property

yeah okay you’ve got to be cheap you’ve

got to be cheap you got to be you have

to because guess what at the end of the

day they hold the asset you don’t you

don’t need to buy it

you don’t need to buy it i have two

deals now that i just sent out a text

yesterday and i said we need to

rediscuss terms because otherwise i’m


and they owe nothing on the property so

guess what they’re still going to make a

big chunk and i’m going to ask for a 30

000 reduction

not because i bought it wrong because

the market’s slipping exactly and i’m

seeing what it’s going to be in four

months when my exit is in four months or

three months so you have to be uh you

know you got to be ahead of that game

and the less projects

spot on 100 spot on like

i’m a i’m a deal junkie okay i will say

that online i love deals i love figuring

them out i love taking a listing for a

hundred thousand dollars and making a

fourth or three or four thousand dollar

check but then i also like doing the big

deals that i make 50 60 80k um in profit

so it’s i’m a deal junkie so at the same

time i’m checking myself

and letting you know hey where am i at

okay i’m selling this one this one this

one i’m not buying anything i’m gonna

keep everything away because i need to

see this adjustment you think before it

was um it was something you needed to

adjust it’s now you need to adjust

yeah so spot on all those all those

points uh michael it’s a little scary

you know it does punch you in the face


this is the reality of it right now yeah

brian libo uh the guy uh amazing broker

in vegas in vegas uh yeah he he’s been

through i mean vegas is talk about hot

and cold it’s it’s it’s kind of like you

know the high desert on steroids right


he talked about something i think it was

two months ago called he calls it mole

it stands for months of life

months of life i like this

what i would tell every real estate

agent broker flipper wholesaler if

you’re in the game of real estate and

that’s your income

you must calculate your months of life

look at your reserves today

look at your expenses today

and see how long you could survive

brian libo did this uh at the peak of

the last environment brian lebo was

living the good life

three different cars this that the other

just living it up

and he saw what was coming he reduced

his head count brokerage

he he got rid of every toy

and vegas went through three or four

years of pain

and it was because he appreciated the

month of life he survived and frankly


so what i want to tell people about this

next six months is we all will

experience the pain together

some of us will get crushed and leave

the business

some of us

will prepare

learn invest thrive and come out


again the six months of pain will hit


everyone everyone everyone

uh you can either get ready early

and get through it

or not uh the last thing i would tell

investors is kind of what you said

get greedy like if you happen to be in a

market where open door is

write offers that are insulting now

don’t write them on first day listings

let’s not be stupid

like 60 days 75 days on market write

insulting offers

what i’m telling you insulting right get

a get a counter if you write an offer

today and it gets accepted by the seller

you pay too much

i say that all the time i was like get

the counter get them to say will you do

this yes okay great yeah yeah yeah

exactly and again get closing costs buy

downs all of those things this is going

to happen

six months of pain

the pain will end

i hope on march 15th which will be the

launch of the spring selling season from

september 15th is when i announced phase

two of the housing crash it is going to

get to march 15th in march 15th i have

no idea will it go lower will it go

higher i don’t know where’s the economy

where is unemployment where rates too

far away let’s just survive the next six

months so we can survive after that what

do you think

if we survive this next win i shouldn’t

say if sorry sorry when march 5th when

march 15th you know that puts us there

at the end of the first quarter


of 2023 and i guess that’s gonna dictate

a lot of stuff

i think we gotta withstand

your uh this winter

and this and i think the winter

is fourth and first quarter oh great

um and

which is the six months of pain

and this is just something you gotta

bear down

um i’m gonna give some advice to

everybody that’s out there now

like you know what got you to where

you’re at now cool

be happy that you’re there

but you got to probably do three times

the work to get what you just got the

last six months

the last nine months

um you’re gonna do three times the

amount of work to probably make the same

amount of income

why because you gotta probably have to

do more and be a little bit more

conservative and i like the fact that

um that brian

he uh this month of living

he got rid of his toys and everything

else probably before the uh the

adjustment or during he saw it coming he

was still at the peak right a lot of

people a lot of people don’t realize

what’s happening you as a real estate

agent have all the data right in front

of you you just have to look so yeah

months of life um

saved it and again whack i you know i

actually saw a first post on facebook

the other day because i i’ve been

talking about get rid of your toys

somebody said look somebody’s getting

rid of their toys they’re selling like

some big fancy atv or off-road vehicle

i’m like yeah dude it’s coming

it’s coming up

yesterday full transparency

i texted my lady and i’m like hey um

selling the boat selling both boats um i

could withstand the mortgage payment or

whatever it is right my rental is

covered but at the same time

how much capital do i have tied up in in

a non-performing asset or a lot a

liability so i’m like you know

what it sits in a damn garage so get rid

of that get rid of that let me get

another 280

300k back in my bank account that i can

take that 300k

and go produce another

even if it was 10 or 20

for you the 300 grand might be i’m just

making this up as i go that 300 grand

might be your six months of life that


like honey i’m going to take that 300k

i’m going to put it in that separate

bank account we’re going to be fine no

matter what now i’m going to go run my

business on everything else and not

worry about 100

done you know

that or obviously what we do we push all

that 300k back in the mix and try to


300k more to double it and then go back

off and then go buy the liabilities that

i sold

for you know 75 off

because this is the thing it correlates

with the housing industry exactly all

the toys correlate with the housing

industry sell your toys early yeah if

there’s if there’s a 30 decrease in in

the housing industry right

you think there’s going to be a 30

increase in in boats and recreational

toys no it’s going to be a 50 dude real

estate agents like toys the last two

years have been amazing and easy money

we’ve said it many many times there are

lots of toys coming

there is a lot of toys coming yeah and

you guys can buy my toys no problem

somebody wants to buy them go

you’re happy for it

facebook marketplace and everything else

so yeah you’re good there you go well do

me a favor i love to transfer you love

the honesty love this conversation about

six months of pain i know you’re going

to survive and thrive uh we will be

talking about it it’s not going to be


just because you know you’re gonna saw

it doesn’t mean it’s fun um but uh yeah


march 15th is only six months away so

we’ll get there where can people find


guys follow me and invest with omar

invest some of your time and and i’m

helping you guys with some more

knowledge in real estate so come follow

me there you go buddy thanks

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