WARNING!!! 2023 Housing Market & Economy Will be MUCH WORSE THAN 2008 – GET READY!!!

Video Closed Captioning:

good morning good afternoon good evening

folks Michael Zuber won rental at a time

and uh pretty popular topic I’ve seen on

my YouTube feed I don’t know about yours


talking about the 2023 housing market

being worse than 2008.

I think this is a very interesting

conversation I I think it is uh full of

passionate opinions

I think there’s a lot of folks who

frankly want

2023 to be worse than 2008.

you have heard me talk about 2023

uh perhaps being the worst economic year

of my adult life

so I sit here today

not expecting 2023

to be a very good year

I think that on many many many measures

if not most measures

2023 is going to go down as a

record-breaking bad year but that said

when somebody says that 2023 is going to

be worse

than 2008.

and they single out the housing market

that’s an interesting discussion

that’s an interesting discussion because

unlike many of these prognosticators

I live through the 08

09 10 crash

in fact I bought my first rental

property in 2002 so I saw the crazy run

up up close and personal

also uh we got out of the way we sold

all our houses near the peak because

they didn’t make Financial sense

so I thought we should use the 50-year

spreadsheet or the 52-year spreadsheet

and I thought we should look at every

single metric

and ask ourselves

how will 2023 compare to 2008.

as I sit here before opening the

spreadsheet I could tell you that I

think 2023 will be worse than 2008.

on many if not most indicators

now I believe a lot of people are

talking about 2023

housing and price

being worse than 08

and I don’t see it

but we will pull it up we will look at

it together and we will have a


I will undoubtedly agree with all of you

that things are happening faster today

I will also agree with you that I am

wrong all the time


my opinions my opinion I wish I had a

different one

but without further Ado let’s pull up

the spreadsheet and really dig in

will 2023

be worse than 2008. all right let’s pull

it up

so again folks this is something that I

consider so valuable that we give away

for free

I don’t know where to put it so I put it

on teachable if you look below there’s a

link for a free course you can get this

spreadsheet with all the tabs just a

level set these aren’t my made up


uh we have taken the time to list all

data sources

so um

you can go back and check these data

sources we included them these are not

our data we just put them on the put

them on the graph or put them on the


okay so let’s let’s level set everybody

so we’re talking about 2023 which will

be out here being worse than 08.

so that’s this year here

so we’re just going to go down every

record and have a discussion

uh so we’ll start with home ownership

uh the I guess the first thing to talk


yeah I think we should talk about this


the first


I see in a lot of uh people on YouTube

talking about 2023 and 08

is 08

or that crisis that event

was not a year

as you will see in this spreadsheet 08

wasn’t the worst year it was actually

  1. so when somebody is comparing 2023

to 2008

they don’t really appreciate

that the great financial crisis

was years in the making

and if you’re going to compare a year

you shouldn’t compare 2023 with 08 you

should compare 2023 with 09. 2009 was

when you really started seeing cascading

and in you know foreclosure inventory

getting over 2 million 08 was still

pretty close to the peak

so again all the numbers are here you

can look at them yourself

but the first thing I will say is when

you compare to 08

it really isn’t 08 it was really 2008 to

  1. or 2007 to 2011. why is that


it is important because every because a

lot of people are trying to force

negativity into a single year

and that’s just not how the housing

market works you can see here

uh the housing market


you know was really kind of five six

years in the making

right it was bad for six years

so again

if you are going to compare 2023 to 08

you’re missing the point you’re just

flat out missing the point but that is

what people want that’s what we will do

so the first thing is home ownership

you can see that in this crisis home

ownership went down

ultimately bottoming in 2011.

uh given we were at the end of 2021 we

don’t have 2022 data yet because the

year is not over I think it’s fair to

say that home ownership will be down

home ownership will be down home

ownership will be worse than 08. no


how about median home price well again

median home price it’s not really the

price so we will skip this it’s really

home appreciation which we will get to

in a minute so we’ll just skip over


homes sold these are new homes sold

again you can see that new home sales

were on a negative trend for five years

I think you will see that collapse as

well I think new home sales drops I

think new home sales in 2023 will be

less than 485.

so I think new home sales will be less

than 485. so again worse

how about existing home sales

existing home sales in 08 kind of bottom

which is interesting but here’s why

and here’s why 2023 in my opinion will

be worse I believe 2023 will be under 4


that’s wild under 4 million

why is that well because the crisis here

while new home sales were falling

existing home sales didn’t because they

were short sales and foreclosures we

don’t have that 2023 will not be

dominated by distressed inventory we

will have some but it will not be

dominated in my market of Fresno

California seemingly 50 percent of

listings were dominated by distressed

listings in this crisis it’s not going

to happen we will not have 50 percent of

inventory be distressed

so again I believe total transactions in

2023 will be less

than 4.6 million so yes 2023 will be

worse than 08.

now price appreciation this is the one


that I think will be interesting

as you can see again price appreciation

started to decline in 08

oh sorry going the wrong way there we go

it fell for five years in a row

price real estate is sticky we have

already seen transactions crash 30 we’ve

already seen mortgage rates go up 300

basis points everybody is telling you

when mortgage rates go up three percent

they’re supposed to crash 30 like it’s a


it’s not how it works folks it’s just

not how it works so again housing is

sticky inventory is down inventory is

going this way I do not

think that 2023 will see negative worse

than negative 4.6

I could be wrong I’m wrong all the time

uh but again that is my opinion so again

I think a lot of these stats are worse I

do not see home appreciation being worse

so it’ll be something less than negative

0.4 in 2023.

interest rates I think they’re going to

be higher uh even though Barry Habib is

talking about sub five I think they will

be over six I think frankly it needs to

be over six for a year uh just to level

set the market get us back to working

uh we’ll skip all of this affordability

Road 12. this will absolutely be worse I

think 2023 could be the worst year for

affordability either 2022 or 2023 will

be the worst year

price interest rate crazy

median price to income ratio will be

worse this will be higher this will be


uh median income is obviously up here we

go nominal wage growth

nominal wage growth was basically flat

for the year of 08. I believe nominal

wage growth will be five six seven

percent I believe we have started wage

price inflation or weight yeah a wage

price inflation or spiral I believe wage

growth will be five four five six

percent next year

we’ll see but that is a much much better

we will be in much better shape in 2023

uh as wages grow I believe this decade

will kind of be like the 70s where wage

growth is strong

uh Unemployment uh 5.81 let’s oh wow

look at that unemployment rate again

08’s not the year folks you got to

compare to 2009 these people comparing

2023 with 08 don’t understand it got

look at how bad unemployment was

man damn it was bad for five years

oh yuck

uh unemployment I don’t think

unemployment gets to 5.81 next year I

don’t think so

that’d be a big jump right that’d be

what did that be like 2.3 percent I mean

it’s certainly possible but I don’t see


CPI CPI will be worse

CPI will probably be

if we’re lucky four and a half four

so I guess it’s close well uh that’s the

end of the year though what will that

average it’ll probably average four and

a half

the misery Index this again is Jimmy

Carter era stuff you just simply add

unemployment with CPI

let’s think unemployment

yeah it’ll be close it’ll be close S P

500 S P 500 was down three percent

oh wow look at 2009. again folks

comparing 2023 with 08 don’t understand

it wasn’t 08.

s p crashed in 09 not in 08.

I don’t know what the s p I’m not a big

stock guy

uh then you have some adjustments for

inflation real versus nominal these are

all real we’re up here are nominal

S P 500 adjusted for CPI home

appreciation all there

oh last one we’ll talk about is gross

domestic product

gross domestic product was negative

uh in 08

I think it’ll be worse I think 2023 on a

year-over-year base or on a year basis

all four quarters will be worse so at

the end of the day I think a lot of

these metrics 2023 will be worse than 08

I do not see price unfortunately uh I

will once again reiterate that anybody

that tries to take 2023 a single year

and compare it to 08 is missing the

point the great financial crisis needs

to be looked at really in totality it’s

these five years will 2023 be worse than

these five years

I don’t see it what was that a total

that’s a negative 22 drop

housing crashed 22 percent in five years

nine percent was the worst and this is

really 8.9 it just rounded up to nine

so it’s pretty interesting to look at

um I think wages so on the on the so

again so that’s home price wages where’s

wages so wage growth look at this what

was wage growth for five years

wage growth for five years was only 1.6

think about that 1.6 for five years I

believe wage growth for the next five

years when you combine them when you

simply add them together

could be 20 percent

eight I think it’ll be 18 plus

that is a huge difference

wage growth will be 18 over five years

instead of 1.6 huge difference huge


what were the s p what was s p oh look

at this the S P 500

over five years was negative what is

that negative what is this let’s see


ouch is that right no that’s not right

so it went from 1378 to 1300 for five

years you lost you know you talk about a

lost decade

you lost five years


lost five years I don’t know not a stock

guy I don’t want to play there

all right

so at the end of the day I think

comparing 2023 with 08 is absolutely an

interesting intellectual exercise

I think a lot of uh 2023 will be worse

than 08 uh home ownership worse

new home sales worse existing home sales



what will be better wages

housing price

I hope the stock market but don’t know

so again you should play with this

spreadsheet you should understand that


is not shouldn’t be compared to 08 if

you want to take 2023 compare it to 08

or yeah 08 to 2012 08 to 2011. uh very

fun exercise so

take care of yourself have a wonderful

day thank you so much

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