Video Closed Captioning:
all right we are back and as you know on
friday we do the friday financial news
wrap-up with mr michael zuber how are
you michael i’m doing well man i always
like to kind of look back at the week
see what we did uh so thank you for
giving me this time each week i
appreciate what you do and i know our
audience loves the content especially
now because the world is changing so
today is july the 1st it’s 4th of july
weekend july the 1st 2022 let’s get
right into it something we talked about
pre-roll why is july 20th important
yeah so i put out a video in the last 48
hours basically declaring that july 20th
is going to be date that the real estate
market kind of
it really hits all of us that the market
has shifted
uh we’ve we’re all i have a buy box i
talk to brokers across the country we’re
all seeing our little pockets change
it’s going to hit the national media uh
no later than july 20th when the
national association of realtors
posts
uh existing home sales
uh they’re gonna be down uh they’re
gonna be down a lot uh
uh inventory is gonna show a big jump
and it’s to be the first time that
everybody goes oh my god
mike zuber might be right transactions
down
prices up
you know prices aren’t going to be down
uh this month the median home price for
the country or the nation will be up
but transactions are going to go down
and
as we’ll talk about later i believe that
real estate the real estate market that
i look at every day i talk to people
every day i believe the real estate
market
will fundamentally cause q3 and q4 gdp
to be negative
which might be the start of a recession
or a continuation uh depending on how q2
looks on the 28th of july but at the end
july 20th is the date i think um
it’s it’s it’s going to be the time you
and i see the media go
they’ll do headlines like housing market
is dead house i mean it’ll just be and
what is going to happen for me because
again
consumers are
kind of easy to predict
buyers are going to freak out you think
you don’t have any buyers today wait
until the media tells them that housing
is over buyers are going to drop like
flies they’re going to they’re going to
say things like we’re going to wait six
months we’re going to renew our lease
buyers are going to disappear sellers
they’re going to kind of do the reverse
you think you got fomo right now
wait until you get the sellers get the
july data and they’re going to go oh my
god honey we have to list now we have to
list now we have to list now you’re
going to get a lot of listings coming
but how many of those are going to be
wish pricing how many of those really
have to sell it’s going to be a noisy
noisy market but in the end
july 20th is the date people realize
that transactions start to crash and i
think it gets worse the rest of the year
so yeah july 20th important date
very interesting very interesting this
you’re the first person i’ve seen that
talked about that specific date i’ve got
to say too that um
for most of our audience people see this
on a recurring basis you’ve been a big
part of our community
obviously the one rental out of time
community
we’ve all been really aware of this and
we’ve seen the trickles of news and
you’re basically saying
no
july 20th you’re going to really see
this explosion of negative news of the
headlines of what basically the shifting
market that we’ve been talking about is
that accurate absolutely where it you
know it’s either the 20th right the data
comes out on the 20th that might take
him a 24-hour news cycle to blast it
everywhere but it’s coming and it will
be that because right now we’re getting
little data right like i got data from
austin texas this morning that their
active inventories up 144
if you’re in austin you see it and
you’re telling me this but the country
really hasn’t adopted that
vegas up um doubled in like eight weeks
phoenix up 5 000 in like six weeks
we’re getting little pieces but
july 20th
uh the world changes
buyers again buyers and sellers will
react different to the headline
very interesting too and i just want to
comment on this and then we’ll move to
the next subject is that there’s another
uh service called uh keeping matters
keeping current matters keeping matters
current and they’re like a kind of like
a uh for realtors and brokers they put
out like news and they’ve really worked
so hard to just like do this whole
process of keep calm keep calm
everything’s okay yes things are
shifting a little bit but it’s not a
crash it’s not a bubble we’ve talked
about housing crash and bubble
again when we talk about housing crash
and bubble there’s two different
conversations going on michael and i
when we talk about crash and bubble
we’re talking about values of properties
crashing clarify that michael
yeah let’s be very clear i think we are
going to have a housing-based recession
in q3 q4 without question
housing real estate the housing market
collectively makes up 14 or 15 percent
of gdp i believe real estate
transactions could fall 30 to 50
this year that’s a lot less commission a
lot less inspections a lot less titles a
lot less a lot less a lot less
and all of that money is going to
reverberate and cause a recession
transactions are going to crash people
hear me say crash and they think price i
never said price in fact i will say
right here right now
national median home price for 2022 will
not be negative it won’t even be
negative in december housing doesn’t
move this fast we are going to have
buyers are going to ghost sellers are
gonna list in a huff it’ll take 30 45 60
days they’ll pull their listings off
we’re seeing it you don’t have to sell
if you’re not truly a motivated seller
if you don’t get your number
you’re just not going to sell so real
estate agents you need to start
protecting your time because you’re
going to get a lot of junk listings i’m
afraid
very interesting so folks pay attention
you should be definitely watching
michael’s daily news thank you michael
for sharing that let’s keep it going so
let’s talk about pce what is pce and
what happened this week yeah pce is only
important because it’s important to the
federal reserve in jerome powell pce
stands for personal consumption
expenditures it has two numbers a
headline and core
headline is what impacts you and i food
energy rent uh it’s over six percent not
really slowing down
core did trick down just ever so
slightly it’s what the fed looks at
because it doesn’t have as much
variability uh the widest gap between
headline and core of the last 12 years
happened this week 1.6 percent uh so at
the end of the day even if core or yeah
core goes down i think the fed has a
huge problem because what everybody else
sees headline
screaming uh so big problems but yeah
basically this week inflation still a
problem
inflation’s still a problem even with 75
basis points
we’re it’s still a problem we’re
probably gonna see
a continued fed rise yeah oh yeah fed’s
going up 75 in july it’s what i call i
called that weeks ago so i’m not
changing got it love okay well i love i
love that i’m paying attention to you so
let’s keep it going let’s talk about
recession
- what do you see in there so
there’s a couple things i want to
acknowledge first and foremost there’s
this uh there’s this atlanta fed who has
their fed or their gdp predictor they’re
actually calling for negative gdp growth
right uh if you go to their site they’ve
it started at 1 3 then it was 0.9 then
it was flat and now it’s negative one
percent so lots of adjustments in the
last two weeks
um so they’re calling for negative in q2
which would be two quarters of negative
gdp because q1 was negative 1.6 i am
currently calling or holding out hope
that we have like a 0.1 or a 0.2
positive for q2 we’ll see it’ll be
reported july 28th regardless of q2 is
positive or negative i believe without
question
q3 and q4 are negative and it would be
blamed on real estate uh because of lack
of transaction and just the money
sloshing around is evaporating quickly
so i believe we have a recession in 2022
uh which means i’m wrong earlier in the
year uh i had called for a recession in
2023 i said q2 or q3 uh so i’m wrong i
think there is absolutely without
question recession this year are we in
one or i you know has it already started
meaning q1 and q2
i’m gonna hope for a slight positive but
i don’t i don’t see any hope that q3 and
q4 aren’t negative so we either have
four negative quarters in 2022 or we
have three negative and a
ever so slightly positive in q2
2022 is gonna be a bad year for uh gdp
just it is
very interesting folks you’ve heard it
here i love to michael making the
adjustment right it’s not about
it’s just about what it it is happening
so
yeah i take a shot if i’m wrong hey more
data i missed it it’s okay i’m wrong all
the time so when you try to look around
the corner it’s hard it’s hard to do
well you’ve been doing an amazing job of
really
digging into the data and you’ve been
warning us we’ve been talking about this
we always say this the six the last six
twelve
nine months we’ve been in this
conversation so let’s keep something we
haven’t talked about in a while let’s
move to the next topic the 10-year
treasury yeah what happened there i got
to tell you this one surprised me so the
10-year treasury i think peaked at like
3.4 something like that like 10 days ago
maybe 14 days ago
and i hadn’t even looked at it in a
while and then yesterday i saw that it
went under three percent and today it’s
under 2.9 so i i honestly don’t know
what’s going on i think this could be a
sign that liquidity is breaking
somewhere in the financial system so it
could be a huge problem
at a minimum this is a sign that smart
money the bond market
doesn’t believe the fed
i think
we’re you know the easiest explanation
is that the market says the recession is
coming and the fed’s wrong
that could be it and if that’s it i’m
okay with that my fear tai
is there some underlying liquidity
process breaking
that we don’t see yet
and uh you know we’re we’re going to run
into it you know the next week or two
i don’t know i mean
the 10-year under 2.9 in an environment
where the fed is very likely to raise 75
again in like three weeks
something’s going on i don’t know it’s
it it’s shocking and i don’t have an
explanation
very interesting so i think obviously i
think we’ll talk about that again next
week and probably
very interesting very very interesting
so let’s wrap up let’s wrap up with some
positive news
and i think let’s talk about a couple of
things and i want to tee this up
you and i both agree this market
shifting is a tremendous opportunity if
you have the right skill sets and the
right mindset would you agree
yeah again what have we as real estate
investors been begging for
all of you i wish the market was slowing
down i wish it wasn’t so competitive
guess what
after july 20th it’s gonna be a lot less
competitive uh so skill up network up
learn your skills uh i think this is a
time to only do great deals not good
i think this is the time to figure out
ways you can use low down payments
right if you have a pile let’s say your
pile is a hundred grand
you could go out and get two standard
loans and do two deals maybe however if
you get creative and you market to the
different areas maybe that becomes four
deals i don’t know this is a time to
learn get creative push yourself uh for
me it means seller financing i don’t i
mean i’m i’m marketing to seller
financing with equity i’m spending
thousands of dollars trying to find one
two or three sellers who are carry first
or seconds
i have a little dry powder i told my
channel months ago i was building it we
did we borrowed money when it was cheap
uh and i’ve been sitting on it and now
it’s gonna be you know it’s i’m not
gonna rush it’s not like i have to
deploy it next week but i’m gonna be
spending money right we’re gonna hit
this mailer once every three weeks
and um yeah i expect to get two or three
deals that are
amazing great if not amazing deals and
um yeah it’s i think it’s gonna be a
wonderful time a slower market is good
for the prepared people
i love it folks and if you’ve been
watching if you’re a part of michael’s
course if you’ve been a member of one
rental at a time foundation builders evo
we’ve been preparing for this moment
this is a tremendous opportunity and
even if you don’t feel prepared well
guess what you can go to onerental at a
time.com
michael has an incredible course um i’ve
put on some content on there about
talking about pre-foreclosures
yeah it’s the latest bonus section that
i was so happy you said yes to
um
because that’s an area i have to skill
up one of the things that you’ll see
about one rental at a time is i stay in
my lane and then i go find experts in
areas i have no experience
so you went ahead and created that
course
you’ve already agreed to do a deep dive
session we’re gonna schedule that out in
the next month or so deep dive sessions
are just for my students they usually go
60 to 90 minutes and
we then post them on youtube because we
want to give this stuff away i just
control it the questions by having my
students in it so
it’s an amazing time we’ve done a couple
i’ve got one more schedule next week for
cost segregation and bonus depreciation
uh we’ll do probably pre-foreclosure
after that
but yeah we’re going deep man we’re
trying to help people we’re just trying
to help you get prepared get your buy
box network grow push yourself uh this
is not a time to sit back and do nothing
in fact this is the time to be
consistent your market is changing like
never before you need to look every day
you need to network right rule number
three i think on my rule of seven is add
two people to your network
let’s get going skill up
wealth is built in recessions all of you
that come back to me and go oh you did
so well last time well i got prepared i
did the work
i’m doing it now i’m spending thousands
of dollars mailing to a market that
they’re not listed so
i can just keep telling people what i’m
doing and showing them
uh that’s what you and i do and thank
you for creating the bonus section
yeah i i’m excited too because even i
had promised you and i’m going to do a
third piece which is i’m going to do a
creative finance
piece talk about seller carry talk about
sub 2 talk about hybrid transactions
also in terms of deal structuring in
terms of contract and buying
pre-foreclosures things like that so
also i’ll prepare that in the next 10
days for you as well super excited to do
the deep dive thank you michael um i
want to just share real quick folks if
you don’t have the books the two books
are right here one rental at a time
conversations with real estate
millionaires you can find them on amazon
i can say that a lot of you already have
the books give this man a five star
review you can buy the course if you’re
not a member of michael’s course buy the
course i also want to share michael for
your audience for our audience we are
running a special it’s fourth of july so
guess what i’ve got the real estate
coupon the world’s biggest real estate
coupon right here we have general
admission tickets they will sell out
we have general admission tickets for
you’ll see this here 300
300 the discount code is event 300
people can go to re hybrid event
dot com
re like real estate re hybrid event dot
event.com
we’re doing a live event august 11th and
12th michael’s going to be there as our
guest speaker we’ve got mr thatch nguyen
um did you see thatch’s video today
talking about interest rates not yet no
it’s on my to-do list i i love so thatch
nguyen is going to be there you guys
know thatch he’s the burr guy he’s
absolutely incredible he’s going to be
one of our keynote guest speakers along
with michael michael what are you going
to share with the audience and maybe
just some thoughts a little yeah i’ve
been asked to give my kind of state of
the union of housing and a housing
market on august 11th is going to be
very different than today because uh as
we said in episode or part of this
july 20th is a big date so i’m going to
be giving you the the latest and
greatest what’s going on in housing
what’s going on
is it scary how do you do it it’s it’s
it’s
i guarantee you to wake you up
because i’m just going to give it to you
i’ve i got nothing i got nothing to sell
nothing to do i’m going to give you the
straight skinny uh so i’m going to i’m
gonna try to wake you up and hopefully
hopefully everybody sees
uh that wealth can be created in the
next couple years that’s my goal
i love it michael thank you for all that
you do happy fourth of july
we live in a great country where we have
the opportunity to create wealth so
god bless thank you so much michael
appreciate all that you do thank you you
got it take care