The Week in Review: The Housing Market Reset Starts July 20, Inflation Rages, Housing Lead Recession

Video Closed Captioning:

all right we are back and as you know on

friday we do the friday financial news

wrap-up with mr michael zuber how are

you michael i’m doing well man i always

like to kind of look back at the week

see what we did uh so thank you for

giving me this time each week i

appreciate what you do and i know our

audience loves the content especially

now because the world is changing so

today is july the 1st it’s 4th of july

weekend july the 1st 2022 let’s get

right into it something we talked about

pre-roll why is july 20th important

yeah so i put out a video in the last 48

hours basically declaring that july 20th

is going to be date that the real estate

market kind of

it really hits all of us that the market

has shifted

uh we’ve we’re all i have a buy box i

talk to brokers across the country we’re

all seeing our little pockets change

it’s going to hit the national media uh

no later than july 20th when the

national association of realtors

posts

uh existing home sales

uh they’re gonna be down uh they’re

gonna be down a lot uh

uh inventory is gonna show a big jump

and it’s to be the first time that

everybody goes oh my god

mike zuber might be right transactions

down

prices up

you know prices aren’t going to be down

uh this month the median home price for

the country or the nation will be up

but transactions are going to go down

and

as we’ll talk about later i believe that

real estate the real estate market that

i look at every day i talk to people

every day i believe the real estate

market

will fundamentally cause q3 and q4 gdp

to be negative

which might be the start of a recession

or a continuation uh depending on how q2

looks on the 28th of july but at the end

july 20th is the date i think um

it’s it’s it’s going to be the time you

and i see the media go

they’ll do headlines like housing market

is dead house i mean it’ll just be and

what is going to happen for me because

again

consumers are

kind of easy to predict

buyers are going to freak out you think

you don’t have any buyers today wait

until the media tells them that housing

is over buyers are going to drop like

flies they’re going to they’re going to

say things like we’re going to wait six

months we’re going to renew our lease

buyers are going to disappear sellers

they’re going to kind of do the reverse

you think you got fomo right now

wait until you get the sellers get the

july data and they’re going to go oh my

god honey we have to list now we have to

list now we have to list now you’re

going to get a lot of listings coming

but how many of those are going to be

wish pricing how many of those really

have to sell it’s going to be a noisy

noisy market but in the end

july 20th is the date people realize

that transactions start to crash and i

think it gets worse the rest of the year

so yeah july 20th important date

very interesting very interesting this

you’re the first person i’ve seen that

talked about that specific date i’ve got

to say too that um

for most of our audience people see this

on a recurring basis you’ve been a big

part of our community

obviously the one rental out of time

community

we’ve all been really aware of this and

we’ve seen the trickles of news and

you’re basically saying

no

july 20th you’re going to really see

this explosion of negative news of the

headlines of what basically the shifting

market that we’ve been talking about is

that accurate absolutely where it you

know it’s either the 20th right the data

comes out on the 20th that might take

him a 24-hour news cycle to blast it

everywhere but it’s coming and it will

be that because right now we’re getting

little data right like i got data from

austin texas this morning that their

active inventories up 144

if you’re in austin you see it and

you’re telling me this but the country

really hasn’t adopted that

vegas up um doubled in like eight weeks

phoenix up 5 000 in like six weeks

we’re getting little pieces but

july 20th

uh the world changes

buyers again buyers and sellers will

react different to the headline

very interesting too and i just want to

comment on this and then we’ll move to

the next subject is that there’s another

uh service called uh keeping matters

keeping current matters keeping matters

current and they’re like a kind of like

a uh for realtors and brokers they put

out like news and they’ve really worked

so hard to just like do this whole

process of keep calm keep calm

everything’s okay yes things are

shifting a little bit but it’s not a

crash it’s not a bubble we’ve talked

about housing crash and bubble

again when we talk about housing crash

and bubble there’s two different

conversations going on michael and i

when we talk about crash and bubble

we’re talking about values of properties

crashing clarify that michael

yeah let’s be very clear i think we are

going to have a housing-based recession

in q3 q4 without question

housing real estate the housing market

collectively makes up 14 or 15 percent

of gdp i believe real estate

transactions could fall 30 to 50

this year that’s a lot less commission a

lot less inspections a lot less titles a

lot less a lot less a lot less

and all of that money is going to

reverberate and cause a recession

transactions are going to crash people

hear me say crash and they think price i

never said price in fact i will say

right here right now

national median home price for 2022 will

not be negative it won’t even be

negative in december housing doesn’t

move this fast we are going to have

buyers are going to ghost sellers are

gonna list in a huff it’ll take 30 45 60

days they’ll pull their listings off

we’re seeing it you don’t have to sell

if you’re not truly a motivated seller

if you don’t get your number

you’re just not going to sell so real

estate agents you need to start

protecting your time because you’re

going to get a lot of junk listings i’m

afraid

very interesting so folks pay attention

you should be definitely watching

michael’s daily news thank you michael

for sharing that let’s keep it going so

let’s talk about pce what is pce and

what happened this week yeah pce is only

important because it’s important to the

federal reserve in jerome powell pce

stands for personal consumption

expenditures it has two numbers a

headline and core

headline is what impacts you and i food

energy rent uh it’s over six percent not

really slowing down

core did trick down just ever so

slightly it’s what the fed looks at

because it doesn’t have as much

variability uh the widest gap between

headline and core of the last 12 years

happened this week 1.6 percent uh so at

the end of the day even if core or yeah

core goes down i think the fed has a

huge problem because what everybody else

sees headline

screaming uh so big problems but yeah

basically this week inflation still a

problem

inflation’s still a problem even with 75

basis points

we’re it’s still a problem we’re

probably gonna see

a continued fed rise yeah oh yeah fed’s

going up 75 in july it’s what i call i

called that weeks ago so i’m not

changing got it love okay well i love i

love that i’m paying attention to you so

let’s keep it going let’s talk about

recession

  1. what do you see in there so

there’s a couple things i want to

acknowledge first and foremost there’s

this uh there’s this atlanta fed who has

their fed or their gdp predictor they’re

actually calling for negative gdp growth

right uh if you go to their site they’ve

it started at 1 3 then it was 0.9 then

it was flat and now it’s negative one

percent so lots of adjustments in the

last two weeks

um so they’re calling for negative in q2

which would be two quarters of negative

gdp because q1 was negative 1.6 i am

currently calling or holding out hope

that we have like a 0.1 or a 0.2

positive for q2 we’ll see it’ll be

reported july 28th regardless of q2 is

positive or negative i believe without

question

q3 and q4 are negative and it would be

blamed on real estate uh because of lack

of transaction and just the money

sloshing around is evaporating quickly

so i believe we have a recession in 2022

uh which means i’m wrong earlier in the

year uh i had called for a recession in

2023 i said q2 or q3 uh so i’m wrong i

think there is absolutely without

question recession this year are we in

one or i you know has it already started

meaning q1 and q2

i’m gonna hope for a slight positive but

i don’t i don’t see any hope that q3 and

q4 aren’t negative so we either have

four negative quarters in 2022 or we

have three negative and a

ever so slightly positive in q2

2022 is gonna be a bad year for uh gdp

just it is

very interesting folks you’ve heard it

here i love to michael making the

adjustment right it’s not about

it’s just about what it it is happening

so

yeah i take a shot if i’m wrong hey more

data i missed it it’s okay i’m wrong all

the time so when you try to look around

the corner it’s hard it’s hard to do

well you’ve been doing an amazing job of

really

digging into the data and you’ve been

warning us we’ve been talking about this

we always say this the six the last six

twelve

nine months we’ve been in this

conversation so let’s keep something we

haven’t talked about in a while let’s

move to the next topic the 10-year

treasury yeah what happened there i got

to tell you this one surprised me so the

10-year treasury i think peaked at like

3.4 something like that like 10 days ago

maybe 14 days ago

and i hadn’t even looked at it in a

while and then yesterday i saw that it

went under three percent and today it’s

under 2.9 so i i honestly don’t know

what’s going on i think this could be a

sign that liquidity is breaking

somewhere in the financial system so it

could be a huge problem

at a minimum this is a sign that smart

money the bond market

doesn’t believe the fed

i think

we’re you know the easiest explanation

is that the market says the recession is

coming and the fed’s wrong

that could be it and if that’s it i’m

okay with that my fear tai

is there some underlying liquidity

process breaking

that we don’t see yet

and uh you know we’re we’re going to run

into it you know the next week or two

i don’t know i mean

the 10-year under 2.9 in an environment

where the fed is very likely to raise 75

again in like three weeks

something’s going on i don’t know it’s

it it’s shocking and i don’t have an

explanation

very interesting so i think obviously i

think we’ll talk about that again next

week and probably

very interesting very very interesting

so let’s wrap up let’s wrap up with some

positive news

and i think let’s talk about a couple of

things and i want to tee this up

you and i both agree this market

shifting is a tremendous opportunity if

you have the right skill sets and the

right mindset would you agree

yeah again what have we as real estate

investors been begging for

all of you i wish the market was slowing

down i wish it wasn’t so competitive

guess what

after july 20th it’s gonna be a lot less

competitive uh so skill up network up

learn your skills uh i think this is a

time to only do great deals not good

i think this is the time to figure out

ways you can use low down payments

right if you have a pile let’s say your

pile is a hundred grand

you could go out and get two standard

loans and do two deals maybe however if

you get creative and you market to the

different areas maybe that becomes four

deals i don’t know this is a time to

learn get creative push yourself uh for

me it means seller financing i don’t i

mean i’m i’m marketing to seller

financing with equity i’m spending

thousands of dollars trying to find one

two or three sellers who are carry first

or seconds

i have a little dry powder i told my

channel months ago i was building it we

did we borrowed money when it was cheap

uh and i’ve been sitting on it and now

it’s gonna be you know it’s i’m not

gonna rush it’s not like i have to

deploy it next week but i’m gonna be

spending money right we’re gonna hit

this mailer once every three weeks

and um yeah i expect to get two or three

deals that are

amazing great if not amazing deals and

um yeah it’s i think it’s gonna be a

wonderful time a slower market is good

for the prepared people

i love it folks and if you’ve been

watching if you’re a part of michael’s

course if you’ve been a member of one

rental at a time foundation builders evo

we’ve been preparing for this moment

this is a tremendous opportunity and

even if you don’t feel prepared well

guess what you can go to onerental at a

time.com

michael has an incredible course um i’ve

put on some content on there about

talking about pre-foreclosures

yeah it’s the latest bonus section that

i was so happy you said yes to

um

because that’s an area i have to skill

up one of the things that you’ll see

about one rental at a time is i stay in

my lane and then i go find experts in

areas i have no experience

so you went ahead and created that

course

you’ve already agreed to do a deep dive

session we’re gonna schedule that out in

the next month or so deep dive sessions

are just for my students they usually go

60 to 90 minutes and

we then post them on youtube because we

want to give this stuff away i just

control it the questions by having my

students in it so

it’s an amazing time we’ve done a couple

i’ve got one more schedule next week for

cost segregation and bonus depreciation

uh we’ll do probably pre-foreclosure

after that

but yeah we’re going deep man we’re

trying to help people we’re just trying

to help you get prepared get your buy

box network grow push yourself uh this

is not a time to sit back and do nothing

in fact this is the time to be

consistent your market is changing like

never before you need to look every day

you need to network right rule number

three i think on my rule of seven is add

two people to your network

let’s get going skill up

wealth is built in recessions all of you

that come back to me and go oh you did

so well last time well i got prepared i

did the work

i’m doing it now i’m spending thousands

of dollars mailing to a market that

they’re not listed so

i can just keep telling people what i’m

doing and showing them

uh that’s what you and i do and thank

you for creating the bonus section

yeah i i’m excited too because even i

had promised you and i’m going to do a

third piece which is i’m going to do a

creative finance

piece talk about seller carry talk about

sub 2 talk about hybrid transactions

also in terms of deal structuring in

terms of contract and buying

pre-foreclosures things like that so

also i’ll prepare that in the next 10

days for you as well super excited to do

the deep dive thank you michael um i

want to just share real quick folks if

you don’t have the books the two books

are right here one rental at a time

conversations with real estate

millionaires you can find them on amazon

i can say that a lot of you already have

the books give this man a five star

review you can buy the course if you’re

not a member of michael’s course buy the

course i also want to share michael for

your audience for our audience we are

running a special it’s fourth of july so

guess what i’ve got the real estate

coupon the world’s biggest real estate

coupon right here we have general

admission tickets they will sell out

we have general admission tickets for

you’ll see this here 300

300 the discount code is event 300

people can go to re hybrid event

dot com

re like real estate re hybrid event dot

event.com

we’re doing a live event august 11th and

12th michael’s going to be there as our

guest speaker we’ve got mr thatch nguyen

um did you see thatch’s video today

talking about interest rates not yet no

it’s on my to-do list i i love so thatch

nguyen is going to be there you guys

know thatch he’s the burr guy he’s

absolutely incredible he’s going to be

one of our keynote guest speakers along

with michael michael what are you going

to share with the audience and maybe

just some thoughts a little yeah i’ve

been asked to give my kind of state of

the union of housing and a housing

market on august 11th is going to be

very different than today because uh as

we said in episode or part of this

july 20th is a big date so i’m going to

be giving you the the latest and

greatest what’s going on in housing

what’s going on

is it scary how do you do it it’s it’s

it’s

i guarantee you to wake you up

because i’m just going to give it to you

i’ve i got nothing i got nothing to sell

nothing to do i’m going to give you the

straight skinny uh so i’m going to i’m

gonna try to wake you up and hopefully

hopefully everybody sees

uh that wealth can be created in the

next couple years that’s my goal

i love it michael thank you for all that

you do happy fourth of july

we live in a great country where we have

the opportunity to create wealth so

god bless thank you so much michael

appreciate all that you do thank you you

got it take care

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