The Fate of the US Housing Market. Is Rent Control Coming to US? Apartments or Houses? What Happens?

Video Closed Captioning:

often imitated never duplicated matt the

lumberjack landlord and mike zuber from

one rental at a time michael how’s it

going my friend i actually

can breathe

well every day is saturday and uh today

is a particularly good day even though

it’s friday so i’m i’m very happy but we

will save that for episode three yeah

you shared something that was pretty

cool but that will be on episode three

yeah very exciting news very exciting

news we’re really we’re super excited to

be able to share that uh with you and

with your viewers and my viewers it’s

it’s awesome but what i wanted to talk

about first today was

um we were talking a little bit about uh

you know we we continuously consume data

from other content creators right

absolutely we’re trying to vet it you

know kind of see where people are at get

their thoughts get their feelings

ken mcelroy

[Music]

[Laughter]

your favorite guy

honest to god i really don’t like this

guy yeah

ken mcelroy is my revenge consultant

yeah i don’t like that guy either it’s

not hard to get on my list it really i’m

not i’m not nearly as nice of a person

as you are

so uh so i’m watching this video from

ken that you sent over and and uh

you know blah blah blah jump cut jump

cut jump cut because he loses track of

what he’s saying i think other people

put his stuff together for him this is

one of the things that i will never have

a team that puts stuff together for me

everything that you share you put

together everything that i share i put

together it’s experiential yes right

we’ve lived it we’re going through it we

saw that hurdle today

again just another area that differs

from us and so many others

but i’m watching ken all over the place

in this video and then all of a sudden

he ends up with

rent control because no one can afford

rent and because wages haven’t kept up

yeah

yeah so again but he got there out of

nowhere

like

like it was like line you know so so

walk me through it as you see it because

i know you’ll connect the dots for us so

there there’s a couple of things so

first and foremost unlike reventure

consulting which i refuse to follow

anymore because he he has a stick now

yeah everything is 50

everything is crash

i mean

i i don’t even bother right i get sent

videos from him that i don’t even bother

looking at anymore because they’re all

the same i’m like let me guess something

bad and it’s gonna crash well here

here’s the deal folks

uh if you want to know when murders rise

look when ice cream sales go up yeah

there is there is correlation and

causation yeah exactly they are

something that he doesn’t understand but

anyways ken mcroy is still on my list of

stuff i watch

i put out a video this morning that i

watched

it was called just a full disclosure the

fate of the u.s housing market

i’m like interesting i consider myself

residential a housing

i consider ken apartments

i clicked it not knowing which way we

were going to go and now watching this

eight minute video i don’t think ken

knew which way he was going to go

because

he brought up data about housing like

let’s be clear residential housing yes

he talked about inventory being record

lows pretty chart he talked about uh

prices pretty chart yes and then

somewhere in the middle

he kind of reverts to this

unaffordability and rent control

and

again uh knowing

his experience having oh having owned

some of these much smaller but some

he starts basically talking about be

careful of rent control it’s coming to

apartments now he never said apartments

but the language and his experience you

could tell that’s what he was thinking

correct

and

it was um

an interesting leap

it was interestingly to go from

again the data that he shows us and

you’re absolutely right he’s clearly

having some admin or some temp yes pull

charts together and go ken talk about

this and he has so much experience i bet

you he looks at these things for five

seconds he goes i can talk about that

yeah i can talk about that and then

again he knows what he wants the

punchline to be right when ken started

recording this video the punch line was

always going to be red control bad

that’s right not even red control rain

control back that was that was his zing

he starts with houses he starts with

inventory and then he goes here and like

whoa

where does where does that go so

um

that was

yeah that was

and i get it and that was an interesting

leap

yeah i’m i’m watching it and i got an

ice cream headache at like four minutes

and 37 seconds because

the two

ideas were like passing in the night and

now all of a sudden rent control and

single family homes and lack of building

and extra legislation by the way we all

know this you’re building an adu i’m

built tried to build an adu

we’ve been through this we know that

there’s extra legislation we know

there’s extra layers

right yeah but we also know there’s

actually a statute in my state

up for voting this i think it’s this

month

that actually allows for

uh for it to be very very very easy

to create an adu yeah very easy

and so what i would caution people on is

watching these pundits and these people

that don’t do what we do every single

day

the last time he built an adu

it was it probably had to go through you

know noah’s ark

i mean it’s he’s completely disjointed

from what’s occurring in today’s market

and the zoning and the rules need him

to build a 200

unit multi-family differ only slightly

from having to build an adu in a

residential neighborhood yeah

again you gotta you gotta

you always

everybody has an opinion experience and

a point of view right ken is an

apartment guy he is probably has 10 000

units or he has some number that i will

never have never even fathom happy he’s

far richer far smarter blah blah blah

blah blah than me i get it i get it

but we’re talking residential which is

where one rental at a time plays the

last time he looked at a house is a

rental

20 years ago no 25 years ago i mean

whatever yeah and the other thing to

realize is we have rent control in

california but single-family homes is

actually exempt

right right people don’t realize ken is

concerned about rent control because it

will hurt his apartments that’s right

that’s this needs to be very very clear

about that right that’s right um that is

a big concern if you’re a multi-family

guy if you’re a residential single

family good news you got lots of options

right because apartments you only got

one option it’s to be a rental that’s

right if you have a single family home

and you don’t like it you kick them out

clean it up and sell it to owner rock

there’s so many other options so

i get where he’s coming from

and then the last thing i will say about

rent control because i do like him

believe it is bad there’s actually a

well-known economist i wish i had his

name he said there’s only thing

only one thing worse

than rent control for a city for

destruction of housing in this city

think about that one thing that’s worse

than rent control to destroy a city do

you have any guess what that one thing

is

no

bombing it

think about what i just said

the only thing worse than rent control

for a city

is bombing it

that should tell you all you need to

know about how good rent control is

well i mean we’ve so in new hampshire we

don’t have rent control we don’t have it

anywhere we don’t have it single

families multis nothing

and what’s really great what’s been

really great about that is that when a

landlord buys something

he doesn’t you can unearth value there

because you can raise rents but you can

also make a much nicer unit

and start on that track and so what you

find here is a lot of stuff will be kept

up but

it actually allows

for affordable housing to exist and

remain

because there’s plenty of landlords that

just say you know what i’ve owned the

thing for 20 years my mortgage is

exactly what it was i’m getting 1100

bucks a month even though the market’s

1500 or 1600 or 1700 a month but you

know what

whatever it’s fine i’ve got a tenant

that’s happy i’m not going to make that

change

when you institute rent control that’s

exactly what you do you basically make

every proposition where every landlord

has to say i’ve gotta max out my rent

every single year in that place because

if i miss a year i’m never gonna get

that six four five six seven eight

percent back ever yeah there’s there’s a

couple i hope people hear that and i’ll

just give you real practical advice yeah

so my my uh california’s only had rent

control i think for two or three years i

forget what year it actually came in uh

but much of my career didn’t exist so if

you were one of my tenants and you paid

rent on time for 12 months you would not

get a rent bump i just wouldn’t do it

now

gavin newsom says i have to raise your

rent every month or i’m sorry every year

right so

you know my letter to them says gavin

newsom says i have to raise your rent

every year so if you like that vote for

gavin

now i don’t really send that letter but

i really wish i could

well so it was really funny because we

just had somebody move out they’ve been

with us for eight years

and we never raised their rent they were

a fantastic tenant they never had issues

when something would come up they

treated the place like it was their own

and they’d fix it or get it fixed and so

this is something that because we don’t

have rent control here

this is something where for me i was

just like you know what it’s fine let it

roll it’s yeah exactly the numbers work

it’s 30-year fixed-rate debt we’ve got

good tenants there they’ve been there

for eight years the tenants on the other

side of the duplex have been there for

coming this is gonna be their fifth year

so again when you allow the free market

to operate as the free market and allow

business people that have made the

decision to make an investment in a home

and then rent it out

when you just let that

that process play out you’ll end up with

far better results because she even said

matt i was literally waiting for you to

raise the rent every single year because

i knew that if you raised it the 10 or

15 percent i knew that it was gonna be

out of my stretch like we didn’t we just

haven’t made that much more money over

the last eight years

so i think that it’s something that

people really need to consider and most

importantly is people need to understand

that real estate is hyper local hyper

local hyper local so not only are there

states that can make that decision but

there’s

towns and counties that can make that

decision so when you’re evaluating a

market you should really be looking at

is that market

something that a landlord can be

successful in because there’s landlords

successful in every market in the

country

like doing fresno still blows my mind to

this day with the level of success that

you’ve had there but what you do is you

understand what the rules are and you

understand getting into it this is where

i have to play by the rules and be

disciplined to make sure that i get the

return on the other side talk about that

just a little bit mike no you’re

absolutely right right it is so hyper

local for example california is often

thought of as like the thou shall not

invest it is a state right but fresno is

in in california it’s done just fine for

us uh but back to being hyper local

would it shock you that there’s a large

county i think it’s actually the largest

county by geography

uh that has uh eviction moratorium still

in effect yeah it’s lake county right la

county has eviction moratorium in effect

still even though there are calls to end

the emergency order all of that our

governor of course will not do that

because we now call him king newsom

because he has he’s exacted emergency

control and doesn’t have to follow

legislation process and the like so king

newsom

will never give up that power and um

well we got what we got but yeah l.a

county still has an eviction moratorium

i can’t believe it

it’s amazing and i think one of the

things again that everybody really has

to learn when we’re when and and see

what mike and i are constantly talking

about is

rent control sure could it happen here’s

a down paul here’s the downfalls here’s

here’s the things that that it gets you

and here’s the subsequent experiences

that you’ll likely have

but looking at the pundits looking at

these other fee people that are out

there talking their talking points make

sure that you’re aligning yourself with

people that are doing what you’re trying

to go do and also trying to understand

how they look at their market because i

think it’s funny when people think that

they think oh well you’re new hampshire

so that’s kind of red market and so

you’d never invest in a blue market i

think red markets and blue markets both

have positives

yeah i actually yeah it’s amazing prop

13 i do i don’t i love props

i bet you do tell people what prop 13 is

prop 13 is something i believe was

enacted in the late 70s it might have

been the early 80s that basically says

uh you can raise property taxes uh only

one i think it’s 1.3 percent a year uh

and of course in california it’s done at

point of sale so if you own something

say say you bought a house in 2011

after the market fell 75

and you got a discount let’s just

pretend you bought a house for 28 000

that’s worth i don’t know 320 000 today

your property taxes is uh based on the

28 000 purchase price so

your property taxes might be 300 bucks

where somebody down the street’s

property taxes might be five grand

i like prop 13. i bet so to give

everybody an idea of how that works in

new hampshire

in the 21 years i’ve been investing in

new hampshire guess how many times my

taxes have only gone up 1.3 percent

once oh zero

never 1.3 ever

it’s always

three four five all the way up to i’ve

had some properties jump 13 in one year

so they i’ve had more years at zero than

i’ve had at 1.3 percent unbelievable so

again guys these are the details this is

why there’s never too much content to

absorb

this is what you guys have to be putting

together when you’re making your plans

to understanding what’s the likelihood

of rent control is there something like

prop 13 that exists

what are the rules in that area where

you’re looking to invest so you know

going into it these are the things that

i must consider these are things that i

think far too many people

make a mistake on and miss in the

beginning and it costs them big time

because if you’re at eight percent

margin

and something like this exists it brings

you to four guess what that’s not that

good of a deal anymore right no you got

to do your market got to do the work god

it’s just

there’s never an excuse not to do the

work so sure do the work it’s true so

michael how can everybody find you my

friend uh go to your google search bar

type in one retail at a time you should

see a youtube channel a books

instagram website all this stuff uh and

i will go live tomorrow saturday or i’ll

go live saturday depending on when you

watch this 8 a.m for 60 minutes of

questions and then if you’re one of my

students we do another half hour in our

private facebook group it is always a

good time so as i always say we try and

create great content for you please hit

that like button and subscribe and check

mike out on his 11 a.m eastern time 8

a.m pacific time live stream tomorrow

it’s a good time we’re always there in

attendance and there’s usually over 100

people hanging out so yeah we’ve been

we’ve been we’ve gotten over 100 last

couple of times it’s been fun it’s been

a good time so mike thanks so much for

the time look forward to segment number

two got it

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