Video Closed Captioning:
good morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael’s uber one retail at a
time back with the man the myth the
legend and great friend of the channel
and returning 2022 guest mr greg
dickerson how you doing sir doing great
michael looking forward to another year
of these great conversations yeah i look
forward to starting the week with you
every week so thank you again for doing
it for me to you it’s it’s a great treat
to talk to you every monday morning
so what i want to talk about here is
something i have called for the last
month or so i’m going to share it with
you and then kind of see if 80 you agree
maybe disagree maybe you’ll push it off
uh and then b uh talk about the fact
that you know it’s often a great time to
make some money and that is the fact
that i think the fed
has to induce a recession next year i
think they have to get aggressive
eventually tight monetary policies suck
out all of this liquidity which i think
leads to a recession
and uh so i just wanted to talk about
that first so i think a recession
happens sometime next year maybe q2q3
what do you think about that you know i
don’t know about recession you know that
is a reduction in gdp you know for a
sustained period of time of what was it
i’m looking for the definition of two
quarters in a row
no recession is negative gdp two
quarters in a row yeah two okay just
negative not not a certain percentage
not a percentage just negative growth
two quarters in a row okay you know i
don’t know how that happens i mean we’re
not having you know an issue well you
know it depends on how many people are
back to work and you know the the um you
know pandemic and where we stand there
but let’s just say everything’s you know
we’re over that we’re getting back to
work and everything’s going well i don’t
see you see how you can reduce gdp i
think gdp is going to continue to
increase because we’re still kind of
limping along from a supply chain
standpoint
um
you know a lot of things are
artificially propped up because of
inflation prices have gone up yeah so
that’s also going to increase gdp
absolutely right now it’s revenue right
so one of the easiest ways to increase
top line sales raise your prices yeah
and you’re very you’re dead on because
uh just so people know what he’s talking
about q3 gdp growth memory serves was fi
no 3.1
but inflation was 5.2 so again we if you
actually do the math
like for like we were negative two
percent but that’s not how gdp is
calculated so you’re absolutely right
yeah it’s top line sales and the
president can stand up and say hey we
did gdp eight percent you know five of
its inflation yeah or or yeah ten of its
inflation it actually went backwards oh
so it’s interesting so i don’t i don’t
okay see
recession
because you know more and more people
are going back to work there’s still
demand we’re still producing as fast as
we can
um you know the only thing that’s
restricting production right now or
supply chain you know you can’t get
things from overseas um
you know so i just don’t see
that happening but i do see
like we talked about before
you know deleveraging in assets that
could be perceived as recessionary
environment um but you know in terms of
you know slowing down
actual gdp i just don’t see how that’s
possible there’s too much demand yeah
we’re gonna see i i still think a
recession is coming next year i love the
fact that we disagree the only thing
that could happen is maybe the recession
gets pushed to 2023 kind of for the
reasons you’ve outlined this is what
this is what i see coming and just i’ll
just lay the dominoes out and i’m wrong
all the time so but anyways i see the
fed having to get aggressive as we
talked about in episode number two i
don’t think they start aggressive i
think they get behind the curve
and when they’re behind the curve when
cpi gets reported at 11 in q1 for
example then they’re gonna have to slam
on the brakes they’re gonna have to just
come out and i think they’re i think
they have i think they’re gonna have a i
think we’ll have a fed induced recession
because
they’re not gonna get aggressive this
week they’re gonna be late to the party
once again
and then
bad stuff happens next year i’m
hopefully i’m wrong but
how do i see this interesting you know
we haven’t seen through the pandemic
going back to march 2020 you know on we
haven’t seen significant pullback in
consumer spending we still increase yeah
well that’s kind of like five trillion
dollars just raining down on people so
a little bit of that was part of it but
for the average consumer most people
didn’t didn’t take advantage of that you
know you got maybe a little bit of
stimulus you know those types of things
a lot of jobs were lost a lot of
businesses had to close but people even
you know out of work were still out
spending money they still are now
uh you know it’s really interesting um
you know what’s going on with the amount
of people that have exited the workforce
you know there is a lot of wealth out
there because of assets because of the
stock market exactly
yeah you know crypto i mean it’s the
numbers of people that have quit their
jobs to make a full-time living in
crypto i mean it’s a big number i you
know i read an article about it a few
weeks ago 90 000 people or some yeah
it’s it’s that again folks i’ve lived
through this before there’s people that
were making there i had a so i was a
manager back in the dot-com
run-up and i had a direct employee quit
to become a day trader
it worked for like six or seven months
and then he had to go find a job and
again a lot of people have been able to
do that but that’s been you know over
the last year we’ve had a very
extraordinary environment because of to
your point all of the helicopter money
part you know pumped in the economy now
the government you know with their
stimulus spending that’s going to pump a
lot of you know
liquidity into the economy apart from
the fed with infrastructure spending and
things like that so there’s still you
know a bunch of that yet to come but uh
the interesting thing is how many people
even though we have record you know
levels of people unemployed or not
working exiting the workforce you know
that’s not affecting spending which is
where gdp really comes from you know
well let’s play this out again this is
what i see coming and i don’t i don’t
like what i see but it’s what i see so i
have to share it so i think the great d
leverage as we talked about last week
and again in episode one that would be a
lot of wealth destruction right there
are a lot of people that feel good today
because the last 12 months has been easy
to make money i believe the next 12
months and certainly the next six months
won’t be as easy as the last 12 months
people start losing money losing equity
they sell a loss they raise cash they
get scared they retreat they start
spending because of holidays and lo and
behold they got nothing left march or
april that’s kind of what i tax bill
that’s when your tax bills come in so be
ready be ready yeah don’t forget uncle
sam wants his piece so yeah that’s
that’s kind of where i see right now i
just see kind of a
i see the house of cards crumbling kind
of right in front of me i’d love to be
wrong
yeah it’s interesting you know we’ll
we’ll just have to see how it all shakes
out and you would think that if you know
people are going to pull back and start
building reserves up again it’s going to
happen after the first year because you
do have tax season coming we’ve gotten
through the holidays where everybody’s
happy spending they’re not going to pull
back now
uh you know that type of thing you know
record retail sales we got retail sales
i think wednesday i think it’s going to
be a record because again we’ve got 1.3
trillion dollars in excess savings still
we have every freaking retailer telling
us about delays nothing is on sale
people are going to shop till they drop
and then they’re going to turn around in
january or february and oh my god my
credit card bill i got no money left
it’s
the consumer is predictable and that’s
just what i see coming yeah and i saw a
report a few weeks ago that you know
consumer debt you know credit card debt
is on the rise
um you know obviously holidays has a lot
to do with that people have been
spending ahead of the holidays this year
because of delays and shipping but you
know the interesting thing too is a lot
of people are tapping that equity in
their in their real estate in their
house started yeah i saw that yeah so
that’s that’s leaking its way out um you
know into the economy so yeah it’ll be
interesting to see you know recession
it’s just hard to see that because we
really didn’t even have one
in the pandemic other than just being
shut down yeah we kind of introduced
yeah yeah yeah once we were able to open
back up boom is off to the races so
you know uh i think we still have more
opening to do we still we still have
more you know production that we have
not um you know put back into the system
yet so it’ll be interesting to see yeah
i i love this conversation we just
disagree i think i think um
yeah
that’s why i talk to experts just to
kind of round out my decision i don’t
pretend to be right all the time i just
kind of share what i share and we’ll see
what’s going forward so again the reason
i wanted to talk about a recession
specifically with you as an entrepreneur
is if we have one and again we will have
one is it next year the year after the
business cycle is undefeated recessions
are a great time to make some money if
you’re prepared is that fair to say yeah
absolutely you know you want to have
cash and or resources available to take
advantage of opportunities in
recessionary times just like any any
time you know markets when they’re up
times are good but it’s a lot of times
it’s harder to make money in a bull
market especially in the peaks of it um
it’s much easier when you know you’re
back in those valleys again uh and able
to take advantage of opportunities
looking for the next round and you know
we saw some of that with all the
businesses that you know unfortunately
went out of business a lot of new ones
are reopening when real estate values go
down people jump in
you know when stocks are
you know tapering and deleveraging
people jump in and buy them and then you
can ride it back up you know most of the
people who have made significant money
in crypto have all made it in the last
year that were newer uh when they bought
in you know after the pandemic and wrote
it up and you know it’s a little bit
more difficult now uh and then the ones
that made the real money are the ones
that bought in you know two years ago
and right those things so it’s a little
different now you know and that’s where
your opportunities are going to come in
as we deliver you know as things slow
down you know prices change and it
creates opportunity to go in there and
create value create equity uh and you
know take advantage of those
opportunities very cool it’s a lot of
fun so again if you were going to call a
recession you’re certainly not calling
one next year would you put one out 2023
2024 or just you know see one coming for
a while
i just don’t see it happening
in the sense that we’ve experienced them
before especially
with
fed policy because if things start to go
south they’re just going to jump right
back in yeah that’s and that’s the
bugaboo right i don’t think the that’s
where i that’s where
my opinion hinges on that right i
believe the fed can’t do what it’s done
the last five times which is the fed put
i believe they realize now they’ve got
it they’ve got to suffer short-term pain
a la paul volcker or this thing just
explodes so now if they pull if they
pull the plug and the fed you know just
lets rates go up and they they are not
uh pumping liquidity they’re not buying
bonds assets you know things like that
and they just let it play out then yeah
you could you could potentially see some
recessionary environment then because
prices will rise people will pull back
they stop spending you stop spinning you
stop producing and the whole
trickle-down effect
um
you know but that would that would be
the catalyst and
i’m just not sure and you have an
election year coming then the fed’s
going to pull the foot off the gas yeah
we’ll see it’s going to be
this is this next year is going to be
very interesting 2022 won’t be like 2021
2021 was kind of
again it was it was kind of the leverage
was building i think 2022 is going to be
very interesting for entrepreneurs and
investors so stay tuned
big year coming we’ll be there we’ll be
right there with you to take you know
show you how to take advantage of it and
we’re going to be talking about specific
ways to do that so 2022 is gonna be a
lot of fun yes sir and how can people
follow you
greg dickerson.com that’s where all my
info is youtube podcast go check it out
thank you buddy