Nov 27 Financial News: Stocks and Crypto On Sale? Or Start of Risk off, The Week Ahead, Inflation

Video Closed Caption: 

 

at a time it is saturday

november 27th

and yes we will be doing our

saturday live stream at 8 a.m or about

29 minutes

real quick a lot of you ask

wanted to show you happy she went ahead

and got her hair cut yesterday she is

looking much much better

and then sunny actually got his first

cut yesterday he was looking kind of

scraggly but yes oh thank you thank you

thank you so yes uh they’re they got

their a holiday cut and they are looking

much much better so thank you for asking

i appreciate that um

yeah pretty cool so uh as for the daily

financial news this morning one thing i

want to know from my audience is

i am curious did any of you buy the dip

yesterday

uh the stock market or the dow was down

roughly a thousand points crypto bear

market all of those things

i’m just curious yesterday as i shared

earlier in the week was a half day

it was going to be light volume and the

professionals if you will

were out so i’m just curious

did anybody uh did anybody treat the

stock market like a black friday sale if

you did i’m just curious what’d you buy

i would love to hear what folks out

there buying again i am a spectator not

a fan i hope stocks go to the moon

they don’t at least not in a straight

line so i’m curious did anybody step up

and buy anything

i’m just curious what my audience is

looking at so let me know uh it looks

like early results from black friday

again remember my call is this is going

to be a record breaker i believe the

excess savings i believe the mantra of

shortages

is going to

cause people to buy and buy early and

buy often

and we shall see so mastercard i just

got the data here mastercard okay okay

you can go down

uh looks like early results for

mastercard were up 12

12.1 percent

uh versus 2020 which is interesting 2020

was a very

um online based black friday if you

recall

looks like online was up five percent

this year which is impressive given that

online was up something like 65 percent

last year so

five percent on 65 percent growth is

pretty impressive uh same store sales

same store sales were up 40 so these are

physical locations

so again a lot of the malls were lightly

trafficked last year i seem to recall

i think we went to a mall last year and

it was very empty i think it might have

been saturday so it might have been

today but anyways again traffic or

purchases at physical locations up 40

from last year

apparel

again these are all early indications

from uh mastercard it’s called snap

surveys something that they can run

anytime they want so they did this

apparel was up 48 year on year and

electronics up 15 so

interesting stuff we are going to have

to watch it uh in addition to that

other folks are reporting what we’ve

talked about on this channel for three

or four weeks now uh shoppers are

expected to be down as far as like

bodies however because deals are down

meaning discounts

advertising is down that holiday profit

is going to be record-breaking for

retailers right now the estimate is

americans will spend between

843

and 859

billion dollars

during the holidays

that’s that’s a lot

that’s a lot i hope you’re not doing

that on credit card i hope you really

hope you’re not doing on that buy now

pay later

stuff that is um

that is not going to help you it’s going

to make you feel good for the moment and

then just

very very bad so if you can’t pay cash

twice don’t buy it

something interesting is going on in the

uk uh remember when we had the whole

great toilet paper

you know issue a year or two ago it

looks like the uk is setting it up for

liquor stores

uh apparently there is a lot of messages

that the uk could be out of liquor wine

and spirits by christmas

just like every time this happens

you put a little thing out

in the news

people get all spun up and what do they

do

they rush out and buy liquor and spirits

and bingo bango you have created a

self-fulfilling prophecy this is

occurring across our supply chain this

is occurring across lots of different

things

it is predictable human behavior is

predictable you tell there’s a going to

be a shortage they will go buy it early

because we can’t do without even if we

don’t need it

even if you don’t drink wine or spirits

you may go out and buy a bottle just in

case

crazy stuff

so a couple of things as we look out to

next week i always like to do that on

the weekend

we will go through earnings first and

economic data second kind of splitting

those up

stocks next week monday

monday is really going to be about the

market right are we going to continue

the fear-based uh sell-off are we going

to be have stopped losses washed out or

more likely are the buy-to-dip fans

going to come back in and realize that

maybe there was a sale on some of their

stocks

it was it was it was interesting to

watch oil get hit so hard uh in others

so we shall see obviously there’s been a

lot of travel restrictions implemented

i’ve seen some additional articles about

hey this thing’s not yet in the u.s

if this goes like the delta virus it’s

already here folks

it’s already here we just haven’t found

it yet

it’s

this is kind of becoming repetitive just

with different names if you know what i

mean so it’s probably already here

and we’ll find it over the next

seven to 14 days

we shall see

tuesday we got salesforce

box

netapp and z scalar very technology

based are we still buying cloud-based

applications uh are we is netapp uh

still killing it or is it more like

cisco remember cisco systems from last

no two weeks ago

three weeks ago i know two weeks ago

where they missed basically rest the

world wasn’t doing so well so what’s

going on there

wednesday crowd strike and snowflake

uh will be interesting thursday dollar

general remember dollar tree already is

no longer the dollar tree it’s the

dollar 25 tree uh what’s going on with

dollar general are they seeing the same

inflation and the answer is yes will

they recognize it will they do something

about it we shall see we also have

kroger ulta beauty and docusign

and then friday big lots

again a lot of retailers in tech next

week as far as earnings go

and then as far as economic information

lots of real estate or housing

information starting off big on monday

with pending home sales

then we have tuesday fhfa home price

index we have case shiller and then we

have consumer confidence

i’m looking forward to consumer

confidence it’s obviously a report that

was taken before

this latest scare and actually that is

interesting to me i want to know what’s

going on with consumer confidence

because

right now it feels like to me the

consumers are saying

i’m scared but they are acting like i

have endless amounts of money

the consumer is fickle you don’t listen

to what they say you listen to what they

do

and right now i think it’s pretty

obvious they are shopping until they’re

dropping we shall see it’ll be

interesting wednesday wednesday’s

december 1st

where did this year go

wow december 1st anyways wednesday we

have adp report our first look at job

creations for november uh that um

it’ll be interesting but the real number

is friday then we have construction

spending what is going on there again

big capital projects are they getting

off the snide or not

thursday jobless claims remember last

week 199 was it a fluke was it dirty

data is there a revision we shall see

but yes jobless claims will be coming

out thursday and then friday we got

factory orders and the number that you

and i are going to play over under right

now

i tried to look at the expectations i

did some google searches and could not

find anybody declaring an expectation

for the jobs report so i made one up and

you’re going to play with me

so the jobs report last month remember i

nailed i think the expect or i think i

called

535 and it was 5 31 close enough

this time we’re going to call the jobs

creation for november

650 000.

that is your over under if you want to

play over under just say over or under i

will know what you mean

so the over under is 650 i am going to

call

676.

why not

ah why not

so let me know what you think over under

and if you really want to be brave put a

number out there and then we can

celebrate you on friday afternoon if

somebody gets it right

the chances i get it right twice not

very good but hey let’s see what happens

and then finally i want to go back and

talk about inflation there’s more and

more it’s really funny on inflation like

six weeks ago eight weeks ago people

were talking about my 1970s comparison

as illogical

and complete more and more articles are

coming out with

you know what this is kind of like the

70 just with different things and i’m

like

thank you for coming along where were

you two months ago when people were

making fun of me so here we go 1970s

supply issues

wage spikes

price controls

fed ignores inflation those are the four

things that made up the 70s of those

four what do we have we have

supply issues

we have wage spikes

we don’t yet

and i want to underscore yet

have price controls of any meaningful

nature

and the fed is obviously ignoring or

jawboning inflation

so i think we have three of those four i

think wage inflation as the 1970s showed

us is the one that is sticky in the

1970s what happened

workers

had the power

um

unions went on strike and extracted

rightly so good for the employees higher

wages that became higher cost structures

which led to higher prices

on and on and on that is happening right

now wage inflation is the thing and oh

by the way one more time for the folks

in the back of the room

oil

was the issue in the 70s i believe the

i don’t know the workable hour is our

current constraint think look at all the

job openings look at all these people

starting a shift and not ending the

shift

it is the hourly worker that is the

constraint and that will be sticky

longer so that’s what i got remember

folks we are playing over under today

the over under number is 650 this is a

friday jobs creation for november and

please play over under and then if you

want leave a second comment with your

guess of a number and if you get it

right and we’ll call get it right within

one percent why not

have a wonderful day folks remember we

will be going live in 17 minutes doing

an hour of q a your questions my answers

and then if you’re one of my students i

will go over to our private facebook

group for a half hour and then lastly

i’m interviewing a student who did a 6.6

house portfolio deal in texas

they leveraged non-qm lender velocity

mortgage so we are going to hear about

how we found it how we financed it what

the process was like that will occur at

9 30 my time

so lots of stuff we are doing for you

today have a wonderful day i hope you

are enjoying your weekend again remember

how to get started one rental at a time

is changing lives

thousands of students uh are doing the

work every day time to buy it time to do

the work because it will be more

expensive in about 34 days

you’re gonna buy it anyway buy it today

start doing the work take care bye

 

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.