Video Closed Caption:
at a time it is saturday
november 27th
and yes we will be doing our
saturday live stream at 8 a.m or about
29 minutes
real quick a lot of you ask
wanted to show you happy she went ahead
and got her hair cut yesterday she is
looking much much better
and then sunny actually got his first
cut yesterday he was looking kind of
scraggly but yes oh thank you thank you
thank you so yes uh they’re they got
their a holiday cut and they are looking
much much better so thank you for asking
i appreciate that um
yeah pretty cool so uh as for the daily
financial news this morning one thing i
want to know from my audience is
i am curious did any of you buy the dip
yesterday
uh the stock market or the dow was down
roughly a thousand points crypto bear
market all of those things
i’m just curious yesterday as i shared
earlier in the week was a half day
it was going to be light volume and the
professionals if you will
were out so i’m just curious
did anybody uh did anybody treat the
stock market like a black friday sale if
you did i’m just curious what’d you buy
i would love to hear what folks out
there buying again i am a spectator not
a fan i hope stocks go to the moon
they don’t at least not in a straight
line so i’m curious did anybody step up
and buy anything
i’m just curious what my audience is
looking at so let me know uh it looks
like early results from black friday
again remember my call is this is going
to be a record breaker i believe the
excess savings i believe the mantra of
shortages
is going to
cause people to buy and buy early and
buy often
and we shall see so mastercard i just
got the data here mastercard okay okay
you can go down
uh looks like early results for
mastercard were up 12
12.1 percent
uh versus 2020 which is interesting 2020
was a very
um online based black friday if you
recall
looks like online was up five percent
this year which is impressive given that
online was up something like 65 percent
last year so
five percent on 65 percent growth is
pretty impressive uh same store sales
same store sales were up 40 so these are
physical locations
so again a lot of the malls were lightly
trafficked last year i seem to recall
i think we went to a mall last year and
it was very empty i think it might have
been saturday so it might have been
today but anyways again traffic or
purchases at physical locations up 40
from last year
apparel
again these are all early indications
from uh mastercard it’s called snap
surveys something that they can run
anytime they want so they did this
apparel was up 48 year on year and
electronics up 15 so
interesting stuff we are going to have
to watch it uh in addition to that
other folks are reporting what we’ve
talked about on this channel for three
or four weeks now uh shoppers are
expected to be down as far as like
bodies however because deals are down
meaning discounts
advertising is down that holiday profit
is going to be record-breaking for
retailers right now the estimate is
americans will spend between
843
and 859
billion dollars
during the holidays
that’s that’s a lot
that’s a lot i hope you’re not doing
that on credit card i hope you really
hope you’re not doing on that buy now
pay later
stuff that is um
that is not going to help you it’s going
to make you feel good for the moment and
then just
very very bad so if you can’t pay cash
twice don’t buy it
something interesting is going on in the
uk uh remember when we had the whole
great toilet paper
you know issue a year or two ago it
looks like the uk is setting it up for
liquor stores
uh apparently there is a lot of messages
that the uk could be out of liquor wine
and spirits by christmas
just like every time this happens
you put a little thing out
in the news
people get all spun up and what do they
do
they rush out and buy liquor and spirits
and bingo bango you have created a
self-fulfilling prophecy this is
occurring across our supply chain this
is occurring across lots of different
things
it is predictable human behavior is
predictable you tell there’s a going to
be a shortage they will go buy it early
because we can’t do without even if we
don’t need it
even if you don’t drink wine or spirits
you may go out and buy a bottle just in
case
crazy stuff
so a couple of things as we look out to
next week i always like to do that on
the weekend
we will go through earnings first and
economic data second kind of splitting
those up
stocks next week monday
monday is really going to be about the
market right are we going to continue
the fear-based uh sell-off are we going
to be have stopped losses washed out or
more likely are the buy-to-dip fans
going to come back in and realize that
maybe there was a sale on some of their
stocks
it was it was it was interesting to
watch oil get hit so hard uh in others
so we shall see obviously there’s been a
lot of travel restrictions implemented
i’ve seen some additional articles about
hey this thing’s not yet in the u.s
if this goes like the delta virus it’s
already here folks
it’s already here we just haven’t found
it yet
it’s
this is kind of becoming repetitive just
with different names if you know what i
mean so it’s probably already here
and we’ll find it over the next
seven to 14 days
we shall see
tuesday we got salesforce
box
netapp and z scalar very technology
based are we still buying cloud-based
applications uh are we is netapp uh
still killing it or is it more like
cisco remember cisco systems from last
no two weeks ago
three weeks ago i know two weeks ago
where they missed basically rest the
world wasn’t doing so well so what’s
going on there
wednesday crowd strike and snowflake
uh will be interesting thursday dollar
general remember dollar tree already is
no longer the dollar tree it’s the
dollar 25 tree uh what’s going on with
dollar general are they seeing the same
inflation and the answer is yes will
they recognize it will they do something
about it we shall see we also have
kroger ulta beauty and docusign
and then friday big lots
again a lot of retailers in tech next
week as far as earnings go
and then as far as economic information
lots of real estate or housing
information starting off big on monday
with pending home sales
then we have tuesday fhfa home price
index we have case shiller and then we
have consumer confidence
i’m looking forward to consumer
confidence it’s obviously a report that
was taken before
this latest scare and actually that is
interesting to me i want to know what’s
going on with consumer confidence
because
right now it feels like to me the
consumers are saying
i’m scared but they are acting like i
have endless amounts of money
the consumer is fickle you don’t listen
to what they say you listen to what they
do
and right now i think it’s pretty
obvious they are shopping until they’re
dropping we shall see it’ll be
interesting wednesday wednesday’s
december 1st
where did this year go
wow december 1st anyways wednesday we
have adp report our first look at job
creations for november uh that um
it’ll be interesting but the real number
is friday then we have construction
spending what is going on there again
big capital projects are they getting
off the snide or not
thursday jobless claims remember last
week 199 was it a fluke was it dirty
data is there a revision we shall see
but yes jobless claims will be coming
out thursday and then friday we got
factory orders and the number that you
and i are going to play over under right
now
i tried to look at the expectations i
did some google searches and could not
find anybody declaring an expectation
for the jobs report so i made one up and
you’re going to play with me
so the jobs report last month remember i
nailed i think the expect or i think i
called
535 and it was 5 31 close enough
this time we’re going to call the jobs
creation for november
650 000.
that is your over under if you want to
play over under just say over or under i
will know what you mean
so the over under is 650 i am going to
call
676.
why not
ah why not
so let me know what you think over under
and if you really want to be brave put a
number out there and then we can
celebrate you on friday afternoon if
somebody gets it right
the chances i get it right twice not
very good but hey let’s see what happens
and then finally i want to go back and
talk about inflation there’s more and
more it’s really funny on inflation like
six weeks ago eight weeks ago people
were talking about my 1970s comparison
as illogical
and complete more and more articles are
coming out with
you know what this is kind of like the
70 just with different things and i’m
like
thank you for coming along where were
you two months ago when people were
making fun of me so here we go 1970s
supply issues
wage spikes
price controls
fed ignores inflation those are the four
things that made up the 70s of those
four what do we have we have
supply issues
we have wage spikes
we don’t yet
and i want to underscore yet
have price controls of any meaningful
nature
and the fed is obviously ignoring or
jawboning inflation
so i think we have three of those four i
think wage inflation as the 1970s showed
us is the one that is sticky in the
1970s what happened
workers
had the power
um
unions went on strike and extracted
rightly so good for the employees higher
wages that became higher cost structures
which led to higher prices
on and on and on that is happening right
now wage inflation is the thing and oh
by the way one more time for the folks
in the back of the room
oil
was the issue in the 70s i believe the
i don’t know the workable hour is our
current constraint think look at all the
job openings look at all these people
starting a shift and not ending the
shift
it is the hourly worker that is the
constraint and that will be sticky
longer so that’s what i got remember
folks we are playing over under today
the over under number is 650 this is a
friday jobs creation for november and
please play over under and then if you
want leave a second comment with your
guess of a number and if you get it
right and we’ll call get it right within
one percent why not
have a wonderful day folks remember we
will be going live in 17 minutes doing
an hour of q a your questions my answers
and then if you’re one of my students i
will go over to our private facebook
group for a half hour and then lastly
i’m interviewing a student who did a 6.6
house portfolio deal in texas
they leveraged non-qm lender velocity
mortgage so we are going to hear about
how we found it how we financed it what
the process was like that will occur at
9 30 my time
so lots of stuff we are doing for you
today have a wonderful day i hope you
are enjoying your weekend again remember
how to get started one rental at a time
is changing lives
thousands of students uh are doing the
work every day time to buy it time to do
the work because it will be more
expensive in about 34 days
you’re gonna buy it anyway buy it today
start doing the work take care bye