MeetKevin Talks 1% Rise in Mortgage Rates equals 10% Price Drop. He Forgets Correlation – Causation

Video Closed Captioning:

Good morning good afternoon, good evening.

folks, Michael uber one rental at a

time back with the man myth, the legend

and somebody who’s helping one rental at

a time fans everyday matt the mortgage

guy, how you are doing, buddy I’m doing great

yeah, we might as well plug it upfront

greatmortgagebroker.com if you want good

advice let us know where you’re at how

we can help and uh another quick plug

for a look at that studio behind you, man

just coming together nicely fancy

I’m having fun I’m like what do I put on

the shelf now like what like yeah

yeah, let’s think about it. It’s fun; it’s

cool, yeah, it looks good. Thank you, buddy

I appreciate it. Hey, one of the things we

were talking about off-camera is good

old boy meets Kevin

the man with 20 million dollars in cash

now is jumped on the crash videos

and i think he put out a video just the

other day i have not watched it you have

seen it where basically he’s parroting

the standard rule of rates go up one

percent real estate will crash 10

percent nonsense yeah and and and in

fairness he said a lot of stuff that was

one of the things I disagreed with a lot

of the stuff I did agree with you know

because 20 000 or besides 20 million

cash the guys got 20 million in real

estate so they get so the guy is a big

fan of real estate that’s where he

started yeah is you know real estate

agent slash investor um so

um

i i think he’s

on the spectrum of of fear-mongering not

that far towards you know a fud type of

person who says markets are all crashing

but one thing i pulled out of it that i

just i

it makes me crazy when people say it is

interest rates go up one percent housing

goes down 10

like it’s just not true um for a number

of reasons the first one being

there’s multiple things

that go into

real estate prices right and you and

it’s not just like interest rate is this

prices do this no there’s supply and

demand there’s buyer sentiment there’s

all kinds of things that we have to

factor in not just the rate well here’s

the deal Kevin wasn’t even born in the

70s the 1970s show how just

irrational this assumption is rates went

up in the 70s 600 basis points 6

which again given this logic means

prices should have fallen 60 percent

it’s

and it didn’t happen property actually

went up because what people aren’t

talking about today and kevin’s not old

enough to remember this or has read

about it yet is wage inflation why is

inflation raging right now is because of

wages why can people buy more housing

because wages are up we live in a

payment based society

rates went up 600 basis points

properties doubled in a decade

that’s not supposed to happen because

wages went up 88 or 91 or something

it is far more complex than this what i

want to tell people all the time when i

hear this nonsense about go up one

percent and it falls 10

is if that is true

when ice cream sales go up

murders go up

there’s this thing called correlation in

causation

think about that

when does ice cream go up in the summer

when do murders go up in the sit in the

cities in the summer

just how it seems to work right more

people are out more people are getting

into trouble it are murders caused by

ice cream sales

no they just police officers should

stand in front of leather bees and just

do not let folks in yeah just close all

ice cream stores

that’s it’s

yeah it’s my blog and then a lot of

people point to cue Kevin specifically

points to q4 2018

he talks about his market of la being

down 12

it didn’t happen

that’s nowhere in the charts there’s not

a chart that you can show me that shows

la county going down 12 in a quarter

it’s it’s maybe bad memory but if you

could show me a chart I’d love to see it

because i know he says it but just

because someone says it doesn’t make it

true right yeah and i mean i think for

me for a simple-minded me who wants to

you know even for people that haven’t

been around for decades

if you want a simple example i literally

had a comment in in my youtube channel

that said quick plug matt the mortgage

guy on youtube go check it out um

when rates go to five percent it’s game

over for real estate and I was like um

incorrect you know the

previous

2018 is not that far ago prove that that

was false you can look at the end of 17

to the end of 18 and rates for all

intensive purposes went from four

percent to five percent they did um

they’ve already gone up one percent and

we can’t say that doesn’t have an effect

on real estate because i think that it

hasn’t played out yet right yeah of

course but

if we look back at that one percent

increase where rates went all the way to

five percent

the effect it had on real estate for for

my p brain just looking at a chart

median sales price of houses

it made

real estate kind of flatten outright

and you know I don’t know what the final

numbers were for 18 and 19 but you know

5 7 home price appreciation you know

a lot calmer than we’ve seen today

because then you see 2020 when rates go

down and it’s just off to the races for

real estate prices right but to think

that rates going to 5 is going to end

it’s going to cause a crash it’s it’s

going to have this dramatic effect on

real estate is just we don’t have to

look back that far to say that’s not

what happened that’s not what happened

will it slow things down i’m sure it

will will it cause you know

things to go from 15 17 home price

appreciation down to 5

a truthful like healthy level

i hope so and probably right but a

thirty percent crash because rates go to

five percent is just not in the cards

and one thing to think about for

everybody is

there’s there’s more than one or two

variables here yes right it’s not like

rates this real estate prices this

there’s supply and demand and all the

other things that go into it um

that we got to look at so um you know i

try to keep things simple and on my

channel that’s all i do is like if my

simple brain can understand it i hope

you can too let’s look back at the last

time rates went to five percent

did real estate crash and crumble no no

yeah so I’ve been doing this for 20 some

odd years i’ve i was buying deals with

six seven percent i’ve actually i’ve

actually bought property with 12 hard

money loans so I’ve been doing this

quite a while

and

what happens when rates go up fast is

transactions slow

they do

right and again when transit when the

mortgage rate got all the way up to i

think it was 16 and a half percent in 83

did real estate crash nope

real estate transactions crashed they

fell 50

that’s a crash

values didn’t change because of wages

wages were up

folks we are in a wage inflation cycle

if wages were flat

or negative

yeah we’d have a problem but that’s just

not the world we’re in today everybody

everything i’m looking at wages are at

five six seven eight nine percent

maybe they’re not for you but again

mortgages are built on um

you know the

community of buyers so wages are up it’s

just right yeah and i mean everybody’s

got something to point to where they

think that this whole

imbalance of supply versus demand gets

fixed overnight you know some people say

foreclosures some people say there’s

more building than than ever and you

know they’ve got multitude of things to

point to

i think

that

one we’ve already seen people coming out

of forbearance are not foreclosing the

data is as clear not there if you want a

fear monger say oh look at foreclosure

numbers they’re up thirty percent

oh yeah they’re up they’re up from a

period where you couldn’t foreclose yeah

they’re also 80 87

right right yeah you look at it versus

the same time period in 2020 January or

2020 of 19 we’re actually down like 50

plus percent on foreclosures um and so

that’s not going to help the the

building

although it’s happening more than it has

in the past it’s still not enough right

and it’s not coming online builders just

came out yesterday homebuilders survey

talking about garage doors windows

and cabinets they’re having months of

dead days so yeah an in-process home is

not make it livable right and then the

funny part is two people like all this

building that’s going on this stuff’s

gonna hit the market it’s gonna flood

the market inventory if you don’t know

how it works I’ll give you a quick sneak

peek i already sold three six nine 12

months before they’re built they’re sold

yeah this is not completely sold out

it’s not empty inventory right yeah they

don’t wait until it’s like okay we’re

done who wants one and then 400 houses

come on the market right like everyone

has been spoken for

180 days before the thing is livable

yeah it’s funny i do find it really

interesting that meet Kevin he has i’ve

actually seen him go from Kathy wood to

peter Schiff

Kathy wood right where he was buying all

these crazy stocks with high valuations

and no earnings

sold out of that now he’s got peter

Schiff he’s buying gold and stuff it’s

it’s it’s really interesting so he’s

he’s he is uh he’s gone from one extreme

to the other for sure yeah i haven’t

watched much of this stuff lately i’ve

always enjoyed him uh seems like uh you

know

great dude but i feels like uh you know

with all this turbulence in the market

he might be spinning out a little bit

right now that’s what I thought i told

him i told him i think i did a video on

it i was like Kevin dude you need to

take a week off and get away from this

because you’re on tilt and if you ever

played poker going on tilt’s not a good

thing right right yeah crazy stuff well

let’s let’s plug

greatmortgagebroker.com again because

again you’re helping people in my

community every day which i appreciate

and if you’re even working with someone

else and you want a second opinion reach

out to his team how do you want them to

do that go to greatmortgagebroker.com

yeah and like mike said just let us know

where you’re at how we can help if

you’re working with somebody else

sometimes it’s just us saying yep it

looks good yeah or other times it’s

saying well that doesn’t seem right you

know i talked to more people and I think

i surprised people i talked to someone

this weekend and i and I said you know

they had been working with a mortgage

broker that helped them with five deals

last year i said i think you’re set

they’ve got all your stuff ask this

question that question and let me know

on Monday or Tuesday if you want to

circle back with us but they should be

able to take care of you got all the

same stuff i’ve got here’s the two

questions you want to ask there you go

very cool thanks buddy for all you thank

you for being a part of the channel take

care thanks mike

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