uber one rental at a time it is of
course
your daily financial news
uh what i got for you today first and
foremost remember 8 a.m pacific or in
about 30 minutes
we will be going live for one hours of q
a
typically we talk real estate economy
the fed things of that nature
come join come have a party i will do my
best to recognize everyone that joins
say quick hello i’m still at the level
where i generally can do that so come on
by 8 a.m pacific we go for 60 minutes
and then if you are one of my students
don’t forget that at nine o’clock we
will be going live in our little private
facebook group where we can have a more
intimate discussion so um look forward
to all of that so
uh when i look at the financial news of
the morning a couple of things come to
mind uh let’s talk about the week ahead
something i always try to do saturday or
sunday is give you some color on what is
what is going on
uh monday uh we get earnings from nike
nike’s going to be interesting
for a couple of reasons first and
foremost remember nike was the
validation
90 days ago that the chinese consumer
was backing off remember we got our
first signal from starbucks
and then nike validated so again we’re
going to be looking to see
nike’s earnings if they once again
highlight weakness
weakness in
china which again i believe the chinese
economy is not nearly as strong
as many think it is
tuesday we have nvidia’s investor date
which is interesting the chip sector has
been getting hit a lot it will be
interesting to see
what they are talking about as far as
backlog and delays and things of that
nature
along with adobe right adobe is one of
those uh cloud-based uh software
solutions that’s had a good run uh we
will see uh what they have to say
wednesday is a big day we get general
mills it’s a food producer how bad is
inflation how bad is shipping how bad is
what do they expect
from the rest of the world right general
mills produces stuff that takes wheat as
an input
and if you haven’t been paying attention
wheat has been skyrocketing so will
general mills
highlight
food inflation will they talk about
hedges they may have had in place to
protect themselves it will be
interesting and then kb homes
kb homes kind of a first time home buyer
builder
what is going on what have they seen
are they seeing
buyers back out see home builders home
this is where you’re going to see some
of the cracks
because what happens
you walk in with your husband wife
boyfriend girlfriend solo whatever it is
you sign on a contract to buy a home
it’s
going to be delivered
three six seven months from now you have
quite a bit of interest rate risk
i wonder how many people are cancelling
contracts
think about it think about it seriously
you may have signed a contract where the
30 year was at three percent it’s at
four and a half now
that’s a different payment
so again it’ll be interesting to see uh
where cracks are in new home builders i
suspect
it’s a little early it will be next
quarter where we see the pain uh but it
will be interesting to see if kb homes
gives us any indication i don’t expect
it
but i wouldn’t be shocked if they say
something thursday big day darden
restaurants garden restaurants kind of
that
middle of the road uh
restaurant tour it’ll be interesting to
see if we’re getting out enjoying
services uh it’ll be interesting to talk
about wages right they’ve talked about
historically having a problem hiring
folks of their raising prices what is
going on there and then friday
the big number of the week every week
there’s a big economic number seemingly
this friday is consumer sentiment
folks the last report on consumer
sentiment was the worst in 11 years
how could this report not be even worse
the consumer is getting smacked
repeatedly it’s like walking into the
ring and getting hit by mike tyson over
and over and over again
on wednesday of this past week i told
you that i thought the consumer cracked
right i got multiple uh communications
from brokers and agents saying buyers
are backing out
higher gas higher food higher housing
price higher interest rate it’s higher
higher higher so it’ll be interesting to
see if consumer sentiment validates that
looking at the average 30-year mortgage
is interesting i did that yesterday
40-year mortgage average
4.16
first time it’s over 4.1 since may of
2019 just last week i think it was 4.03
so still going up
one year ago
just for grins
3.09 percent
i think it was uh redfin might have been
zillow put out an article yesterday
that said if you waited a year to buy
your home
like for like
you are now spending
27
more
to buy your home i hope you did not
listen to all of those crash idiots
uh talking about this and that crash it
the math was never there
the setup was never there
sure the price may be as high or higher
than last time but if you watch my
channel you know it is not price it is
payment
if you took action and you found a good
deal last year you were sitting on
probably
10 to 15 appreciation and most
importantly you have locked in
cheap
money
so hopefully you did that hopefully you
did not listen to the crash folks
looks like new home construction is
something we’re going to have to be
looking at
we have now started the most new home
since 2006.
new home construction went up 22
year on year
in a pretty impressive 6.8
month on month
i want to call
not quite bs
but i want to tie
multiple points together
what is something we’ve been talking
about with builders the last six to nine
months
if you’ve been on my channel you we’ve
been introduced to this concept called
dead days
dead days simply said are days where
there’s no activity going on on a house
being built
in addition we have heard about builders
waiting for supplies so they are
laying foundations
if you lay a foundation
you technically have started the house
even though if you lay the foundation
now and you have no problems no plans to
start building the sticks or the frames
it still counts so i suspect nobody has
done the work
to really realize
we got a bunch of pads we got a bunch of
foundations we have no frames i believe
much of this new home construction is
simply economic reporters not tying
together multiple data points so we
shall see
national association of realtors does
estimate that the u.s is short 5.2
million homes
basically over the last decade
we are short over 5 million homes
yesterday i talked about two fed
presidents calling for half a point rate
increase one was james bullard and i
blanked on the second so i made sure to
write it down today his name is chris
waller
he is saying
these are his words i am quoting
the data screams
50 basis point
uh 50 basis point chris wants to front
load
multiple 50 basis point raises
and he says we need to
just do it
and stop talking about it well no joke
chris where the hell were you two days
ago or three days ago
very disappointing
but it does look like our may
fed meeting which is the next one
i don’t know what the odds are i’ll go
look them up
but it looks like
the fed
is telling wall street 50 basis points
is coming at least that’s what it feels
like as of this morning
again i already talked about waiting one
year cost you 27
think about that
you buy a house last year it cost you a
thousand dollar payment i’m just doing a
thousand dollars because it’s easy math
now you want to buy the same house
you’re spending twelve hundred and
seventy dollars
again i hope you did the work i hope you
hope you got your cheap 30-year money
and you were not swayed by people
talking about crashes people talk about
crashes because it makes them money not
because it makes you money
terrible
uh february housing numbers are out kind
of total statistics
729 000 listings that’s of all types
that is down 27 or no down 25 year on
year
and it’s down 48
from two years ago
pretty crazy
fannie mae is watching this channel
folks it’s pretty crazy fannie mae is
now calling for real estate transactions
to fall this year
i keep telling you we could have
a housing crash but it would be
transactions not price fannie mae now is
estimating 4.1
decline
in transactions
looks like credit cards are going up
again i am nervous about the consumer
credit card uh balance now is
856 billion dollars uh that is now a
record it grew the fastest in the last
quarter in 22 years
that’s i
it bothers me every time somebody talks
about 1.2 trillion dollars in excess
savings
i
nobody gave gave me the data but my
guess is the top 10 percent has most of
that savings and the other 90
of americans are now living on credit
cards it’s not good
mark mobius
another rich white guy
mark mobius is saying the fed in order
to get ahead of inflation will
ultimately have to get the fed funds
rate
fed funds to over seven percent
can you imagine i’m not saying that’s
gonna happen i’m just
in my head when i when i hear
crazy numbers like that i go
oh my god seven percent fed funds that
probably means the two year is
nine percent
30-year money is probably 10 and a half
crazy wow
here’s a question for you that you
probably don’t realize
what year this is this is audience
participation get ready to uh
type a response
what year
what year was the last time
that the fed funds rate was six percent
what year
do you think we have to go all the way
back to the 1980s and paul volcker when
do you think the last time the fed funds
rate was six percent let me know i’m
going to go on to my next topic and i
will come back
the closing topic before we answer the
question of the day is
what cities what five cities are people
leaving and what
five cities are people coming to
so
people are fleeing
san francisco
los angeles new york
seattle
and washington d.c
they are going to
miami
phoenix
tampa
sacramento and las
vegas
kind of makes sense that’s what we’re
seeing in the real estate prices and
appreciation makes a lot of sense
so now
the question of the day what year was
the fed funds rate last at six percent
the answer
2001.
mr greenspan 2001.
yeah it’s uh that surprised me if you
would have asked me before i read that
article
i would not have guessed 2001.
pretty crazy yep all right folks
remember 8 am
we will be
going live and answering your questions
saying hello having a good time take
care of yourself bye bye
you