Video Description:
foreign
good evening folks Michael Zuber won
rental at a time this is our weekly live
stream live q a or questions my answers
uh do me a favor folks if you’d like to
ask me a question today uh go ahead and
put it in the comments if you want to
say hi or hello or anything like that go
ahead and put it in typically what I
will do is just Riff on a couple of
topics for
10 minutes or so and then the rest of
our time together will be your questions
uh and I will take a shot at some
answers so if you want to ask a question
feel free to leave it in the comments uh
I will scroll to the very top and answer
them as they come in uh so thank you for
attending uh first thing kind of a
housekeeping item uh we will not again
we will not not uh be having a live
stream next Saturday
I will be attending an event uh in
Southern California hosted by Adrian and
Ty who are two of my weekly or I should
say two of our weekly experts
uh
as I’ve told you many times
I am trying to get better I am trying to
improve I have I have a tool belt uh
that has undoubtedly worked
but I know I can get better uh so one of
the things I will be doing next week is
getting better I believe the event is re
hybrid
our real estate hybrid
um
I think that’s what it’s called Uh I
will be there I will be getting better
uh lots of great speakers one I
particularly look forward to seeing is
thatch newin
I’ve had that on the channel once before
uh he is amazing right he came uh to
this country uh as a young boy uh with
100 bucks basically as a family uh from
Vietnam if I remember correctly and to
see uh to see what he has accomplished
to see how he got here he got here the
right way focused daily discipline not
taking no for an answer
and um
I pay money right I’m spending thousands
of dollars uh to go see all these folks
uh but yeah that’s new in
is going to be a highlight for me so uh
I will be there uh if you are going to
that event uh or if you want to just
swing by I believe Olivia well I know
Olivia is coming
uh many of you have asked to meet her or
see her she’s not coming on YouTube
that’s not happening uh but she does go
to events with me on occasion so she
will be there and then what we’re going
to do is take some time off together so
that was kind of the give and take so uh
I won’t be recording uh any interviews
for about a week
my intention is still to do the daily
financial news with you every morning at
7 30. uh we’ve been doing it a thousand
days in a row and I see no reason to
stop but uh yeah next Saturday no live
stream for Q a no deep Dives uh I’m
gonna be in Southern California getting
better
that’s that’s what Saturday is going to
be for me so uh yeah I I’m spending
money
um really spending twice as much because
Olivia’s coming too so that’s what I’m
doing next week I think I leave
Wednesday
um so that’s uh yeah so that’s going on
uh what else uh what else we need to
talk about here
um
oh yeah at nine o’clock if you’re one of
my students we’re gonna do the Adu Deep
dive uh don’t worry if you don’t have
the money for the course it’s okay I
will publish the video tomorrow at 9 00
a.m right here on YouTube I always want
to give I like doing it with my students
because I can control the questions I
know there are no trolls or haters
because I’m not going to edit the video
so I don’t want to have any of those
comments there so that’s why we do that
um
on to other topics that I want to talk
about their housing markets are already
crashing
in transactions
uh Brian Lebo put out a video the other
day that Vegas is down 40 percent uh he
talks in great detail about August being
worse uh good news I’m talking to Brian
Lebo at 10 30 today we’re going to talk
about July and talk about August
he is um
he doesn’t have very many good things to
say about Vegas real estate market uh in
August unless you’re a buyer unless you
uh want to write offers and make you
know do the work and find a motivated
seller so I look forward to the
conversation I’m hearing from more and
more real estate agents many of you had
told me I was wrong
months ago and now are emailing me
saying you were right it was amazing how
fast the market turned
um you know what can I do a lot of
nervous real estate agents
uh what I would tell real estate agents
mortgage brokers today is you’re walking
into a depression
I mean just look at the mat the math
says there’s a depression is coming to
real estate agents mortgage brokers
mortgage brokers I think you did like
4.2 trillion dollars in originations
last year
2.7 of that was refi’s that Market’s
Dead and Gone
which leaves you with what call it 2
trillion in purchases
that Market’s going to fall 30 40 50
percent so mortgage brokers
um
time to step up a lot of you got lazy
now it’s time to invest maybe you’re
like Matt the mortgage guy right you
were doing great business California
well he invested in now he’s
Country-Wide right uh I think 48 out of
50 states genius he did that early
maybe you’re a non-qm lender and you’re
realizing that you know what non-qm is
going to be a great place to be
maybe you do combined loan to value like
velocity or you do 40-year loans like
Convoy or second loans like Convoy
uh if you’re a buyer
um buyer’s agent right real estate
agents
you need to you need to uh you need to
follow up with FHA VA and 203k home
buyers
I uh let’s be honest those folks got
ignored you didn’t return their phone
calls last year I know I’ve heard from
them
well guess what they’re going to be your
best source of deals
uh make sure you do them a favor and you
work for them don’t have them overpaid
don’t go over list in fact don’t write
list price offers
get three get three percent closing
credit use it you work with your
mortgage broker to figure out the best
way to use it mortgage rate buy down
closing costs
you know I will let you guys figure out
the best use of that but there is if you
can get three percent still get a loan
why not that’s real money
uh the market is changing to a buyer’s
market
what have you and I been wanting I mean
it’s five real estate agents you’re
you’re a funny bunch
I’ve had conversations with all of you
or lots of you in the last year or so
and all of you said I wish the market
would slow down I wish we had more
inventory
congratulations your wish came true now
you’re complaining
there’s it’s just can’t you just
whatever
it’s funny to watch
um
but as always
and hopefully my experts which again I’m
so thankful for them coming back every
week have proven
wealth
wealth
is built in recessions in Bear markets
every investor every millionaire I talk
to every week is ecstatic by what is
coming
a lot of new investors are nervous
that’s okay
it happens I was nervous the first time
too
recessions aren’t that scary
right I learned this morning from the
jobs number that the average layoff in
this cycle is eight and a half weeks hey
you have an emergency fund you bust your
butt with a resume you find another job
eight and a half weeks not the end of
the world
so that’s why I talk about all the time
right especially because I come from a
sales career and sales people get
whacked all the time in recessions it’s
get close to revenue Main Line not new
business
and um
yeah just this is a great time you gotta
you gotta make sure you take care of
your family first
but then do the work learn your Market
understand average
I did a live stream this morning about
I’m selling everything clearly a
clickbait title because Graham Stefan
and me Kevin and all these other people
are selling everything
I hopefully showed you the math selling
everything is stupid
when you do one rental at a time and you
bought something the last couple of
years with low fix rate debt you’re an
idiot to sell
we I showed you you’re basically
paying a bunch to taxes you’re paying a
bunch to selling agents and you’re going
backwards
so I I’m not selling anything why would
you sell right I I busted my ass getting
all my homes and frankly my apartments
under four percent
if you watch my channel you heard me do
that we did it it took six months
I worked for velocity mortgage to get my
apartments and my office buildings at
3.99
on purpose
why would I sell any of those it’s
30-year fixed rate debt that’s an asset
man these channels that told people not
to buy in 20 in 2020 and 2021 they uh
they owe people a lot of money they just
do
so let’s talk about next week again
folks remember this is for you so start
putting in your comments and questions I
got one more topic to Riff on and then I
will
scroll over go right to the top and move
forward if you want to jump to the front
of the line you can do a super chat the
only reason I talk about it here uh is
it’s an hour long and if you want to
jump to the front of the line I will
take the Super Chat because YouTube
likes to get paid and YouTube I think
takes half of the Super Chat so if I get
super chats YouTube makes money and
they’ll push the channel
it is what it is I talk about it one
time a week so this is that video
so the last topic is CPI next week
CPI is wicked important next week no
idea what the number is going to be no
idea it’s all over the map in my mind
I usually going into CPI I have a pretty
good feeling and we’ve been pretty right
recently
I got to tell you I have no idea this
time
no idea no idea could it be 887 yeah
could it be 9-3 yeah could it be 10 yeah
no idea
no idea I have no idea I this is the
first month and probably
gosh
six to nine months I have no idea
all the other months kind of lined up
like well this is where it has to go
this month we have a lot of cross
currents we have oil and gas Commodities
I know a lot of that hasn’t rippled
through
last CPI 9-1 was very broad-based even
clothing was up which didn’t make any
sense
and of course we have the big Boogeyman
of rent which eventually is going to
show up I’m afraid I what I’m really
afraid of and why I’m not really
confident on a call
oh let’s look at this Angel sent me a
Super Chat
that’s a cute what do you call that gif
or picture I had no idea but thank you
Angel that was very nice of you YouTube
there you go you got some money
um
the boogeyman for me is rent
I I don’t know I just
we’ve corrected for rent you and I
together for six months and we’ve gotten
anywhere between I think like 11 7 and
13-1
eventually rent’s gonna come it just has
to right rent’s not going up five
percent or six percent it’s going up 12
13 14 15 percent
it has to show up eventually and I’ve
I’ve known forever that it’s six month
delayed
well guess what it’s six months I’m I’m
just afraid that we’re gonna get gas
coming back but rent’s gonna slam it
so that’s why I don’t I don’t feel good
I just I have no confidence in a number
if the number if the over under is nine
I’m gonna take the over and hope for the
under
but usually I’m very confident on a
number you’ve heard me make predictions
for months
I just don’t know I just don’t know this
month so
yeah here’s another thing this is what
really freaks me out really freaks me
out really freaks me out let’s assume
CPI comes in at nine five or higher
we just got a jobs number very
broad-based wage inflation is sticky and
getting worse 500 and what 28 000 jobs
created there’s no chance at hell we’re
in a recession
and we get a 9-5 the Fred the fed’s
gonna have to break the market they’re
just going to have to they’re going to
have to come out and Bash us with an
August 75 bashes with a 75 in September
they’re gonna have to get the FED funds
right over four this year if if if we
get a 9-5 CPI
so yeah I don’t have a good feel if you
guys want to take a guess I’d love to
hear your guesses I always love the
feedback the ideas put a CPI number in
your comments I’d love to hear from you
so let’s go scroll up again Angel R
thank you for your Super Chat uh YouTube
there you go you got your Vig
uh Better Homes good morning how are you
better home rentals good morning Jeff
you said people who bought property in
early 2020 will win what if we missed
that boat we can we what can we do
looking primary resident best game plan
I believe what I said is the people that
bought early in the decade won
just Jeff just look at the 1970
spreadsheet if you bought in 70 you won
if you bought in 71 you won you bought
in 72 you won you bought in 73 you won
rates went up
um
the earlier you bought the more you won
I think that is obvious
um
I just did a video today
talking about you know buying and
selling I mean
the deal is
you have to buy even if it’s your
primary residence Jeff I say get a buy
box
look at it every day
understand average get a great deal
get the seller to give you three points
of credit
right closing costs mortgage rate buy
down whatever it is
don’t overpay don’t don’t write over
list shoot don’t pay list pricing I see
no reason my uh my search
my I don’t even bother with anything
that’s Jeff that’s 30 days or less
days on Market
I only want to buy from a motivated
seller I see no reason why you at
owneroc would like anything different
go get you have all the leverage today
so go get the best deal possible and I
would tell you the best deal possible is
from a motivated seller it’s that simple
do the work write lots of great offers
there are motivated sellers out there
it’s really hard to find them today
there’s a lot of fomo from sellers
because you know a lot of wish pricing
it won’t always be that way I think
we’re gonna have a rush of listings and
then in 60 days we’re actually going to
see listings drop
because more and more sellers are like
hey I put it out at five and a quarter
got nothing I just take it off the
market well guess what Jeff that’s not a
motivated seller
yeah so you know you don’t have a time
machine I don’t have a time machine do
the work understand average find a great
deal get closing costs get rate buy down
same deal do the work
Sean and Wendy how you doing hello
family oh Lumberjack in the house look
at him
didn’t Lumberjack and Dion do an amazing
deep dive yesterday and also a live
Three Amigos
um we’re so lucky to have them as part
of one rental at a time
hi Zuber thanks for doing this what are
your thoughts on buying in a flood zone
have you or any of your experts dealt
with homes in a flood area so I bought a
home
let me see if I can remember the street
address
I can’t remember anyways uh in Fresno
um they had these canals running through
Fresno I bought a home on one of the
canals and didn’t know it was in a flood
zone
I figured out was in a flood zone uh in
closing uh normal Insurance on a home
for me call it 800 bucks
I got my insurance quote four grand that
was a problem
I was already committed to close I
wasn’t backing out
so we closed uh there there was a
process because I just didn’t understand
it was was truly in a flood zone so what
I did in that example is I paid I think
I paid like
2500 bucks for a survey
uh the survey came out I didn’t know how
it was gonna finish it could have gone
either way but the survey came out did
their report showed that it was no
longer in a flood plain or a flood zone
uh then they filed paperwork with the
city the city updated their map and
about six months later
uh my property was no longer in a flood
zone and we got it out
uh so that’s how I handled it
um
you know that’s my one example uh I have
a lot of people that buy in other states
I’m assuming many of them are there it’s
expensive you just got to run the
numbers
um and it’s not getting less expensive
right there’s a lot of people buying in
Florida today that are getting shocked
with insurance quotes that are double
and triple
but there are ways around it right for
me I paid for a survey I rolled the dice
we’ll see if um you know it doesn’t
always work but it did my example but uh
just know the numbers know the math if
it doesn’t work back out right because
again for a lot of people
you know going from I forget 800 to 4
grand or whatever it was would have
killed the deal
um
I wanted the house I felt committed so I
didn’t I didn’t want to back out but
that that was just me
good morning investor wealth how are you
uh Sean think we can have
GDP keep going down and unemployment
stays strong with inflation still
remaining High something new instead of
stagflation Maybe
yeah so that’s interesting I have
thought a lot about that
uh I think we could certainly have that
combination for months but not years
I think what’s actually going on right
now
is something we talked about
um
I don’t know five months ago on my
channel
I think what’s happening right now is
we’re seeing a switch from stuff to
services
and when you have that there’s a lot of
hiring in the services area
and you have a lot of wage inflation
there as well
um
so yeah I think I think I think you can
um I also think the consumers is cutting
back they’re scared
uh so yeah I I still think I
I haven’t changed my opinion I think all
four quarters
will be negative GDP this year
that’s in the face of a strong job
market in unemployment going down
just is I think GDP will be negative I
think it will be very housing related
I think the FED has to break the economy
but yeah I think we can have this for
another three or four months it’s it’s a
wild thing to look at this will not be
called a recession we keep adding half a
million jobs no chance this is a
recession
I don’t care if we get negative two two
percent GDP we’re adding five percent
or 500 000 jobs not coming
another thing you guys got to remember
our last two presidents our current one
and the last one
been very anti-immigration
if you go back and look at a trend line
for immigration we’re about 2 million
light on legal migration legal
immigration
legal immigration these are job creators
very often on entrepreneurs
um
Construction Services it’s we have
really done ourselves a disservice right
the United States has been a growing
population
not necessarily because of birth and
death rates but because we’ve been the
most amazing country to be a part of and
it’s where you come to make your dreams
and the streets aligned with gold and
all of those things
the current in the past president
near as I could tell don’t like legal
immigration
that in my opinion needs to change we
need we need to have a a robust process
to make sure the goods good come and the
bad don’t don’t get me wrong this is not
about open borders and let everybody in
by no stretch but it can’t stay close
forever either
because if we do people these
entrepreneurs are going to go somewhere
else
and those are jobs jobs jobs so I don’t
know if it’s scoring system or what it
is it’s above my pay grade but the doors
can’t stay closed to the best and
brightest forever
um I think that’s I don’t think that’s
what the United States was built on
right we’ve been all of us most of us
we’re immigrants at some somewhere in
our background right my
I think it was my great great
grandparents came over from Serbia
might have been one more I always it was
always my grandmother wasn’t very
certain on that
um my other side my mom’s side came from
Ireland fitzpatricks
I think that was my great great
grandfather so
we all come from immigrants and we need
we need to have
a process scoring system seems right
whatever it is uh but we need we need
that need the door needs to get cracked
open because right now we’re seeing uh
baby boomers retire we’re seeing
participation rate go down these are
these all happen mean wage inflation
goes up this is all wage inflation and
if we get wage inflation CPI is going to
be wickedly sticky
because as we’ve learned
what happens when you pay your employees
more you raise the price to Consumers
and it’s just a vicious cycle
so yeah
it’s very it’s a very very economically
speaking this is a wild time to watch
it’s pretty cool
uh could you post the Deep dive Link in
today on the Facebook group JC it’s
already there
I posted it earlier in the week
um
I saved it though so let me see
I think I can do it fast so let me see
if I can do it from my phone real fast
here we go oh nope that’s not it
deep dive here we go
okay copy doing it right now look at
that nothing like service
a d u
a d u Deep dive reminder
all right there we go post all right JC
just did it right now
ninja ninja vanish these are great names
good morning how are you Angel again
shout out to you
uh Jeff you said fed needs to break
something yep what other things could
break besides housing and stock market
that would have tremendous deflationary
effects on every Market that needs to
cool
I don’t think you need to do anything
else I think I think I think housing
when you go back and look at the last
dozen recessions
housing has been a leading Force it’s
it’s very sticky uh housing also uh and
then when you throw in the stock market
the negative wealth effect
I guess the I guess the other thing Jeff
that’s not on your list is unemployment
that’s would you really break it when
you really boil it down it’s not even
housing and the stock market needs to
break
the FED needs to break the jobs Market
that’s what they need to break
let me just tell you this the Fed was
not happy the Fed was not happy that
unemployment rate went down and wages
went up
they weren’t happy
that’s the boogeyman
so yes I do believe they’re going to
break housing yes I do believe they’re
going to break the stock market at some
point
uh but they need to break unemployment
now unemployment doesn’t need to go
bonkers
I think if they get unemployment from
three and a half to five
they’ll call that a win
now of course the FED can’t say that
because you know
that’s not cool but for most of my adult
life full employment as an economist has
been six percent
we’re at three and a half
in like 2000
six I think
you know economists got together I never
understand this and they took full
employment from six to five percent
so in my mind Jeff
they break down they need to bring
that’s what they need to break it needs
to go from three and a half percent
unemployed to five
that’s what I think they’re looking at
unfortunately
Jeff my Market’s still bananas put in a
cash list price offer got outbid three
to five others 20 asking anything that
sits for 30 days is wish pricing St
Louis Missouri looking for primary
residents
well
um
again in what I’m what’s going to
eventually happen
in my opinion this is my wild ass guess
right now as I’ve said many times we are
in that really weird stage where more
sellers are coming on
very much wish pricing
most of them will let it sit and take it
off
what I think is going to happen by the
end of August maybe September certainly
October
is you are going to start to see
listings sit and sit and sit those my
folks those my friends those are
potentially motivated sellers
those are the motivated sellers that’s
where I’m gonna fish
I don’t know why an owner occupant
wouldn’t do anything different
um I I want to buy from a motivated
seller otherwise I’m overpaying in my
opinion now I realize saying that it’s a
very different story I’m an investor
you’re shopping for your family so I get
it
um there’s certainly a different Dynamic
you probably want a school zone you
probably want this or that but that’s a
buy box to me owner occupants in my
opinion still have a buy box look every
day find a motivated seller
get going
it’s it’s not it’s not going to be easy
you’re you know
I tell to everybody I wrote 100 offers
on the MLS in 2021 20 20. I think it was
- got nothing
I think this year if I write 20 or 25
offers I’ll get i’ll get a few counters
because again I’m going to write them on
Old listings
and frankly Jeff if I found a listing
that I really liked that was 30 days old
in wish pricing I would write the offer
anyway
I don’t know St Louis so let’s just make
some numbers up
let’s say you found a house that you
really liked
you think it’s worth 275 they they think
it’s worth 315.
I would still write the offer at 275.
you never know
when that mode there’s a motivated
seller yeah it’s still wish pricing but
who cares write the offer write the
offer write the offer
write the offer
just write the offer what’s the worst
thing they can say no thanks no scream
at you who cares move on
yeah so one thing I would tell you that
I don’t see in your comment is write the
offer just write the offer write the
offer
and then follow up every two weeks write
the offer again
the deals are in the follow-up the deals
are in the follow-up
Paul V good morning how are you
uh I watch every minute of your content
by the way wow Jeff that’s hard to do
that’s hard to do
wow thank you thank you thank you that’s
hard to do I have a buy box awesome
just everything is chaos shows no signs
of cooling well I disagree with that
you may not see it because you’re in the
middle of it
but I’m going to guess
six months ago Jeff you had no listings
30 days older I’m just gonna guess maybe
it was 60 days ago
it is cooling the fact that you have
wish pricing today it is cooling wish
pricing in January Jeff sold
so I just I think you’re too close to it
the market today given what you’ve told
me is changing
it may not be changing enough it may not
be changing fast
but given what you’ve told me here Jeff
it is changing you might just be too
close to see it
uh yep you can check FEMA’s website for
flood zones yep
do you Angel do you think China
sanctions on the U.S are something to be
concerned about
um I haven’t seen it I mean there was
some sanction about climate and um this
or that I think it’s all noise I have
family in Taiwan as I’ve been very clear
about
um that’s where my wife’s from and I’ve
been to many many times
I would tell you the folks in Taiwan are
more nervous today
because of what Nancy Pelosi did than
they were two months ago
I think Nancy Pelosi decided to do
something for her in her Legacy and not
the Taiwan people
and I say that as somebody who has
family friends and I’ve probably spent
100 days in Taiwan maybe more
um so I think I think uh Nancy’s Nancy
did something with self-service Legacy
building you know hey I’m the highest
ranking American there in 25 years
whatever
I think she did something for her not
for the people so my friends and family
that are there are more nervous today
than they were two weeks ago which
that’s just sad that’s just sad in my
opinion
but I don’t think we in the U.S
I haven’t seen anything to be concerned
about
I yeah who knows
I haven’t really looked I haven’t looked
for it either
Lance when investing out of state how
many times should I visit the market I
want to invest in before buying and how
often after buying also should I only
buy in person
um
you know I again I’m probably not the
right guy to answer this
um because I haven’t never done it I’m
pretty
it’s it’s just risky
uh Millennial Mike has created some
content uh for my course on this others
have as well
um really for me it’s the network
I think you need to do a couple of
things
obviously you need a network of people
you’re going to pay Lance property
manager real estate agents contractors
but all of those people get paid in my
experience
people that get paid by you
may not lie to you but they will tell
you the most Rosy picture possible
and unfortunately they will tell you
half truths or incomplete truths as a
landlord
you need the whole story
so the big deal for me Lance is you need
to have a strong enough network of other
Real Estate Investors
or people that don’t that you don’t pay
that are will drive by your property and
go hey Lance
did you know somebody’s throwing a yard
sale or somebody’s parking on the grass
or wow that dumpster has been over full
for a long you need somebody to tell you
the bad news
you need somebody you don’t pay to tell
you the truth not half truth so that’s
the sticking point for me
so how long does that take you tell me
you tell me uh I think it is ridiculous
to invest in a market you’ve never been
to that’s my opinion can it work sure
is it risky yes
I think you need to go there now how
often
I do think at some point once you have a
network and a team you don’t have to go
anymore for example I haven’t been to
Fresno California since early 2020. just
haven’t had to go
we’ve probably done
12 transactions
buys and sells in that time frame
[Music]
um
have the team do live streams do uh what
do they’re called
face times or whatever they’re called
so it can be done you don’t always have
to go once it’s rocking and rolling
I do think you should do surprise
inspections that’s something that I did
that really caught a couple of property
managers by surprise
sometimes you tell them you’re coming
and it looks great and you go back and
you tell them you’re gone doesn’t look
great very frustrating
so I’m not sure if I answered your
questions or I just talked around in
circles but hopefully that gives you
enough you need somebody that’s going to
tell you bad news preferably somebody
you don’t pay
thank you for your time you’re very
welcome how should I research employers
and job creation in a market any tool
you would recommend
uh I actually recommend not overthinking
it uh I would suggest getting the local
paper
the local paper
yeah just get the local paper they are
rewarded for selling the story of that
area so I wouldn’t overthink it read the
local paper I have been reading the
Fresno Bee which is my local paper for
um almost 20 years
it’s amazing all kinds of stuff were
covered in the Fresno Bee that would
never hit the state’s radar or the let
alone the national radar
like I hear about warehouses and I heard
I heard Amazon was coming to Fresno in
the Fresno b a year before it hit the
national news
read the local paper don’t overthink it
China has a major demographic issue yep
yeah the one child policy is going to be
a pain to undo
yeah
yes yeah it’s uh they do have a problem
34 five single-family homes cool
they all have fixed rate debt nice
cool
uh so you don’t tell me what the fixed
rate debt is I’m going to assume it has
a four or lower
um
yeah I mean I can only tell you my
opinion everybody do their own thing I
only worry about fixed rate dead over
six
that’s that’s that’s my line
if I can’t if I can’t eventually get
better than six percent yield I will pay
off the debt
um the other thing that I you know I
need to mention here is uh when I got
close to or when I retired kind of out
of the blue we spent about six months
doing some cash out refi’s on four
plexes to pay off houses because I
wanted to have a dozen or so houses free
and clear
um you know
yeah I mean there’s something to be said
I mean Dion did it right Dion paid off a
house and he’s loving that
um there you know
I guess the answer for you
um is
if you’ve got your number if five is
what you want and you’re done
if if you’re done with five which is
totally cool right I’ve always said four
changes your life so congratulations you
have a bonus
if you’re done if you’re done growing
then by all means pay off your debt by
all means because again the Sooners paid
off the more your cash flow grows and
you’re done now most people would hear
that statement go the opportunity cost
and oh you can’t do this and you screw
them who cares this is about you don’t
listen to all the mathematicians out
there that aren’t in your situation if
you’re done at five congratulations
but if you want to get to 10
and your 30-year money is fours
the right answer is to keep growing
so hopefully that answers your question
wandering dark that’s fun
um yeah great video on selling
properties yeah I can’t believe
I don’t know what it is about I mean
first off is housing crash and now sell
everything is a title
but hey you got to play the YouTube
algorithm so I created a video called
sell everything that starts with I’m not
selling anything but hey it is what it
is that’s funny thank you for that
I had one partially failed 1031 with the
one-year missed rent selling cost it was
not worth it yeah dude
yeah it can bite you
I I don’t know who would sell if you’re
a if you’re a one rental at a time fan
student
follower
you bought in 18 19 20 21 at low rates
why would you sell
I did a video today even if you got a 10
correction which and you timed it
perfectly you still lose you still lose
oh it’s so funny why would you sell yeah
yeah I have one only one conclusion
prices advice never sell
yes
well never is a big story I mean I so I
sold a couple of times
one I sold when I my affordability
crashed and I moved to Apartments so
that’s an exchange I would not sell
houses today because it’s it’s still
affordable in my market as wild as that
is to say
and then I sold problem properties I
talked about a Triplex I sold last year
I don’t know maybe it was a year before
like I tried to work on this property
for three four five years it just never
worked so I’ll sell a problem property
but other than that yeah you’re silly to
sell if you’re a one rental at a time
fan with 30-year fixed rate debt the
cash flows today and you’re getting an
amazing yield
let the 70s let the 52-yard spreadsheet
be your guide it only gets better from
here I have a shirt that everybody
should get it says I’m looking at it
right now I use inflation to get rich
ask me how
never sell
never sell yeah
Adam I had two rentals that I bought one
in 2010 200k another in 2012 100K I sold
the first in 2020 for 500 and sold this
the other for 350 two months ago
congratulations
I was a motivated seller for the second
one since I had listed at 399 but gladly
took 350 I figured crazy Market by the
way I had both paid off completely cool
good for you
good for you I you know that’s what you
wanted to do congratulations
uh even in real estate prices dropped 40
tomorrow we’re back to 2018 the same
Year everyone was still telling airless
state was overvalued and by next year
when it crashed in
I don’t understand why people listen to
kids in their mom’s basement who are
renters to never buy that that always
made me
and then you listen to people that have
only been doing this for two or three
years
wouldn’t you want to listen to somebody
that’s doing it 20 plus years not only
survived the last crash but got out of
the way in time and then profited I mean
it is really funny how many people
listen to somebody in their mom’s
basement who is on tenant of course
they’re going to say it’s going to crash
they needed to crash
I just think that’s comical to me so
funny
is there an argument going on around a
crash where did I see this oh is there
something I missed I must have missed
one
three months of straight home price
decline I don’t know what you’re looking
at exactly what happened in 08 for 24
months will be ugly two years of
artificial growth
I don’t know what you’re looking at uh
you must maybe that’s your Market that’s
certainly not the country
uh
year on year appreciation was up 16.4
percent so I don’t know what you’re
talking about
um if you’re gonna you know sit on the
couch and wait for a crash good less
competition for me
I’m fine with that I you know let me
also say
I want a 50 crash in prices I would love
a 50 crash in prices I give a rat’s ass
about my balance sheet I would love to
have a 50 crash I make less money on
YouTube not saying there was a crash I
had every incentive to say a 50 crash is
coming if it’s just not it’s just not
we’re gonna have a 50 crash in
transactions it is going to lead to a
recession it is going to feel like a
depression
could your Market could your buy box
fall 30 sure I have no idea what it is
is the country going to fall 30 percent
come on is the market going to fall 30
by November as one of these great real
estate channels is calling for are you
kidding me
just nonsense total nonsense but hey you
believe it’s gonna crash great you sit
on the sidelines you wait
I’ve been hearing about a crash since
2012.
Sean it seems when the FED pauses has
historically been the indicator a
recession is happening
when do you think they pause I’m
thinking q1 Q2 of 2023
it’s all about CPI again I I it’s it’s
funny I I don’t have a very good picture
right usually I feel good about my calls
I don’t know I have no call about
Wednesday Wednesday is a big day
CPI Wednesday if it comes in at nine
three or above
the FED May raise
they may be raising till the summer of
next year
and that’s when they pause if we have a
CPI on Wednesday we’re not talking weeks
away we’re talking days away of nine
three or above
there’s probably no Cuts until 2024. now
let’s assume it comes in at eight six or
eight five or eight four
like Wall Street wants
then they probably stop
in q1
cut in Q3
but again as I think I said a couple of
times now
I have no good feeling about CPI on
Wednesday I could I could talk myself
into any number
and if you’ve been watching my channel
for six months
you know that I I really enjoy making a
call that I feel good about
I have no idea what Wednesday is going
to be so it’s the first time in a long
time
I have no confidence I’m going to take
the over while hoping for the under but
I just don’t know I don’t know
JC love oret thank you for that I
appreciate that having bought some
single families now the issue of setting
up a great system so one can manage
effectively in scale
uh would that weren’t a separate
discussion yeah we did a video on
Wednesday the Three Amigos live I think
it’s almost 90 minutes
we asked uh Matt and Dion who have been
self-managing all kinds of questions I
would check that video out
we probably should do a deep dive just
for my students so it’s more intimate
we’re not over the place uh maybe we’ll
do that in the next couple months but
yeah
uh get your numbers right 2.9 is the
bottom of mortgages it’s no means the
average of all mortgages in the U.S
I don’t know apparently somebody’s
arguing with somebody I don’t know
semiconductor stock Pelosi
yeah I don’t yeah whatever yeah
super yep hi Johnny how are you
hi Izzy how are you
oh I inherited a set of paid off
mixed-use buildings all occupied in
decent rents
uh is I think that’s is now a good time
to take a mortgage and what’s a good
rate for commercial
um well I mean it all depends on your
plans
um
I mean there’s a lot of there’s a lot
more details there what are you gonna do
with the money what do you need I mean
do you like cash flow are you going to
grow
um
I don’t know I mean let’s just play it
out let’s say let’s just say I inherited
a bunch of properties for my great great
aunt for some reason that we’re free and
clear
what would I do
yeah I mean in reality I’d probably I
mean again everybody’s situation is
different I have no idea what you would
do but what I would do
is I’d probably go get a 50 loan to
value loan get the best rates I’d get a
30-year fixed
and then I would use that to buy more
assets that’s that’s what I would do and
again like when I refined my buildings
here nine months ago I would sit on the
cache and wait for great deals
but again I don’t know you your
situation your lifestyle any of that so
I only can answer what I would do if my
great aunt left me a couple of buildings
I would conservatively Finance it with
30-year fixed rate debt
uh you would have to go to a non-qm
lender I would not get a commercial five
one seven one I would get no arms I
don’t like arms ever
I think good rates for non-comm lenders
today are probably in the sevens
that’s where they are commercial might
be lower but their arms I hate arms
uh
uh nah
Jeffrey with the humor the dad joke I
like it I don’t know is that a dad joke
I don’t know it’s really funny though
thanks Jeffrey
what are your thoughts on townhouse for
single family investment in my area
townhouse is a good cash flow but not
single family you got to be careful on
Town Homes I think a lot of people run
the numbers and forget HOA forget HOA
goes up forget HOA rules
I have one uh one I think it’s a condo
that I have
in my Investment Portfolio
uh I bought it for cash I was lucky
enough to be in that situation and I
treat the HOA like a mortgage and
unfortunately the mortgage has gone up
the last couple years which really
pisses me off
but yeah HOAs can go up
and they have rules and sometimes
there’s rules about number of tenants
and or a number of units that can be
rentals so read those HOA rules
uh
so I think I think you were oh you have
fixed rate I think this is the five
units oh dude if you have if you have
mortgage rates three three why would you
pay those off I mean seriously why
that’s that’s free money
I would not like I I won’t I would not
pay off any of my if my mortgage rate
was two and a half I would never I would
not pay that off early
no I think there’s a time let’s just be
very clear I think in the next 12 to 18
months
you’re going to get higher interest rate
on your savings
think about that you can get I think
there will be a time in the next two
years where the savings rates could be
two percent
so why would you pay off your mortgage
if you can get I mean yeah makes no
sense
that’s a crazy good race congratulations
how do you advise how much house you can
afford in terms of assuming 10K monthly
net income
for a first home plan live five seven
years William good news is uh I don’t
pretend to be a mortgage broker a lawyer
or a CPA I would work with a
professional
the general rule of thumb I think in the
industry is 30 but again everybody’s
situation is different so
yeah
yeah I would I would ask a mortgage
broker and go through it I think life is
about discretionary income needs versus
wants
so I I would run the numbers
uh yep I just asked what Sony would do
yeah
hi Sonny you want to say hi
in case everybody’s wondering who Sonny
is
this is sunny he had a birthday last
week he is now one years old you can see
he’s pretty tired
we’ll put it back
you want to be seen oh Happy’s jealous
now
and this of course is happy
the big sister oh you’re really tired
huh okay you can go back to that
they’re with me every day every day in
the office they have two beds
right there one each
uh what are your thoughts on buying
today at 6.8 I dude angel I would do a
deal today at 10 percent
I don’t care what the cost of capital is
um what I was saying was to the earlier
question when do I get to a point of
slowing down I would do everything I can
to pay those loans down or refi them or
whatever
I would do deals today at 10 interest
they have to cash flow they have to be
great yields they have to do all those
things cost of capital today doesn’t
matter I will do all kinds of deals
at seven eight nine ten percent
but when the economy slows or picks up
or whatever I will look at all my high
rate loans and focus on paying them off
or refinancing them later
cost of capital is just one one cell on
a little spreadsheet for me
I’m still buying
what’s the process for setting up
one-on-one coaching call
um so if you buy my course that includes
mentoring
it comes with one 30-minute mentoring
call
uh all you have to do is reach out uh
email me which you can do right off my
website if you’re in the course you can
email me you can DM me on Facebook if
you’re in the group
if you could DM me on Instagram we just
set it up it’s pretty low-key we can
either do a phone call many people
choose to do a zoom I’m okay either way
but yeah you have to buy that option
um and it’s expensive it’s you know 30
bucks a minute
um but if you if that if it’s that
important I wanted to have that option I
didn’t offer one-on-one coaching forever
I just I didn’t want to sell bits of my
life but so many people asked for it so
I put it out there and uh yeah it’s it’s
helping I think I have a coaching call
tomorrow as a matter of fact at eight
uh thanks Mike it’s tough to keep with
the corporate grind that I hate even
though it pays well I hate it yeah
I’m sorry
uh what is the best resource or book for
sales training in your sales experience
and The Lumberjack if you’re in the chat
um
yeah solution selling
is probably the best I see The
Lumberjack put that there too yeah
yeah I think solution selling yeah
really what selling is to me though is
listening it’s funny most sales people
talk too much
the other thing selling is is
storytelling that’s why I was really
good at taking products from nothing to
something
is I only worried about the story and I
changed the story as as I learn more
ready fire rain it’s never about being
perfect it’s not getting feedback
all right one more question because I
got to get ready for the students
oh Wonder dock 90 passive investor in
syndications good for you
wow look at that debt structure wow 2.37
oh
yeah the debt that ass that’s it I keep
telling people that’s the asset
why would you ever pay that off I mean
seriously what are you kidding me no no
chance
yep the kids the kid in the mom’s
basement that’s a renter I always
thought that
let’s see
all right folks it’s been a lot of fun
for me I hope you angel thank you very
much for the Super Chat YouTube you got
one super chat today good luck keep
pushing my channel
uh guys have a lot of fun I’m gonna go
get ready for an amazing live on doing
adus the right way I’m of course going
to share my experience of doing it the
wrong way and just burning money which
I do sometimes so have fun take care of
yourself have an amazing Saturday
take care bye bye