Many Housing Markets Crashing 30%-40% Already. Did Interest Rates Bottom or More to Follow?

Video Description:

foreign

good evening folks Michael Zuber won

rental at a time this is our weekly live

stream live q a or questions my answers

uh do me a favor folks if you’d like to

ask me a question today uh go ahead and

put it in the comments if you want to

say hi or hello or anything like that go

ahead and put it in typically what I

will do is just Riff on a couple of

topics for

10 minutes or so and then the rest of

our time together will be your questions

uh and I will take a shot at some

answers so if you want to ask a question

feel free to leave it in the comments uh

I will scroll to the very top and answer

them as they come in uh so thank you for

attending uh first thing kind of a

housekeeping item uh we will not again

we will not not uh be having a live

stream next Saturday

I will be attending an event uh in

Southern California hosted by Adrian and

Ty who are two of my weekly or I should

say two of our weekly experts

uh

as I’ve told you many times

I am trying to get better I am trying to

improve I have I have a tool belt uh

that has undoubtedly worked

but I know I can get better uh so one of

the things I will be doing next week is

getting better I believe the event is re

hybrid

our real estate hybrid

um

I think that’s what it’s called Uh I

will be there I will be getting better

uh lots of great speakers one I

particularly look forward to seeing is

thatch newin

I’ve had that on the channel once before

uh he is amazing right he came uh to

this country uh as a young boy uh with

100 bucks basically as a family uh from

Vietnam if I remember correctly and to

see uh to see what he has accomplished

to see how he got here he got here the

right way focused daily discipline not

taking no for an answer

and um

I pay money right I’m spending thousands

of dollars uh to go see all these folks

uh but yeah that’s new in

is going to be a highlight for me so uh

I will be there uh if you are going to

that event uh or if you want to just

swing by I believe Olivia well I know

Olivia is coming

uh many of you have asked to meet her or

see her she’s not coming on YouTube

that’s not happening uh but she does go

to events with me on occasion so she

will be there and then what we’re going

to do is take some time off together so

that was kind of the give and take so uh

I won’t be recording uh any interviews

for about a week

my intention is still to do the daily

financial news with you every morning at

7 30. uh we’ve been doing it a thousand

days in a row and I see no reason to

stop but uh yeah next Saturday no live

stream for Q a no deep Dives uh I’m

gonna be in Southern California getting

better

that’s that’s what Saturday is going to

be for me so uh yeah I I’m spending

money

um really spending twice as much because

Olivia’s coming too so that’s what I’m

doing next week I think I leave

Wednesday

um so that’s uh yeah so that’s going on

uh what else uh what else we need to

talk about here

um

oh yeah at nine o’clock if you’re one of

my students we’re gonna do the Adu Deep

dive uh don’t worry if you don’t have

the money for the course it’s okay I

will publish the video tomorrow at 9 00

a.m right here on YouTube I always want

to give I like doing it with my students

because I can control the questions I

know there are no trolls or haters

because I’m not going to edit the video

so I don’t want to have any of those

comments there so that’s why we do that

um

on to other topics that I want to talk

about their housing markets are already

crashing

in transactions

uh Brian Lebo put out a video the other

day that Vegas is down 40 percent uh he

talks in great detail about August being

worse uh good news I’m talking to Brian

Lebo at 10 30 today we’re going to talk

about July and talk about August

he is um

he doesn’t have very many good things to

say about Vegas real estate market uh in

August unless you’re a buyer unless you

uh want to write offers and make you

know do the work and find a motivated

seller so I look forward to the

conversation I’m hearing from more and

more real estate agents many of you had

told me I was wrong

months ago and now are emailing me

saying you were right it was amazing how

fast the market turned

um you know what can I do a lot of

nervous real estate agents

uh what I would tell real estate agents

mortgage brokers today is you’re walking

into a depression

I mean just look at the mat the math

says there’s a depression is coming to

real estate agents mortgage brokers

mortgage brokers I think you did like

4.2 trillion dollars in originations

last year

2.7 of that was refi’s that Market’s

Dead and Gone

which leaves you with what call it 2

trillion in purchases

that Market’s going to fall 30 40 50

percent so mortgage brokers

um

time to step up a lot of you got lazy

now it’s time to invest maybe you’re

like Matt the mortgage guy right you

were doing great business California

well he invested in now he’s

Country-Wide right uh I think 48 out of

50 states genius he did that early

maybe you’re a non-qm lender and you’re

realizing that you know what non-qm is

going to be a great place to be

maybe you do combined loan to value like

velocity or you do 40-year loans like

Convoy or second loans like Convoy

uh if you’re a buyer

um buyer’s agent right real estate

agents

you need to you need to uh you need to

follow up with FHA VA and 203k home

buyers

I uh let’s be honest those folks got

ignored you didn’t return their phone

calls last year I know I’ve heard from

them

well guess what they’re going to be your

best source of deals

uh make sure you do them a favor and you

work for them don’t have them overpaid

don’t go over list in fact don’t write

list price offers

get three get three percent closing

credit use it you work with your

mortgage broker to figure out the best

way to use it mortgage rate buy down

closing costs

you know I will let you guys figure out

the best use of that but there is if you

can get three percent still get a loan

why not that’s real money

uh the market is changing to a buyer’s

market

what have you and I been wanting I mean

it’s five real estate agents you’re

you’re a funny bunch

I’ve had conversations with all of you

or lots of you in the last year or so

and all of you said I wish the market

would slow down I wish we had more

inventory

congratulations your wish came true now

you’re complaining

there’s it’s just can’t you just

whatever

it’s funny to watch

um

but as always

and hopefully my experts which again I’m

so thankful for them coming back every

week have proven

wealth

wealth

is built in recessions in Bear markets

every investor every millionaire I talk

to every week is ecstatic by what is

coming

a lot of new investors are nervous

that’s okay

it happens I was nervous the first time

too

recessions aren’t that scary

right I learned this morning from the

jobs number that the average layoff in

this cycle is eight and a half weeks hey

you have an emergency fund you bust your

butt with a resume you find another job

eight and a half weeks not the end of

the world

so that’s why I talk about all the time

right especially because I come from a

sales career and sales people get

whacked all the time in recessions it’s

get close to revenue Main Line not new

business

and um

yeah just this is a great time you gotta

you gotta make sure you take care of

your family first

but then do the work learn your Market

understand average

I did a live stream this morning about

I’m selling everything clearly a

clickbait title because Graham Stefan

and me Kevin and all these other people

are selling everything

I hopefully showed you the math selling

everything is stupid

when you do one rental at a time and you

bought something the last couple of

years with low fix rate debt you’re an

idiot to sell

we I showed you you’re basically

paying a bunch to taxes you’re paying a

bunch to selling agents and you’re going

backwards

so I I’m not selling anything why would

you sell right I I busted my ass getting

all my homes and frankly my apartments

under four percent

if you watch my channel you heard me do

that we did it it took six months

I worked for velocity mortgage to get my

apartments and my office buildings at

3.99

on purpose

why would I sell any of those it’s

30-year fixed rate debt that’s an asset

man these channels that told people not

to buy in 20 in 2020 and 2021 they uh

they owe people a lot of money they just

do

so let’s talk about next week again

folks remember this is for you so start

putting in your comments and questions I

got one more topic to Riff on and then I

will

scroll over go right to the top and move

forward if you want to jump to the front

of the line you can do a super chat the

only reason I talk about it here uh is

it’s an hour long and if you want to

jump to the front of the line I will

take the Super Chat because YouTube

likes to get paid and YouTube I think

takes half of the Super Chat so if I get

super chats YouTube makes money and

they’ll push the channel

it is what it is I talk about it one

time a week so this is that video

so the last topic is CPI next week

CPI is wicked important next week no

idea what the number is going to be no

idea it’s all over the map in my mind

I usually going into CPI I have a pretty

good feeling and we’ve been pretty right

recently

I got to tell you I have no idea this

time

no idea no idea could it be 887 yeah

could it be 9-3 yeah could it be 10 yeah

no idea

no idea I have no idea I this is the

first month and probably

gosh

six to nine months I have no idea

all the other months kind of lined up

like well this is where it has to go

this month we have a lot of cross

currents we have oil and gas Commodities

I know a lot of that hasn’t rippled

through

last CPI 9-1 was very broad-based even

clothing was up which didn’t make any

sense

and of course we have the big Boogeyman

of rent which eventually is going to

show up I’m afraid I what I’m really

afraid of and why I’m not really

confident on a call

oh let’s look at this Angel sent me a

Super Chat

that’s a cute what do you call that gif

or picture I had no idea but thank you

Angel that was very nice of you YouTube

there you go you got some money

um

the boogeyman for me is rent

I I don’t know I just

we’ve corrected for rent you and I

together for six months and we’ve gotten

anywhere between I think like 11 7 and

13-1

eventually rent’s gonna come it just has

to right rent’s not going up five

percent or six percent it’s going up 12

13 14 15 percent

it has to show up eventually and I’ve

I’ve known forever that it’s six month

delayed

well guess what it’s six months I’m I’m

just afraid that we’re gonna get gas

coming back but rent’s gonna slam it

so that’s why I don’t I don’t feel good

I just I have no confidence in a number

if the number if the over under is nine

I’m gonna take the over and hope for the

under

but usually I’m very confident on a

number you’ve heard me make predictions

for months

I just don’t know I just don’t know this

month so

yeah here’s another thing this is what

really freaks me out really freaks me

out really freaks me out let’s assume

CPI comes in at nine five or higher

we just got a jobs number very

broad-based wage inflation is sticky and

getting worse 500 and what 28 000 jobs

created there’s no chance at hell we’re

in a recession

and we get a 9-5 the Fred the fed’s

gonna have to break the market they’re

just going to have to they’re going to

have to come out and Bash us with an

August 75 bashes with a 75 in September

they’re gonna have to get the FED funds

right over four this year if if if we

get a 9-5 CPI

so yeah I don’t have a good feel if you

guys want to take a guess I’d love to

hear your guesses I always love the

feedback the ideas put a CPI number in

your comments I’d love to hear from you

so let’s go scroll up again Angel R

thank you for your Super Chat uh YouTube

there you go you got your Vig

uh Better Homes good morning how are you

better home rentals good morning Jeff

you said people who bought property in

early 2020 will win what if we missed

that boat we can we what can we do

looking primary resident best game plan

I believe what I said is the people that

bought early in the decade won

just Jeff just look at the 1970

spreadsheet if you bought in 70 you won

if you bought in 71 you won you bought

in 72 you won you bought in 73 you won

rates went up

um

the earlier you bought the more you won

I think that is obvious

um

I just did a video today

talking about you know buying and

selling I mean

the deal is

you have to buy even if it’s your

primary residence Jeff I say get a buy

box

look at it every day

understand average get a great deal

get the seller to give you three points

of credit

right closing costs mortgage rate buy

down whatever it is

don’t overpay don’t don’t write over

list shoot don’t pay list pricing I see

no reason my uh my search

my I don’t even bother with anything

that’s Jeff that’s 30 days or less

days on Market

I only want to buy from a motivated

seller I see no reason why you at

owneroc would like anything different

go get you have all the leverage today

so go get the best deal possible and I

would tell you the best deal possible is

from a motivated seller it’s that simple

do the work write lots of great offers

there are motivated sellers out there

it’s really hard to find them today

there’s a lot of fomo from sellers

because you know a lot of wish pricing

it won’t always be that way I think

we’re gonna have a rush of listings and

then in 60 days we’re actually going to

see listings drop

because more and more sellers are like

hey I put it out at five and a quarter

got nothing I just take it off the

market well guess what Jeff that’s not a

motivated seller

yeah so you know you don’t have a time

machine I don’t have a time machine do

the work understand average find a great

deal get closing costs get rate buy down

same deal do the work

Sean and Wendy how you doing hello

family oh Lumberjack in the house look

at him

didn’t Lumberjack and Dion do an amazing

deep dive yesterday and also a live

Three Amigos

um we’re so lucky to have them as part

of one rental at a time

hi Zuber thanks for doing this what are

your thoughts on buying in a flood zone

have you or any of your experts dealt

with homes in a flood area so I bought a

home

let me see if I can remember the street

address

I can’t remember anyways uh in Fresno

um they had these canals running through

Fresno I bought a home on one of the

canals and didn’t know it was in a flood

zone

I figured out was in a flood zone uh in

closing uh normal Insurance on a home

for me call it 800 bucks

I got my insurance quote four grand that

was a problem

I was already committed to close I

wasn’t backing out

so we closed uh there there was a

process because I just didn’t understand

it was was truly in a flood zone so what

I did in that example is I paid I think

I paid like

2500 bucks for a survey

uh the survey came out I didn’t know how

it was gonna finish it could have gone

either way but the survey came out did

their report showed that it was no

longer in a flood plain or a flood zone

uh then they filed paperwork with the

city the city updated their map and

about six months later

uh my property was no longer in a flood

zone and we got it out

uh so that’s how I handled it

um

you know that’s my one example uh I have

a lot of people that buy in other states

I’m assuming many of them are there it’s

expensive you just got to run the

numbers

um and it’s not getting less expensive

right there’s a lot of people buying in

Florida today that are getting shocked

with insurance quotes that are double

and triple

but there are ways around it right for

me I paid for a survey I rolled the dice

we’ll see if um you know it doesn’t

always work but it did my example but uh

just know the numbers know the math if

it doesn’t work back out right because

again for a lot of people

you know going from I forget 800 to 4

grand or whatever it was would have

killed the deal

um

I wanted the house I felt committed so I

didn’t I didn’t want to back out but

that that was just me

good morning investor wealth how are you

uh Sean think we can have

GDP keep going down and unemployment

stays strong with inflation still

remaining High something new instead of

stagflation Maybe

yeah so that’s interesting I have

thought a lot about that

uh I think we could certainly have that

combination for months but not years

I think what’s actually going on right

now

is something we talked about

um

I don’t know five months ago on my

channel

I think what’s happening right now is

we’re seeing a switch from stuff to

services

and when you have that there’s a lot of

hiring in the services area

and you have a lot of wage inflation

there as well

um

so yeah I think I think I think you can

um I also think the consumers is cutting

back they’re scared

uh so yeah I I still think I

I haven’t changed my opinion I think all

four quarters

will be negative GDP this year

that’s in the face of a strong job

market in unemployment going down

just is I think GDP will be negative I

think it will be very housing related

I think the FED has to break the economy

but yeah I think we can have this for

another three or four months it’s it’s a

wild thing to look at this will not be

called a recession we keep adding half a

million jobs no chance this is a

recession

I don’t care if we get negative two two

percent GDP we’re adding five percent

or 500 000 jobs not coming

another thing you guys got to remember

our last two presidents our current one

and the last one

been very anti-immigration

if you go back and look at a trend line

for immigration we’re about 2 million

light on legal migration legal

immigration

legal immigration these are job creators

very often on entrepreneurs

um

Construction Services it’s we have

really done ourselves a disservice right

the United States has been a growing

population

not necessarily because of birth and

death rates but because we’ve been the

most amazing country to be a part of and

it’s where you come to make your dreams

and the streets aligned with gold and

all of those things

the current in the past president

near as I could tell don’t like legal

immigration

that in my opinion needs to change we

need we need to have a a robust process

to make sure the goods good come and the

bad don’t don’t get me wrong this is not

about open borders and let everybody in

by no stretch but it can’t stay close

forever either

because if we do people these

entrepreneurs are going to go somewhere

else

and those are jobs jobs jobs so I don’t

know if it’s scoring system or what it

is it’s above my pay grade but the doors

can’t stay closed to the best and

brightest forever

um I think that’s I don’t think that’s

what the United States was built on

right we’ve been all of us most of us

we’re immigrants at some somewhere in

our background right my

I think it was my great great

grandparents came over from Serbia

might have been one more I always it was

always my grandmother wasn’t very

certain on that

um my other side my mom’s side came from

Ireland fitzpatricks

I think that was my great great

grandfather so

we all come from immigrants and we need

we need to have

a process scoring system seems right

whatever it is uh but we need we need

that need the door needs to get cracked

open because right now we’re seeing uh

baby boomers retire we’re seeing

participation rate go down these are

these all happen mean wage inflation

goes up this is all wage inflation and

if we get wage inflation CPI is going to

be wickedly sticky

because as we’ve learned

what happens when you pay your employees

more you raise the price to Consumers

and it’s just a vicious cycle

so yeah

it’s very it’s a very very economically

speaking this is a wild time to watch

it’s pretty cool

uh could you post the Deep dive Link in

today on the Facebook group JC it’s

already there

I posted it earlier in the week

um

I saved it though so let me see

I think I can do it fast so let me see

if I can do it from my phone real fast

here we go oh nope that’s not it

deep dive here we go

okay copy doing it right now look at

that nothing like service

a d u

a d u Deep dive reminder

all right there we go post all right JC

just did it right now

ninja ninja vanish these are great names

good morning how are you Angel again

shout out to you

uh Jeff you said fed needs to break

something yep what other things could

break besides housing and stock market

that would have tremendous deflationary

effects on every Market that needs to

cool

I don’t think you need to do anything

else I think I think I think housing

when you go back and look at the last

dozen recessions

housing has been a leading Force it’s

it’s very sticky uh housing also uh and

then when you throw in the stock market

the negative wealth effect

I guess the I guess the other thing Jeff

that’s not on your list is unemployment

that’s would you really break it when

you really boil it down it’s not even

housing and the stock market needs to

break

the FED needs to break the jobs Market

that’s what they need to break

let me just tell you this the Fed was

not happy the Fed was not happy that

unemployment rate went down and wages

went up

they weren’t happy

that’s the boogeyman

so yes I do believe they’re going to

break housing yes I do believe they’re

going to break the stock market at some

point

uh but they need to break unemployment

now unemployment doesn’t need to go

bonkers

I think if they get unemployment from

three and a half to five

they’ll call that a win

now of course the FED can’t say that

because you know

that’s not cool but for most of my adult

life full employment as an economist has

been six percent

we’re at three and a half

in like 2000

six I think

you know economists got together I never

understand this and they took full

employment from six to five percent

so in my mind Jeff

they break down they need to bring

that’s what they need to break it needs

to go from three and a half percent

unemployed to five

that’s what I think they’re looking at

unfortunately

Jeff my Market’s still bananas put in a

cash list price offer got outbid three

to five others 20 asking anything that

sits for 30 days is wish pricing St

Louis Missouri looking for primary

residents

well

um

again in what I’m what’s going to

eventually happen

in my opinion this is my wild ass guess

right now as I’ve said many times we are

in that really weird stage where more

sellers are coming on

very much wish pricing

most of them will let it sit and take it

off

what I think is going to happen by the

end of August maybe September certainly

October

is you are going to start to see

listings sit and sit and sit those my

folks those my friends those are

potentially motivated sellers

those are the motivated sellers that’s

where I’m gonna fish

I don’t know why an owner occupant

wouldn’t do anything different

um I I want to buy from a motivated

seller otherwise I’m overpaying in my

opinion now I realize saying that it’s a

very different story I’m an investor

you’re shopping for your family so I get

it

um there’s certainly a different Dynamic

you probably want a school zone you

probably want this or that but that’s a

buy box to me owner occupants in my

opinion still have a buy box look every

day find a motivated seller

get going

it’s it’s not it’s not going to be easy

you’re you know

I tell to everybody I wrote 100 offers

on the MLS in 2021 20 20. I think it was

  1. got nothing

I think this year if I write 20 or 25

offers I’ll get i’ll get a few counters

because again I’m going to write them on

Old listings

and frankly Jeff if I found a listing

that I really liked that was 30 days old

in wish pricing I would write the offer

anyway

I don’t know St Louis so let’s just make

some numbers up

let’s say you found a house that you

really liked

you think it’s worth 275 they they think

it’s worth 315.

I would still write the offer at 275.

you never know

when that mode there’s a motivated

seller yeah it’s still wish pricing but

who cares write the offer write the

offer write the offer

write the offer

just write the offer what’s the worst

thing they can say no thanks no scream

at you who cares move on

yeah so one thing I would tell you that

I don’t see in your comment is write the

offer just write the offer write the

offer

and then follow up every two weeks write

the offer again

the deals are in the follow-up the deals

are in the follow-up

Paul V good morning how are you

uh I watch every minute of your content

by the way wow Jeff that’s hard to do

that’s hard to do

wow thank you thank you thank you that’s

hard to do I have a buy box awesome

just everything is chaos shows no signs

of cooling well I disagree with that

you may not see it because you’re in the

middle of it

but I’m going to guess

six months ago Jeff you had no listings

30 days older I’m just gonna guess maybe

it was 60 days ago

it is cooling the fact that you have

wish pricing today it is cooling wish

pricing in January Jeff sold

so I just I think you’re too close to it

the market today given what you’ve told

me is changing

it may not be changing enough it may not

be changing fast

but given what you’ve told me here Jeff

it is changing you might just be too

close to see it

uh yep you can check FEMA’s website for

flood zones yep

do you Angel do you think China

sanctions on the U.S are something to be

concerned about

um I haven’t seen it I mean there was

some sanction about climate and um this

or that I think it’s all noise I have

family in Taiwan as I’ve been very clear

about

um that’s where my wife’s from and I’ve

been to many many times

I would tell you the folks in Taiwan are

more nervous today

because of what Nancy Pelosi did than

they were two months ago

I think Nancy Pelosi decided to do

something for her in her Legacy and not

the Taiwan people

and I say that as somebody who has

family friends and I’ve probably spent

100 days in Taiwan maybe more

um so I think I think uh Nancy’s Nancy

did something with self-service Legacy

building you know hey I’m the highest

ranking American there in 25 years

whatever

I think she did something for her not

for the people so my friends and family

that are there are more nervous today

than they were two weeks ago which

that’s just sad that’s just sad in my

opinion

but I don’t think we in the U.S

I haven’t seen anything to be concerned

about

I yeah who knows

I haven’t really looked I haven’t looked

for it either

Lance when investing out of state how

many times should I visit the market I

want to invest in before buying and how

often after buying also should I only

buy in person

um

you know I again I’m probably not the

right guy to answer this

um because I haven’t never done it I’m

pretty

it’s it’s just risky

uh Millennial Mike has created some

content uh for my course on this others

have as well

um really for me it’s the network

I think you need to do a couple of

things

obviously you need a network of people

you’re going to pay Lance property

manager real estate agents contractors

but all of those people get paid in my

experience

people that get paid by you

may not lie to you but they will tell

you the most Rosy picture possible

and unfortunately they will tell you

half truths or incomplete truths as a

landlord

you need the whole story

so the big deal for me Lance is you need

to have a strong enough network of other

Real Estate Investors

or people that don’t that you don’t pay

that are will drive by your property and

go hey Lance

did you know somebody’s throwing a yard

sale or somebody’s parking on the grass

or wow that dumpster has been over full

for a long you need somebody to tell you

the bad news

you need somebody you don’t pay to tell

you the truth not half truth so that’s

the sticking point for me

so how long does that take you tell me

you tell me uh I think it is ridiculous

to invest in a market you’ve never been

to that’s my opinion can it work sure

is it risky yes

I think you need to go there now how

often

I do think at some point once you have a

network and a team you don’t have to go

anymore for example I haven’t been to

Fresno California since early 2020. just

haven’t had to go

we’ve probably done

12 transactions

buys and sells in that time frame

[Music]

um

have the team do live streams do uh what

do they’re called

face times or whatever they’re called

so it can be done you don’t always have

to go once it’s rocking and rolling

I do think you should do surprise

inspections that’s something that I did

that really caught a couple of property

managers by surprise

sometimes you tell them you’re coming

and it looks great and you go back and

you tell them you’re gone doesn’t look

great very frustrating

so I’m not sure if I answered your

questions or I just talked around in

circles but hopefully that gives you

enough you need somebody that’s going to

tell you bad news preferably somebody

you don’t pay

thank you for your time you’re very

welcome how should I research employers

and job creation in a market any tool

you would recommend

uh I actually recommend not overthinking

it uh I would suggest getting the local

paper

the local paper

yeah just get the local paper they are

rewarded for selling the story of that

area so I wouldn’t overthink it read the

local paper I have been reading the

Fresno Bee which is my local paper for

um almost 20 years

it’s amazing all kinds of stuff were

covered in the Fresno Bee that would

never hit the state’s radar or the let

alone the national radar

like I hear about warehouses and I heard

I heard Amazon was coming to Fresno in

the Fresno b a year before it hit the

national news

read the local paper don’t overthink it

China has a major demographic issue yep

yeah the one child policy is going to be

a pain to undo

yeah

yes yeah it’s uh they do have a problem

34 five single-family homes cool

they all have fixed rate debt nice

cool

uh so you don’t tell me what the fixed

rate debt is I’m going to assume it has

a four or lower

um

yeah I mean I can only tell you my

opinion everybody do their own thing I

only worry about fixed rate dead over

six

that’s that’s that’s my line

if I can’t if I can’t eventually get

better than six percent yield I will pay

off the debt

um the other thing that I you know I

need to mention here is uh when I got

close to or when I retired kind of out

of the blue we spent about six months

doing some cash out refi’s on four

plexes to pay off houses because I

wanted to have a dozen or so houses free

and clear

um you know

yeah I mean there’s something to be said

I mean Dion did it right Dion paid off a

house and he’s loving that

um there you know

I guess the answer for you

um is

if you’ve got your number if five is

what you want and you’re done

if if you’re done with five which is

totally cool right I’ve always said four

changes your life so congratulations you

have a bonus

if you’re done if you’re done growing

then by all means pay off your debt by

all means because again the Sooners paid

off the more your cash flow grows and

you’re done now most people would hear

that statement go the opportunity cost

and oh you can’t do this and you screw

them who cares this is about you don’t

listen to all the mathematicians out

there that aren’t in your situation if

you’re done at five congratulations

but if you want to get to 10

and your 30-year money is fours

the right answer is to keep growing

so hopefully that answers your question

wandering dark that’s fun

um yeah great video on selling

properties yeah I can’t believe

I don’t know what it is about I mean

first off is housing crash and now sell

everything is a title

but hey you got to play the YouTube

algorithm so I created a video called

sell everything that starts with I’m not

selling anything but hey it is what it

is that’s funny thank you for that

I had one partially failed 1031 with the

one-year missed rent selling cost it was

not worth it yeah dude

yeah it can bite you

I I don’t know who would sell if you’re

a if you’re a one rental at a time fan

student

follower

you bought in 18 19 20 21 at low rates

why would you sell

I did a video today even if you got a 10

correction which and you timed it

perfectly you still lose you still lose

oh it’s so funny why would you sell yeah

yeah I have one only one conclusion

prices advice never sell

yes

well never is a big story I mean I so I

sold a couple of times

one I sold when I my affordability

crashed and I moved to Apartments so

that’s an exchange I would not sell

houses today because it’s it’s still

affordable in my market as wild as that

is to say

and then I sold problem properties I

talked about a Triplex I sold last year

I don’t know maybe it was a year before

like I tried to work on this property

for three four five years it just never

worked so I’ll sell a problem property

but other than that yeah you’re silly to

sell if you’re a one rental at a time

fan with 30-year fixed rate debt the

cash flows today and you’re getting an

amazing yield

let the 70s let the 52-yard spreadsheet

be your guide it only gets better from

here I have a shirt that everybody

should get it says I’m looking at it

right now I use inflation to get rich

ask me how

never sell

never sell yeah

Adam I had two rentals that I bought one

in 2010 200k another in 2012 100K I sold

the first in 2020 for 500 and sold this

the other for 350 two months ago

congratulations

I was a motivated seller for the second

one since I had listed at 399 but gladly

took 350 I figured crazy Market by the

way I had both paid off completely cool

good for you

good for you I you know that’s what you

wanted to do congratulations

uh even in real estate prices dropped 40

tomorrow we’re back to 2018 the same

Year everyone was still telling airless

state was overvalued and by next year

when it crashed in

I don’t understand why people listen to

kids in their mom’s basement who are

renters to never buy that that always

made me

and then you listen to people that have

only been doing this for two or three

years

wouldn’t you want to listen to somebody

that’s doing it 20 plus years not only

survived the last crash but got out of

the way in time and then profited I mean

it is really funny how many people

listen to somebody in their mom’s

basement who is on tenant of course

they’re going to say it’s going to crash

they needed to crash

I just think that’s comical to me so

funny

is there an argument going on around a

crash where did I see this oh is there

something I missed I must have missed

one

three months of straight home price

decline I don’t know what you’re looking

at exactly what happened in 08 for 24

months will be ugly two years of

artificial growth

I don’t know what you’re looking at uh

you must maybe that’s your Market that’s

certainly not the country

uh

year on year appreciation was up 16.4

percent so I don’t know what you’re

talking about

um if you’re gonna you know sit on the

couch and wait for a crash good less

competition for me

I’m fine with that I you know let me

also say

I want a 50 crash in prices I would love

a 50 crash in prices I give a rat’s ass

about my balance sheet I would love to

have a 50 crash I make less money on

YouTube not saying there was a crash I

had every incentive to say a 50 crash is

coming if it’s just not it’s just not

we’re gonna have a 50 crash in

transactions it is going to lead to a

recession it is going to feel like a

depression

could your Market could your buy box

fall 30 sure I have no idea what it is

is the country going to fall 30 percent

come on is the market going to fall 30

by November as one of these great real

estate channels is calling for are you

kidding me

just nonsense total nonsense but hey you

believe it’s gonna crash great you sit

on the sidelines you wait

I’ve been hearing about a crash since

2012.

Sean it seems when the FED pauses has

historically been the indicator a

recession is happening

when do you think they pause I’m

thinking q1 Q2 of 2023

it’s all about CPI again I I it’s it’s

funny I I don’t have a very good picture

right usually I feel good about my calls

I don’t know I have no call about

Wednesday Wednesday is a big day

CPI Wednesday if it comes in at nine

three or above

the FED May raise

they may be raising till the summer of

next year

and that’s when they pause if we have a

CPI on Wednesday we’re not talking weeks

away we’re talking days away of nine

three or above

there’s probably no Cuts until 2024. now

let’s assume it comes in at eight six or

eight five or eight four

like Wall Street wants

then they probably stop

in q1

cut in Q3

but again as I think I said a couple of

times now

I have no good feeling about CPI on

Wednesday I could I could talk myself

into any number

and if you’ve been watching my channel

for six months

you know that I I really enjoy making a

call that I feel good about

I have no idea what Wednesday is going

to be so it’s the first time in a long

time

I have no confidence I’m going to take

the over while hoping for the under but

I just don’t know I don’t know

JC love oret thank you for that I

appreciate that having bought some

single families now the issue of setting

up a great system so one can manage

effectively in scale

uh would that weren’t a separate

discussion yeah we did a video on

Wednesday the Three Amigos live I think

it’s almost 90 minutes

we asked uh Matt and Dion who have been

self-managing all kinds of questions I

would check that video out

we probably should do a deep dive just

for my students so it’s more intimate

we’re not over the place uh maybe we’ll

do that in the next couple months but

yeah

uh get your numbers right 2.9 is the

bottom of mortgages it’s no means the

average of all mortgages in the U.S

I don’t know apparently somebody’s

arguing with somebody I don’t know

semiconductor stock Pelosi

yeah I don’t yeah whatever yeah

super yep hi Johnny how are you

hi Izzy how are you

oh I inherited a set of paid off

mixed-use buildings all occupied in

decent rents

uh is I think that’s is now a good time

to take a mortgage and what’s a good

rate for commercial

um well I mean it all depends on your

plans

um

I mean there’s a lot of there’s a lot

more details there what are you gonna do

with the money what do you need I mean

do you like cash flow are you going to

grow

um

I don’t know I mean let’s just play it

out let’s say let’s just say I inherited

a bunch of properties for my great great

aunt for some reason that we’re free and

clear

what would I do

yeah I mean in reality I’d probably I

mean again everybody’s situation is

different I have no idea what you would

do but what I would do

is I’d probably go get a 50 loan to

value loan get the best rates I’d get a

30-year fixed

and then I would use that to buy more

assets that’s that’s what I would do and

again like when I refined my buildings

here nine months ago I would sit on the

cache and wait for great deals

but again I don’t know you your

situation your lifestyle any of that so

I only can answer what I would do if my

great aunt left me a couple of buildings

I would conservatively Finance it with

30-year fixed rate debt

uh you would have to go to a non-qm

lender I would not get a commercial five

one seven one I would get no arms I

don’t like arms ever

I think good rates for non-comm lenders

today are probably in the sevens

that’s where they are commercial might

be lower but their arms I hate arms

uh

uh nah

Jeffrey with the humor the dad joke I

like it I don’t know is that a dad joke

I don’t know it’s really funny though

thanks Jeffrey

what are your thoughts on townhouse for

single family investment in my area

townhouse is a good cash flow but not

single family you got to be careful on

Town Homes I think a lot of people run

the numbers and forget HOA forget HOA

goes up forget HOA rules

I have one uh one I think it’s a condo

that I have

in my Investment Portfolio

uh I bought it for cash I was lucky

enough to be in that situation and I

treat the HOA like a mortgage and

unfortunately the mortgage has gone up

the last couple years which really

pisses me off

but yeah HOAs can go up

and they have rules and sometimes

there’s rules about number of tenants

and or a number of units that can be

rentals so read those HOA rules

uh

so I think I think you were oh you have

fixed rate I think this is the five

units oh dude if you have if you have

mortgage rates three three why would you

pay those off I mean seriously why

that’s that’s free money

I would not like I I won’t I would not

pay off any of my if my mortgage rate

was two and a half I would never I would

not pay that off early

no I think there’s a time let’s just be

very clear I think in the next 12 to 18

months

you’re going to get higher interest rate

on your savings

think about that you can get I think

there will be a time in the next two

years where the savings rates could be

two percent

so why would you pay off your mortgage

if you can get I mean yeah makes no

sense

that’s a crazy good race congratulations

how do you advise how much house you can

afford in terms of assuming 10K monthly

net income

for a first home plan live five seven

years William good news is uh I don’t

pretend to be a mortgage broker a lawyer

or a CPA I would work with a

professional

the general rule of thumb I think in the

industry is 30 but again everybody’s

situation is different so

yeah

yeah I would I would ask a mortgage

broker and go through it I think life is

about discretionary income needs versus

wants

so I I would run the numbers

uh yep I just asked what Sony would do

yeah

hi Sonny you want to say hi

in case everybody’s wondering who Sonny

is

this is sunny he had a birthday last

week he is now one years old you can see

he’s pretty tired

we’ll put it back

you want to be seen oh Happy’s jealous

now

and this of course is happy

the big sister oh you’re really tired

huh okay you can go back to that

they’re with me every day every day in

the office they have two beds

right there one each

uh what are your thoughts on buying

today at 6.8 I dude angel I would do a

deal today at 10 percent

I don’t care what the cost of capital is

um what I was saying was to the earlier

question when do I get to a point of

slowing down I would do everything I can

to pay those loans down or refi them or

whatever

I would do deals today at 10 interest

they have to cash flow they have to be

great yields they have to do all those

things cost of capital today doesn’t

matter I will do all kinds of deals

at seven eight nine ten percent

but when the economy slows or picks up

or whatever I will look at all my high

rate loans and focus on paying them off

or refinancing them later

cost of capital is just one one cell on

a little spreadsheet for me

I’m still buying

what’s the process for setting up

one-on-one coaching call

um so if you buy my course that includes

mentoring

it comes with one 30-minute mentoring

call

uh all you have to do is reach out uh

email me which you can do right off my

website if you’re in the course you can

email me you can DM me on Facebook if

you’re in the group

if you could DM me on Instagram we just

set it up it’s pretty low-key we can

either do a phone call many people

choose to do a zoom I’m okay either way

but yeah you have to buy that option

um and it’s expensive it’s you know 30

bucks a minute

um but if you if that if it’s that

important I wanted to have that option I

didn’t offer one-on-one coaching forever

I just I didn’t want to sell bits of my

life but so many people asked for it so

I put it out there and uh yeah it’s it’s

helping I think I have a coaching call

tomorrow as a matter of fact at eight

uh thanks Mike it’s tough to keep with

the corporate grind that I hate even

though it pays well I hate it yeah

I’m sorry

uh what is the best resource or book for

sales training in your sales experience

and The Lumberjack if you’re in the chat

um

yeah solution selling

is probably the best I see The

Lumberjack put that there too yeah

yeah I think solution selling yeah

really what selling is to me though is

listening it’s funny most sales people

talk too much

the other thing selling is is

storytelling that’s why I was really

good at taking products from nothing to

something

is I only worried about the story and I

changed the story as as I learn more

ready fire rain it’s never about being

perfect it’s not getting feedback

all right one more question because I

got to get ready for the students

oh Wonder dock 90 passive investor in

syndications good for you

wow look at that debt structure wow 2.37

oh

yeah the debt that ass that’s it I keep

telling people that’s the asset

why would you ever pay that off I mean

seriously what are you kidding me no no

chance

yep the kids the kid in the mom’s

basement that’s a renter I always

thought that

let’s see

all right folks it’s been a lot of fun

for me I hope you angel thank you very

much for the Super Chat YouTube you got

one super chat today good luck keep

pushing my channel

uh guys have a lot of fun I’m gonna go

get ready for an amazing live on doing

adus the right way I’m of course going

to share my experience of doing it the

wrong way and just burning money which

I do sometimes so have fun take care of

yourself have an amazing Saturday

take care bye bye

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.