Inflation Peak, Headline Down Again, Stock Market Rips Higher. BUT Core Inflation Proves Sticky

Closed Captioning:

this meeting is being recorded good

morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael zuber one rental at a time

back with taylor from life goal

investments how you doing buddy doing

great your shirts get better and better

every week and mine always stays the

same you just make me look bad every

week i appreciate it we got to get you

some color man we got to get you some

color i know i know i know

well hey one of the things i want to do

is once again put your feet to the fire

and talk about the future make some

crazy predictions again these are just

wild ass guesses from two crazy guys who

don’t mind

putting guesses out there so uh we have

a huge number coming out tomorrow market

moving

and that will be cpi

uh as you know

uh cpi actually has two numbers in it

it’ll be headline and core

i actually uh actually before i i’m

going to ask you what you think’s coming

and then i’ll tell you what i think is

coming so cpi tomorrow what do you think

happens

yeah it’s funny every one of these is

the most important one yeah exactly

and it really does feel like that that’s

the way the market seems to be you know

a coiled spring ready to react one way

or the other it really does feel that

way so just by way of context we came

from a peak of nine point one percent

inflation that was two months ago and

then it ticked down to eight five and

now it looks like expectations tomorrow

by the market is looking at an eight

percent headline inflation number eight

eight one i’ve seen both but yes okay

yep so eight to eight one so um i have

persistently been admittedly early on

inflation going away and a lot of that

goes back to

um my broad thoughts on technology being

a massive deflationary pressure and that

being persistent but also i’ve been

wrong and thinking it’s too early

because oil did not

abate as quickly as i thought it was

which now oil has rolled over for now

two straight months um i actually a

little bit more than that since i think

81 days in a row

81 days in a row gas prices which is

just just crazy crazy talk right um but

yeah so that’s why you’re not seeing as

many posts on on the high gas prices

anymore yeah exactly exactly yeah but

yeah no so that’s been meaningful so

that’s a big component of the headline

number the other big components of the

headline numbers are housing as well as

food prices those are kind of the big

three if you will yeah good energy you

want it’s food and gas in headline brent

is in core but all three of those

correct yeah yeah so i i’m speaking

headline number here i think the big

driver inclusive

yep the big drivers are going to be you

know housing they call it shelter um

uh now i’ve lost my train of thought so

housing as well as uh food and as well

as energy right or oil prices so i think

what you see is a massive massive

downtick in oil prices which is a big

big win from a headline perspective

correct and so i do think we actually

get a downward print from eight percent

something in the sevens is what i

anticipate from a headline number so so

again let’s say that because what i said

on the daily financial news expectations

is eight one you’re calling something in

the seventh

yeah i i think it’s high sevens i mean

that is to be clear that is a big big

move downwards oh yeah like a month yeah

and and you also have to realize that we

went up at a you know a a parabolic type

shift upwards earlier this year some of

that had to do with the fact that the

numbers that we were looking at relative

last year yeah the basis

the base effect right from a year ago

we’re already so so now we’ve already

gotten that shift upwards a year ago

inflation had already taken hold and

therefore when you’re looking at a year

prior you’re not looking at depressed

numbers like you were earlier this year

because pandemic was still really in

effect at that point so i think that has

a really meaningful effect as we go

forward on what inflationary numbers

look like

so you know what we agree this time

we haven’t agreed the last three months

full disclosure like let me give the

audience and they know all too well

michael’s been right i have been wrong

he has been well on the over over over

over over train and he’s been right and

i will ask you this to put your feet to

the fire a little bit what’s going on in

wages because i know that’s been your

biggest driver of the over well this

this is

this is the most important wrinkle and i

think i know i think wall street’s going

to miss it and again when i say wall

street retail is going to miss it yep

yep

so again i on my daily financial news

sunday morning i made my call i said

expectations were 8-1 i think we come in

at eight and we actually could see seven

nine

so i’m calling for the first time under

but here’s the bugaboo we are about to

learn for the first time since the early

eighties

why the fed has headline in core

headline as we will quickly learn can be

monkeyed with when you start releasing a

million barrels a day from our strategic

reserve gasoline falls

you sure that’s how it works supply

demand i’m guessing that’s what my

degree says yes so again you release an

extra million barrels

a day

prices go down headline goes down

yep

what i think wall street’s gonna miss

tomorrow

is core is going to stay flat or go up

last month core was five nine

expectations for core are six

i am calling for core to be six two so

let’s talk about what this means to me i

believe the worst case scenario tomorrow

his headline comes in lower than

expected

seven nine or eight but clearly peak

inflation peak inflation deflation is

coming

and core goes up because rent is

starting to ripple through and wages we

have had our first two months in a row

this will likely be our third of wade

real wage growth

and i think it gets worse from here so

again

the wall street’s gonna rip if what

happens happens what if what i think

happens happens your take is they’re

going to react on headline exactly

because retail retail that’s certainly

what retail is affected by no doubt the

warning will rip

yeah the morning will rip the adults

will come in later

i would just say that’s a good point the

institutions start to step in you see

immediate reaction then all of a sudden

they get the reigns pulled back in on

them

and the fed’s gonna bang us with 75 on

the 21st because again

the only way the only way conceivable to

get a 50 because right now it’s a 50 or

75 i don’t think anybody’s calling for

instance it’s a 90 chance that i looked

this morning that was gonna be 75 i did

too yeah

the only way you get 50 is if you get

headlined like seven seven and core goes

to five five

could it happen sure i have no idea am

it’s not what i’m calling for but that’s

i just we’re getting banged with 75 and

again i think i think core going up is

the problem the fed will just keep

pointing at that going problem problem

problem problem problem but stock market

rips like we keep saying the same thing

over and over and over don’t fight the

fed and when the fed tells you i look at

core i look at core i look at core i

look cool

core core i

they’re making no bones about what

they’re doing i i do have an interesting

question for you though please going

back to kind of the the oil prices and

the conversation about strategic

reserves et cetera last week on monday i

believe it was opec decides to cut oil

100 000 right so so oil so so by the way

oil market in general is just a big

cartel that is controlled by opec so

everyone understands that opec opec plus

blah blah blah yeah opec plus right

controls the supply and demand of oil

around the world and if prices get too

high they increase supply to try to

bring down prices and if prices fall off

which is what we’re seeing right now

they decrease the production to boost

the price shocking

but no yeah but here we go this is where

it gets a little bit weird and a little

bit tricky last week they cut production

so lower supply on a supply demand

effect drives prices up

oil prices roll over last week yeah so

uh as i remembered oil went up monday

the day it was announced and then rolled

over it’s a closed market in the united

states yeah and declared well oil

doesn’t really close but yes

in a relatively closed market right yeah

then it rolled over wednesday and

actually ended the week lower

correct so in my mind

that screams

again what so i believe 2023 i don’t

think you and i talk because you took

last week off to be with your in-laws

for labor day so that’s okay

but i think 2023

yeah it’s like yeah you got to take a

day off every once in a while i get it

gosh i only asked for one hour a week

that’s okay uh i i kid the market was

closed so you could take a day off um

i actually think 2023

taylor could be the worst economic year

of my adult life

so what does this mean why is why does

oil go down because i think we see the

third worldwide recession

uh in the last i don’t know 70 years i

don’t

asia trouble europe trouble i think

america gets pulled into a recession

because of housing depression

that’s why gas is down it’s just so i

don’t disagree with you whatsoever on

what the result or what the cause of gas

being down is gas being down is a direct

direct direct reflection as to what’s

going on in the economy globally because

that is a global global market not

everything is but gas and i’m sorry oil

is absolutely a global market and i do

agree with you and we’ve belabored this

point maybe a little bit or at least i

have what’s going on in europe right now

is is really a scary thing and and we

are to to come talking a little bit

about video number two russia

next episode but not nonetheless um

what’s going on with russia squeezing

squeezing squeezing the dependence of uh

on

of europe on their oil production is

going to have a massive effect and the

stuff that’s coming out of the

narratives that are coming out of how

they’re going to deal with this as the

cold winter months come around really is

a scary proposition for europe and their

inflation is just i mean we think we

have a bad here their inflation is

rampant it really is well again you know

we should all hope for peace and

prosperity today tomorrow no just hope

it ends and then oil gets or the you

know natural gas it all gets turned back

on

but if it doesn’t if we go through the

winter with this

um

we will see small businesses close shop

we will see

it’s

it’s frightening to think about the

ripple effects because at some point

i mean they’re going to try price

controls and as you know anything about

the 70s in the united states we tried

price controls they don’t work they feel

good for like three seconds

and then they don’t and then your

currency gets hit because you’re issuing

all this debt and it’s just

bad you know

i am very i mean europe

certainly in a recession but if this if

this goes on for through the winter and

they have a harsh winter let’s also pray

for a warm winter or a mild winter or

whatever the right for sure is for sure

it could be

it could be pretty bad

yeah and it’s interesting so like that’s

the economic standpoint from a market

standpoint we also have to realize

what’s going on in the united states

right now and and globally for that

matter but let’s focus on the united

states so globally right now there’s 39

major central banks

25 including the fed hours of those 39

central banks are raising rates so the

fed is telling us we’re going to

continue to take rates higher but i

think the thing that’s going under

appreciated is the fact that we are just

getting on the onset right now of this

quantitative tightening process yeah 95

billion september yep yes so some

numbers on that right now the fed’s

balance sheet contains about one-third

of our entire treasury and

mortgage-backed securities market whoa

that has about one-third of the

mortgage-backed securities and the

treasury market and for contacts that’s

nine trillion dollars of balance sheet

nine trillion with a t

our global i’m sorry our annual gdp

is around 21 to 23 depending on the year

trillion dollars so that’s about 40

percent of our global gdp i’m sorry i

keep saying global our annual gdp of the

united states sits on the fed’s balance

sheet and they are telling us actively

we are going to let that roll into the

market we are going to let that bleed

through and so that has a lot of forego

or a lot of knock on kind of things that

end up taking place in dominoes that

continue to fall because of that on the

other side of it quantitative easing

when the fed was in the market buying

these assets you saw nothing but asset

prices from stocks bonds come on

ripping

ripping so now when that omnipotent

buyer that sits in there and says i’ll

buy anything

takes their hands away and there’s no

floor there to exist

that backstop’s not there and they’re

raising rates at the same time and when

the fed’s not buying mortgages

what do you think happens to mortgage

rates

yeah i came out the other day and said

that uh i could see mortgage rates at

seven percent which again in a housing

market we’re going to go and do a

depression

it’s going to happen because

transactions i mean the 30 years got to

be darn close to six right right now

yeah actually it ticked to six and a

quarter i think on thursday night i was

gonna say i thought it was yeah yeah the

cycle peak was 6.28 in june we got up to

6.25 it’s coming i’m i started calling

for seven percent and taylor i did some

math just using the ratios we have today

we could see an eight

eight

yeah that’s not good

okay that’s not good geez and that

really is a scary thing and and to the

point that we’ve had conversations that

before housing accounts for about 15 of

the overall gross domestic product here

in the united states it’s not just the

housing that changes but it’s the

builder then it’s home depot then it’s

all the bleed through knock on raymore

and flanagan all the furniture

everything that bleeds into that the

labor that builds that i mean it’s all

of those things that get affected by

mortgage rates yeah it’s it’s it’s this

is again why i think 2023 uh could be

the worst economic year of my life i

think 2024 is much better i just i just

think we need time right the everybody

wants the crash tomorrow

they want it tomorrow right this is not

an nft it doesn’t happen that way the

economy uh you know frankly we’re not

even really seeing the impacts yet of

the fed rate increases right those are

six to 18 months lag so that’s correct i

uh you know again macro wise i’m very

concerned for 23 micro i’m excited i’m

ecstatic it’ll probably be the second

best year of my investing career because

i i will look for motivated sellers and

i’m willing to wait to find them here

yeah blood in the street like warren

buffett says you know who’s swimming

naked i’m gonna go i’m gonna have some

bathing suits for people and go hey i’ll

take that i’ll take that so let me ask

you something on that real quick um on

the on the selling side of existing

livers um existing

existing limits existing home owners

right so do you expect a massive tick-up

in that or a need to get people forced

out okay i didn’t think that was your

take but i just didn’t want to confuse

that last comment no i see record supply

destruction

for 40 years the housing market was

generally i move in i live there five

years i move up because the bigger house

costs more but rates generally speaking

we’re down it made the move up easier

with the cycle that we’re on now the

move up buyers dead first-time inventory

doesn’t exist home builders aren’t

building we are going to have a record

crash in housing transactions millions

and millions of transactions crashed

hence a housing depression however

life doesn’t stop death divorce job

transfers

non-perfect properties that aren’t

perfect for fha there will be lots of

people that need to sell that won’t fit

in a market where somebody has to pay

eight percent but because i’m a

well-heeled investor i could buy for

cash i can use private money i got lots

of ways to do deals

yep so i will be looking for those

opportunities specifically to wrap this

up i plan to deploy less cash and buy

more assets via creative financing

that’s what i’ll be doing in the next 18

months

love it love it gotta strike with the

irons hot the opportunity’s there and to

your point when you don’t have a

competition because it’s eight percent

mortgage rates

there aren’t many hands out there

looking to say hey i’ll give you cash

for it right now yeah or you know what

even better

here’s my cash number make it up 200 or

we could do terms and i’ll give you 250.

[Laughter]

there you go there you go there you go

taylor where can people find you

yeah find us at life goal investments on

instagram is the best spot appreciate it

michael as always and folks if you’re

not watching uh life goal investments on

ig you’re missing out he just put out a

video or a post on tax loss harvesting

you have to go check it out it could

save you a lot of money thanks for all

you do bud

appreciate you

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