Video Closed Captioning:
good morning good afternoon good evening
michael zuber one rental at a time it is
wednesday and yes that means we bring
back the one and only matt the mortgage
guy how you doing buddy i’m doing great
i wore a purple shirt i got a purple
background god we are just we are
aligned brother our brands are in sync
that’s pretty awesome hey uh one thing i
wanted to do is i got a lot of questions
from our conversation last week about
barry habib’s prediction right we we
spent a lot of time talking about barry
habib’s the man he’s won this crystal
ball award multiple times
he just
very good at what he does and then we
talked about his prediction which was
hey rates are going to go up in the
short term but they’re ultimately going
to roll over and go down and then we
kind of ended the interview people are
like well what does that mean so i
thought maybe
we should break it down a little bit for
people and i don’t know has barry
changed his opinion at all no and you
know that uh
came out i think me and you add a little
bit of our own color to it maybe rates
go up a little bit higher a little bit
faster and so when they when they
retract if and when they do it’s to a
higher point than than maybe he had
predicted i think you know for quick
recap for anybody you know we talked
about um all the stuff that the fed’s
gonna do currently and they’ve already
talked about you know tapering and and
once they’re done tapering
actually hiking up the fed funds rate
rates go up and what barry was saying we
talked about previously is once uh
you know measures are put in place to
fight inflation and inflation comes down
um
then we’re gonna see
mortgage rates
go back down and uh you know i i don’t
recall what it was like offhand
specifically but you know he was talking
about rates going up to 3.75 but then
maybe towards the end of 22 coming back
down to three yeah and that’s and that’s
the key that i want to talk about
because again i don’t agree with them
but again he’s got the awards i don’t he
does this for a living i don’t so you
know hey
i’m gonna go i’m gonna go with him
so so to me though right so the fed does
its thing it does its little happy dance
rates get all the way up to 3.75 and
then they roll over
and they get back down to three to me
that’s a fast turnaround right we’re
talking about 11 and a half months
and again i was trying to think you know
based on the questions where i’m like
well what would really cause that well i
think the only answer is
i don’t know if it’s an official
recession meaning two negative quarters
but it certainly means a slowdown of
probably epic proportions i mean that’s
a
i mean that i mean right today they’re
the mortgage rates like 3.3 or 351 or
something right yeah and over the last
week we’ve seen it
you know go up faster than most people
thought i don’t think anybody predicted
what you know the last week and a half
that would go from three and a quarter
to i think on one of these um
you know
national surveys of rates it’s like 3.64
on a 30 year um and so
you know up faster than most people
thought and so
if
you know we see
q1 into q2 four percent which i don’t
think is that we’re not that far away
we’re no we’re really not that far away
then uh you know if and when that comes
i think me and you agree that it it
would feel
really fast to see that you know
retraction of rates happen this year
because i agree with you as well we’re
gonna end the year with an inflation
number that’s still four or five percent
i don’t know what your guesstimate was
but i think i’ve listened to enough of
your stuff where
you know we’re not going to go from
seven to two no chance this year no
chance right no um and so so i agree
with that that like if if it plays out
how barry talked about and a humongous
fan of barry followed barry forever i’ve
paid for his advice for years so that
tells you something yeah
uh
you know i see it playing out but maybe
it’s a 24 month or a 30 month window
versus a 12 month yeah that’s that’s
exactly my thing i think i think barry
was on to something just for me at 20
added that in 22 right that full cycle
up and down in in a calendar year just
feels
feels rushed and i’m almost concerned
what it would mean for the broader
economy if that were to happen right
yeah i mean it almost needs to be uh a
huge
you know downturn recession yeah like
return for that stuff to play out right
now that quick yeah that’s that’s what
i’m thinking and again i actually every
wednesday the more as you know the
mortgage backers association puts out
their notes and i just happened to look
at him this morning last week 3.33
this week 3.52 that’s almost a 20 basis
points move
and and you know what mike i think when
they put it out on wednesday they’re
talking about last friday oh geez so
that three point that 3.52 is is is
closer to 3.64 and you know it’s it’s
it’s been
red candle after red candle um
it’s that that’s that’s that’s probably
a whole other topic where you know it’s
going to take consumers a while of me
showing a 3625 and going wait wait no no
i just saw on an advertisement 299.
yeah you saw that three or four weeks
ago and that was paying a point
today’s you know rates you’re you’re in
the mid threes on a prior residence
unless you plan on paying points and
then of course you know the 299 is
always available it’s going to be
available it’s just going to cost you
more yeah pre-paid that’s what that’s uh
again the fact that we talk weekly
the fact that people can go back to your
playlist on my channel and see that we
were talking six weeks ago about like it
locket uh the fact that we were talking
about
extracting dead equity at three percent
now if you’re gonna do to it it’s much
more costly i just love the fact that we
do this weekly uh i don’t know about you
but i think rates go higher from here so
again you may 3.52 or 3.62 might feel
high i want to remind you that i’ve done
deals north of seven
um so again 3.62 kind of feels okay i
fact just did an office refi at 3.99 so
yeah pretty crazy yeah i mean i think
too the the thing about it is i hear
very often in my seat talking to
consumers day in and day out nah it’s a
little bit high i think i’ll wait yeah
that hasn’t worked out and and and i
just honestly don’t believe it’s going
to you know as much as i
love barry and it might play out over
two or three years and we might see a
retraction if we go to four and a
quarter and then that stuff plays out
and we retract to three and a half
you’re right right back where you
started today and by the way
we might go up and never come back just
like
anybody who was talking in 2018 and
somebody said i wouldn’t buy now it’s
pretty frothy house prices are high
don’t buy now
we most likely never see 2018 home
prices
ever again right we’re already
40 50 percent above that um in most
markets and even with
a large correction that nobody sees
except for a few youtube channels out
there
we’re not going back
no i’m not going back
yeah so again this
when i when i look at when i
so again barry’s prediction up and then
down inside of a 12 month period to me
the way we get there is frankly a fed
induced accident meaning gdp contraction
maybe not an official recession because
it’s not two quarters in a row uh but
gdp consumers are hit
um
yeah that basically that means that
because i think right now powell is
trying to be paul voker he’s trying to
be tough i’m going to beat inflation
give me my job back for four years right
he told he was trying to get confirmed
yesterday or having his
meeting and um
i don’t think he can go back on that i
don’t i don’t think he can be paul
volcker one week and then go be great
greenspan the next week i think that’s a
very bad look yeah i think he’s already
uh had his his uh mistakes and blunders
and yeah calling stuff transitory
he doesn’t want to keep making mistakes
and making headlines for the wrong
reasons yeah exactly exactly so folks if
you saw last week’s episode thank you
for bringing your questions you helped
with this topic uh if you are looking to
buy get qualified perhaps you’re one of
the few left that could refi i’d
strongly suggest matt the mortgage guy
he’s a part of my uh private facebook
group part of the course he’s even
created free content bonus section for
the course how to read a mortgage
statement mortgage proposal things of
that nature how do you want people to
reach out go to greatmortgagebroker.com
we’ve created a simple form makes it
really easy for you just a few quick
questions who you are where you’re at
how we can get a hold of you how we can
help and we’ll be in touch
very shortly very cool man thanks again
yeah thanks mike