Video Closed Caption:
good morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael’s uber one rental at a
time it is saturday august 27th 8 a.m
pacific
that means we’re about to do 60 minutes
of your questions my answers
i want to thank each and every one of
you for being just a little part of my
saturday uh if you want to say hi or
hello or whatever you’d like i do my
best to
give the people a shout out who choose
to log in and leave a comment
i i will uh i will riff for about 10
minutes
please use that 10 minutes to do
yourself a favor and get your questions
in early
the last
four or five months uh i have not been
able to get to all the questions in our
allotted time
uh so i have turned on super chats if
you do want to jump to the front of line
uh we will use that feature i had a
youtube expert
basically call me nuts for not turning
those on because of course youtube makes
a cut
of every super chat and because youtube
makes money my channel will get more
views
if youtube gets paid it’s a funny
funny game we play in youtube land so
yes folks the only time i talk about
super chats is on our live stream
because again i don’t generally have the
ability to answer all the questions
if you uh if you join and uh i can’t get
to your question the way to jump the
line is a super chat so
there you go
uh so what i’m gonna riff about first
before we get into the comments is
i think my greatest fear
is coming to the housing market
it will be good long term
but it won’t feel good
for you and i to go through it in fact
it will feel very very bad
for a lot of people that watch my
channel
a lot of people that watch my channel
are
somehow compensated
for real estate transactions right we
have the real estate agents mortgage
brokers
uh we probably have some flippers and uh
contractors and
it’s it’s um
it’s going to be bad
i think with what jerome powell said
yesterday and and we have to take him in
his word until he proves otherwise
rates are going up
i think the housing market
muddles along
at six percent 30-year money
i don’t think there’s any muddling
around if we go to seven
if we go to seven percent
that is exactly how we get a 50 crash
in transactions
we have already seen 30
remember what i called and again i don’t
get any credit for this
we called a 30 crash this year and it’s
already here
and i said 50 is possible peak to trough
the federal reserve in jerome powell in
his eight minutes yesterday said michael
we’re going to give you your 50 percent
so again your real estate agent real
estate broker mortgage broker anybody
involved right if you’re that 15 percent
of our national gdp
is gonna get cut by a third
housing is going to pull us into a
recession job losses are going to go up
as jerome powell said
pain
incoming
but now
let’s flip the script
to home buyers and investors
for the longest time or at least for the
last couple of months i said july 20
what the important date it happened
things happened as i prescribed sellers
fo mode fear of missing out through it
on the market wish pricing blah blah
blah blah blah that is almost over
we are already starting to see inventory
roll over
i’m going to hopefully look at an
article that redfin put out
yesterday housing inventory is going
down
we have demand destruction which
everybody sees michael prices have to go
down because demand is falling well no
genius
there’s another equation in housing
called supply
and if supply rolls over because nobody
wants to sell
i’m sorry you just get less transactions
i know it hurts your little brain to
think about but i’m sorry it doesn’t
make me wrong no matter how many times
you yell at me
housing is just sticky it moves a lot
slower than all of you want
and it’s funny to watch all of these
channels who were talking about a
november crash
they’re now suddenly talking about well
maybe it’ll be in 2023. well guys
can you stop talking about a housing
crash
just because we had the once in a
generation crash in in you know 2008 9
10 11 12
doesn’t mean it has to happen again
what if the housing market’s just broken
and we have four or five years of flat
appreciation one plus one minus one
you ever think about that
what happens if we have
three and a half 3.8 3.9 million
transactions instead of seven million
that’s different
but investors
you and me
i am um
frankly starting to get excited
as i’ve said after july 20th we needed
about six to eight weeks for the market
to kind of
flush out the noise
i have heard from arizona that inventory
is already flattening and vegas is
already flattening
so it’s not getting this epic you know
continued
increase
i really do think inventory will be down
in august down in september down in
october down in november down in
december and now this is not some crazy
ramblings of a madman
go back and look at the seasonality
charts
it always does this
oh the people with month to month
talk it’s funny
housing is seasonal
and it is very
entertaining for me to have people
rage and talk about month on month when
they don’t realize that seasonality
happens every year folks
did you guys know that the that the
largest number of transactions in the
biggest homes generally sell between
april and uh august
that the least you know smallest home
selling the winner
do you guys know that it’s a secret it’s
not a secret it happens every year
it’s funny to look at
but yes the market is slowing down
transactions are crashing i think we are
definitely going to get to 50 it’s going
to cause a recession
but where investors come in you and me
there are motivated sellers and they’re
going to be so come october i’m i’m
going to call september 15th what is
that like three weeks away
starting september 15th
certainly by october 1st so i’m giving
myself
a two-week window
we’re going to see the rest of the noise
come out of the market right wish
pricing
not going to sell
cancellations
and then
and then
you and i
know
that a pretty good
number a pretty good percentage of the
people that still have their homes
listed
have to sell
and let me just tell you having done
this for 20 years
buying from somebody who wants to sell
versus buying from somebody who has to
sell
very different
let’s just use october 1st because it
gives me an extra two weeks
come october 1st
if you’re watching my channel
you should not be offering list price
and frankly you might not be offering
within five percent of list price
you don’t need every house
you need one house
you don’t need every house you need one
i saw a comment the other day about
somebody who wrote 13 offers
and is feeling defeated
are you kidding me
really 13. my record is a hundred
you don’t need every deal you need one
deal
so 13
nothing
nothing that’s a that’s a weekend i’ve
written 13 offers in a weekend
you guys this is this this is your
future
you think this is freaking easy
really you think you just you know
play with your little realtor alerts and
zillow alerts and you know just money
rains down on your head this takes work
13 offers and you’re feeling defeated
seriously
come on
come on
come on
but that’s what it’s gonna take right
you’re working in a market where the you
know the average list price is 200 you
know somebody came on at 225 215 197
write it at 180. who cares
they’re probably not going to say yes at
180 but i bet you get a counter
don’t only write it at 180 write it at
180 and go
i want seller to pay 100 of closing
costs and give me a a one point rate buy
down ask for the moon
ask for it
you don’t get what you don’t ask for
buyers it
in a market where we have 50 percent
less transactions
the buyer has the power
i have not operated in a buyer’s market
since 2012.
buyers markets are awesome
but you have to act different
you have to know
you have the power and write better
offers
you will get told no a lot who cares
write another one
write another one
write another one
so again the housing market is broken if
you haven’t heard me say this i’ll give
a quick outline because people keep
asking
the federal reserve broke the housing
market three years ago
they broke the housing market when you
could start getting 30-year mortgages
under four percent
they broke it again at three and a half
and they kept it broken at under three
thirteen percent of mortgages are under
three percent on residential properties
those folks are never moving
fifty percent are three and a half and i
think seventy three percent are sub four
in a world where i now fear mortgage
rates go to seven
the move up buyer is dead
they’re staying put for years
they will buy bunk beds before they buy
a home with an extra bedroom because
again the extra home bedroom cost a
hundred grand
but also their mortgage goes from three
to seven
do the math yourself
in a world where your mortgage goes from
three to seven percent on an extra
hundred grand
folks your payments are up almost three
hundred percent
i am sorry but your kids can live in a
room with bunk beds
it’s just the world we live in the
housing market is broken
and unfortunately in a world like i see
the first time home buyer is hurt the
most
because if the move-up buyer doesn’t
move that means they don’t sell
and again unfortunately if you were
listening to these channels about 2020
and 2021 being bad years
they were the best years ever i did the
math for you
sorry
they just were i don’t
i don’t know why you listened to renters
that tell you that 2020 and 2021 were
bad they weren’t mathematically speaking
they were the most affordable
interest rates matter
today the market’s unaffordable i get it
that doesn’t mean we have a crash
in a world where there’s price interest
rate and wages
and of course time
it’s all of those things that work
together
and until we have wave after wave of
forced sellers
which
i don’t know might come if unemployment
went to ten percent
anybody really see ten percent in the
future i don’t
i have a hard time envisioning seven
percent
that’s a double that’s a double from
where we are today
could it get to 10 sure what do i know
who knows
but anybody here think that the fed
doesn’t whack rates if we get
unemployment of 10
seriously really
and then what happens well we just start
the party over again
pretty crazy
builders
folks builders
they’re just gonna stop
i saw so many channels talk about
builders having 11 months of supply
these people are feeding you an
inaccurate story
again i don’t bring you this data to
discourage you i bring you this data
because it’s information and power
it’s the truth these other channels are
lying to you
yes it is a factual statement to say new
inventory is roughly 11 months it’s 10.9
but did you know
90 of that inventory is in process or
just a lot
yes folks
9.87 months of the 10.9
aren’t completed we don’t have 10.9
months of finished product
that is laughable
people want it so bad
and they know they get views by saying
crash and price and this
there are people who are renters today
who are talking crash in every video who
will end up buying a home because of
their crash videos
i think that is so funny that is so
funny to me they’re gonna make so much
money from crash videos and all of your
clicks
and they’re gonna buy a home it’s
that is that is
america is a wonderful country crash
crash crash oh i’m gonna buy a home
because i did crash videos
i think that is
i think that is so funny that is so
funny
uh so again i think rates are going to
seven percent uh i think that’s that’s
the big change from jerome powell
yesterday uh i think the 30-year money
is going to go to 7 i don’t know that we
stay there long
long being
years i think we’re there quarters
i think the market goes super soft uh
transactions
and then the fed kind of reverses again
i think we have to rip the band-aid off
we have to cause pain we have to get
this behind us we have to wring out
liquidity
you know
if you’ve heard me on my channel for the
last six months i’m like jerome rip rip
the freaking band-aid off let’s go
i think he tried to do it yesterday
our first test will be september 21st
three weeks away does he bang us with 75
or does he wimp out with 50.
we’ll know in three weeks
let’s see
and then lastly inventory is going down
this was my greatest fear again if you
are preaching crash you have to you have
to hope inventory spikes and keeps going
up
redfin put out an article yesterday
which i hope to look at later today for
you
that actually shows inventories down 15
that is wild to think about
and again how can that be how can that
be
it’s because the fed broke housing
you have you not only have record demand
destruction which everybody sees myself
included
what most people are missing
and i saw first and have seen loudest
and get heat for it
is supply is destroyed
there’s nothing coming on the market or
if it does come on the market it comes
on at a stupid price that nobody wants
to buy we have sellers and buyers
sitting down and not agreeing
what does that mean transaction crash
recession
housing depression
yep
all right so let’s go back and say hello
to everyone
hey jeffrey good morning how are you
dion good morning thank you for joining
early
uh ninja i like that name ninja vanish
24 24 7. i like that good morning how
are you nathan good morning better home
rental good morning how are you e.t good
morning sean good morning from the
beautiful ireland today oh that’s cool
on vacation but had to catch q a awesome
jeff let me see sunny
i thought i thought everybody made fun
of me for showing my dogs
i thought i thought if you were a guy
you weren’t supposed to like small dogs
um
they’re sleeping i’m not gonna wake them
up
let’s see jeffrey price is way too
sticky yeah i agree maybe
mid 23 there will be reductions in price
reasonable levels until then negotiate
from seller financing for sensible
payment terms couldn’t agree more
couldn’t agree more
housing is sticky it’s called you can
look it up if you want to look up your
economic term for the weekend look up
price inelasticity
inelastic inelasticity
basically means it’s sticky
uh prices don’t go down fast this is not
the stock market or crypto or
nfts
absolutely
absolutely
in a phrase or a few words describe what
cancelling 20 million student debt will
do to housing
or if you think it will even affect it
what’s your initial gut reaction
so actually i think
so i think there’s a couple of things
there is
uh
it is inflationary i don’t think there’s
any question
i think a lot of that kind of
consumption was already planned in
because again student debt has been
delayed for what 20 months 24 months
it’s now delayed again until january 1st
so i think a lot of that is already in
the works it probably unlocks a little
bit of kind of short term demand
but i think the real
problem slash opportunity
whatever
is we have 20 million americans
whose debt to income ratio is about to
look better
it just is this debt was sitting on your
credit report it was sitting
there if you were going to apply for a
mortgage or an auto loan or whatever
it could cause a no answer
i believe there’s 20 million americans
whose credit profile is about to look
better
and probably much better
so
my gut reaction first is i actually
think auto sales go up first
that’s my gut that’s my first gut
reaction
americans should use this time to save
money but you and i both know that’s not
going to happen in mass
so jeff my first gut says
auto sales go up that’s my first
reaction
will it impact housing
probably at the margin
there will be
some number
i mean let’s just play this out 20
million folks
debt wiped out debt to income looks
better
even if you assume just five percent
shoot let’s assume two and a half
percent no let’s do five five’s better
let’s assume five percent of 20 million
want to buy a home
no actually probably do it this way
probably
um
uh probably of the 20 million probably
20 want to buy a home
so i got a super chat i have to go see
what it is i don’t know how this works
how does oh there it goes we need a
video from your mom i’ll talk about that
in a minute
um
where are we
so so 20 million sorry i got distracted
20 million
let’s say 20 20 want to buy a home so
that’s 4 million
let’s assume half of those folks got a
no answer but now get a yes answer
that’s 2 million
so let’s assume half of those half of
that half
are going to start looking so i think it
creates some more demand i think
somewhere between
250 000 on the really low end which is
like one percent
i mean shoot let’s do one percent that’s
200 000. that’s one percent
is that right
yeah that’s one percent of 20 million
200 000 we have 200 000 more buyers so
that’s demand
they’re going to be demand on first-time
homes they’re not move-up buyers you’re
not a move-up buyer you’re a first-time
homeowner so we have suddenly at a
minimum 200 000 new home buyers
probably on the high end it’s 5 which
would be a million
so again
from where i sit thinking about this for
10 minutes uh we’ve just we’ve just
enabled more demand in the part of the
market where we have
no supply
oh let the federal government screw up
housing even more
i don’t know that’s my short answer jeff
back to dion’s question yes i do plan i
know i made a promise as did my mother
uh when we did 500
cards we would do an interview
she is nervous
to do it
but we agreed that she would come down
and for the holidays
and we’ll do it then so it will happen
it will happen this year
um
i need to be sensitive
she does live quite far away uh but yeah
she’s gonna come to the office i believe
and
have a discussion so when it when it
finally gets scheduled i will reach out
to everybody to say what kind of
questions you want
i do look forward to it
um i think she’s a wonderful wonderful
human being i think she went through
she made my mom made sacrifices
for my sister and i that i would not
have made
she was in a horrible marriage
horrible marriage
for way too long
and
she did that for my sister and i
i wish she didn’t do it
i wish she wouldn’t have done that
sacrifice but i have to tell you i would
not be sitting here today
having this conversation with you if she
did not and that hurts me to say
we would have had to move to michigan
god how old would i have been probably
eight or nine i would be a different
human being
i just would be i would be different not
better not worse different
yeah that’s that hurts to say i wish she
didn’t make it it’s
i
i don’t like to i never like to see her
suffer struggle like that
so
i can’t pay that back
so
can’t pay that back
all right what’s uh what’s matt doing
now
oh i should have her as a guest on the
three amigos that could be fun actually
she likes you two guys
my mom actually put a comment out the
other day i think she said something
like
um
dion’s the so what did she say
dion’s the golden voice matt’s the soul
or something it was pretty cool she said
she says really nice things about you
guys
she likes uh dion matt and um
mike drawn a blank where are we
all right so that was jeff’s question
sean what impact do you think student
loan payments starting up again will do
to lower inflation
it’s just gonna
it’s gonna take money out of the system
it’s gonna probably hurt it’s i mean
think about it i mean if you think about
the average student loan payment which i
don’t know what it is but let’s assume
it’s 250
that was discretionary income for lots
of people for two years
so 250 bucks
out of 20 some odd million folks
it’s probably gonna hurt movie theaters
it’s probably the little extras
it’s it’s gonna hurt i mean without
question it’s gonna hurt it’s gonna pull
demand off the market it just is
ultimate bargains the fed raises 100
basis points every month for at least 10
months to break inflation less
means that the fed is trying to protect
its friends and insolvent central
banking system
um
i get your
um
[Music]
i get what you’re saying
i don’t agree
i certainly don’t agree with ten months
straight
uh we’ll see again
i was very happy with what jerome powell
said yesterday
for the first time
he kicked wall street in the nuts he
just did
there is no chance in hell
the market was ready for what jerome
powell said friday you don’t
the market
was not
ready and that is awesome
awesome
you don’t have a thousand point down day
if you are ready for jerome powell to
kick you in the nuts it hurt
it’s shocked it was awesome
do it again
i think we have a test on the 21st it’s
really simple
i think the data going into the 21st
will give everybody and their brother a
chance for to scream peak inflation and
if jerome powell comes over the top with
the right cross and says here’s 75 thank
you very much
i hope he does
let’s see
let’s see
starting to hear more and more other
experts calling transaction crash not
price crash you nailed it nice shirt by
the way thank you
yeah i
i get a lot of heat because i do think a
crash in transaction is important i
think a transaction crash actually pulls
the entire us economy into a recession i
think that is important
uh just because i don’t believe there’s
this epic price crash coming i get lots
of hate
i don’t think it’s warranted
uh you people disagree with me that’s
cool but man i get some vicious hate
i’ve blocked more people over price
crash
for just being nasty
so
i don’t know it’s unfortunate
everybody wants to because they’ve been
listening to these crash channels for
two years they’re hoping they didn’t
miss the boat well guess what 2020 and
2021 were the best two years i don’t
know what to tell you yeah so pretty
cool it’s it’s fun to be right it’s it
you know it’s really fun it’s fun to be
right in so early
so yeah it’s pretty cool
uh dividend dave morning hey how you
doing buddy uh jc good morning this uh
as well the housing correction
intensifies blackstone to stop buying
homes in 38 regional housing markets
yeah i read that article
uh one of the one of the markets by the
way boise and fresno california and
memphis tennessee i remember
from memory
what’s interesting is again a lot of
people will take that message and spin
it negatively
here’s the deal what did i tell you like
three days before we got the blackstone
message i showed you that fresno
california was unaffordable
it was a 31
getting really close to my dangerous 25.
when when housing gets that low you slow
down and that’s what blackstone did
baxton blackstone didn’t sell
they’re not selling all their inventory
in fresno in boise in memphis they’re
like no it’s just too expensive
we’re gonna keep what we have we’re
going to keep the cash flow we’re going
to keep going
and oh by the way did you know
that that blackstone operates in over 80
markets
so they’re still buying rentals
that make good cash flow or yield or
rock return on capital or cash on cash
they’re just not buying in 38 markets
that are unaffordable
good for them
they’re not selling
everybody’s like what happens when these
guys sell
guys they bought these for cash flow
they’re never selling their debt
structure once they wrap this into a
reit they’re never going to sell they’ll
trade them to other hedge funds and big
blankets they’re not going to sell them
one off to you and me once these wall
street firms take a property off the
market it’s not coming back
it’s not coming back at least not for
decades
stephen how many days on market do you
think it takes for wish pricing to pull
their listing that is a great question
i think it’s different by different
markets
um i’m hearing again this is from agents
i think you have to know your buy box
but i have heard from hot markets uh 10
days as soon as 10 days
i’ve heard from multiple agents
they took a listing that they knew was
wish pricing they told it was wish
pricing the guy said i wanted to try it
no matter what so they threw it on 10
days later they canceled the contract
so can be as short as 10 days
what i’m hearing from others is they’ll
put it on and they’ll have their first
price drop at 14 days
and then they’ll take it off the market
at 30 days
so
i called july 20th i think by september
15th october 1st at the latest we’re
gonna know where we are i think a lot of
wish pricing and cancellations and
expireds will happen by october 1st
did you get my instagram message i got
my first deal with help and wanted to
connect i will look
i didn’t look at instagram this morning
because i was getting ready for the
daily financial news but let me see
uh let’s see
i don’t know david and dave
dividend was that dividend dave yeah
dividend dave i don’t see a message from
dividend dave
can you send me in again
i see one from greg
but no dave could you send me in again
please
i don’t see anything in my
hidden folder either so dave can you
send it to me again i just need your
address i will send you a card and give
you a shout out on the daily financial
news
oh when uh when you’re talking about
seven percent rates are you referring to
owner awk or investment
um that’s a great question i need to i
sometimes
i sometimes get rolling and
i just assume all of you can read my
mind i apologize for that so when i talk
about rates like that i’m always talking
owner ock
i always talk the lowest of the low
knowing that investor loans are a point
higher
so my fear now with the fed powell doing
his stick the fed funds going north of
four ten-year going north to five and a
half
the third year will be high sixes
maybe low sevens
that was owner rock that’s that’s why
the housing market is so broken
uh i’m curious what would it take for
banks to all of a sudden close heloc’s
uh i would tell you a doubling of
unemployment
i don’t even think it takes a double so
we’re at three and a half percent alyssa
hopefully i said that right today
i think if i think of unemployment
spiked like if we had unemployment go
from three and a half to five and a half
and like a four-month window
that would be enough to freak banks out
banks will get very nervous
if um unemployment that’s what i would
be watching banks are nervous
banks are a nervous
and they when they get nervous
helocs are the first helox could go
in an afternoon
i’ve i’ve worked at i’ve sold to banks
i’ve been at these meetings i’ve watched
them make uh portfolio decisions i’ve
sat there quietly as an observer i’ve
been there
and
seriously in a 90-minute
board meeting they could decide to close
all helocs i’ve seen them do it
so i would watch unemployment
sean that is an amazing question
so this is something that dawned on me
this morning when i was talking did my
live stream about um the fed
so let’s just play this out because i
think sean breaks up an amazing thing we
have to ask about the fed funds rate are
going up
without question
the question is what happens to the
10-year
because we have to remember that the fed
funds going up
has
ramifications
one of the ramifications is the dollar
gets stronger it just does
because the dollar gets stronger
emerging markets are
if they have emerging markets have debt
in dollars they’re screwed
they are screwed
screwed
we’re going to see debt
debt consolidation debt delay it’s going
to be ugh you think sri lanka is bad it
is it could get way worse in way way
more emerging markets it’s
not fun to think about
but then we have
like
tier one countries who are in a
recession folks europe’s in a recession
folks i think china is in a recession
i think much of asia could be in a
recession
we have their central banks raising
rates sure but not
enough
i think you’re right sean i think one of
the un unexpected
surprises benefits whatever you want to
call it
is you were you were
you are going to see
not only foreign countries
but you’re going to see large
institutions like um
the wealth fund of netherlands i think
is like one of the second or third
largest out there
they will start buying treasuries you
get the treasury to four percent
i think it’s like 3.1 yesterday
the 10-year treasury could be at four
before the end of the year
you are going to get
gargantuan purchases of the 10-year
which is going to help the fed sell by
the way they’re going to lower their
balance sheet
they’re just going to sell right into
that
so yeah i don’t i think i think what’s
gonna happen
is the margin
right if you take the federal funds rate
today at two and a quarter in the ten
year let’s call it 3.1 the margin is 85
basis points
i think it is possible that that
collapses or compresses i don’t ever
think it goes to zero i certainly don’t
think it inverts
uh but you could see that compress
and the dollar is going to get stronger
it’s just it’s yeah foreign countries
specifically emerging markets with
dollar denominated debt
oh that’s going to hurt
nick you’re very welcome
yep yeah build your buy box if the
numbers don’t work they don’t work i
mean my market of fresno california is
unaffordable i talked about that doesn’t
mean i’m gonna stop i’m gonna try to get
some seller financing to goose the yield
but i will likely build right build an
adu what do you do when the market’s
unaffordable you build
and if you’re building an adu and a
market that’s slowing down
contractors should be more available so
there’s always something to do
seth good morning everyone how are you
uh zuberd always hypes me up appreciate
that i try
oh it’s funny uh i ibuyers oh i have a
note where did i i got that this morning
one sec this was an amazing story
where did i find that was that an email
so i’m gonna go from memory
so one of the cards that i sent out
today on the daily financial news they
bought a property in
somewhere in arizona
i want to say summerlin but that’s the
that’s vegas
anyway somewhere in phoenix
here’s the story from my memory
open door buys the house for 502.
open door does light cleaning and tries
to sell it at 562.
they try to make 60 grand
it stays on the market for 100 days
my buyer who follows one rental at a
time writes an aggressive offer at 4 20.
4
20.
i think they agree from memory at like
430 plus 2
seller credits
listen to that again
open door overpays and buys it at 502.
opendoor tries to sell it at 562.
they keep it on the market for 100 days
a one rental at a time fan student
writes a stupid low offer at 4 20.
they end up buying it at 4 30 with two
points
of closer cost credit
you bet your ass you can buy from i
buyers i buyers
are essentially big piggy banks who are
publicly traded who are reserved for
losses
folks if your buy box has eye buyers in
it
repeat what my student did
track them days on market matters there
is zero chance
zero chance
open door list set at 562 you write a
420 offer on day one they will laugh you
out of the building
there is zero chance
uh open door lists listed at 562 they
take your offer at 4 20 after 30 days
but a hundred days
we know what happened
420 goes to 430 plus two points of
credit
if you are not taking advantage of eye
buyers
you are not paying attention
you bet your ass i buyers have
opportunity again days on market matter
i keep screaming
stop looking at first day listings
i originally went to 15 when business
insider interviewed me i’m now at 30.
you don’t need every deal you just need
one
use time ask for credits ask for closing
costs write
stupid offers
writing a 420 on a 560 offer is stupid
and they got it because it was a hundred
days old
i think that is an awesome story
seth southern california housing market
is slowly coming down
i prefer higher interest rates versus
higher home prices okay i’ve seen the
meme
uh
marry the price date the rate uh date
the rate or interest rate i’ve seen it
do the math
do the math
every vacant lots are merely a poured
concrete foundation costs money true
hey paul v good morning how are you
good morning zuber and everyone do you
think
there’s an outside shot for an eight
handle or maybe a peak of seven five
um
again if we’re talking owner ock 30-year
you know kind of best rates best credit
20 down
i don’t know i mean in eight
i mean
it’s not out of the question
do i think it’s likely
not with what i see today
not with what i see today
could i see seven and a half
yeah
i think it’s going to be seven seven
between seven and seven and a quarter i
just think there’s a net we’ve already
seen what happens when rates got to six
right rates got to they went to 6.03
for like two weeks
man can you imagine another point higher
oh
i don’t know yeah i mean it’s possible
yeah
selling unfinished slots to get out of
positions are painful yep
yeah i really do um if you heard my
daily financial news yesterday kind of
pre-powell speech
i
i was begging for 75 but thought he
would give us 50.
i re i flipped that
yesterday afternoon i now think you’re
right i think he’s like guys
i think again i think he walked up to mr
stock market kicked him in the nuts you
saw a thousand points the market wasn’t
ready so yeah i think he’s giving him
- we’re going to see we’re going to
see september 21st
15
down compared to what i don’t know what
that means
the fed broke housing by intent and
design not by accident
um
i don’t really think it matters
yeah i don’t
i don’t think that way i don’t think
that way it it happened i i have to deal
with it whether or not they did it on
purpose
or whether or not it was a happy
accident i don’t think matters at least
it doesn’t matter to me it happened so i
have to deal with it
when is the best time to start searching
homes to buy yesterday
it takes you a long time to learn your
buy box
what are you just going to sit down and
wait for some youtube channel to ring a
bell
the best time to start looking and
learning is yesterday
investor wealth good morning nicholas
good morning
uh cap afro-capitalist good morning
okay james
as far as my buy box i’m using nine
percent rates as my mortgage okay two to
three percent over current rates as long
as it cash flows there
i think that’s wise you know again plan
for the worst
planning for the worst case and dealing
with what happens is a good move i like
it
uh except on sunday 9 or 10 a.m when the
day is starting i look at houses that
are listed more than 30 days totally
agree totally agree
you got to look every day you got to
look every day this is a it’s
you just got to practice practice
practice
david good morning how are you
should i start looking by a home in
orlando in february or wait later you
should start looking yesterday
what part of yesterday yesterday
just because you look doesn’t mean
you’re writing an offer it means you’re
looking and learning
why wait what’s magic about february
what’s magic about november what’s magic
start looking yesterday learn your buy
box yesterday
good morning transactions were up in my
mark market in july report what should i
be doing i make offers close to list and
not getting it i’m finding average is
around five to six and i’m trying for
eight
keep doing what you’re doing i have
obviously no idea what market you’re in
there’s lots of markets that are still
hot i.e blackstone is still buying in 42
of the 580 markets so
maybe you’re in a hot market just keep
doing what you’re doing you’re heading
into a slower season summer is the
hottest and hardest time
keep going just keep keep doing you
again i’ve written 100 offers
my record is 100 offers before getting a
deal so just keep going
it’s practice repetition keep going you
got this
um
yeah you need to make a hundred offers
get one counter yeah
again go back to my example how many of
you watching this
would not have the balls
just be honest with yourself you see a
property listed for 560 or 562
and the numbers work for you at 4 20.
how many of you do not write that offer
i’m going to guess most of you
one of my students who do the work know
their numbers wrote that damn offer
and got a deal at 430 with 8 8 600 in
seller credits
do
the
work
zuber do you think now is the bottom for
the housing price if not yet what month
do you think it will bottom
uh i think housing is seasonal
uh i think winter months are always
lower
uh so it would not shock me if month on
month numbers or something lower but
again these these national averages
folks
should mean nothing to you they only
mean something to me as an economist and
somebody who’s looked at them every
month for 30 years
i will say it again
the most important metric everyone
watching me should follow is day to day
day
to
day
in your buy box next i look at year on
year
because otherwise i let seasonality
screw with my brain
and then lastly is month on month
housing is seasonal
inventory will roll over into the winter
prices will statistically go lower
because the inventory mix changes
all the big homes sell in the summer
because that’s when families move
it happens every year it’s not magical
every year pricing goes down in the
winter
not in the summer
i don’t know why people don’t get this
so
what i think about a national median
price low should mean absolutely nothing
do the work in your buy box
every single day
are prices going to come down 20 to 30
on average nationally over the next two
to three years
um
[Music]
why would they do that
what is happening that would cause that
i don’t understand
i mean maybe i mean mike i have no idea
there’s
i have no idea
i certainly don’t think so
i think people calling for a 30 crash
are foolish
but hey who knows maybe
maybe world war iii happens
maybe
mortgages are outlawed
maybe the government says you can only
own one home and if you own more than
one you have to sell who knows
some crazy black swan event can happen
and real estate could go to zero i don’t
know
but uh that is not my base case
i think waiting for a 30 crash
is um
a 30 national crash
national crash
is uh you might be waiting a long time
could vegas go 30 percent because it got
out of whack sure
could phoenix maybe
could boise sure
the nation
barring some
crazy
black swan events i don’t know i mean
nobody nobody has been able to tell me
a story
that i can believe in i have been doing
this for 20 years looked every day i’ve
invested through the last crash i
positioned myself to take advantage of
the last crash i got out at the peak so
i saw it coming
you don’t have four sellers you don’t
have way before sellers you don’t have
50 percent of loans that are arms you
don’t have 28 loans that are 2 and 28.
there’s just no recipe for seller after
seller after seller after seller i just
don’t see it
could it happen sure what do i know
yep do the work yep
the market was ready but i was re the
market was ready but i was ready short i
think you’re saying you were short the
market if you were congrats
congrats
wow that’s nice running rentals quick
wow the yeah that’s don bev yeah that’s
um
again i don’t think i would be again
just me talking to myself here i don’t
think i would be too nervous about them
closing uh an equity line or a heloc
uh unless unemployment started going the
other way
again banks are skittish
banks will close heloc’s in a minute i
mean quickly like i talked about earlier
but there has to be you you you can see
it coming
you can see it coming watch unemployment
watch unemployment
like if if like unemployment jumped from
three and a half to five percent in like
three months
uh yeah i might i might i might uh i
might tap my heloc
but i mean if you know we’re going to
get a jobs number on friday september
2nd
it’s probably going to be a pretty good
number so
yeah
yeah i understand i get it
lyric so should i pull the trigger on
the house and read finance in five to
ten years dude i have no idea
i don’t know your buy box i don’t your
market i don’t know your plan i don’t
know the homeowner i don’t know renner
no idea
i can tell you this much i am buying
every great deal i can
i say great on purpose i don’t buy
average i don’t even buy good deals
i’m buying every great deal i can as are
all my followers so lyric is it a great
deal or is it just a
if it’s just a
then no of course not
my team people that follow me are
writing 420 offers on 562 lists and
getting great deals
it is always a great day to get a great
deal you need to tell me is it a great
deal i don’t know your buy box i haven’t
looked at it i never will look at it i’m
not doing the work for you
no idea
well at least the upper middle class and
upper class can take cheaper vacations
this winter with a strong dollar yeah
dude if you ever want to go to europe
go
thoughts on forcing people back to
office work to cut employees instead of
announcing layoffs as a start
uh i think companies are going to do
what companies do
and they always will they’re going to do
what they’re going to do
if you don’t want to work there don’t
work there
awesome bought it for 405 2 of seller
credit that’s awesome
i just love that
started at 190 we are talking to the
seller financing a duplex at 1 30 after
80 days brett that is exactly a great
deal again i can guess 190
get it at 130 seller financing 80 days
on market folks
folks pay attention
pay attention days on market matter
i am only fishing at 30 days or more
i don’t care if it’s first day listing
don’t care
i want to find motivated sellers they’re
out there
open door was a motivated seller at 100
days
brett has an example of a seller being
motivated at 80 days
do
the
work
do the work all right folks i’m going to
stop it right there sorry again i can’t
get to all the questions i’m going to
shut this down because i owe my students
a 30 minute live in our private facebook
group so i’m going to check out drink
some water i will talk to you there soon
bye bye
you