Housing Market Disaster Started, The Fed Broke Housing Market, Rates to 7% and Inventory DOWN. WHAT?

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good morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael’s uber one rental at a

time it is saturday august 27th 8 a.m

pacific

that means we’re about to do 60 minutes

of your questions my answers

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you for being just a little part of my

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i i will uh i will riff for about 10

minutes

please use that 10 minutes to do

yourself a favor and get your questions

in early

the last

four or five months uh i have not been

able to get to all the questions in our

allotted time

uh so i have turned on super chats if

you do want to jump to the front of line

uh we will use that feature i had a

youtube expert

basically call me nuts for not turning

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a cut

of every super chat and because youtube

makes money my channel will get more

views

if youtube gets paid it’s a funny

funny game we play in youtube land so

yes folks the only time i talk about

super chats is on our live stream

because again i don’t generally have the

ability to answer all the questions

if you uh if you join and uh i can’t get

to your question the way to jump the

line is a super chat so

there you go

uh so what i’m gonna riff about first

before we get into the comments is

i think my greatest fear

is coming to the housing market

it will be good long term

but it won’t feel good

for you and i to go through it in fact

it will feel very very bad

for a lot of people that watch my

channel

a lot of people that watch my channel

are

somehow compensated

for real estate transactions right we

have the real estate agents mortgage

brokers

uh we probably have some flippers and uh

contractors and

it’s it’s um

it’s going to be bad

i think with what jerome powell said

yesterday and and we have to take him in

his word until he proves otherwise

rates are going up

i think the housing market

muddles along

at six percent 30-year money

i don’t think there’s any muddling

around if we go to seven

if we go to seven percent

that is exactly how we get a 50 crash

in transactions

we have already seen 30

remember what i called and again i don’t

get any credit for this

we called a 30 crash this year and it’s

already here

and i said 50 is possible peak to trough

the federal reserve in jerome powell in

his eight minutes yesterday said michael

we’re going to give you your 50 percent

so again your real estate agent real

estate broker mortgage broker anybody

involved right if you’re that 15 percent

of our national gdp

is gonna get cut by a third

housing is going to pull us into a

recession job losses are going to go up

as jerome powell said

pain

incoming

but now

let’s flip the script

to home buyers and investors

for the longest time or at least for the

last couple of months i said july 20

what the important date it happened

things happened as i prescribed sellers

fo mode fear of missing out through it

on the market wish pricing blah blah

blah blah blah that is almost over

we are already starting to see inventory

roll over

i’m going to hopefully look at an

article that redfin put out

yesterday housing inventory is going

down

we have demand destruction which

everybody sees michael prices have to go

down because demand is falling well no

genius

there’s another equation in housing

called supply

and if supply rolls over because nobody

wants to sell

i’m sorry you just get less transactions

i know it hurts your little brain to

think about but i’m sorry it doesn’t

make me wrong no matter how many times

you yell at me

housing is just sticky it moves a lot

slower than all of you want

and it’s funny to watch all of these

channels who were talking about a

november crash

they’re now suddenly talking about well

maybe it’ll be in 2023. well guys

can you stop talking about a housing

crash

just because we had the once in a

generation crash in in you know 2008 9

10 11 12

doesn’t mean it has to happen again

what if the housing market’s just broken

and we have four or five years of flat

appreciation one plus one minus one

you ever think about that

what happens if we have

three and a half 3.8 3.9 million

transactions instead of seven million

that’s different

but investors

you and me

i am um

frankly starting to get excited

as i’ve said after july 20th we needed

about six to eight weeks for the market

to kind of

flush out the noise

i have heard from arizona that inventory

is already flattening and vegas is

already flattening

so it’s not getting this epic you know

continued

increase

i really do think inventory will be down

in august down in september down in

october down in november down in

december and now this is not some crazy

ramblings of a madman

go back and look at the seasonality

charts

it always does this

oh the people with month to month

talk it’s funny

housing is seasonal

and it is very

entertaining for me to have people

rage and talk about month on month when

they don’t realize that seasonality

happens every year folks

did you guys know that the that the

largest number of transactions in the

biggest homes generally sell between

april and uh august

that the least you know smallest home

selling the winner

do you guys know that it’s a secret it’s

not a secret it happens every year

it’s funny to look at

but yes the market is slowing down

transactions are crashing i think we are

definitely going to get to 50 it’s going

to cause a recession

but where investors come in you and me

there are motivated sellers and they’re

going to be so come october i’m i’m

going to call september 15th what is

that like three weeks away

starting september 15th

certainly by october 1st so i’m giving

myself

a two-week window

we’re going to see the rest of the noise

come out of the market right wish

pricing

not going to sell

cancellations

and then

and then

you and i

know

that a pretty good

number a pretty good percentage of the

people that still have their homes

listed

have to sell

and let me just tell you having done

this for 20 years

buying from somebody who wants to sell

versus buying from somebody who has to

sell

very different

let’s just use october 1st because it

gives me an extra two weeks

come october 1st

if you’re watching my channel

you should not be offering list price

and frankly you might not be offering

within five percent of list price

you don’t need every house

you need one house

you don’t need every house you need one

i saw a comment the other day about

somebody who wrote 13 offers

and is feeling defeated

are you kidding me

really 13. my record is a hundred

you don’t need every deal you need one

deal

so 13

nothing

nothing that’s a that’s a weekend i’ve

written 13 offers in a weekend

you guys this is this this is your

future

you think this is freaking easy

really you think you just you know

play with your little realtor alerts and

zillow alerts and you know just money

rains down on your head this takes work

13 offers and you’re feeling defeated

seriously

come on

come on

come on

but that’s what it’s gonna take right

you’re working in a market where the you

know the average list price is 200 you

know somebody came on at 225 215 197

write it at 180. who cares

they’re probably not going to say yes at

180 but i bet you get a counter

don’t only write it at 180 write it at

180 and go

i want seller to pay 100 of closing

costs and give me a a one point rate buy

down ask for the moon

ask for it

you don’t get what you don’t ask for

buyers it

in a market where we have 50 percent

less transactions

the buyer has the power

i have not operated in a buyer’s market

since 2012.

buyers markets are awesome

but you have to act different

you have to know

you have the power and write better

offers

you will get told no a lot who cares

write another one

write another one

write another one

so again the housing market is broken if

you haven’t heard me say this i’ll give

a quick outline because people keep

asking

the federal reserve broke the housing

market three years ago

they broke the housing market when you

could start getting 30-year mortgages

under four percent

they broke it again at three and a half

and they kept it broken at under three

thirteen percent of mortgages are under

three percent on residential properties

those folks are never moving

fifty percent are three and a half and i

think seventy three percent are sub four

in a world where i now fear mortgage

rates go to seven

the move up buyer is dead

they’re staying put for years

they will buy bunk beds before they buy

a home with an extra bedroom because

again the extra home bedroom cost a

hundred grand

but also their mortgage goes from three

to seven

do the math yourself

in a world where your mortgage goes from

three to seven percent on an extra

hundred grand

folks your payments are up almost three

hundred percent

i am sorry but your kids can live in a

room with bunk beds

it’s just the world we live in the

housing market is broken

and unfortunately in a world like i see

the first time home buyer is hurt the

most

because if the move-up buyer doesn’t

move that means they don’t sell

and again unfortunately if you were

listening to these channels about 2020

and 2021 being bad years

they were the best years ever i did the

math for you

sorry

they just were i don’t

i don’t know why you listened to renters

that tell you that 2020 and 2021 were

bad they weren’t mathematically speaking

they were the most affordable

interest rates matter

today the market’s unaffordable i get it

that doesn’t mean we have a crash

in a world where there’s price interest

rate and wages

and of course time

it’s all of those things that work

together

and until we have wave after wave of

forced sellers

which

i don’t know might come if unemployment

went to ten percent

anybody really see ten percent in the

future i don’t

i have a hard time envisioning seven

percent

that’s a double that’s a double from

where we are today

could it get to 10 sure what do i know

who knows

but anybody here think that the fed

doesn’t whack rates if we get

unemployment of 10

seriously really

and then what happens well we just start

the party over again

pretty crazy

builders

folks builders

they’re just gonna stop

i saw so many channels talk about

builders having 11 months of supply

these people are feeding you an

inaccurate story

again i don’t bring you this data to

discourage you i bring you this data

because it’s information and power

it’s the truth these other channels are

lying to you

yes it is a factual statement to say new

inventory is roughly 11 months it’s 10.9

but did you know

90 of that inventory is in process or

just a lot

yes folks

9.87 months of the 10.9

aren’t completed we don’t have 10.9

months of finished product

that is laughable

people want it so bad

and they know they get views by saying

crash and price and this

there are people who are renters today

who are talking crash in every video who

will end up buying a home because of

their crash videos

i think that is so funny that is so

funny to me they’re gonna make so much

money from crash videos and all of your

clicks

and they’re gonna buy a home it’s

that is that is

america is a wonderful country crash

crash crash oh i’m gonna buy a home

because i did crash videos

i think that is

i think that is so funny that is so

funny

uh so again i think rates are going to

seven percent uh i think that’s that’s

the big change from jerome powell

yesterday uh i think the 30-year money

is going to go to 7 i don’t know that we

stay there long

long being

years i think we’re there quarters

i think the market goes super soft uh

transactions

and then the fed kind of reverses again

i think we have to rip the band-aid off

we have to cause pain we have to get

this behind us we have to wring out

liquidity

you know

if you’ve heard me on my channel for the

last six months i’m like jerome rip rip

the freaking band-aid off let’s go

i think he tried to do it yesterday

our first test will be september 21st

three weeks away does he bang us with 75

or does he wimp out with 50.

we’ll know in three weeks

let’s see

and then lastly inventory is going down

this was my greatest fear again if you

are preaching crash you have to you have

to hope inventory spikes and keeps going

up

redfin put out an article yesterday

which i hope to look at later today for

you

that actually shows inventories down 15

that is wild to think about

and again how can that be how can that

be

it’s because the fed broke housing

you have you not only have record demand

destruction which everybody sees myself

included

what most people are missing

and i saw first and have seen loudest

and get heat for it

is supply is destroyed

there’s nothing coming on the market or

if it does come on the market it comes

on at a stupid price that nobody wants

to buy we have sellers and buyers

sitting down and not agreeing

what does that mean transaction crash

recession

housing depression

yep

all right so let’s go back and say hello

to everyone

hey jeffrey good morning how are you

dion good morning thank you for joining

early

uh ninja i like that name ninja vanish

24 24 7. i like that good morning how

are you nathan good morning better home

rental good morning how are you e.t good

morning sean good morning from the

beautiful ireland today oh that’s cool

on vacation but had to catch q a awesome

jeff let me see sunny

i thought i thought everybody made fun

of me for showing my dogs

i thought i thought if you were a guy

you weren’t supposed to like small dogs

um

they’re sleeping i’m not gonna wake them

up

let’s see jeffrey price is way too

sticky yeah i agree maybe

mid 23 there will be reductions in price

reasonable levels until then negotiate

from seller financing for sensible

payment terms couldn’t agree more

couldn’t agree more

housing is sticky it’s called you can

look it up if you want to look up your

economic term for the weekend look up

price inelasticity

inelastic inelasticity

basically means it’s sticky

uh prices don’t go down fast this is not

the stock market or crypto or

nfts

absolutely

absolutely

in a phrase or a few words describe what

cancelling 20 million student debt will

do to housing

or if you think it will even affect it

what’s your initial gut reaction

so actually i think

so i think there’s a couple of things

there is

uh

it is inflationary i don’t think there’s

any question

i think a lot of that kind of

consumption was already planned in

because again student debt has been

delayed for what 20 months 24 months

it’s now delayed again until january 1st

so i think a lot of that is already in

the works it probably unlocks a little

bit of kind of short term demand

but i think the real

problem slash opportunity

whatever

is we have 20 million americans

whose debt to income ratio is about to

look better

it just is this debt was sitting on your

credit report it was sitting

there if you were going to apply for a

mortgage or an auto loan or whatever

it could cause a no answer

i believe there’s 20 million americans

whose credit profile is about to look

better

and probably much better

so

my gut reaction first is i actually

think auto sales go up first

that’s my gut that’s my first gut

reaction

americans should use this time to save

money but you and i both know that’s not

going to happen in mass

so jeff my first gut says

auto sales go up that’s my first

reaction

will it impact housing

probably at the margin

there will be

some number

i mean let’s just play this out 20

million folks

debt wiped out debt to income looks

better

even if you assume just five percent

shoot let’s assume two and a half

percent no let’s do five five’s better

let’s assume five percent of 20 million

want to buy a home

no actually probably do it this way

probably

um

uh probably of the 20 million probably

20 want to buy a home

so i got a super chat i have to go see

what it is i don’t know how this works

how does oh there it goes we need a

video from your mom i’ll talk about that

in a minute

um

where are we

so so 20 million sorry i got distracted

20 million

let’s say 20 20 want to buy a home so

that’s 4 million

let’s assume half of those folks got a

no answer but now get a yes answer

that’s 2 million

so let’s assume half of those half of

that half

are going to start looking so i think it

creates some more demand i think

somewhere between

250 000 on the really low end which is

like one percent

i mean shoot let’s do one percent that’s

200 000. that’s one percent

is that right

yeah that’s one percent of 20 million

200 000 we have 200 000 more buyers so

that’s demand

they’re going to be demand on first-time

homes they’re not move-up buyers you’re

not a move-up buyer you’re a first-time

homeowner so we have suddenly at a

minimum 200 000 new home buyers

probably on the high end it’s 5 which

would be a million

so again

from where i sit thinking about this for

10 minutes uh we’ve just we’ve just

enabled more demand in the part of the

market where we have

no supply

oh let the federal government screw up

housing even more

i don’t know that’s my short answer jeff

back to dion’s question yes i do plan i

know i made a promise as did my mother

uh when we did 500

cards we would do an interview

she is nervous

to do it

but we agreed that she would come down

and for the holidays

and we’ll do it then so it will happen

it will happen this year

um

i need to be sensitive

she does live quite far away uh but yeah

she’s gonna come to the office i believe

and

have a discussion so when it when it

finally gets scheduled i will reach out

to everybody to say what kind of

questions you want

i do look forward to it

um i think she’s a wonderful wonderful

human being i think she went through

she made my mom made sacrifices

for my sister and i that i would not

have made

she was in a horrible marriage

horrible marriage

for way too long

and

she did that for my sister and i

i wish she didn’t do it

i wish she wouldn’t have done that

sacrifice but i have to tell you i would

not be sitting here today

having this conversation with you if she

did not and that hurts me to say

we would have had to move to michigan

god how old would i have been probably

eight or nine i would be a different

human being

i just would be i would be different not

better not worse different

yeah that’s that hurts to say i wish she

didn’t make it it’s

i

i don’t like to i never like to see her

suffer struggle like that

so

i can’t pay that back

so

can’t pay that back

all right what’s uh what’s matt doing

now

oh i should have her as a guest on the

three amigos that could be fun actually

she likes you two guys

my mom actually put a comment out the

other day i think she said something

like

um

dion’s the so what did she say

dion’s the golden voice matt’s the soul

or something it was pretty cool she said

she says really nice things about you

guys

she likes uh dion matt and um

mike drawn a blank where are we

all right so that was jeff’s question

sean what impact do you think student

loan payments starting up again will do

to lower inflation

it’s just gonna

it’s gonna take money out of the system

it’s gonna probably hurt it’s i mean

think about it i mean if you think about

the average student loan payment which i

don’t know what it is but let’s assume

it’s 250

that was discretionary income for lots

of people for two years

so 250 bucks

out of 20 some odd million folks

it’s probably gonna hurt movie theaters

it’s probably the little extras

it’s it’s gonna hurt i mean without

question it’s gonna hurt it’s gonna pull

demand off the market it just is

ultimate bargains the fed raises 100

basis points every month for at least 10

months to break inflation less

means that the fed is trying to protect

its friends and insolvent central

banking system

um

i get your

um

[Music]

i get what you’re saying

i don’t agree

i certainly don’t agree with ten months

straight

uh we’ll see again

i was very happy with what jerome powell

said yesterday

for the first time

he kicked wall street in the nuts he

just did

there is no chance in hell

the market was ready for what jerome

powell said friday you don’t

the market

was not

ready and that is awesome

awesome

you don’t have a thousand point down day

if you are ready for jerome powell to

kick you in the nuts it hurt

it’s shocked it was awesome

do it again

i think we have a test on the 21st it’s

really simple

i think the data going into the 21st

will give everybody and their brother a

chance for to scream peak inflation and

if jerome powell comes over the top with

the right cross and says here’s 75 thank

you very much

i hope he does

let’s see

let’s see

starting to hear more and more other

experts calling transaction crash not

price crash you nailed it nice shirt by

the way thank you

yeah i

i get a lot of heat because i do think a

crash in transaction is important i

think a transaction crash actually pulls

the entire us economy into a recession i

think that is important

uh just because i don’t believe there’s

this epic price crash coming i get lots

of hate

i don’t think it’s warranted

uh you people disagree with me that’s

cool but man i get some vicious hate

i’ve blocked more people over price

crash

for just being nasty

so

i don’t know it’s unfortunate

everybody wants to because they’ve been

listening to these crash channels for

two years they’re hoping they didn’t

miss the boat well guess what 2020 and

2021 were the best two years i don’t

know what to tell you yeah so pretty

cool it’s it’s fun to be right it’s it

you know it’s really fun it’s fun to be

right in so early

so yeah it’s pretty cool

uh dividend dave morning hey how you

doing buddy uh jc good morning this uh

as well the housing correction

intensifies blackstone to stop buying

homes in 38 regional housing markets

yeah i read that article

uh one of the one of the markets by the

way boise and fresno california and

memphis tennessee i remember

from memory

what’s interesting is again a lot of

people will take that message and spin

it negatively

here’s the deal what did i tell you like

three days before we got the blackstone

message i showed you that fresno

california was unaffordable

it was a 31

getting really close to my dangerous 25.

when when housing gets that low you slow

down and that’s what blackstone did

baxton blackstone didn’t sell

they’re not selling all their inventory

in fresno in boise in memphis they’re

like no it’s just too expensive

we’re gonna keep what we have we’re

going to keep the cash flow we’re going

to keep going

and oh by the way did you know

that that blackstone operates in over 80

markets

so they’re still buying rentals

that make good cash flow or yield or

rock return on capital or cash on cash

they’re just not buying in 38 markets

that are unaffordable

good for them

they’re not selling

everybody’s like what happens when these

guys sell

guys they bought these for cash flow

they’re never selling their debt

structure once they wrap this into a

reit they’re never going to sell they’ll

trade them to other hedge funds and big

blankets they’re not going to sell them

one off to you and me once these wall

street firms take a property off the

market it’s not coming back

it’s not coming back at least not for

decades

stephen how many days on market do you

think it takes for wish pricing to pull

their listing that is a great question

i think it’s different by different

markets

um i’m hearing again this is from agents

i think you have to know your buy box

but i have heard from hot markets uh 10

days as soon as 10 days

i’ve heard from multiple agents

they took a listing that they knew was

wish pricing they told it was wish

pricing the guy said i wanted to try it

no matter what so they threw it on 10

days later they canceled the contract

so can be as short as 10 days

what i’m hearing from others is they’ll

put it on and they’ll have their first

price drop at 14 days

and then they’ll take it off the market

at 30 days

so

i called july 20th i think by september

15th october 1st at the latest we’re

gonna know where we are i think a lot of

wish pricing and cancellations and

expireds will happen by october 1st

did you get my instagram message i got

my first deal with help and wanted to

connect i will look

i didn’t look at instagram this morning

because i was getting ready for the

daily financial news but let me see

uh let’s see

i don’t know david and dave

dividend was that dividend dave yeah

dividend dave i don’t see a message from

dividend dave

can you send me in again

i see one from greg

but no dave could you send me in again

please

i don’t see anything in my

hidden folder either so dave can you

send it to me again i just need your

address i will send you a card and give

you a shout out on the daily financial

news

oh when uh when you’re talking about

seven percent rates are you referring to

owner awk or investment

um that’s a great question i need to i

sometimes

i sometimes get rolling and

i just assume all of you can read my

mind i apologize for that so when i talk

about rates like that i’m always talking

owner ock

i always talk the lowest of the low

knowing that investor loans are a point

higher

so my fear now with the fed powell doing

his stick the fed funds going north of

four ten-year going north to five and a

half

the third year will be high sixes

maybe low sevens

that was owner rock that’s that’s why

the housing market is so broken

uh i’m curious what would it take for

banks to all of a sudden close heloc’s

uh i would tell you a doubling of

unemployment

i don’t even think it takes a double so

we’re at three and a half percent alyssa

hopefully i said that right today

i think if i think of unemployment

spiked like if we had unemployment go

from three and a half to five and a half

and like a four-month window

that would be enough to freak banks out

banks will get very nervous

if um unemployment that’s what i would

be watching banks are nervous

banks are a nervous

and they when they get nervous

helocs are the first helox could go

in an afternoon

i’ve i’ve worked at i’ve sold to banks

i’ve been at these meetings i’ve watched

them make uh portfolio decisions i’ve

sat there quietly as an observer i’ve

been there

and

seriously in a 90-minute

board meeting they could decide to close

all helocs i’ve seen them do it

so i would watch unemployment

sean that is an amazing question

so this is something that dawned on me

this morning when i was talking did my

live stream about um the fed

so let’s just play this out because i

think sean breaks up an amazing thing we

have to ask about the fed funds rate are

going up

without question

the question is what happens to the

10-year

because we have to remember that the fed

funds going up

has

ramifications

one of the ramifications is the dollar

gets stronger it just does

because the dollar gets stronger

emerging markets are

if they have emerging markets have debt

in dollars they’re screwed

they are screwed

screwed

we’re going to see debt

debt consolidation debt delay it’s going

to be ugh you think sri lanka is bad it

is it could get way worse in way way

more emerging markets it’s

not fun to think about

but then we have

like

tier one countries who are in a

recession folks europe’s in a recession

folks i think china is in a recession

i think much of asia could be in a

recession

we have their central banks raising

rates sure but not

enough

i think you’re right sean i think one of

the un unexpected

surprises benefits whatever you want to

call it

is you were you were

you are going to see

not only foreign countries

but you’re going to see large

institutions like um

the wealth fund of netherlands i think

is like one of the second or third

largest out there

they will start buying treasuries you

get the treasury to four percent

i think it’s like 3.1 yesterday

the 10-year treasury could be at four

before the end of the year

you are going to get

gargantuan purchases of the 10-year

which is going to help the fed sell by

the way they’re going to lower their

balance sheet

they’re just going to sell right into

that

so yeah i don’t i think i think what’s

gonna happen

is the margin

right if you take the federal funds rate

today at two and a quarter in the ten

year let’s call it 3.1 the margin is 85

basis points

i think it is possible that that

collapses or compresses i don’t ever

think it goes to zero i certainly don’t

think it inverts

uh but you could see that compress

and the dollar is going to get stronger

it’s just it’s yeah foreign countries

specifically emerging markets with

dollar denominated debt

oh that’s going to hurt

nick you’re very welcome

yep yeah build your buy box if the

numbers don’t work they don’t work i

mean my market of fresno california is

unaffordable i talked about that doesn’t

mean i’m gonna stop i’m gonna try to get

some seller financing to goose the yield

but i will likely build right build an

adu what do you do when the market’s

unaffordable you build

and if you’re building an adu and a

market that’s slowing down

contractors should be more available so

there’s always something to do

seth good morning everyone how are you

uh zuberd always hypes me up appreciate

that i try

oh it’s funny uh i ibuyers oh i have a

note where did i i got that this morning

one sec this was an amazing story

where did i find that was that an email

so i’m gonna go from memory

so one of the cards that i sent out

today on the daily financial news they

bought a property in

somewhere in arizona

i want to say summerlin but that’s the

that’s vegas

anyway somewhere in phoenix

here’s the story from my memory

open door buys the house for 502.

open door does light cleaning and tries

to sell it at 562.

they try to make 60 grand

it stays on the market for 100 days

my buyer who follows one rental at a

time writes an aggressive offer at 4 20.

4

20.

i think they agree from memory at like

430 plus 2

seller credits

listen to that again

open door overpays and buys it at 502.

opendoor tries to sell it at 562.

they keep it on the market for 100 days

a one rental at a time fan student

writes a stupid low offer at 4 20.

they end up buying it at 4 30 with two

points

of closer cost credit

you bet your ass you can buy from i

buyers i buyers

are essentially big piggy banks who are

publicly traded who are reserved for

losses

folks if your buy box has eye buyers in

it

repeat what my student did

track them days on market matters there

is zero chance

zero chance

open door list set at 562 you write a

420 offer on day one they will laugh you

out of the building

there is zero chance

uh open door lists listed at 562 they

take your offer at 4 20 after 30 days

but a hundred days

we know what happened

420 goes to 430 plus two points of

credit

if you are not taking advantage of eye

buyers

you are not paying attention

you bet your ass i buyers have

opportunity again days on market matter

i keep screaming

stop looking at first day listings

i originally went to 15 when business

insider interviewed me i’m now at 30.

you don’t need every deal you just need

one

use time ask for credits ask for closing

costs write

stupid offers

writing a 420 on a 560 offer is stupid

and they got it because it was a hundred

days old

i think that is an awesome story

seth southern california housing market

is slowly coming down

i prefer higher interest rates versus

higher home prices okay i’ve seen the

meme

uh

marry the price date the rate uh date

the rate or interest rate i’ve seen it

do the math

do the math

every vacant lots are merely a poured

concrete foundation costs money true

hey paul v good morning how are you

good morning zuber and everyone do you

think

there’s an outside shot for an eight

handle or maybe a peak of seven five

um

again if we’re talking owner ock 30-year

you know kind of best rates best credit

20 down

i don’t know i mean in eight

i mean

it’s not out of the question

do i think it’s likely

not with what i see today

not with what i see today

could i see seven and a half

yeah

i think it’s going to be seven seven

between seven and seven and a quarter i

just think there’s a net we’ve already

seen what happens when rates got to six

right rates got to they went to 6.03

for like two weeks

man can you imagine another point higher

oh

i don’t know yeah i mean it’s possible

yeah

selling unfinished slots to get out of

positions are painful yep

yeah i really do um if you heard my

daily financial news yesterday kind of

pre-powell speech

i

i was begging for 75 but thought he

would give us 50.

i re i flipped that

yesterday afternoon i now think you’re

right i think he’s like guys

i think again i think he walked up to mr

stock market kicked him in the nuts you

saw a thousand points the market wasn’t

ready so yeah i think he’s giving him

  1. we’re going to see we’re going to

see september 21st

15

down compared to what i don’t know what

that means

the fed broke housing by intent and

design not by accident

um

i don’t really think it matters

yeah i don’t

i don’t think that way i don’t think

that way it it happened i i have to deal

with it whether or not they did it on

purpose

or whether or not it was a happy

accident i don’t think matters at least

it doesn’t matter to me it happened so i

have to deal with it

when is the best time to start searching

homes to buy yesterday

it takes you a long time to learn your

buy box

what are you just going to sit down and

wait for some youtube channel to ring a

bell

the best time to start looking and

learning is yesterday

investor wealth good morning nicholas

good morning

uh cap afro-capitalist good morning

okay james

as far as my buy box i’m using nine

percent rates as my mortgage okay two to

three percent over current rates as long

as it cash flows there

i think that’s wise you know again plan

for the worst

planning for the worst case and dealing

with what happens is a good move i like

it

uh except on sunday 9 or 10 a.m when the

day is starting i look at houses that

are listed more than 30 days totally

agree totally agree

you got to look every day you got to

look every day this is a it’s

you just got to practice practice

practice

david good morning how are you

should i start looking by a home in

orlando in february or wait later you

should start looking yesterday

what part of yesterday yesterday

just because you look doesn’t mean

you’re writing an offer it means you’re

looking and learning

why wait what’s magic about february

what’s magic about november what’s magic

start looking yesterday learn your buy

box yesterday

good morning transactions were up in my

mark market in july report what should i

be doing i make offers close to list and

not getting it i’m finding average is

around five to six and i’m trying for

eight

keep doing what you’re doing i have

obviously no idea what market you’re in

there’s lots of markets that are still

hot i.e blackstone is still buying in 42

of the 580 markets so

maybe you’re in a hot market just keep

doing what you’re doing you’re heading

into a slower season summer is the

hottest and hardest time

keep going just keep keep doing you

again i’ve written 100 offers

my record is 100 offers before getting a

deal so just keep going

it’s practice repetition keep going you

got this

um

yeah you need to make a hundred offers

get one counter yeah

again go back to my example how many of

you watching this

would not have the balls

just be honest with yourself you see a

property listed for 560 or 562

and the numbers work for you at 4 20.

how many of you do not write that offer

i’m going to guess most of you

one of my students who do the work know

their numbers wrote that damn offer

and got a deal at 430 with 8 8 600 in

seller credits

do

the

work

zuber do you think now is the bottom for

the housing price if not yet what month

do you think it will bottom

uh i think housing is seasonal

uh i think winter months are always

lower

uh so it would not shock me if month on

month numbers or something lower but

again these these national averages

folks

should mean nothing to you they only

mean something to me as an economist and

somebody who’s looked at them every

month for 30 years

i will say it again

the most important metric everyone

watching me should follow is day to day

day

to

day

in your buy box next i look at year on

year

because otherwise i let seasonality

screw with my brain

and then lastly is month on month

housing is seasonal

inventory will roll over into the winter

prices will statistically go lower

because the inventory mix changes

all the big homes sell in the summer

because that’s when families move

it happens every year it’s not magical

every year pricing goes down in the

winter

not in the summer

i don’t know why people don’t get this

so

what i think about a national median

price low should mean absolutely nothing

do the work in your buy box

every single day

are prices going to come down 20 to 30

on average nationally over the next two

to three years

um

[Music]

why would they do that

what is happening that would cause that

i don’t understand

i mean maybe i mean mike i have no idea

there’s

i have no idea

i certainly don’t think so

i think people calling for a 30 crash

are foolish

but hey who knows maybe

maybe world war iii happens

maybe

mortgages are outlawed

maybe the government says you can only

own one home and if you own more than

one you have to sell who knows

some crazy black swan event can happen

and real estate could go to zero i don’t

know

but uh that is not my base case

i think waiting for a 30 crash

is um

a 30 national crash

national crash

is uh you might be waiting a long time

could vegas go 30 percent because it got

out of whack sure

could phoenix maybe

could boise sure

the nation

barring some

crazy

black swan events i don’t know i mean

nobody nobody has been able to tell me

a story

that i can believe in i have been doing

this for 20 years looked every day i’ve

invested through the last crash i

positioned myself to take advantage of

the last crash i got out at the peak so

i saw it coming

you don’t have four sellers you don’t

have way before sellers you don’t have

50 percent of loans that are arms you

don’t have 28 loans that are 2 and 28.

there’s just no recipe for seller after

seller after seller after seller i just

don’t see it

could it happen sure what do i know

yep do the work yep

the market was ready but i was re the

market was ready but i was ready short i

think you’re saying you were short the

market if you were congrats

congrats

wow that’s nice running rentals quick

wow the yeah that’s don bev yeah that’s

um

again i don’t think i would be again

just me talking to myself here i don’t

think i would be too nervous about them

closing uh an equity line or a heloc

uh unless unemployment started going the

other way

again banks are skittish

banks will close heloc’s in a minute i

mean quickly like i talked about earlier

but there has to be you you you can see

it coming

you can see it coming watch unemployment

watch unemployment

like if if like unemployment jumped from

three and a half to five percent in like

three months

uh yeah i might i might i might uh i

might tap my heloc

but i mean if you know we’re going to

get a jobs number on friday september

2nd

it’s probably going to be a pretty good

number so

yeah

yeah i understand i get it

lyric so should i pull the trigger on

the house and read finance in five to

ten years dude i have no idea

i don’t know your buy box i don’t your

market i don’t know your plan i don’t

know the homeowner i don’t know renner

no idea

i can tell you this much i am buying

every great deal i can

i say great on purpose i don’t buy

average i don’t even buy good deals

i’m buying every great deal i can as are

all my followers so lyric is it a great

deal or is it just a

if it’s just a

then no of course not

my team people that follow me are

writing 420 offers on 562 lists and

getting great deals

it is always a great day to get a great

deal you need to tell me is it a great

deal i don’t know your buy box i haven’t

looked at it i never will look at it i’m

not doing the work for you

no idea

well at least the upper middle class and

upper class can take cheaper vacations

this winter with a strong dollar yeah

dude if you ever want to go to europe

go

thoughts on forcing people back to

office work to cut employees instead of

announcing layoffs as a start

uh i think companies are going to do

what companies do

and they always will they’re going to do

what they’re going to do

if you don’t want to work there don’t

work there

awesome bought it for 405 2 of seller

credit that’s awesome

i just love that

started at 190 we are talking to the

seller financing a duplex at 1 30 after

80 days brett that is exactly a great

deal again i can guess 190

get it at 130 seller financing 80 days

on market folks

folks pay attention

pay attention days on market matter

i am only fishing at 30 days or more

i don’t care if it’s first day listing

don’t care

i want to find motivated sellers they’re

out there

open door was a motivated seller at 100

days

brett has an example of a seller being

motivated at 80 days

do

the

work

do the work all right folks i’m going to

stop it right there sorry again i can’t

get to all the questions i’m going to

shut this down because i owe my students

a 30 minute live in our private facebook

group so i’m going to check out drink

some water i will talk to you there soon

bye bye

you

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