Video Closed Captioning:
one
well good afternoon everybody it is Matt
achy The Lumberjack landlord it is
fantastic friday
I made it I made it another week Dion
now is fully retired I’m still not but I
made it another week and right now I
gotta be honest we are absolutely
working on borrowed time there is no the
clock is getting very very small yes the
sand in that hourglasses fairly visible
exactly I feel like a soap opera it
might only take an hour no no so um Mike
what we wanted to talk to today today to
you about was New Hampshire data so I
like to go through kind of once a month
I get my report I read through it try
and understand what’s going on in the
state different counties I like sharing
this because I think a lot of people
don’t really understand the
affordability index and as far as I know
I don’t know that every state creates a
report like this but pretty darn near
close every state creates a report like
this yeah I would say every now every
State’s uh realtor board will report
something there are certainly
non-standards they’re all unique most
report transactions and pendings and
mediums there’s there’s kind of a format
but there are all different
this is why I’m talking about right July
until July 1st to July 19th we’re going
to get real estate agents will report
what they know redfinzilla will report
what they know States will report what
they know but the coup de gras comes
next Wednesday when Nar reports and boy
that’s gonna be a big day
it’s gonna be very big it’s going to be
very big so without further Ado let’s
kind of jump into some of the numbers
and see what these things look like
um I am going to and this is New
Hampshire State not yours not your
little you know 50 000 towns yes yes
this is New Hampshire State as Mike said
not to be confused with my little 50 000
towns
um I’m teasing him Michael I know you
are yeah I still can’t believe that you
know you’re you’re three buy boxes or
your three cities
yeah 120th the size of my little little
city yeah it’s true it’s crazy yeah I
mean everything’s bigger in California
right and then everything’s bigger than
they are in Texas it’s the way it goes
it’s like uh all right so we’ll change
over we’ll start sharing this screen I’m
going to share I think the entire screen
yeah I’m gonna do that uh let’s see here
here we go we’ll share the entire screen
I’m a little nervous actually
oh yeah so they do year over year so I
put the two I basically do it did side
by side
okay okay so here is you know here over
here on the left this is the
affordability index was a 73
down again
okay to 70.
okay from May to June all right so this
is so this is June’s report right here
on the right yeah I see yeah this is
this is May’s report
all right so let me just walk top down
top down let’s go close sales yeah so so
can you uh okay close sales so here I’ll
do sales closer watch this
there we go that’s closer oops there you
go that’s fine so close sales went up in
June now that’s normal for New Hampshire
right yeah yeah we kind of we kind of so
big shopping season here is kind of
April so a lot of those transactions
close in June that’s when real because
everybody wants to be closing right
after school gets out and then moving
and then spending the rest of their
summer enjoying themselves okay so
median home price stayed flat month on
month better but up 12 because again I’m
looking at year on year stuff yes okay
uh volume oh look at that well that
makes sense right so volume that’s
that’s number of transactions times the
amount okay so that’s up yep uh days on
Market oh days on Market went down
yeah 13.
pending sales down a little bit so it
could get some softening but that might
be the summer difference yep months of
Supply oh months of supplier up
yep so yeah one five so yeah 1.5 now it
was 1.2 so new listings up 10 okay all
right month on month
that makes sense homes for sale more
homes for sale that again that makes
sense
and pricing again as opposed to list
down slightly month on month yep and the
affordability as you said has gone down
again yeah again can I see the year on
year for June yep yeah sure so year on
year for June is right there
right here yeah my I can’t can I move
this oh can you can you see no I can see
it but our pictures were in it but I can
I moved us I didn’t know I could do okay
it’s funny I’ve used Zoom for three
years didn’t know I could do that okay
here we go so year on year
yes uh
uh oh so that’s a year to okay so year
to date okay I see what they’re doing
month so this is yeah this is this is
this this is June of 21 this is June of
22 and then year to date year to date
correct see I don’t usually see
year-to-date summarize so that’s Shout
Out New Hampshire yeah nicely they do a
good job with this so closings this so
again right what am I keep saying
transactions are down so transactions
are down 15 year to date yep
okay that makes sense media look at that
what do I keep telling people
transactions down price up so again
transactions down year to date 15 prices
up roughly 16. yep that’s that’s that’s
kind of what I keep talking about and
people keep yelling at me about yeah
volume oh volume is down yep volumes
down because we’re having a real
inventory issue
oh okay yeah yeah okay got it days on
Market oh look at that days on Market
are up
or no way down
Market 23. yep verse 30. yep pendings oh
the Market’s slowing though
right I think days on Market is going to
go up next month because you’re slowing
with your pendings yep I think so
new listings ooh you still have an
inventory problem we do very much so
that’ll be that’ll be rectified with
pending slowing down
you’re still like you keep telling me
and I keep going what the hell your
Market’s still red hot you’re still
getting roughly 104 of asking correct
104.6 right here yep and yeah your
affordability crash so I would say New
Hampshire not healthy
correct maybe early signs of inventory
building
but again
I I again I I would be so we have 50
states plus the District of Columbia so
they Nar will Report 51 areas yeah
um let’s just say it’s 50 for easier
math I suspect
40 of the 50 so 80 of the markets to be
what you have less transactions higher
median or higher median prices there
will be 10 exceptions and in the
exceptions it won’t be price it will be
transactions I suspect there will be 10
states a la Florida given everything I’m
in Reading will be up in transactions
yeah so here’s
here’s here was the number that kind of
blew me away Mike
um where is it uh it is
hold on I saw one number that actually
scared the Daylights out of me
it was on condos
um
so I think it happens in condos first
okay like in like in a lot of markets it
kind of happens with condos first
yeah um
pending sales are way down closed sales
are way down
um
month supply it’s only up 10 but there’s
a bunch of big projects about to hit in
my area yeah
um one’s for sale but they’re still
getting well over asked the
affordability yeah better but it’s still
- yeah it’s your Market’s just not
healthy nope
nope here’s the here’s the closed sales
so we’re kind of so we’re lower than we
were in 2020 we’re lower than we were in
21 but we still don’t have a bunch of
inventory
the median price has gone from 330 to
407 to 460. yeah
yeah and again I think that happens
again it’s more of a structural problem
so this is what this is really funny so
this morning I did a live stream about
Phoenix in Vegas yep uh so I would love
to if you don’t know it’s cool but this
is what I asked my audience I was like
hey tell me what the median price is so
the median price for you is like 460 or
something we just looked at
what is your median price median price
460 yeah
so so what I would love you to do today
if you can or have one of your Realtors
do it is get a flash of inventory right
how many listings are below 460 and then
how many listings are above
because the median price is all about
meeting of closing it doesn’t say median
inventory yeah give me one second I’ll
tell you I so I have that so the reason
I’m asking this is because I have to
figure out are there more states or
cities like Phoenix or more States in
cities like Vegas right because Vegas
pain is happening above the media
Phoenix Payne so far unique but I
believe there are others
is below the media and in Phoenix I
believe you’re going to have horrible
price degradation because again median
price is it’s not average it’s not this
it’s not emotional it’s the freaking
middle number and if you’re building
inventory below the media the median has
to fall that’s why Vegas is going to be
sticky because again the pain is above
the media
so I I asked my audience today take some
numbers right flash it today flash it
August 1st flash it August 15th and
let’s see what’s going on around the
country yeah I’ll try and get those
numbers for you it’s not cooperating
with me right now but yeah we’re going
to look at so sub four so are we doing
medians so sub 460 basis yes no it has
to be right on the median so sub 460 how
many active sub uh above 460 write it
down and then I want to look August 1st
and I want to look August 15th because
what we need to figure out Matt is the
rate of change let’s just say for
example you have 812 below 460 and you
only have five something above 460. that
means nothing to me what I want to know
is the rate of change where is inventory
building and this is why Vegas and
Phoenix are fascinating
Phoenix so far is the only Market that
is ballooning inventory below the media
Vegas is like most markets I look at
ballooning inventory above the median so
we may see horrible price degradation in
Vegas above you may see 100K 150k 200k
price Cuts in Vegas but if it’s above
the median all it does is pulls the
median higher because we’ve structurally
broken the housing market I believe
there’s a great economic paper that will
be written on this subject it’s why it’s
fascinating to me and why nobody should
care except the Thousand economists that
look at this data but yeah I think I
think the freaking housing market is so
broken
I agreed I mean Mike we went from 17
days
last year to 13 days on Market yeah your
Market’s not healthy the state of New
Hampshire not healthy not healthy at all
it might be the most I don’t know this
for sure it is certainly the most
unhealthy State I have data on I don’t
have data on most but of the 12 I’ve
looked at it’s the most unhealthy I
agree with you
um so here’s the pending sales thing so
last year we had 1889 this year only
- our Market just remains super
super tight oh yeah you’re not going to
get price degradation in a market like
that no no well that’s so that’s the
issue that’s the issue is that we’re not
seeing last weekend three open houses
all three of them sold for 20 30 and 50
000 over asking price yeah you’re not
going to see media your median price is
going up in a market this time your
price is going up it just is it’s supply
and demand it
and again New Hampshire is odd because
again you get those Rich Massachusetts
and New Yorkers coming in paying cash
they’re not sensitive to mortgage rates
no correct they’re like hey charge me
ten percent I don’t care I’m writing a
check doesn’t matter that’s exactly
right well I mean we had so we had um so
I sold one of my properties to somebody
that sold their two-bedroom co uh
two-bedroom condo in South Boston they
sold it for about a million bucks and
they owed four or five hundred thousand
they they literally wrote a check for
six hundred thousand dollars for the
house that I sold them yeah they they’re
they’re not raped or really even price
sensitive they’re like I just want it at
all no debt we’re done that that house
was 2600 square feet on five acres of
land and a super high-end remodel yeah
so this this is why migration is again
the FED broke housing the pandemic
forced migration caused people to work
different dude the housing market
is going to be so disrupted the next
couple years it’s for a guy who is in
studies this stuff for 30 years the next
two years are going to be fascinating
for me to watch yeah I mean year to day
I mean 70 is our affordability index
that’s the worst affordability I’ve seen
in any state and again your scale is
different than mine right yours is one
to two hundred mine is zero to one
hundred uh so a 70 probably equates to
like a freaking 12 or 11 in my market
right it’s just very unhealthy yeah and
we were at one I mean so here’s the
thing kind of historically I mean look
look here where we typically are kind of
historically this is yeah where where so
the highest you were oh so yours is not
zero to 200 yours is zero to 300 okay
yes it can go to yes so yeah you are
what the top the top end is what’s kind
of deceived so what’s interesting about
this is oh that’s condo sorry yeah
that’s condos yeah so we’re looking at
single family so it’s so basically
capped out at like 210 215 one month
yeah
um and that was in 2012 and I was buying
kind of through here yeah again I don’t
know your Market at all but looking at
this chart anything at 150 is okay yes
70 not okay
yeah and that’s the thing is like lowest
on record look at that look like this is
this is five six seven and eight right
here yeah that’s bubble time and look at
us here we are dog legged well below
that and again you are not going to see
any you’re you’re not having a housing
crash sorry your prices aren’t again you
will have a transaction crash and we’re
seeing that but your prices are not
going to fall thank you Mike Zuber you
were right
I I mean these all these people just
screaming at me like how can
transactions fall and price is not I’m
like you don’t understand median price I
mean just leave me alone it freaking
drives me crazy
like here’s the this is this is the
insanity this is now so this is all
property this is all property yeah
15.7 up from last year yeah and closed
sales down 12 and you’re gonna date 14-3
I’m telling you yeah it’s New
Hampshire’s you yeah I think you were
called I think you called this you
thought some by the end of next year
your Market would see a negative number
I think is what you said yes yeah
what you want to take that back I mean
are you not looking at these numbers so
here’s the only reason that I think that
is that so in my in my um in my small
cities in my in my tiny towns
there there is there are two
developments oh so you have an inventory
coming there are two developments one of
them is uh 440
okay apartments and to give you an idea
of scale that is now just so I’m clear
when you say Apartments you mean rental
units not condos like they sell in New
York these are rentals okay rentals yes
okay so 440 of those units then there
will have like another 120 units that
they’re doing in that same development
there will be condos oh okay so 440 but
but that’s 3x the largest
multi-family that’s ever been built here
hmm
I believe that when that finishes end of
next year beginning of 24 I believe that
there’s going to be massive Supply
however that is all what’s the funniest
thing is they’re the ones who built this
the currents currently the largest at
145 or 144.
um
they’re gonna be doing this one that’s
gonna be like 450. what’s amazing is
they’re gonna basically it’s like an
apple story they’re going to be
taking their own people that want to
move up from here to here the problem is
cost basis in this other building the
cost basis Mike is going to be Insanity
they’re going to have a hard time
filling those and making any money like
they’re going to be giving away months
and security deposits so but again I’m
wondering you’re trying to tell me all
this like you’re going to somehow back
into your lower prices which I don’t
understand how you would call that right
they’re gonna get they’re going to have
to have rent at such a level
that’s probably going to keep people in
the 140 because the the margin right
it’s not worth the extra 400 bucks or
whatever it is and oh by the way at some
point buying a home is better than this
new margin I I can’t look at these
numbers
and see how you could call a price crash
I mean I don’t get it or correction
correct I think because I think that
people will I I think that instead of
buying homes I think people will move
into these super luxury they could they
could I mean it’s I mean if we get a
seven or an eight handle on 30-year
money maybe that and that’s kind of the
idea right is hey we’re not we’re not
sacrificing lifestyle we absolutely love
it here this is beautiful I mean it’s
literally right on the waterfront like
it’s gorgeous it’s gonna be a beautiful
area yeah so if I were to look at these
numbers for like August and September so
a couple more months out I still I
expect close transactions to fall and I
expect your median price to I don’t know
maybe it comes down but it’ll still be
plus eight plus nine percent uh I mean I
mean again the biggest issue for us
Remains the Same which is
months of Supply we went up point one
slowly but surely and that was over a
year ago but from again the big key for
us this time around was we went to one
five from one two yeah so if you look at
if you look at where we were and I think
we were at well that’s both the
combination of slower demand and more
Supply it’s just this is how markets
heal themselves it is so much slower
than everybody everybody expects this to
be an nft or a crypto or a stock and
change overnight dude housing is so much
slower than we all were well so do you
know what this so this number right here
this number that’s one two right here do
you know what that number was in March
of 22 of of this year March of this year
it’s one two now one five and one five
now I’m gonna go like point eight yes
point it was point seven yeah oh that
was close so here’s the thing so March
right point seven we’re jogging up to
1.2 we’re jogging now up to 1.5 yeah so
I mean again point seven to point two I
mean if you were one of those channels
you could say that’s a hundred percent
increase in in months of Supply right
so what we’re what I’m really waiting to
see is how aggressively the line has
grown right because now we’re talking
about a 460 000
medium price this would be a good
question for you because I think this is
important
and again I think this all starts on the
20th of July what will be more impacted
in New Hampshire
will it be the loss of buyers who are
scared like nope I’m going to sign a new
lease I’m going to sign up for another
year
or is it going to be buyer or sellers go
fear missing out I’m going to sell my
thing to a Massachusetts or New York
buyer I’m out at the top one of those
two things is going to move first right
I don’t know what it’s going to be in
every state I don’t certainly don’t know
what it could be in New Hampshire do you
think more people get afraid or you
think more Supply comes on because I
don’t think they move equally
I don’t know I think the thing that I’m
most concerned I think I think
affordability continues to get worse oh
yeah that’s exactly what these numbers
say yeah because 73 to 70 like Mike
we’re in we’re in territory that we’ve
never seen before like not even close
well you’re a territory that most States
haven’t seen I mean New Hampshire again
could be the most unhealthy and again
it’s all migration it is this is why
Vegas got hit really hard over the last
two years right so you had these people
selling their 1950s you know boxes
in LA and buying cash and they were not
price sensitive and now that might be
unwinding when you realize in August
it’s 120 degrees and you’re like
freaking why do I only want to live in
an oven
so um yeah it’s it’s dude the housing
market is fascinating to me consumers
it’s just I geek out at this stuff I
really am I’ve been look at the median
price every month uh for almost 30 years
median price means something to me I
know a lot of people wig out well you’re
talking about median price and uh dude
that’s what I’ve been looking at for 30
years well yeah I mean sorry the data
only matters when you’re comparing
Apples to Apples when you’re tracking
the same thing yeah don’t change the
rules just because you don’t like the
outcome
yeah let’s look at houses on Hills yeah
yeah exactly let’s start charting those
but yeah like I said I mean I think the
numbers in our area I expected when we
hit in the sixes for rates I expected
that that was going to start to slow
things down the Realtors here said it
has started to slow things down but but
and my one agent loves to correct me he
said Matt I don’t need 20 offers I said
because that’s what we talk about all
the time yeah I’m still I’m still
getting two or three I don’t have empty
open houses I’m not having people not
show up at all to an open house yeah
this this is why new hand and again
sometimes it’s just being in the right
place sure and New Hampshire given
what’s going on with taxes and migration
and work from home you win you win and
there are a few spots there are a few
spots in New Hampshire is likely one of
them that will be
um
would be very strong next year yeah I
think I think you’re in one of them I
don’t know how you see a 10 drop but
that’s okay so I think it’s so I think
the not so I don’t think it’s gonna be
10 in my area I think it’s gonna be I
think nationally it’s gonna be 10 oh you
are calling National oh my national yeah
yeah National No Myers there’s no way
it’s going down 10 points I might every
morning that’s part of my prayer time is
that okay it would go down
but Mike this is the hilarious thing so
I just heard so we just so we signed on
the dotted line on another deal today
nice yeah very excited so we’ll do it
we’ll do a dive on that deal uh sometime
but what’s really interesting is yeah
you got to close it first we don’t talk
about deals today exactly well yeah so
they just they just literally right
before the call they said hey all the
funds have been dispersed so it’s closed
okay and on record
um but what’s really interesting is it
it’s kind of a problem now because
two of the agents actually asked by name
of the selling agent if I was the one
who won the property that is that is a
problem you’re becoming a dominant force
in your Market that’s not good I don’t
like that I I want to be the man behind
the eye Behind the Green curtain not the
iron ones but you need to fish in a pond
that’s bigger than 50 000. as soon as
hey as soon as I can find a market that
gives me my returns like this yeah like
that’s the thing for me is it’s like you
know that because the bank even said you
did a lot of transactions last year I
said sure they said was there a reason
why I go you’re giving me money at
almost oh yeah exactly when money’s free
I like to use it I think we told people
I mean giving me money fixed debt at
3.75 why wouldn’t I right there isn’t
anything I wouldn’t buy at that yeah I
know a guy that has a shirt that says I
use inflation to get rich ask me how I
like that guy yeah let me borrow all the
money I can sub for it I can earn
twelves 18s and 24s kind of an easy
trade right well like how smart does
Barry’s starting like look for Starwood
Hotels he had a hundred million from the
German government at one percent one
yeah yeah one percent yeah man I love
that Mike tell everybody where they can
find you my friend one rental at a time
and we do a live stream on Saturdays at
8 A.M and if you are one of my students
we’re doing a deep dive two weeks in a
row on house hacking uh tomorrow
Saturday the 16th will be house hacking
roommate Style with Spencer Cornelia and
Todd Baldwin and next week the one and
only Lumberjack and Dion talking about
house hacking units I’m so excited I
know nothing about these topics but the
channel brings experts and we can bring
it out I think I think house hacking uh
will make more uh gen Z and Millennials
millionaires by the time they’re 30 than
anything else well listen you’re not
getting in the New Hampshire housing
market I’m not sure how second so
look at the numbers you need three or
four salaries to buy some of this stuff
which would make sense but as I always
say we try and create great content for
you please please subscribe hit the like
button we had definitely you’re coming
out with some crazy crazy stuff as far
as product reviews and interviews with
amazing people like Mike Zuber from one
rental at the time and more to come Mike
thanks so much for the time we’ll see
you in segment number two awesome