Video Closed Captioning:
good morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael’s uber one rental at a
time back with this monday expert
entrepreneur
one of the chapters in my 15
conversation with real estate
millionaires i’ll have you know mr greg
dickerson how you doing sir doing great
michael how are you today i’m doing well
so uh i watch your youtube channel all
the time usually about a day late or so
uh but you had a call on bitcoin
i want to say it was two weeks ago where
you kind of indicated you thought the
floor was around 36 000 which seems to
have held very well um so a i want to
talk about what you saw in that and then
i have some other conversations about
crypto because uh
i’ve been
anyways we’ll start with your call of 36
- what’d you see all of that stuff
because it seems to have held up
yeah yeah so i called a local bottom at
36 000 based on a closing basis so
crypto is a 24 7 market but but it does
reset every 24 hours so that you have
your daily opens and closes in terms of
price action so those candles that are
printed on a daily um you know on a
daily basis and then you have your
weekly and your monthly and we have a
monthly close coming up today which is
really important in terms of the trend
price action but
um there’s a thing called the death
cross where the 50-day moving average uh
drops over the 200-day moving average
it’s known as a death cross in financial
markets not just crypto
and i just spotted a pattern where
back in
you know last year what was it march
april last year when the markets peaked
or you know 2021
um there was a death cross that occurred
before that june july bottom and then
this year in november that death cross
you know well not november but you know
a couple of weeks ago or recently it
crossed the same exact amount of days
from the peak of the prior to market
peaks now it didn’t work going back into
2018 2017 but just this cycle 64 000
peak in uh what was it you know april
may somewhere around there i don’t know
the exact day i don’t remember the exact
day and then again in november this year
so the death cross occurred the same
amount of days after those peaks
so then i went back and i looked at okay
well how many days was it from the death
cross to the bottom in june july and
what was the percentage of a drop and
then i went over and extrapolated that
out and i said well if this pattern
holds up it says that we’re going to
bottom at the 36 000 range
and it’s going to be around february
14th where we’ll have a bounce back into
uh you know a retracement to us you know
fib level that we’re targeting and
that’s you know 618 to 702 which is a
fibonacci retracement mathematical
calculations that are used in financial
markets that you know all assets all
price markets kind of it’s a technical
level that they retrace to after they’ve
dropped but and then that’s where we’re
going to have that you know come to
jesus moment with bitcoin and crypto are
we going to continue on from there and
back into a bull market or are we going
to roll back over into a longer more
sustained bear market and see even more
downside and potentially break some of
those lows that we set june july and
test the 2017-2018 peak of 20 000. so
that’s a thesis based on that death
cross sure and i said if this holds up
that’s where we’re going to hit well we
you know um wicked down to about 33 000
but we closed you know bitcoin closed at
36 on that day
or you know within a few days after that
and we’ve held that 35 to 36 000 level
so it looks like the theory is holding
up and there’s a few other
uh people out there analysts that have
been kind of finding cons confluence
with this you know early to mid february
time frame looking for a bounce
so um here within the next two weeks
we’re going to know whether or not this
is going to hold up
and now
what would invalidate all this if it
just turned and just dropped you know
below that 33 000
wick low that the price wicked down to
um which was basically just taking out
stops right it was just it was just a
liquidity hunt when it went down to that
33 000 level the closing is what i’m
talking about that’s what’s important
okay so if we start closing below 35 000
that will invalidate everything and
you know we’ll just have to re reassess
and see what’s going on there but right
now it looks like the thesis is holding
up and it’ll be interesting to see
uh if it does hold up and it does pivot
and go back into that retracement and
that could see bitcoin get back up into
the 50 000 range
for that retracement depending on where
the low is at the time before it would
roll over and go back back into a more
sustained bear market more you know
testing some of those prior cycle lows
uh but if it breaks through those
fibonacci levels which are technical
levels based on algorithmic um you know
trading uh formulas that the hedge funds
investment funds and investors use out
there if it breaks through that then we
could just you know be in for a new
all-time high and i did a video on that
the other day and you know where that
would take us and that that would be a
70 to 80 000 target you know before
another little drop and then go back and
see if you can go a little higher kind
of repeating that cycle sure now the
other thing that would invalidate this
would be crisis around the world if
russia invades and that becomes a
serious issue uh if another little
bombshell is dropped in the market
somehow if coronavirus rears its ugly
head again those things are all you know
things that could invalidate stuff black
swan events not so much black swan but
crisis type events that you just can’t
you know foresee but uh yeah it’s
interesting and it seems to be holding
holding the pattern right now so we’ll
see what happens yeah it’s funny that
video of yours had a lot of video views
again i’m not a crypto guy got one
percent as an insurance as you know
and um but i look through the comments
crypto’s a space i have not played in
but man i spent a lot of time in those
comments and
it’s it’s a different world uh but what
i took from it is a lot of people who
are giving you credit for that 36 call
so congratulations i actually had a
couple questions about crypto we’re not
going to talk bitcoin ethereum or any
coins i’m going to talk about crypto the
market
yeah and on the comments so i want to
clear one thing up right now i get a lot
of comments you and me both people are
like oh you boomers back
i’m not a boomer i’m not a boomer i
missed the cut off by three years so
you know i’m sorry if uh you know if
that hurts hurt your feelings out there
yeah i am not a boomer i don’t want
anything
i’m a gen xer baby me too man gen x all
the way hey um again crypto market all
coins
all of them
so i i had a buddy of mine i’ve talked
about many times that came to me in the
first run up wearing this little fob
around his neck whatever that was all
excited so i poked it crypto a little
bit ran away because it was it seemed
all smoke and mirrors i come back i put
some some money in as a hedge but i want
to talk about what i learned researching
it before i put in my insurance policy
one is there was a general belief
that crypto was a hedge of inflation
right if the dollar weakens or you know
the dollar the fiat currency that uh
crypto would you know uh be a protection
against that
also there was kind of in the same vein
it was a non-correlated acid
first and foremost those two things i
think
while i read them a lot while people
were pushing them
at least as i stand here right now to me
it’s like those both are wrong
inflation is raging
not working and it’s certainly not
non-correlated it is just as correlated
as anything so what do you think about
those two things am i missing anything
no i mean so bitcoin has gone through a
transition it was created initially as a
new form of currency you know
peer-to-peer transfer of value around
the world permissionless
no need for third parties individual
banking that’s what it was created for
in the problem it was trying to solve
okay so what what you know ended up
happening as we’ve gone along is it’s
become you know basically a speculative
asset and a lot of people ignored that
um aspect of it because there is you
know a group and a narrative out there
of bitcoin maximalism that you know
believes it’s going to be the world’s
reserve currency and that you know
there’s not going to be any fiat
currency or money anymore it’s all going
to be bitcoin oh wow bitcoin standard so
there there is a belief and a philosophy
out there that follows that and that’s
where a lot of this comes from is that
narrative and i think what everybody has
seen is especially
you know it was much more retail driven
prior to 2017-2018
even in 2017-2018 now it’s more
institutional driven the biggest money
in the game now are institutional
investors there still is some retail
participation but the money that’s in
there with institutional funds kind of
dwarfs that yeah uh you know as far as
driving price action and things like
that so it’s very different space now
it’s not retail driven it’s
institutional driven now if you want to
say store up value which is the argument
of a hedge against inflation okay it has
for people that invested prior to these
two cycles the problem is 70 of the
people that are in the space now and
that own got in in the last year so they
got into the tops and that tends to be
what happens with retail retail tends to
buy the top and sell the bottom so a lot
of people that have recently gotten into
space have gotten in it at the top so to
them it’s not a hedge against inflation
it’s not a store of value and it’s a bad
investment okay um
right now and you know if it hits a
hundred thousand if it hits two hundred
thousand then that conversation is
different and that’s the argument that
people make is oh well we’re talking
long term okay we’re you can’t look at
bitcoin by the day by the week yeah zoom
out you have to zoom out you have to
look five ten years because the history
is correct it’s gone up it’s always gone
up it draws down 80 but it comes back
draws down 70 comes back so right now
this is the least uh dramatic drawdown
that bitcoin has seen in its history
given a correction that we’ve had now
it’ll draw 50 here and there but
generally in a bear market it draws all
the way back to 70 80 percent before it
rebounds and comes back
and it’ll have some bounces along the
way but ultimately we’ll bottom and we
don’t know if it will or if it won’t
right now we’re waiting to see how the
cycles play out so
when you look at long term people that
got in you know prior to the run-up
um
you know of 2021 after the march bottom
um if anybody got in you know even if
you’re in at 20 000 at the peak in 2018
and you wrote it down and wrote it back
up you’re still in good shape you’re
only up a little bit but you’re still up
you know you’ve beat inflation over that
time period so so the argument is
correct depending on when you got in
and you know that’s that’s the
unfortunate part is for people that got
in at the top we don’t know
we don’t know nobody knows you know
where it’s going to go or how long it’s
going to last and you know whether or
not you know it becomes obsolete as a
technology or a thesis down the road i
mean we just don’t know we know
technologies get replaced all the time
bitcoin is a technology i mean that’s
what it is when you look at the price
cycle of bitcoin you’re looking at the
adoption curve of a technology that’s
what that is
so
you know there’s no guarantees i believe
in it i think there’s enough
network effect now there’s enough
institutional involvement that once we
get regulation once we get clear
guidance on what the space is going to
look like moving forward i think bitcoin
will stabilize it’ll continue to grow
and it will prove itself you know
ultimately as a digital goal i think it
is a better
investment
product than gold because of all the
attributes of bitcoin because it’s
instantly transferable you know you
don’t have to physically hold it store
it all those different things into you
know divisible you know
you can you know divide it up into
satoshi’s all these different you know
things that make bitcoin such a positive
thing i think it’s a great technology i
think it’s a great um solution for that
store of value
problem uh that we have and it’s you
know limited supply and all that but i
don’t mean i don’t think you know in the
near term that means it’s worth a
million dollars a coin either you know i
think
you know you need a lot more capital in
the space it needs a lot more of a
proven track record before it can reach
you know super super high levels and a
lot of people don’t agree with that and
nobody knows exactly where it’s going to
go up nobody knows exactly where it can
go down all we know is where it’s been
what it’s doing and you know
that’s what you have to look at let me
close out on the other point so that was
a great example of inflation and i i
agree with you right you zoom out
and you don’t look at where you got in i
i think that’s well said what about the
whole non-correlated asset because at
least over the last couple of years it
has been very correlated
uh and
it wasn’t supposed to be but maybe it
will be going forward because it is a
risk asset money chases it or is it just
that hey there was too much money
inflation was here
people put it in different places or
what do you think about non-correlated
no it’s it’s definitely correlated and
you can see that i mean it’ll it’ll you
know
derail here and there like the other day
the nasdaq was going i think down and
bitcoin was going up just very short
term
you know period of time and then you
have the dollar whenever the dollar’s up
bitcoin’s down whenever bitcoin’s down
the dollar is up you know vice versa so
you’re seeing that so yeah it’s
definitely correlated with you know
other financial markets and it’s because
the the biggest players in the space now
are institutional investors you know
bank investment banks um you know
investment funds hedge funds um very
small participation with you know
sovereign wealth funds life companies
insurance companies things like that um
you know endowments they’re dipping
their toe in some you know but we
haven’t seen you know the amount of
investable capital from that
yeah that’s 100 trillion dollars around
the world or more you know they could
potentially come into the space so even
if they contributed 10
you know you’re talking about a
significant amount of capital that could
flow into the space i mean
very small amounts of money have been
put into space by these larger investors
because they don’t trust it yet right
they’re waiting for regulations waiting
for
regulatory guidance and clarity around
the world so that they can be confident
and comfortable investing in the asset
they’re looking for more you know
stability you know with
with the um
gains that we’ve experienced come
volatility with a newer technology
that’s just the nature of the business
you know so or the nature of the beast
of a emerging technology so
um that’s kind of where we’re at now and
what’s needed uh but yeah it’s
definitely co-related because of the
recycling of capital right it’s like the
rotation of growth into cyclicals into
you know um
tech and all that same kind of thing
very cool it’s a tech stock i mean it’s
basically a tech stock yeah well again
folks uh greg has expertise that i do
not have he goes in areas that i do not
and one of them is obviously crypto he
made a wonderful call a couple of weeks
ago i suggest you check them out and
where do they go
gregdickerson.com all my input is there
youtube podcast go check it out thanks