He Called Bitcoin Floor of $36,000. How did He Do it? Is Crypto a Hedge against Inflation?

Video Closed Captioning:

good morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael’s uber one rental at a

time back with this monday expert

entrepreneur

one of the chapters in my 15

conversation with real estate

millionaires i’ll have you know mr greg

dickerson how you doing sir doing great

michael how are you today i’m doing well

so uh i watch your youtube channel all

the time usually about a day late or so

uh but you had a call on bitcoin

i want to say it was two weeks ago where

you kind of indicated you thought the

floor was around 36 000 which seems to

have held very well um so a i want to

talk about what you saw in that and then

i have some other conversations about

crypto because uh

i’ve been

anyways we’ll start with your call of 36

  1. what’d you see all of that stuff

because it seems to have held up

yeah yeah so i called a local bottom at

36 000 based on a closing basis so

crypto is a 24 7 market but but it does

reset every 24 hours so that you have

your daily opens and closes in terms of

price action so those candles that are

printed on a daily um you know on a

daily basis and then you have your

weekly and your monthly and we have a

monthly close coming up today which is

really important in terms of the trend

price action but

um there’s a thing called the death

cross where the 50-day moving average uh

drops over the 200-day moving average

it’s known as a death cross in financial

markets not just crypto

and i just spotted a pattern where

back in

you know last year what was it march

april last year when the markets peaked

or you know 2021

um there was a death cross that occurred

before that june july bottom and then

this year in november that death cross

you know well not november but you know

a couple of weeks ago or recently it

crossed the same exact amount of days

from the peak of the prior to market

peaks now it didn’t work going back into

2018 2017 but just this cycle 64 000

peak in uh what was it you know april

may somewhere around there i don’t know

the exact day i don’t remember the exact

day and then again in november this year

so the death cross occurred the same

amount of days after those peaks

so then i went back and i looked at okay

well how many days was it from the death

cross to the bottom in june july and

what was the percentage of a drop and

then i went over and extrapolated that

out and i said well if this pattern

holds up it says that we’re going to

bottom at the 36 000 range

and it’s going to be around february

14th where we’ll have a bounce back into

uh you know a retracement to us you know

fib level that we’re targeting and

that’s you know 618 to 702 which is a

fibonacci retracement mathematical

calculations that are used in financial

markets that you know all assets all

price markets kind of it’s a technical

level that they retrace to after they’ve

dropped but and then that’s where we’re

going to have that you know come to

jesus moment with bitcoin and crypto are

we going to continue on from there and

back into a bull market or are we going

to roll back over into a longer more

sustained bear market and see even more

downside and potentially break some of

those lows that we set june july and

test the 2017-2018 peak of 20 000. so

that’s a thesis based on that death

cross sure and i said if this holds up

that’s where we’re going to hit well we

you know um wicked down to about 33 000

but we closed you know bitcoin closed at

36 on that day

or you know within a few days after that

and we’ve held that 35 to 36 000 level

so it looks like the theory is holding

up and there’s a few other

uh people out there analysts that have

been kind of finding cons confluence

with this you know early to mid february

time frame looking for a bounce

so um here within the next two weeks

we’re going to know whether or not this

is going to hold up

and now

what would invalidate all this if it

just turned and just dropped you know

below that 33 000

wick low that the price wicked down to

um which was basically just taking out

stops right it was just it was just a

liquidity hunt when it went down to that

33 000 level the closing is what i’m

talking about that’s what’s important

okay so if we start closing below 35 000

that will invalidate everything and

you know we’ll just have to re reassess

and see what’s going on there but right

now it looks like the thesis is holding

up and it’ll be interesting to see

uh if it does hold up and it does pivot

and go back into that retracement and

that could see bitcoin get back up into

the 50 000 range

for that retracement depending on where

the low is at the time before it would

roll over and go back back into a more

sustained bear market more you know

testing some of those prior cycle lows

uh but if it breaks through those

fibonacci levels which are technical

levels based on algorithmic um you know

trading uh formulas that the hedge funds

investment funds and investors use out

there if it breaks through that then we

could just you know be in for a new

all-time high and i did a video on that

the other day and you know where that

would take us and that that would be a

70 to 80 000 target you know before

another little drop and then go back and

see if you can go a little higher kind

of repeating that cycle sure now the

other thing that would invalidate this

would be crisis around the world if

russia invades and that becomes a

serious issue uh if another little

bombshell is dropped in the market

somehow if coronavirus rears its ugly

head again those things are all you know

things that could invalidate stuff black

swan events not so much black swan but

crisis type events that you just can’t

you know foresee but uh yeah it’s

interesting and it seems to be holding

holding the pattern right now so we’ll

see what happens yeah it’s funny that

video of yours had a lot of video views

again i’m not a crypto guy got one

percent as an insurance as you know

and um but i look through the comments

crypto’s a space i have not played in

but man i spent a lot of time in those

comments and

it’s it’s a different world uh but what

i took from it is a lot of people who

are giving you credit for that 36 call

so congratulations i actually had a

couple questions about crypto we’re not

going to talk bitcoin ethereum or any

coins i’m going to talk about crypto the

market

yeah and on the comments so i want to

clear one thing up right now i get a lot

of comments you and me both people are

like oh you boomers back

i’m not a boomer i’m not a boomer i

missed the cut off by three years so

you know i’m sorry if uh you know if

that hurts hurt your feelings out there

yeah i am not a boomer i don’t want

anything

i’m a gen xer baby me too man gen x all

the way hey um again crypto market all

coins

all of them

so i i had a buddy of mine i’ve talked

about many times that came to me in the

first run up wearing this little fob

around his neck whatever that was all

excited so i poked it crypto a little

bit ran away because it was it seemed

all smoke and mirrors i come back i put

some some money in as a hedge but i want

to talk about what i learned researching

it before i put in my insurance policy

one is there was a general belief

that crypto was a hedge of inflation

right if the dollar weakens or you know

the dollar the fiat currency that uh

crypto would you know uh be a protection

against that

also there was kind of in the same vein

it was a non-correlated acid

first and foremost those two things i

think

while i read them a lot while people

were pushing them

at least as i stand here right now to me

it’s like those both are wrong

inflation is raging

not working and it’s certainly not

non-correlated it is just as correlated

as anything so what do you think about

those two things am i missing anything

no i mean so bitcoin has gone through a

transition it was created initially as a

new form of currency you know

peer-to-peer transfer of value around

the world permissionless

no need for third parties individual

banking that’s what it was created for

in the problem it was trying to solve

okay so what what you know ended up

happening as we’ve gone along is it’s

become you know basically a speculative

asset and a lot of people ignored that

um aspect of it because there is you

know a group and a narrative out there

of bitcoin maximalism that you know

believes it’s going to be the world’s

reserve currency and that you know

there’s not going to be any fiat

currency or money anymore it’s all going

to be bitcoin oh wow bitcoin standard so

there there is a belief and a philosophy

out there that follows that and that’s

where a lot of this comes from is that

narrative and i think what everybody has

seen is especially

you know it was much more retail driven

prior to 2017-2018

even in 2017-2018 now it’s more

institutional driven the biggest money

in the game now are institutional

investors there still is some retail

participation but the money that’s in

there with institutional funds kind of

dwarfs that yeah uh you know as far as

driving price action and things like

that so it’s very different space now

it’s not retail driven it’s

institutional driven now if you want to

say store up value which is the argument

of a hedge against inflation okay it has

for people that invested prior to these

two cycles the problem is 70 of the

people that are in the space now and

that own got in in the last year so they

got into the tops and that tends to be

what happens with retail retail tends to

buy the top and sell the bottom so a lot

of people that have recently gotten into

space have gotten in it at the top so to

them it’s not a hedge against inflation

it’s not a store of value and it’s a bad

investment okay um

right now and you know if it hits a

hundred thousand if it hits two hundred

thousand then that conversation is

different and that’s the argument that

people make is oh well we’re talking

long term okay we’re you can’t look at

bitcoin by the day by the week yeah zoom

out you have to zoom out you have to

look five ten years because the history

is correct it’s gone up it’s always gone

up it draws down 80 but it comes back

draws down 70 comes back so right now

this is the least uh dramatic drawdown

that bitcoin has seen in its history

given a correction that we’ve had now

it’ll draw 50 here and there but

generally in a bear market it draws all

the way back to 70 80 percent before it

rebounds and comes back

and it’ll have some bounces along the

way but ultimately we’ll bottom and we

don’t know if it will or if it won’t

right now we’re waiting to see how the

cycles play out so

when you look at long term people that

got in you know prior to the run-up

um

you know of 2021 after the march bottom

um if anybody got in you know even if

you’re in at 20 000 at the peak in 2018

and you wrote it down and wrote it back

up you’re still in good shape you’re

only up a little bit but you’re still up

you know you’ve beat inflation over that

time period so so the argument is

correct depending on when you got in

and you know that’s that’s the

unfortunate part is for people that got

in at the top we don’t know

we don’t know nobody knows you know

where it’s going to go or how long it’s

going to last and you know whether or

not you know it becomes obsolete as a

technology or a thesis down the road i

mean we just don’t know we know

technologies get replaced all the time

bitcoin is a technology i mean that’s

what it is when you look at the price

cycle of bitcoin you’re looking at the

adoption curve of a technology that’s

what that is

so

you know there’s no guarantees i believe

in it i think there’s enough

network effect now there’s enough

institutional involvement that once we

get regulation once we get clear

guidance on what the space is going to

look like moving forward i think bitcoin

will stabilize it’ll continue to grow

and it will prove itself you know

ultimately as a digital goal i think it

is a better

investment

product than gold because of all the

attributes of bitcoin because it’s

instantly transferable you know you

don’t have to physically hold it store

it all those different things into you

know divisible you know

you can you know divide it up into

satoshi’s all these different you know

things that make bitcoin such a positive

thing i think it’s a great technology i

think it’s a great um solution for that

store of value

problem uh that we have and it’s you

know limited supply and all that but i

don’t mean i don’t think you know in the

near term that means it’s worth a

million dollars a coin either you know i

think

you know you need a lot more capital in

the space it needs a lot more of a

proven track record before it can reach

you know super super high levels and a

lot of people don’t agree with that and

nobody knows exactly where it’s going to

go up nobody knows exactly where it can

go down all we know is where it’s been

what it’s doing and you know

that’s what you have to look at let me

close out on the other point so that was

a great example of inflation and i i

agree with you right you zoom out

and you don’t look at where you got in i

i think that’s well said what about the

whole non-correlated asset because at

least over the last couple of years it

has been very correlated

uh and

it wasn’t supposed to be but maybe it

will be going forward because it is a

risk asset money chases it or is it just

that hey there was too much money

inflation was here

people put it in different places or

what do you think about non-correlated

no it’s it’s definitely correlated and

you can see that i mean it’ll it’ll you

know

derail here and there like the other day

the nasdaq was going i think down and

bitcoin was going up just very short

term

you know period of time and then you

have the dollar whenever the dollar’s up

bitcoin’s down whenever bitcoin’s down

the dollar is up you know vice versa so

you’re seeing that so yeah it’s

definitely correlated with you know

other financial markets and it’s because

the the biggest players in the space now

are institutional investors you know

bank investment banks um you know

investment funds hedge funds um very

small participation with you know

sovereign wealth funds life companies

insurance companies things like that um

you know endowments they’re dipping

their toe in some you know but we

haven’t seen you know the amount of

investable capital from that

yeah that’s 100 trillion dollars around

the world or more you know they could

potentially come into the space so even

if they contributed 10

you know you’re talking about a

significant amount of capital that could

flow into the space i mean

very small amounts of money have been

put into space by these larger investors

because they don’t trust it yet right

they’re waiting for regulations waiting

for

regulatory guidance and clarity around

the world so that they can be confident

and comfortable investing in the asset

they’re looking for more you know

stability you know with

with the um

gains that we’ve experienced come

volatility with a newer technology

that’s just the nature of the business

you know so or the nature of the beast

of a emerging technology so

um that’s kind of where we’re at now and

what’s needed uh but yeah it’s

definitely co-related because of the

recycling of capital right it’s like the

rotation of growth into cyclicals into

you know um

tech and all that same kind of thing

very cool it’s a tech stock i mean it’s

basically a tech stock yeah well again

folks uh greg has expertise that i do

not have he goes in areas that i do not

and one of them is obviously crypto he

made a wonderful call a couple of weeks

ago i suggest you check them out and

where do they go

gregdickerson.com all my input is there

youtube podcast go check it out thanks

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