Feb 3 Financial News: WARNING – Misery Index about to become popular again, Jan Jobs -400k OUCH

Video Closed Captioning:

it is thursday february 3rd

and yeah i got to admit ever since i got

the office thursdays are the one day

that’s a little rough for me

you see the dogs that i bring to the

office with me happy and sunny they

don’t really understand that hey dad’s

got to get going he’s got a 7 a.m live

to do so uh yeah a little bit early this

morning but that is okay we are here

because it’s the daily financial news

and of course at 7 30 we talked to one

of your favorite experts of the week mr

jonathan twomley so look forward to that

conversation we actually have several

discussions today including the three

amigos which is a fan favorite again one

rental at a time is a different channel

because it is just not me it is eight or

nine millionaires talking to you about

all things that are going on in their

business the economy and things of that

nature so

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first we must congratulate three people

that did the work

here we go

sujit nice job

darius nice job

and pj nice job folks if you don’t know

what these is these are like my tickets

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time is helped i’m on a mission to help

a million people get their first or next

rental property on the way to that we

started with a goal of 500 in a year

and what we’re going to do then is we’re

going to give a big check to a food bank

we’re going to do something crazy like

dye my hair purple and a few other

things

but yes be a part of this subscribe like

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good good time uh again pj sujit and

darius your cards will go out shortly

well folks

i was right again i’ve kind of indicated

for the last three or four months that i

was very nervous about q1 we are now

seeing more and more analyst firms kind

of lower expectations for q1 i want to

be very clear i think what we are about

to hear in the next 30 days

is something from the 70s and 80s we’re

talking jimmy carter era if you’re too

young to know who jimmy carter was

he was a one-term president uh that was

kind of at the chair when uh inflation

and unemployment were running rampant

folks there was this index it doesn’t me

bring me any joy to talk about it but

there was an index called

the misery index

kind of an ominous title but one we are

going to have to pay attention to

the misery index is actually rather

simple it is a mathematical equation it

is simply the unemployment rate

plus

cpi

and normally in normal times the misery

index is below 10

in normal times for example in january

1975 the misery index got all the way up

to 19.9

it peaked in june 1980 at 22

and as of april 2020 that was when the

economy shut down and employment

skyrocketed it went to a high of 15.

one sec i’m gonna pick up sonny

hey sonny

sonny really doesn’t understand what i’m

doing here in the corner talking to you

and talking to the camera so

say hi to everybody sonny all right

sorry about that

but what are you gonna do it’s live so

again talking about the misery index

uh april of um

2020.

it was made up of

14.7 percent unemployment and only 0.3

inflation

again the misery index can go higher

either on unemployment or inflation or a

lot of the late 70s and early 80s

both

and that is what we are about to go

through so

pay attention it’s going to be talked

about we’re bringing it here first

it is uh

it’s one of those index

that once it gets quoted on you know the

talking heads on tv it will be quoted

everywhere it’s actually something

that’s been tracked you can look it up

misery index for other countries there

are some folks with misery index over a

hundred that’s kind of frightening

so again it’s annual inflation think cpi

plus unemployment so again this will be

something we talk about a lot

those of you asking about happy happy is

a good girl she is asleep under my desk

sonny’s the ones like what are you doing

over there in the corner

i don’t know if you saw this i’m sure

you did facebook or meta

had an ugly

ugly report

talking about uh

you know subscriber uh

attrition uh uh ad revenue just all

kinds of nasty things including uh

inflation in supply chain issues cutting

ad spend

yeah not good i wonder if that’s going

to hit twitter i think twitter reports

next week

one would think but basically

advertisers are backing away on top of

that facebook users especially the young

crowd not coming back they are going

elsewhere

facebook is uh in in some trouble

uh and also i wrote this down somewhere

meta

reality labs this is metaverse

lost 10

billion dollars in 2021. this is likely

to be expected this is all startup

capital

but still that is a big number 10

billion dollars

and again

it likely shows why facebook is one of

the only companies that can really

tackle laying the groundwork for the

metaverse

uh i think i have an interview with dion

from dion talk talking about virtual

real estate coming out today it was an

eye-opening discussion so shout out dion

for that

but again lots of things going on not

only did facebook disappoint but spotify

disappointed

slow down in premium subscriptions

subscriptions excuse me a la netflix

folks this is all telling a story

consumers are retreating frankly

worldwide consumers are retreating

remember our conversation about

starbucks yesterday remember starbucks

90 days ago

i think from memory they were china

china was down 14 same store sales i

think 14 or 15 i think 14.

the consumers are getting

nervous january jobs number tomorrow

seems to keep going down and down the

low guess now

negative 400 000. we’re no longer

talking plus 200 plus 150 we now have

pnc

saying negative 400. so let’s do an over

under on 400 000

job loss in the month of january

who’s going to take the

over god i hope it’s the over i really

do

negative 400 oh

okay i’ll take the over i’ll take oh do

i want no i don’t want the

[Music]

i’ll take the over negative 400 000 uh

who’s gonna go under 400 wow we got a

500 000 guests already that’s amazing

folks we’ll see we’ll know in about 24

hours

buckle up it’s going to be interesting

paypal paypal obviously came out the day

before

but they’re actually high paypal paypal

highlighting inflation

it is bringing down consumer spending

wow i’m glad i talked about uh q1 being

weak right we talked about the the

caffeine high from q4 with suppliers we

talked about consumers retreating

yeah q1 i think q1 is going to be

negative gdp

it is and i think i’m going to talk

about that with jonathan twomley here at

uh 7 30.

i now again go back to the fact that

stegflation may be the best we can hope

for with the worst being a recession

not good been reading some articles

about milton friedman if you don’t know

who he is he is a nobel prize winning

economist

and milton friedman is

very clear

milton friedman basically says inflation

is always a monetary

problem

basically too much money chasing too few

goods

so if you want to beat inflation there’s

only one way to do it you have to

constrict

the money monetary policy

he actually called it constrictive you

have to have constrictive monetary

policy i didn’t even know that was a

word i had to look it up to make sure

that wikipedia wasn’t uh

tricking me constrictive monetary policy

my conversation with jason hartman which

we have another video coming out i think

at nine o’clock today was amazing he and

i disagree

he thinks the fed is a cheap suit

i think they’re going to come out strong

but probably relent we will see in very

short order

but the reason this is important is

because it’s all about as jason says the

cost of money

the cost of money makes the system go

right now essentially the cost of money

has been nothing

so we have seen stupid lending

stupid businesses continue

we need a cleansing and i’m not sure

that jerome powell and the fed has the

backbone to do it but again if you want

to beat inflation we need a recession

again remember i’m not negative i try to

be realistic and i want to remind you

that a recession is good

a recession is good it’s a cleansing

it’s sort of like taking out the

underbrush of a forest

also let’s not forget that recessions

are times to get rich

because you can take advantage because

you’re watching one rental at a time

you’re doing the work you’re living

below your means you know your you know

your freedom number all these things

that we talk about

you’re gonna pounce

your average deal that used to be eight

will suddenly be 10 and you’ll get a

couple

i’m ecstatic by what’s coming

but you’ve got to do the work if you

don’t know what i’m talking about either

get the money right course below or how

i got started one rental at a time join

the facebook group

it’s it’s really really simple

uh morgan stanley out with a note to

private clients yesterday somebody

shared it with me shout out you know who

you are that sent it to me they are

telling their private clients we’re

talking

deca millionaires that’s 10 in case

you’re wondering

10 million bucks to be on this list they

basically sent out a short note that was

full of cover your ass stuff

basically said hunker down for a couple

months we don’t know what’s coming

and i thought that was uh really good

because i’ve been telling you that for

like 90 days so shout out morgan stanley

watching the channel

russia invades ukraine what happens if

russia invades ukraine what happens

commodities move

the dollar moves rates move

basically fear takes over it will be

sudden it will be abrupt

then it will go down to loss of life

destruction

are we dragged into something bigger

but simply the invasion crossing the

border commodities up dollar up rates

down stock market down

it’s this is this is where we are at and

not not only in the us but in russia as

well russia russia’s economy would take

a hit for this

unemployment claims it is thursday

finally a good number came in at 2 38 we

were on a bad trend for a couple of

weeks

but yeah 238 slightly less than the

expectation of 245

bank of england raised rates again the

first time that they did back-to-back

raises since 2004 and oh by the way bank

of england is expecting inflation to top

out at

7.25 percent today it’s in the fives so

they still expect this to peak they

expect april to be the peak and then

finally if you are a self-employed

borrower

finally some good news for you

fhfa has dropped

all of the extra paperwork required for

self-employed borrowers

income statements financials for the

current year they’ve dropped those

i spoke to matt the mortgage guy and

steven dow yesterday basically what this

means self-employed borrowers on a scale

of one to ten used to be 9.5 right it

was very very very very very very hard

with this dropping it’s probably

somewhere in the seven so it’s not easy

but it’s less hard if you know what i

mean so again if you’re a self-employed

borrower and you are looking to get a

loan on buying a home reach out to matt

the mortgage guy i think it’s greater

great i think it’s

greatmortgagebroker.com if not go back

watch this playlist

remember i have playlists with all these

amazing experts matt the mortgage guy

anna jonathan omar greg all of these

wonderful individuals dion matt the

lumberjack it’s just we are here for you

find your favorite most of them have

over a hundred of hours of material

nobody’s gonna watch all of them i am

not confused that’s why i spend a lot of

time making the titles work so again

find titles that make sense to you enjoy

the videos we do five videos a day at

one rental at a time because we are

trying to help you get started make the

next move avoid mistakes

and just have some fun together all

right take care of yourself have a

wonderful day i’m going to look forward

to talking to jonathan in about i don’t

know 15 minutes or so bye bye

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