Video Closed Captioning:
it is thursday february 3rd
and yeah i got to admit ever since i got
the office thursdays are the one day
that’s a little rough for me
you see the dogs that i bring to the
office with me happy and sunny they
don’t really understand that hey dad’s
got to get going he’s got a 7 a.m live
to do so uh yeah a little bit early this
morning but that is okay we are here
because it’s the daily financial news
and of course at 7 30 we talked to one
of your favorite experts of the week mr
jonathan twomley so look forward to that
conversation we actually have several
discussions today including the three
amigos which is a fan favorite again one
rental at a time is a different channel
because it is just not me it is eight or
nine millionaires talking to you about
all things that are going on in their
business the economy and things of that
nature so
like subscribe comment and of course
again subscribe to the channel i’d like
to see if we can’t get over to 25 new
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subscribed yet hit subscribe let’s see
if we can get 25 new subscribers today
because again
you gotta like the sign right anyways
first we must congratulate three people
that did the work
here we go
sujit nice job
darius nice job
and pj nice job folks if you don’t know
what these is these are like my tickets
to count how many people one rental at a
time is helped i’m on a mission to help
a million people get their first or next
rental property on the way to that we
started with a goal of 500 in a year
and what we’re going to do then is we’re
going to give a big check to a food bank
we’re going to do something crazy like
dye my hair purple and a few other
things
but yes be a part of this subscribe like
comment share articles let’s just have a
good good time uh again pj sujit and
darius your cards will go out shortly
well folks
i was right again i’ve kind of indicated
for the last three or four months that i
was very nervous about q1 we are now
seeing more and more analyst firms kind
of lower expectations for q1 i want to
be very clear i think what we are about
to hear in the next 30 days
is something from the 70s and 80s we’re
talking jimmy carter era if you’re too
young to know who jimmy carter was
he was a one-term president uh that was
kind of at the chair when uh inflation
and unemployment were running rampant
folks there was this index it doesn’t me
bring me any joy to talk about it but
there was an index called
the misery index
kind of an ominous title but one we are
going to have to pay attention to
the misery index is actually rather
simple it is a mathematical equation it
is simply the unemployment rate
plus
cpi
and normally in normal times the misery
index is below 10
in normal times for example in january
1975 the misery index got all the way up
to 19.9
it peaked in june 1980 at 22
and as of april 2020 that was when the
economy shut down and employment
skyrocketed it went to a high of 15.
one sec i’m gonna pick up sonny
hey sonny
sonny really doesn’t understand what i’m
doing here in the corner talking to you
and talking to the camera so
say hi to everybody sonny all right
sorry about that
but what are you gonna do it’s live so
again talking about the misery index
uh april of um
2020.
it was made up of
14.7 percent unemployment and only 0.3
inflation
again the misery index can go higher
either on unemployment or inflation or a
lot of the late 70s and early 80s
both
and that is what we are about to go
through so
pay attention it’s going to be talked
about we’re bringing it here first
it is uh
it’s one of those index
that once it gets quoted on you know the
talking heads on tv it will be quoted
everywhere it’s actually something
that’s been tracked you can look it up
misery index for other countries there
are some folks with misery index over a
hundred that’s kind of frightening
so again it’s annual inflation think cpi
plus unemployment so again this will be
something we talk about a lot
those of you asking about happy happy is
a good girl she is asleep under my desk
sonny’s the ones like what are you doing
over there in the corner
i don’t know if you saw this i’m sure
you did facebook or meta
had an ugly
ugly report
talking about uh
you know subscriber uh
attrition uh uh ad revenue just all
kinds of nasty things including uh
inflation in supply chain issues cutting
ad spend
yeah not good i wonder if that’s going
to hit twitter i think twitter reports
next week
one would think but basically
advertisers are backing away on top of
that facebook users especially the young
crowd not coming back they are going
elsewhere
facebook is uh in in some trouble
uh and also i wrote this down somewhere
meta
reality labs this is metaverse
lost 10
billion dollars in 2021. this is likely
to be expected this is all startup
capital
but still that is a big number 10
billion dollars
and again
it likely shows why facebook is one of
the only companies that can really
tackle laying the groundwork for the
metaverse
uh i think i have an interview with dion
from dion talk talking about virtual
real estate coming out today it was an
eye-opening discussion so shout out dion
for that
but again lots of things going on not
only did facebook disappoint but spotify
disappointed
slow down in premium subscriptions
subscriptions excuse me a la netflix
folks this is all telling a story
consumers are retreating frankly
worldwide consumers are retreating
remember our conversation about
starbucks yesterday remember starbucks
90 days ago
i think from memory they were china
china was down 14 same store sales i
think 14 or 15 i think 14.
the consumers are getting
nervous january jobs number tomorrow
seems to keep going down and down the
low guess now
negative 400 000. we’re no longer
talking plus 200 plus 150 we now have
pnc
saying negative 400. so let’s do an over
under on 400 000
job loss in the month of january
who’s going to take the
over god i hope it’s the over i really
do
negative 400 oh
okay i’ll take the over i’ll take oh do
i want no i don’t want the
[Music]
i’ll take the over negative 400 000 uh
who’s gonna go under 400 wow we got a
500 000 guests already that’s amazing
folks we’ll see we’ll know in about 24
hours
buckle up it’s going to be interesting
paypal paypal obviously came out the day
before
but they’re actually high paypal paypal
highlighting inflation
it is bringing down consumer spending
wow i’m glad i talked about uh q1 being
weak right we talked about the the
caffeine high from q4 with suppliers we
talked about consumers retreating
yeah q1 i think q1 is going to be
negative gdp
it is and i think i’m going to talk
about that with jonathan twomley here at
uh 7 30.
i now again go back to the fact that
stegflation may be the best we can hope
for with the worst being a recession
not good been reading some articles
about milton friedman if you don’t know
who he is he is a nobel prize winning
economist
and milton friedman is
very clear
milton friedman basically says inflation
is always a monetary
problem
basically too much money chasing too few
goods
so if you want to beat inflation there’s
only one way to do it you have to
constrict
the money monetary policy
he actually called it constrictive you
have to have constrictive monetary
policy i didn’t even know that was a
word i had to look it up to make sure
that wikipedia wasn’t uh
tricking me constrictive monetary policy
my conversation with jason hartman which
we have another video coming out i think
at nine o’clock today was amazing he and
i disagree
he thinks the fed is a cheap suit
i think they’re going to come out strong
but probably relent we will see in very
short order
but the reason this is important is
because it’s all about as jason says the
cost of money
the cost of money makes the system go
right now essentially the cost of money
has been nothing
so we have seen stupid lending
stupid businesses continue
we need a cleansing and i’m not sure
that jerome powell and the fed has the
backbone to do it but again if you want
to beat inflation we need a recession
again remember i’m not negative i try to
be realistic and i want to remind you
that a recession is good
a recession is good it’s a cleansing
it’s sort of like taking out the
underbrush of a forest
also let’s not forget that recessions
are times to get rich
because you can take advantage because
you’re watching one rental at a time
you’re doing the work you’re living
below your means you know your you know
your freedom number all these things
that we talk about
you’re gonna pounce
your average deal that used to be eight
will suddenly be 10 and you’ll get a
couple
i’m ecstatic by what’s coming
but you’ve got to do the work if you
don’t know what i’m talking about either
get the money right course below or how
i got started one rental at a time join
the facebook group
it’s it’s really really simple
uh morgan stanley out with a note to
private clients yesterday somebody
shared it with me shout out you know who
you are that sent it to me they are
telling their private clients we’re
talking
deca millionaires that’s 10 in case
you’re wondering
10 million bucks to be on this list they
basically sent out a short note that was
full of cover your ass stuff
basically said hunker down for a couple
months we don’t know what’s coming
and i thought that was uh really good
because i’ve been telling you that for
like 90 days so shout out morgan stanley
watching the channel
russia invades ukraine what happens if
russia invades ukraine what happens
commodities move
the dollar moves rates move
basically fear takes over it will be
sudden it will be abrupt
then it will go down to loss of life
destruction
are we dragged into something bigger
but simply the invasion crossing the
border commodities up dollar up rates
down stock market down
it’s this is this is where we are at and
not not only in the us but in russia as
well russia russia’s economy would take
a hit for this
unemployment claims it is thursday
finally a good number came in at 2 38 we
were on a bad trend for a couple of
weeks
but yeah 238 slightly less than the
expectation of 245
bank of england raised rates again the
first time that they did back-to-back
raises since 2004 and oh by the way bank
of england is expecting inflation to top
out at
7.25 percent today it’s in the fives so
they still expect this to peak they
expect april to be the peak and then
finally if you are a self-employed
borrower
finally some good news for you
fhfa has dropped
all of the extra paperwork required for
self-employed borrowers
income statements financials for the
current year they’ve dropped those
i spoke to matt the mortgage guy and
steven dow yesterday basically what this
means self-employed borrowers on a scale
of one to ten used to be 9.5 right it
was very very very very very very hard
with this dropping it’s probably
somewhere in the seven so it’s not easy
but it’s less hard if you know what i
mean so again if you’re a self-employed
borrower and you are looking to get a
loan on buying a home reach out to matt
the mortgage guy i think it’s greater
great i think it’s
greatmortgagebroker.com if not go back
watch this playlist
remember i have playlists with all these
amazing experts matt the mortgage guy
anna jonathan omar greg all of these
wonderful individuals dion matt the
lumberjack it’s just we are here for you
find your favorite most of them have
over a hundred of hours of material
nobody’s gonna watch all of them i am
not confused that’s why i spend a lot of
time making the titles work so again
find titles that make sense to you enjoy
the videos we do five videos a day at
one rental at a time because we are
trying to help you get started make the
next move avoid mistakes
and just have some fun together all
right take care of yourself have a
wonderful day i’m going to look forward
to talking to jonathan in about i don’t
know 15 minutes or so bye bye