FACT: Anyone Making Crash Predictions of 30%+ a Year in Your Market Because of Graphs is Dangerous

Video Closed Captioning:

good morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael’s number one rental time

back with his good friend matt the

lumberjack landlord how you doing sir

i’m super ready to do this video mike do

not

decide not to air this video

[Laughter]

you got it this video is going up no

matter what happens in the next 10

minutes i’m a little bit nervous i’m a

little bit nervous so let’s set this one

up

uh you and i text all the time uh

generally speaking you’re not texting me

at midnight your time nine o’clock my

time

you did that last night i’m like oh [ __ ]

what’s going on uh apparently uh your

favorite uh content creator who’s in his

mom’s basement looking at pretty charts

was doing a live stream with thousands

of people

watching

as he once again told you why every

market is going to crash crash crash

crash and did we say crash crash crash

so

i told you that we would talk about it

today and uh now is the time what uh

what did you see in this crash crash

crash video

like

what is this guy doing

i’m watching the v and like so i’m like

flipping through my youtube and i

watched um i watched you with uh

dickerson um and so that was great and i

watched one of those videos and then

he

comes up in my feed

yeah defiling my feed with a live stream

and i was like

i literally said out loud i said i

shouldn’t do this i shouldn’t do it

actually goes what and i go

i shouldn’t i gotta do this i click on

the button

what a mistake that was i’m screaming at

my phone i’m fat finger typing look at

the size of my hands

they’re huge

they’re not meant for these tiny little

numbers and things on the phone they’re

huge

i’m hammering away at the thing and i’m

just like what are you talking about

that’s not even right

he’s talking about all these graphs

about demographic outflows and number of

number of building permits based and the

number of actual houses needed and i’m

like i’m waiting for him to talk about

the other side of the equation

forty percent more money supply than

there ever has been in history hey dummy

that’s gonna do that to every single

chart everyone’s gonna look like this

like every other chart does so i’m

sitting there i’m actually apoplectic

and i’m answering in the feed

and meanwhile i’m getting even more

angry because no one’s doing the work

everybody’s just like tell me about my

market here’s five bucks

i say something and one of his guys

jumps on and goes

if you want to know about your market

pay him five bucks i go i don’t i

no i’m literally stuttering typing it

out i’m like i don’t need him to tell me

what’s going on in my market i know

exactly where he’s getting the data i

don’t need his help

ps by the way on the deal that i just

closed last week

nine offers

nine

not crashing all of them overpriced

every single one of them and then he’s

like well you know investors are really

going to be in trouble in this market

like i wouldn’t buy now

really tell me your story about all your

investment properties

oh that’s a short story

at the end of the day i want to be there

to help people yeah the guy had mike

and i am more than happy to dump on

myself

he had more people in the live stream

than i have subscribers on my channel

that is that’s wrong

yeah more people on the live stream than

i have subscribers on my channel am i

jealous no not at all but is it

fascinating to me the human dynamic

i’m bringing value i’m telling people

here’s all of the information how it

fits and how an investor like me is

making money in today’s market

he is charging you five bucks to tell

you what the picture says yeah

sucka like

yeah an incomplete picture again i i

love this guy because he’s he’s he’s

talking about austin texas

i know nothing about austin texas but

you know what i’ve been doing this a

while i got friends everywhere so i

called a buddy who’s in austin texas

that’s his market like fresno is mine in

new hampshire’s dover is yours right oh

by the way if you want to know about a

market don’t ask some jackass in his

basement looking at pretty charts talk

to somebody who is betting millions

millions of dollars in the market so i

called him

i’m like hey buddy did you see uh

so-and-so is uh saying austin’s gonna

crash because it’s it’s up a lot

and he just he’s he just

he just just laughed out loud he’s like

this guy doesn’t understand

our population of austin austin texas is

really small g it’s not dallas or plano

no it’s austin it’s like

our population in 24 months is up 25

right because of tesla and because of

this and because of that our average

income is up 15 to 18 depending on who

you talk to yes yep

we can’t build enough houses

our our occupancy and apartments are 99

99.8

right right record highs

and rents are increasing we need more

housing but here’s the deal people can

move here faster than we can build stuff

this is not slowing down anybody who

thinks austin is going to crash because

of some stupid-ass chart isn’t paying

attention could it flatten out yeah

we’ve sucked in a lot of appreciation

but there’s a difference between a

slowdown and a crash there is no reason

for austin texas to go up 30

again

right but could it go up 13 yep maybe

look one of the things he was talking

about too is he was saying atlanta is

going to crash oh but atlanta is going

to crash 20 30 because mike here’s his

rationale because there’s more investors

buying home than people

and i said

i’m i literally i typed into it i typed

into the answer i said

any investor that’s buying a home

a real estate investor is buying that

home and renting it out because there is

demand yes the highest risk adjusted

return is in single-family home

ownership you idiot why don’t you think

there’s a reason for that and oh by the

way rent is going to be the highest uh

accelerating thing going forward because

prices go first events go second

there is here i’ll just say it right now

barring a war

on american soil

there is no chance that there’s a real

estate market that crashes 30 percent

next year

agreed

how would it happen real estate doesn’t

move that fast right it does it

it doesn’t move that fast he was

literally going market by market and

he’s like yeah this one’s kind of you

know flat market blah blah blah listen

you have to take all things into account

appreciation up like this means nothing

when you take it in the when you put it

in a vacuum yeah when you recognize that

40 of the cash that we’ve ever printed

was in the last 18 months

that’s what’s going to cause inflation

and everything going up to the right

that’s what it does the other thing i

hate about him is is it’s very clear

that he he’s driven by price i can’t

tell you how many times he said that la

or

bay area is going to crash because of

the price he’s pricing he’s going to

crash it doesn’t price price doesn’t

mean

buckets agreed it’s payment it’s income

it’s it’s all these other facts when you

look at a chart and say we are above

2006 and thus it must fall you are a

[ __ ] and if you’re looking at graphs to

justify where we are today and where

we’re going to be in the future

because things are getting so hot

inflation’s only just begun oh we’re 9.6

today enjoy this ride number one number

two is yeah investors are buying homes

not to flip them they’re buying them to

rent them out i’m not holding i’m not

selling anything next year right but the

other crazy thing is is even if you were

like i mean the numbers that i’m hearing

in some of these different areas like

tampa and austin and these places

the numbers are nuts but i know what the

people are doing with it they’re buying

it because they’re looking for an asset

where they get x percent return yeah

cheap debt

cheap like legendary debt in an

inflationary environment there is only

one group of people that like inflation

it’s landlords exactly

like and the funny thing is it’s like

and the the funny part is is we’ll take

inflation yeah but we don’t necessarily

love it like deflation for us is almost

all is awesome because we’ll go buy a

bunch more because we’re always prepared

to keep keep keep money dry to get

buying more stuff but mike i was so and

there’s this one guy he’s just like

i made a cup he made a couple comments

she’s like what’s your answer for that

and i go okay you’re you’re up now you

asked for it

and i was like and then like every 15 20

i was like where are you where are you

carl where’d you go carl i’d love an

answer carl

and then at the end of it i actually

said i will i will bet you a thousand

dollars

i will i will offer you a thousand

dollars to come and debate me on these

topics because your data is incomplete

well he’s hurting he’s just hurting

people

he is mike you have people on your

channel that say they listening to him

they paused they didn’t buy you lost 23

appreciation hope it was worth it and

lifetime low rates because the rates you

got last year

you’ll never touch those rates here

again i offered him a thousand dollars

to debate me

and i said the money can go wherever you

want if you need it because you’re

charging people five bucks to tell them

about their market

you can have it but that’s fine but i

offer them a thousand bucks and i said i

said but let’s take this offline and

discuss i’m still waiting for him to

reach back out to me because honestly i

want to have the conversation because

what he’s doing and what he’s putting

out there is hurting people i just want

to give them the rest of the data

and then if they want to buy buy if you

don’t want to buy don’t buy it might be

informed

yeah my jobs are trying to help people

so before you’re taking the sky is

falling the sky is falling boy like

every single market that he went to when

you saw the up mark of 20 he’s like yeah

they’re gonna crash

that’s not how it works my man that’s

just not how it works you’re factually

wrong even if you’re looking at trends

over the last 30 years you are wrong

because the 40 cash flow in the market

and the inflation is what’s a large part

of that price appreciation that’s most

of it mike take out inflation

take out the low rates how much of

things actually increased in price yeah

not that much not that much it’s mostly

inflation-based and payment based

just do the work yourself again

as we said in video number one today i

won’t tell you what a good market is

that’s not my job i don’t know your

market i will not spend 60 days of my

life learning your market and i won’t be

arrogant enough to think i can look at

three charts and tell you about your

market that’s right that is

the arrogance it takes to think you can

look at three or four charts and know

every market across the country is

beyond

it

oh

zillow exactly exactly that’s what it

does so they’re all dumping on zillow

last night i got news for you they were

all dumping on zillow did zillow have

any trouble offloading 2 000 homes with

one swipe of a pen nope nope and did

they lost somebody lost but they locked

in their losses when they bought they

didn’t lock on their losses when they

sold they locked in their losses when

they bought because their option was to

always sell they were never ever ever

going to be landlords yeah

it’s crazy well do me a favor how can

people follow you and really understand

what’s going on lumberjack landlord on

youtube the next ceo of zillow

um and uh my live stream 11 30 a.m

eastern time lumberjack landlord on

youtube and 8 p.m eastern time this

thursday mr and mrs lumberjack bring

your significant other ask your

questions we’ll hopefully try and help

them get on board with you based on

ashley’s story that’s going to be

awesome thanks buddy thanks mike

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