Video Closed Captioning:
good morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael’s number one rental time
back with his good friend matt the
lumberjack landlord how you doing sir
i’m super ready to do this video mike do
not
decide not to air this video
[Laughter]
you got it this video is going up no
matter what happens in the next 10
minutes i’m a little bit nervous i’m a
little bit nervous so let’s set this one
up
uh you and i text all the time uh
generally speaking you’re not texting me
at midnight your time nine o’clock my
time
you did that last night i’m like oh [ __ ]
what’s going on uh apparently uh your
favorite uh content creator who’s in his
mom’s basement looking at pretty charts
was doing a live stream with thousands
of people
watching
as he once again told you why every
market is going to crash crash crash
crash and did we say crash crash crash
so
i told you that we would talk about it
today and uh now is the time what uh
what did you see in this crash crash
crash video
like
what is this guy doing
i’m watching the v and like so i’m like
flipping through my youtube and i
watched um i watched you with uh
dickerson um and so that was great and i
watched one of those videos and then
he
comes up in my feed
yeah defiling my feed with a live stream
and i was like
i literally said out loud i said i
shouldn’t do this i shouldn’t do it
actually goes what and i go
i shouldn’t i gotta do this i click on
the button
what a mistake that was i’m screaming at
my phone i’m fat finger typing look at
the size of my hands
they’re huge
they’re not meant for these tiny little
numbers and things on the phone they’re
huge
i’m hammering away at the thing and i’m
just like what are you talking about
that’s not even right
he’s talking about all these graphs
about demographic outflows and number of
number of building permits based and the
number of actual houses needed and i’m
like i’m waiting for him to talk about
the other side of the equation
forty percent more money supply than
there ever has been in history hey dummy
that’s gonna do that to every single
chart everyone’s gonna look like this
like every other chart does so i’m
sitting there i’m actually apoplectic
and i’m answering in the feed
and meanwhile i’m getting even more
angry because no one’s doing the work
everybody’s just like tell me about my
market here’s five bucks
i say something and one of his guys
jumps on and goes
if you want to know about your market
pay him five bucks i go i don’t i
no i’m literally stuttering typing it
out i’m like i don’t need him to tell me
what’s going on in my market i know
exactly where he’s getting the data i
don’t need his help
ps by the way on the deal that i just
closed last week
nine offers
nine
not crashing all of them overpriced
every single one of them and then he’s
like well you know investors are really
going to be in trouble in this market
like i wouldn’t buy now
really tell me your story about all your
investment properties
oh that’s a short story
at the end of the day i want to be there
to help people yeah the guy had mike
and i am more than happy to dump on
myself
he had more people in the live stream
than i have subscribers on my channel
that is that’s wrong
yeah more people on the live stream than
i have subscribers on my channel am i
jealous no not at all but is it
fascinating to me the human dynamic
i’m bringing value i’m telling people
here’s all of the information how it
fits and how an investor like me is
making money in today’s market
he is charging you five bucks to tell
you what the picture says yeah
sucka like
yeah an incomplete picture again i i
love this guy because he’s he’s he’s
talking about austin texas
i know nothing about austin texas but
you know what i’ve been doing this a
while i got friends everywhere so i
called a buddy who’s in austin texas
that’s his market like fresno is mine in
new hampshire’s dover is yours right oh
by the way if you want to know about a
market don’t ask some jackass in his
basement looking at pretty charts talk
to somebody who is betting millions
millions of dollars in the market so i
called him
i’m like hey buddy did you see uh
so-and-so is uh saying austin’s gonna
crash because it’s it’s up a lot
and he just he’s he just
he just just laughed out loud he’s like
this guy doesn’t understand
our population of austin austin texas is
really small g it’s not dallas or plano
no it’s austin it’s like
our population in 24 months is up 25
right because of tesla and because of
this and because of that our average
income is up 15 to 18 depending on who
you talk to yes yep
we can’t build enough houses
our our occupancy and apartments are 99
99.8
right right record highs
and rents are increasing we need more
housing but here’s the deal people can
move here faster than we can build stuff
this is not slowing down anybody who
thinks austin is going to crash because
of some stupid-ass chart isn’t paying
attention could it flatten out yeah
we’ve sucked in a lot of appreciation
but there’s a difference between a
slowdown and a crash there is no reason
for austin texas to go up 30
again
right but could it go up 13 yep maybe
look one of the things he was talking
about too is he was saying atlanta is
going to crash oh but atlanta is going
to crash 20 30 because mike here’s his
rationale because there’s more investors
buying home than people
and i said
i’m i literally i typed into it i typed
into the answer i said
any investor that’s buying a home
a real estate investor is buying that
home and renting it out because there is
demand yes the highest risk adjusted
return is in single-family home
ownership you idiot why don’t you think
there’s a reason for that and oh by the
way rent is going to be the highest uh
accelerating thing going forward because
prices go first events go second
there is here i’ll just say it right now
barring a war
on american soil
there is no chance that there’s a real
estate market that crashes 30 percent
next year
agreed
how would it happen real estate doesn’t
move that fast right it does it
it doesn’t move that fast he was
literally going market by market and
he’s like yeah this one’s kind of you
know flat market blah blah blah listen
you have to take all things into account
appreciation up like this means nothing
when you take it in the when you put it
in a vacuum yeah when you recognize that
40 of the cash that we’ve ever printed
was in the last 18 months
that’s what’s going to cause inflation
and everything going up to the right
that’s what it does the other thing i
hate about him is is it’s very clear
that he he’s driven by price i can’t
tell you how many times he said that la
or
bay area is going to crash because of
the price he’s pricing he’s going to
crash it doesn’t price price doesn’t
mean
buckets agreed it’s payment it’s income
it’s it’s all these other facts when you
look at a chart and say we are above
2006 and thus it must fall you are a
[ __ ] and if you’re looking at graphs to
justify where we are today and where
we’re going to be in the future
because things are getting so hot
inflation’s only just begun oh we’re 9.6
today enjoy this ride number one number
two is yeah investors are buying homes
not to flip them they’re buying them to
rent them out i’m not holding i’m not
selling anything next year right but the
other crazy thing is is even if you were
like i mean the numbers that i’m hearing
in some of these different areas like
tampa and austin and these places
the numbers are nuts but i know what the
people are doing with it they’re buying
it because they’re looking for an asset
where they get x percent return yeah
cheap debt
cheap like legendary debt in an
inflationary environment there is only
one group of people that like inflation
it’s landlords exactly
like and the funny thing is it’s like
and the the funny part is is we’ll take
inflation yeah but we don’t necessarily
love it like deflation for us is almost
all is awesome because we’ll go buy a
bunch more because we’re always prepared
to keep keep keep money dry to get
buying more stuff but mike i was so and
there’s this one guy he’s just like
i made a cup he made a couple comments
she’s like what’s your answer for that
and i go okay you’re you’re up now you
asked for it
and i was like and then like every 15 20
i was like where are you where are you
carl where’d you go carl i’d love an
answer carl
and then at the end of it i actually
said i will i will bet you a thousand
dollars
i will i will offer you a thousand
dollars to come and debate me on these
topics because your data is incomplete
well he’s hurting he’s just hurting
people
he is mike you have people on your
channel that say they listening to him
they paused they didn’t buy you lost 23
appreciation hope it was worth it and
lifetime low rates because the rates you
got last year
you’ll never touch those rates here
again i offered him a thousand dollars
to debate me
and i said the money can go wherever you
want if you need it because you’re
charging people five bucks to tell them
about their market
you can have it but that’s fine but i
offer them a thousand bucks and i said i
said but let’s take this offline and
discuss i’m still waiting for him to
reach back out to me because honestly i
want to have the conversation because
what he’s doing and what he’s putting
out there is hurting people i just want
to give them the rest of the data
and then if they want to buy buy if you
don’t want to buy don’t buy it might be
informed
yeah my jobs are trying to help people
so before you’re taking the sky is
falling the sky is falling boy like
every single market that he went to when
you saw the up mark of 20 he’s like yeah
they’re gonna crash
that’s not how it works my man that’s
just not how it works you’re factually
wrong even if you’re looking at trends
over the last 30 years you are wrong
because the 40 cash flow in the market
and the inflation is what’s a large part
of that price appreciation that’s most
of it mike take out inflation
take out the low rates how much of
things actually increased in price yeah
not that much not that much it’s mostly
inflation-based and payment based
just do the work yourself again
as we said in video number one today i
won’t tell you what a good market is
that’s not my job i don’t know your
market i will not spend 60 days of my
life learning your market and i won’t be
arrogant enough to think i can look at
three charts and tell you about your
market that’s right that is
the arrogance it takes to think you can
look at three or four charts and know
every market across the country is
beyond
it
oh
zillow exactly exactly that’s what it
does so they’re all dumping on zillow
last night i got news for you they were
all dumping on zillow did zillow have
any trouble offloading 2 000 homes with
one swipe of a pen nope nope and did
they lost somebody lost but they locked
in their losses when they bought they
didn’t lock on their losses when they
sold they locked in their losses when
they bought because their option was to
always sell they were never ever ever
going to be landlords yeah
it’s crazy well do me a favor how can
people follow you and really understand
what’s going on lumberjack landlord on
youtube the next ceo of zillow
um and uh my live stream 11 30 a.m
eastern time lumberjack landlord on
youtube and 8 p.m eastern time this
thursday mr and mrs lumberjack bring
your significant other ask your
questions we’ll hopefully try and help
them get on board with you based on
ashley’s story that’s going to be
awesome thanks buddy thanks mike