Video Closed Captioning:
18th monday december 13th and this is
your daily financial news if you don’t
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7 30 a.m daily financial news live
then we start doing interviews on monday
entire list of interviewees is listed
below so when i look at the daily
financial news for this monday
kind of an interesting uh day because we
got a lot of stuff going on
um
now let’s start at the top so yesterday
evening i did something i haven’t done
in three years i created a live sunday
evening
normally if you normally i take most of
sunday off right we do an interview with
laura morby at 8 a.m i do my goals
and
community videos usually i’m done
recording by 9 30 and then that’s kind
of my day to relax but yesterday evening
i had to do it i had to do the math i
had to calculate actual cpi if you know
already we’ve talked for weeks now about
cpi being a
under reported number mainly because of
rent or rent equivalent so i went out
did some research figured out what part
of rent is in cpi it’s about 28
so i did the math i took the reported
6.8 backed out that calculation and then
added back in what the real
uh rent is and
cpi is 10 folks
can you imagine what would happen to the
market to the fed if they actually
reported the truth
now let’s be clear i’m not calling them
liars i’m just calling them they have a
bad approach they are using a legacy um
mechanism to count rent that they’ve
done for years because
10 10 years ago folks it was hard to
collect single family rent data because
there wasn’t invitation homes with 80
some odd thousand homes now it’s much
easier so if we do the math now
yes folks good and bad news cpi is 10
cpi is 10 and you know what i think the
fed knows that so on wednesday afternoon
we are going to look for jerome powell
to hopefully
turn into
uh paul volcker because he needs to get
ahead of this or as ed ellerian is
saying transitory was the worst fed call
ever
and they’ve had some doozies so again uh
ed ellerian is not letting powell off
the hook basically saying pow gets in
front of this now or we are all in
trouble so kind of very interesting so
again this wednesday
it is very clear that jerome powell
needs to turn hawkish
right they’re either doveish or hawkish
the question i have is he just going to
talk
or is he actually going to do something
i think he’s going to double maybe
surprise us and triple the taper we
shall see
my big thing is will powell get off his
butt and talk about interest rate rises
next year so far he has said no 2023.
he’s got to talk about interest rate
rises next year and later on what else
58
people are thinking about
uh interest rate rises as soon as may so
the market is spec expecting it this
channel right here has been talking
about it for a year
so yes we are going to have the first
interest rate rise by the summer i still
believe it will be half a percent
because i think the fed is going to be
late
the fed does not want to cause pain
here’s the deal you cause
short-term pain or more pain later
they don’t have a very good track record
so this uh
yeah i don’t have i don’t have very much
confidence in powell
next up reddit very interesting article
about
people are leaving expensive areas and
doing it for quality of life this
article happened to focus on san
francisco
uh this particular creative uh was
renting a 2 000
studio yes a 500 square foot studio in
san francisco for 2 000 bucks they
called it a hovel
sounds like doesn’t sound like fun
anyways they took their skills and moved
to a small town just north of portland
oregon and now they are living in a
three-bedroom home
for 1500 bucks a month and having a lot
more stuff going on so again
this is something i’ve actually reached
out to her i found her on linkedin i’m
going to try to an interview chrissy was
her name interview chrissy so we can
talk about that as well
getting more and more data on austin
texas austin texas is one of those
markets like boise and again here on
this channel we do the work i
interviewed the economist
for idaho a couple of months ago and now
we’re getting data on austin austin
texas
pretty small footprint right it’s a
pretty small city it’s not sprawling
like dallas if you will
rents are up 25
extra bedrooms which again if you’ve
watched any of my videos about where
rent come from bedrooms is the number
one thing
in austin an extra bedroom gets you the
landlord or you as the tenant pays
275 dollars
why this is interesting is pre-pandemic
it costs about 125. so again 275 what is
that a year
like 3 300 bucks so again normally i
could take a remember i talk about
buying two bedroom homes and creating
threes with a wall and closet
and a door obviously
again it usually cost me 25 to 3 000
bucks you get a payback in your first
year that is a huge winner if you are in
austin so if i was in austin one thing i
would look for is two bedroom one bath
or two bedroom one and a half bath homes
that are over 950 square feet then see
if you can create a third bedroom i
bought dozens of those uh in the last
crisis it is very very cool and the
reason austin is not going to slow down
his population i have yet to verify this
but it looks like population is up 25 in
the city of austin in just over two
years
wow you can simply not build enough
housing to keep up with a population run
like that thank you tesla and other tech
companies for going to austin
tuesday’s ppi comes out right we had cpi
last week producer price index
expectations for a big number 9.2
remember ppi is kind of a leading
indicator for cpi next month
because again you can adjust profit to
you know limit the impact
but again it’s still rising it’s still a
problem it was 8.6 in october and again
expectation in november is 9.2
also wednesday retail sales
retail sales is going to be interesting
because i have a different opinion
versus the
powers that be
the expectation is for only
0.8
uh
last month was a surprise at 1.4 which i
actually called thank you very much the
reason i called it is again
we have money right 1.2 or 1.3 trillion
in excess savings
the media is screaming at us about
shortages
we finally have a holiday season maybe
where we feel a little better
jobs are aplenty so people are spending
so i expect actually november to be
exceed
maybe not as high as october at 1.4 but
i do i am calling for one percent again
ahead of analyst expectations again for
a 0.8
retail sales are important
i follow the consumer
the consumer is
saying they’re nervous
right but it’s what are the consumers
doing
often the consumer said something but
they do something different i believe we
will see that on wednesday
back to
real estate crumbling crashing whatever
you want to call it
the china real estate market is behaving
exactly like i told you it would
first and foremost they have abandoned
projects everywhere nearly everywhere
their sales have plummeted 24
folks the real estate market in china is
in for a crash
price declines so far have been limited
but it’s only because they are doctoring
the numbers
the chinese government is mandating
people don’t cut prices
but instead they are giving other things
away buy this apartment and we’ll give
you a car buy this we’ll give you that
they’re they’re doctoring the numbers so
they don’t
run afoul of the government that will
not hold
when you see sales fall 24 percent it
will get worse
not good crash boom they are going to
have to explode bulldoze collapse
a lot of these projects
did you know this shocked me i’m still
learning about the chinese real estate
market
chinese citizens that live in the city
so this is not
you know suburbia or out in the fields
this is in the city propers
80 percent
80
of their wealth is in real estate
this is why real estate is in trouble
because if just ask yourself if you own
something
and suddenly you can’t get rid of it
it’s a it’s an alligator to steal a word
or image from my first book you are
going to retreat conserve more
importantly the next generation
is not going to buy
china real estate was built on decades
of positivity and wealth generation they
have just crushed that spirit
and it is only going to get worse
not good uh and oh by the way 40 percent
of evergrande projects are
idle folks eva grande is running out of
oxygen or blood or whatever your analogy
is
they’re done
two more things i found right before i
started this video it looks like hawaii
luxury sales are hitting records i mean
like
records
looks like hawaii luxury sales are up
600 percent
yes folks people are looking for those
vacation homes and places they can go it
is nuts nuts nuts and then finally we’ve
talked about the turkish lira a couple
of times they are suffering from massive
inflation and yet their president and
central bank or whatever they call them
are cutting rates
historically speaking that is the
reverse approach that is kind of the
anti-paul voker and lo and behold people
expect another interest rate cut and the
lira is plunging
folks if i lived there i would be doing
everything i could to get whatever i
owned into bitcoin or ethereum or
something when the central government
has no
uh what uh respect
for their currency
get out
get out
um
that is um
it is pretty sad to see what is going on
there people are people are really
getting hurt so again folks remember the
daily financial news is for you if you
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we’re going to talk to a
multi-millionaire here in about 11
minutes just for you so have a wonderful
day take care of yourself enjoy monday
bye