Video Closed Caption:
good morning good afternoon good evening
folks mike zuber one rental at a time
and we’ve brought back matt the mortgage
guy because we do it every wednesday at
9 30 a.m how you doing sir i’m doing
great mike how you doing i’m doing well
man i read a statistic yesterday that a
i wanted to check with you
and then b i want to talk about because
it is
there’s not many statistics that make me
go
really
and then if it’s true we really have to
talk about it so this is what i read 60
of all the commercial or all of the
conventional mortgages that are in
existence have been written
in the last 20 months 60
that is
that just means refinance because again
we didn’t buy 60 of the homes in the
last 20 months that means a lot of that
is refinances because again these are
written mortgages
so um could can that be even possible
yeah i mean it certainly can’t i mean
refinance volume
now it’s starting to taper off but
literally for 18 months straight it was
just
you know okay ridiculous i looked at
some numbers too from you know just
freddie mac you got freddie mac and
fannie mae and and freddie mac um
you know track they track prepays so
they’ve got an existing mortgage and
they and they get paid off um which is a
refinance more often than more than not
yeah um you know that was 250 000 a
month you know so if if fannie mae was
was similar you know a half a million
mortgages a month and so you know i
certainly think that the
the stat is legit and it’s wild to think
about you know yeah
so yeah so that’s
again that a i had to make sure it was
even
possible because it was so big but now
there’s going to be ramifications right
because again we just did a show where
you and i both think rates are higher
a year from now than today you’re
slightly below me but you know we’re
within a rounding error of each other
just sub four percent for those who
didn’t see the video um
dude
think about that right rates go up half
a percent or three quarters of a percent
between now and then
uh i gotta guess refi is continually
fall i reported this morning on the
daily financial news that refines are
down like 20 or something year on year
yeah it might be like 31 or might even
31 yeah yeah yeah pretty significantly
right and that’s year on year it was
down five percent week on week
um
so it that has to keep going down right
again sixty percent
for sure yeah i mean there’s there’s
there’s so much data out there that
there’s tracking on you know how many
folks have have benefit right and as
rates trick trickle up i think
i was talking to a a buddy of mine
yesterday about you know they’ve got
like in the money or refinanciable
buckets yeah for you know how many how
many folks are you know in the money
they’re going to see at least 50 basis
points of benefit from a refinance and
you know even ticking above 3
you know that number dropped by 20
and then you can look at like three and
a quarter three and a half like that’s
going to continually go down where
the refinances that are going to happen
are going to be
events right i need to cash out because
i need to do this project right i need
to cash out
you know for for a certain reason
because you know at my level the
conversations me and my staff are having
you know you’ve got a 2.875 that you
refinanced into last april uh you’ve got
all this appreciation and um you’re
thinking about maybe you’re gonna pull
cash out do this that or the other
if if we’re at 3875
and you call me
and and you need 20 or 30 000 for some
project i’m going to say listen we’re
not going to take your whole balance up
a full percent yeah and have you pay
extra interest on 400 000
you know that 20 000 project you find
separate financing for that you do that
separately and that’s videos i’ve made
on like you know pros and cons of home
equity line of credit versus cash out
refinance and and so like refinances
drop significantly because that stuff no
longer makes sense the people that
um were you know there’s a humongous
amount of people and
part of that 60 where like they’ve been
done in the last 20 months that it was
easy right you got a loan at 375 you can
go to 275 and you owe 450 000 you’re
going to save 4 500 a year in interest
you know sign the papers and and no
brainer you know so as that stuff
slowly fades um you know refinance
volume i think one
thing i read was like 62 down in 2022.
and and you want to hear something crazy
is
i’m not afraid to change my opinion
somebody
talked to me about that stat
when it first came out it might have
been a month ago and i said well you
know people have equity in their homes
they’ve got a bunch of credit card debt
i know that consolidating that makes
sense and so i don’t see it going down
by that much then i look at my lead
intake
over the last month and i go holy cow
like if you know if if i’m down 50 on
the conversations i’m having about refi
already you know and rates have only
gone up three eighths when they go up
another three eighths
it it it could be completely possible
that 60 65 of these refinances just go
away because you know the right
mortgage professional truly has your
best interest in mind there has to be
benefit right and there’s you know going
to be
significantly less benefit to no benefit
for for millions of people yeah so we’ll
talk about that the right mortgage
broker here in a minute because but
there’s one other thing that i have i
have often thought about this and i
think it’s about to come true
so as i’ve shared shown you many times
that 50-year spreadsheet that i’ve done
we’ve basically had 40 years of
declining rates
i believe we are now into a rising rate
environment
and what that is going to do i believe
is that’s going to lock people or freeze
them in place so historically speaking
you’re a first time home buyer then
you’re a move up buyer then you’re a
luxury buyer right you kind of have
three jumps as you income goes up your
your wealth goes up you move
dude
if we have all these mortgages written
in the last 60 months and rates go up a
point just picking a number there are
gonna be people that are sticker shot
because again right you’re in a 200k
house you want to go to a foreign chaos
or you’re in a 100k house and you want
to go to a 200k house not only do you
have the price point but you have a huge
interest rate you’re getting slapped
twice right right and and and you know
the people that were able to benefit
over the last 18 months you know might
have been sitting in a 3.75
got all this equity like oh cool but 200
down i can buy a bigger house and now
that i’m at 2.75 my payment only goes up
160 so like you said you know you’re
gonna have a higher purchase price and
a higher interest rate it’s it’s it’s
not gonna it’s not gonna be the same
it’s just gonna be one of those things
where people say no that doesn’t make
sense yeah when people do the math
they’re going to be really locked in
place and this is why i really want to
stress the right mortgage broker um
there are companies out there in this
space
who are sales people first
and advisor second
and um i actually have a loan i’m not
gonna name them but i have a loan with
one of these companies and they’ve been
blowing up my phone trying to get to me
to do a refi
again like after 14 or 15 months and
there’s like a seven dollar benefit and
i gotta repay them like two points or
something i’m like
you’re clearly a salesperson and you
think i can’t do math so folks
if you’re being
sold hard
on something
do the math and
it really turns it frankly dude it
really turns me off about the mortgage
broker or the mortgage industry
sometimes when they’re sales people
right preying on the naive yeah i mean i
i went as far as to try to record some
of these calls i’ve got multiple
mortgages and i let those folks call me
because i want to hear what they’re
saying i want to hear what my clients
are hearing from some of these companies
and you know it only gets more and more
aggressive as you know there’s a
shrinking pie of you know people that
truly have benefit from a refinance and
these companies have humongous staff but
you know they’re going to send you a
letter it’s going to have your mortgage
company’s name on top regarding that in
fine print we’re not them we’re just
trying to make you think we are and you
know it it it aggravates me honestly i
could go off
on a rant because
you know people don’t understand and i
told somebody the other day we were
talking about
you know certain companies have
hot a lot higher prepay than others
because they’re aggressively marketing
people and they’re trying to sell
they’re trying to do transactions you
know let’s not fool ourselves
mortgage companies get paid when they
close mortgages so the more they close
the more they make you know there’s
certain
you know business models like mine
where you take good care of people and
you know future business comes because
people relationship for life yeah right
um
but
it’s
it’s
it’s super aggravating because i know
like the conversation you had the the
worst part is is is they’re trying to
sell you when you’re you know unsellable
because you understand how to do math
but i’ll talk to a client who brings me
multiple quotes and says well this
company said they could get me the 2.5
this company said that they’re showing
me two quotes one might be a deal that
makes sense not a lot of cost baked in a
higher rate the other one makes no sense
in the world it’s 43 dollars a month
less and there’s an extra 8 500 built in
so it’s like a 200 month like this one
is going to take 200 months to catch up
to the benefit of this one
the one with the lower rate your average
consumer goes yeah two and a half that
sounds nice they don’t know any better
and you know the the data that is you
know even more shocking is like when you
look at the pools of
mortgages that refinance more often it’s
people with lower credit scores and you
know maybe
less financial literacy where they’re
you know being
i see that like preyed upon right like
i’ve i’ve had
no less than
a couple dozen people come my way that
were literally halfway through a
mortgage that didn’t make any sense and
i remember one clearly where i’m talking
to
a super nice lady who’s you know a buddy
of mine’s mom
and his dad is you know health isn’t so
good so she’s taking care of the
finances and never has it’s always been
dad’s but dad’s health is bad
you know me and my staff were crying on
the phone because she’s like i’m so
sorry i’m just confused i don’t
understand and i said listen your best
move
is not to touch this mortgage you’ve
already got a three and a half percent
you know 2.75 sounds good but to bake in
11 000 in costs for that rate doesn’t
make any sense
my advice to you is to not sign this
mortgage
that person without somebody saying hey
mom call matt refinances that loan every
time
every time right right and that and that
is what’s happening that’s why prepay
rates are humongous you know of these 60
of the loans that were written in the
last 20 months you know there’s probably
a couple million that shouldn’t have
been written right oh i guarantee you
yeah folks do me a favor if you are a
one rental at a time follower and viewer
of this channel um you need to reach out
to matt the mortgage guy and how do you
want them to do that again
greatmortgagebroker.com get in contact
with us i’ve also had people too no
matter where you’re at no matter what
you’re doing if you want me to review
something i’m happy to that’s exactly
where i’m going yep yeah and and you
know i enjoy doing that because
it really doesn’t take a lot of time it
takes 30 seconds and i’ll tell my staff
you know if you don’t know the answer
run it by me
yeah it makes sense looks good because
sometimes people will be like oh man
this doesn’t seem right and i look at it
and i go you got a 680 score you’re
doing a cash out up to 80 percent
yeah paying a point for this rate it
it’s about right yeah it makes sense
yeah sometimes it is yeah yeah and and
then you know it’s just you know it’s
tough because it’s always presented
differently you’ve got to remember that
you’ve got sales people trying to sell
you
so let me just be really clear on that
front i think it’s about to get super
aggressive and nasty and cutthroat
i’ve been in sales a long time right now
if 60 of the loans have been written in
the last 20 months
and we have a rising rate environment
you’re you’re the sharks are feeding on
a smaller and smaller pool it is about
to get nasty right and this is what
happens too
we run your credit
when we start a loan for you
and the credit agencies sell that data
that says you know mike zuber just ran
his credit for a mortgage
you get 12 calls in the first three
hours it drives people bananas and i say
you know there’s there’s some opt-out
things you can do online but sometimes
it’s unavoidable it’s not us trust me
i’m not selling your data having crappy
mortgage companies try to call and sell
you on a worse loan
it’s not it’s not a very good business
not a good business model right
but but you’re right it’s it’s super
aggressive and and there’s folks out
there that are just you know not trying
to do right by people they’re trying to
meet a quota they’re trying to they’re
trying to fight they’re trying to pay
their bmw more uh car payment their
mercedes car payments man right at this
this
i mean this is you know watch boiler
room watch this it is a it is about to
get nasty yeah well you want you wanna
hear a funny story is i went and and
talked to a mortgage broker who opened
up a shop in arizona and this was you
know at a mortgage broker convention he
left quicken loans he was a high up
sales leader quicken loans and he was
explaining stuff to me 2018 2019 not 10
years ago not 15 years ago literally two
or three years ago where
you know
it’s it’s wolf of wall street stuff like
these guys are pounding the phones and
they’ve got quotas to meet and you know
they’re working 12 15 hour days and you
know they’re
at any cost necessary trying to get a
loan across the finish line like it’s
it’s stuff that is is disheartening to
hear right but if we can spread enough
good information hopefully we can get
people to avoid that stuff yeah folks so
do yourself a favor you’re following
this channel it’s a channel that brings
on multiple experts a week that they’re
really trying to help people that are
willing to review other things so matt
one more time how do you want them to
reach out
get in touch with us there if if if the
first you know person you talk to
is is asking you you know what you’re
looking to do just let them know hey i’d
love for you to review this and we’re
happy to um go check out my channel by
the way matt the mortgage guy on youtube
between last week’s call this week’s
call mike i hit 10 000 subscribers so
it’s exciting stuff 10 000 subs nice
nice man and again he puts out a lot of
great stuff follow-up
trying cool man thank you very much for
your time congrats uh this should be fun
ten thousand that’s huge yeah thanks
mike