CRAZY STAT: 60% of Mortgages were Written in last 24 Months. What Does it Mean to Housing & Brokers?

Video Closed Caption: 

good morning good afternoon good evening

folks mike zuber one rental at a time

and we’ve brought back matt the mortgage

guy because we do it every wednesday at

9 30 a.m how you doing sir i’m doing

great mike how you doing i’m doing well

man i read a statistic yesterday that a

i wanted to check with you

and then b i want to talk about because

it is

there’s not many statistics that make me

go

really

and then if it’s true we really have to

talk about it so this is what i read 60

of all the commercial or all of the

conventional mortgages that are in

existence have been written

in the last 20 months 60

that is

that just means refinance because again

we didn’t buy 60 of the homes in the

last 20 months that means a lot of that

is refinances because again these are

written mortgages

so um could can that be even possible

yeah i mean it certainly can’t i mean

refinance volume

now it’s starting to taper off but

literally for 18 months straight it was

just

you know okay ridiculous i looked at

some numbers too from you know just

freddie mac you got freddie mac and

fannie mae and and freddie mac um

you know track they track prepays so

they’ve got an existing mortgage and

they and they get paid off um which is a

refinance more often than more than not

yeah um you know that was 250 000 a

month you know so if if fannie mae was

was similar you know a half a million

mortgages a month and so you know i

certainly think that the

the stat is legit and it’s wild to think

about you know yeah

so yeah so that’s

again that a i had to make sure it was

even

possible because it was so big but now

there’s going to be ramifications right

because again we just did a show where

you and i both think rates are higher

a year from now than today you’re

slightly below me but you know we’re

within a rounding error of each other

just sub four percent for those who

didn’t see the video um

dude

think about that right rates go up half

a percent or three quarters of a percent

between now and then

uh i gotta guess refi is continually

fall i reported this morning on the

daily financial news that refines are

down like 20 or something year on year

yeah it might be like 31 or might even

31 yeah yeah yeah pretty significantly

right and that’s year on year it was

down five percent week on week

um

so it that has to keep going down right

again sixty percent

for sure yeah i mean there’s there’s

there’s so much data out there that

there’s tracking on you know how many

folks have have benefit right and as

rates trick trickle up i think

i was talking to a a buddy of mine

yesterday about you know they’ve got

like in the money or refinanciable

buckets yeah for you know how many how

many folks are you know in the money

they’re going to see at least 50 basis

points of benefit from a refinance and

you know even ticking above 3

you know that number dropped by 20

and then you can look at like three and

a quarter three and a half like that’s

going to continually go down where

the refinances that are going to happen

are going to be

events right i need to cash out because

i need to do this project right i need

to cash out

you know for for a certain reason

because you know at my level the

conversations me and my staff are having

you know you’ve got a 2.875 that you

refinanced into last april uh you’ve got

all this appreciation and um you’re

thinking about maybe you’re gonna pull

cash out do this that or the other

if if we’re at 3875

and you call me

and and you need 20 or 30 000 for some

project i’m going to say listen we’re

not going to take your whole balance up

a full percent yeah and have you pay

extra interest on 400 000

you know that 20 000 project you find

separate financing for that you do that

separately and that’s videos i’ve made

on like you know pros and cons of home

equity line of credit versus cash out

refinance and and so like refinances

drop significantly because that stuff no

longer makes sense the people that

um were you know there’s a humongous

amount of people and

part of that 60 where like they’ve been

done in the last 20 months that it was

easy right you got a loan at 375 you can

go to 275 and you owe 450 000 you’re

going to save 4 500 a year in interest

you know sign the papers and and no

brainer you know so as that stuff

slowly fades um you know refinance

volume i think one

thing i read was like 62 down in 2022.

and and you want to hear something crazy

is

i’m not afraid to change my opinion

somebody

talked to me about that stat

when it first came out it might have

been a month ago and i said well you

know people have equity in their homes

they’ve got a bunch of credit card debt

i know that consolidating that makes

sense and so i don’t see it going down

by that much then i look at my lead

intake

over the last month and i go holy cow

like if you know if if i’m down 50 on

the conversations i’m having about refi

already you know and rates have only

gone up three eighths when they go up

another three eighths

it it it could be completely possible

that 60 65 of these refinances just go

away because you know the right

mortgage professional truly has your

best interest in mind there has to be

benefit right and there’s you know going

to be

significantly less benefit to no benefit

for for millions of people yeah so we’ll

talk about that the right mortgage

broker here in a minute because but

there’s one other thing that i have i

have often thought about this and i

think it’s about to come true

so as i’ve shared shown you many times

that 50-year spreadsheet that i’ve done

we’ve basically had 40 years of

declining rates

i believe we are now into a rising rate

environment

and what that is going to do i believe

is that’s going to lock people or freeze

them in place so historically speaking

you’re a first time home buyer then

you’re a move up buyer then you’re a

luxury buyer right you kind of have

three jumps as you income goes up your

your wealth goes up you move

dude

if we have all these mortgages written

in the last 60 months and rates go up a

point just picking a number there are

gonna be people that are sticker shot

because again right you’re in a 200k

house you want to go to a foreign chaos

or you’re in a 100k house and you want

to go to a 200k house not only do you

have the price point but you have a huge

interest rate you’re getting slapped

twice right right and and and you know

the people that were able to benefit

over the last 18 months you know might

have been sitting in a 3.75

got all this equity like oh cool but 200

down i can buy a bigger house and now

that i’m at 2.75 my payment only goes up

160 so like you said you know you’re

gonna have a higher purchase price and

a higher interest rate it’s it’s it’s

not gonna it’s not gonna be the same

it’s just gonna be one of those things

where people say no that doesn’t make

sense yeah when people do the math

they’re going to be really locked in

place and this is why i really want to

stress the right mortgage broker um

there are companies out there in this

space

who are sales people first

and advisor second

and um i actually have a loan i’m not

gonna name them but i have a loan with

one of these companies and they’ve been

blowing up my phone trying to get to me

to do a refi

again like after 14 or 15 months and

there’s like a seven dollar benefit and

i gotta repay them like two points or

something i’m like

you’re clearly a salesperson and you

think i can’t do math so folks

if you’re being

sold hard

on something

do the math and

it really turns it frankly dude it

really turns me off about the mortgage

broker or the mortgage industry

sometimes when they’re sales people

right preying on the naive yeah i mean i

i went as far as to try to record some

of these calls i’ve got multiple

mortgages and i let those folks call me

because i want to hear what they’re

saying i want to hear what my clients

are hearing from some of these companies

and you know it only gets more and more

aggressive as you know there’s a

shrinking pie of you know people that

truly have benefit from a refinance and

these companies have humongous staff but

you know they’re going to send you a

letter it’s going to have your mortgage

company’s name on top regarding that in

fine print we’re not them we’re just

trying to make you think we are and you

know it it it aggravates me honestly i

could go off

on a rant because

you know people don’t understand and i

told somebody the other day we were

talking about

you know certain companies have

hot a lot higher prepay than others

because they’re aggressively marketing

people and they’re trying to sell

they’re trying to do transactions you

know let’s not fool ourselves

mortgage companies get paid when they

close mortgages so the more they close

the more they make you know there’s

certain

you know business models like mine

where you take good care of people and

you know future business comes because

people relationship for life yeah right

um

but

it’s

it’s

it’s super aggravating because i know

like the conversation you had the the

worst part is is is they’re trying to

sell you when you’re you know unsellable

because you understand how to do math

but i’ll talk to a client who brings me

multiple quotes and says well this

company said they could get me the 2.5

this company said that they’re showing

me two quotes one might be a deal that

makes sense not a lot of cost baked in a

higher rate the other one makes no sense

in the world it’s 43 dollars a month

less and there’s an extra 8 500 built in

so it’s like a 200 month like this one

is going to take 200 months to catch up

to the benefit of this one

the one with the lower rate your average

consumer goes yeah two and a half that

sounds nice they don’t know any better

and you know the the data that is you

know even more shocking is like when you

look at the pools of

mortgages that refinance more often it’s

people with lower credit scores and you

know maybe

less financial literacy where they’re

you know being

i see that like preyed upon right like

i’ve i’ve had

no less than

a couple dozen people come my way that

were literally halfway through a

mortgage that didn’t make any sense and

i remember one clearly where i’m talking

to

a super nice lady who’s you know a buddy

of mine’s mom

and his dad is you know health isn’t so

good so she’s taking care of the

finances and never has it’s always been

dad’s but dad’s health is bad

you know me and my staff were crying on

the phone because she’s like i’m so

sorry i’m just confused i don’t

understand and i said listen your best

move

is not to touch this mortgage you’ve

already got a three and a half percent

you know 2.75 sounds good but to bake in

11 000 in costs for that rate doesn’t

make any sense

my advice to you is to not sign this

mortgage

that person without somebody saying hey

mom call matt refinances that loan every

time

every time right right and that and that

is what’s happening that’s why prepay

rates are humongous you know of these 60

of the loans that were written in the

last 20 months you know there’s probably

a couple million that shouldn’t have

been written right oh i guarantee you

yeah folks do me a favor if you are a

one rental at a time follower and viewer

of this channel um you need to reach out

to matt the mortgage guy and how do you

want them to do that again

greatmortgagebroker.com get in contact

with us i’ve also had people too no

matter where you’re at no matter what

you’re doing if you want me to review

something i’m happy to that’s exactly

where i’m going yep yeah and and you

know i enjoy doing that because

it really doesn’t take a lot of time it

takes 30 seconds and i’ll tell my staff

you know if you don’t know the answer

run it by me

yeah it makes sense looks good because

sometimes people will be like oh man

this doesn’t seem right and i look at it

and i go you got a 680 score you’re

doing a cash out up to 80 percent

yeah paying a point for this rate it

it’s about right yeah it makes sense

yeah sometimes it is yeah yeah and and

then you know it’s just you know it’s

tough because it’s always presented

differently you’ve got to remember that

you’ve got sales people trying to sell

you

so let me just be really clear on that

front i think it’s about to get super

aggressive and nasty and cutthroat

i’ve been in sales a long time right now

if 60 of the loans have been written in

the last 20 months

and we have a rising rate environment

you’re you’re the sharks are feeding on

a smaller and smaller pool it is about

to get nasty right and this is what

happens too

we run your credit

when we start a loan for you

and the credit agencies sell that data

that says you know mike zuber just ran

his credit for a mortgage

you get 12 calls in the first three

hours it drives people bananas and i say

you know there’s there’s some opt-out

things you can do online but sometimes

it’s unavoidable it’s not us trust me

i’m not selling your data having crappy

mortgage companies try to call and sell

you on a worse loan

it’s not it’s not a very good business

not a good business model right

but but you’re right it’s it’s super

aggressive and and there’s folks out

there that are just you know not trying

to do right by people they’re trying to

meet a quota they’re trying to they’re

trying to fight they’re trying to pay

their bmw more uh car payment their

mercedes car payments man right at this

this

i mean this is you know watch boiler

room watch this it is a it is about to

get nasty yeah well you want you wanna

hear a funny story is i went and and

talked to a mortgage broker who opened

up a shop in arizona and this was you

know at a mortgage broker convention he

left quicken loans he was a high up

sales leader quicken loans and he was

explaining stuff to me 2018 2019 not 10

years ago not 15 years ago literally two

or three years ago where

you know

it’s it’s wolf of wall street stuff like

these guys are pounding the phones and

they’ve got quotas to meet and you know

they’re working 12 15 hour days and you

know they’re

at any cost necessary trying to get a

loan across the finish line like it’s

it’s stuff that is is disheartening to

hear right but if we can spread enough

good information hopefully we can get

people to avoid that stuff yeah folks so

do yourself a favor you’re following

this channel it’s a channel that brings

on multiple experts a week that they’re

really trying to help people that are

willing to review other things so matt

one more time how do you want them to

reach out

get in touch with us there if if if the

first you know person you talk to

is is asking you you know what you’re

looking to do just let them know hey i’d

love for you to review this and we’re

happy to um go check out my channel by

the way matt the mortgage guy on youtube

between last week’s call this week’s

call mike i hit 10 000 subscribers so

it’s exciting stuff 10 000 subs nice

nice man and again he puts out a lot of

great stuff follow-up

trying cool man thank you very much for

your time congrats uh this should be fun

ten thousand that’s huge yeah thanks

mike

 

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