Video Closed Captioning:
morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael zuber one rental at a time
it is monday april 25th
and this is your
daily financial news this is a new show
that you can count on
seven days a week
usually starts at 7 30
sometimes on thursdays we actually go a
little bit early
because we talk to one of our experts at
7 30 instead a couple of quick uh notes
about today one i am feeling under the
weather i am not my normal
i just feel off last night was uh was
rough but uh we are here
uh and hopefully we’ll be interviewing
uh greg and um
gosh just not happy just just just off
this morning so i think taylor taylor is
at 9 30. so again uh
sorry i’m just off i feel terrible
i feel terrible
uh but first let’s congratulate marissa
marissa found the easter egg on my
website one rental at a time
marissa your shirt will go out
probably tomorrow cause
after this i’m going home and taking a
nap probably
when we look at the daily financial news
we really do need to start with the
stock market
and the stock market the nasdaq
specifically
has entered fair market territory it is
down 20 percent from the peak
uh looks like more selling is coming
you’ve been watching my channel for any
length of time
you know that i had called this
weeks ago
right uh
i often call it smart money and dumb
money
the smart money was saying the fed is
serious the dumb money was like
they’re not going to do anything and it
looks like the dumb money is waking up
and we are in earnings season
and while the first
week of earning season was generally
good 75 percent of companies
hit or exceeded expectations
i do not expect once we get into the
throes of computer or consumer and
discretionary uh that the story will be
the same and more importantly multiples
must come in
the fact that we’re still trading as of
this weekend at 22 times
into
potentially stagflation or heaven forbid
recession
that’s got to come in even if earnings
stay flat stocks will fall because of
that um
compression so again be careful out
there as always
what do i talk about
do the work
and recessions bear markets are great
opportunities to make money as greg
dickerson always says
good times never last bedtime bad times
never last
get your shopping list ready get some
dry powder we’ve been talking about all
of this
for quite a while so hopefully you are
doing what we are talking about
i did see an interesting article talking
about mortgage rates and who is hurt by
the sudden jump in mortgage rates
kind of a side note i did check the
10-year treasury it’s actually down this
morning it’s down quite significantly
for a single day
a lot of this i believe is because china
beijing might be going on a similar
lockdown like shanghai
folks this uh
this is this is not good not good so um
yeah there’s there’s stagflation really
is
again as i’ve called it we are in the
midst of stagflation and uh
it’s not it doesn’t feel good to say
uh but when you look at mortgage rates
who is impacted the most i think
obviously for me
first-time homebuyers
the folks that were stretching
uh to get in to that
um
it is um
it’s got to be very very tough for first
time home buyers i suspect
builders will have some cancellations
and have to kind of sell the house twice
builders as greg dickerson talks about
could feel a lot of pain
the banking industry is already feeling
pain just like i said and wells fargo is
again laying off folks validated over
the weekend so again lots of stuff but
what about sellers
that is a great question because most
sellers most sellers
become buyers right there are very few
folks that will sell and just cash out
absolutely some probably a great time to
do it
if you happen to have a second home or
you want to go somewhere and rent i get
it but most people sell and buy
something else either they are the move
up buyer or they are the buyer changing
locations right moving from la to miami
or la to austin or phoenix or whatever
so rates uh really
impact you on both sides so again it’s
very interesting to see what is going on
with rates because buyers and sellers
are definitely being hit by what is
going on right now
i do want to talk about wall street
we’ve talked about wall street buying
residential properties for probably a
year maybe even a year and a half
they are not big operators right they’re
about one percent
they are certainly dominant in certain
markets like phoenix for example
i wonder
i wonder if you’re in phoenix or in one
of these locations i want to hear from
you
i believe wall street is
surprisingly simple to understand
wall street is in the business of making
money
we talked about the tina trade there is
no alternative
the fed broke housing the fed broke the
stock market
i believe the last two years
wall street came to single-family homes
billed for rent
because of the t-nut trade
when i look at the purchases they’ve
done it appears
it appears
that they are aiming for a six percent
what i call yield
risk-adjusted return
well
the 10-year note and all the five-year
note is almost at three percent so my
feeling about wall street
is at some point they will go elsewhere
we shall see
that said i do not believe wall street
will sell
i believe wall street is a good investor
i believe they’ve structured their debt
of the assets they already own at rock
bottom prices
but i do see wall street
not buying as actively as rates go up
they will keep what they have i know a
lot of you are hoping they sell i don’t
think that’s how wall street operates
they buy them fix them up
generate cash flow and they flip them
into a bond so they get all their money
back and keep the asset but i do think
they’re going to stop buying let me know
what you think of that below
uh coca-cola reported it’s the first
earnings of the week they beat top and
bottom top means they sold that’s
revenue right how many piece coke cans
they sold and bottom line is earnings
after all expenses
revenue jumped 16 percent
i called this over the weekend i
suspected that coke would have good
numbers because events
are kicking back off
coca-cola is very event-driven compared
to pepsi pepsi years ago
uh de-risked their portfolio because
they bought frito-lay
so
they’re really
yes they both sell sugar water but pepsi
is far more diversified coke is
definitely events driven so uh they did
hit
looks like more and more reports are
coming out that uh elon musk will
successfully buy twitter this is
something i’ve talked about being very
likely
the question is
will elon musk be the ceo of three
companies
tesla
spacex twitter
i’ve seen some tweets some mentions from
uh elon musk
that he sees his twitter acquisition as
perhaps the most important thing he has
done free speech
if that is the case
what does he give up
does he give up being the ceo of tesla
does he give up as being the ceo of
spacex
what does he do i think that is a i
think that’s a real question
i don’t know does he nominate someone
for twitter i don’t know
he has the same 24 hours in the day that
you and i have he clearly processes
information at amazing levels
but really ceo of three companies i
don’t know if that’s been done before i
need to look that up
maybe one of you could look that up
maybe google for me has there ever been
somebody who’s been the ceo of three
companies at one time i’m not talking
chairman of the board
or like
you know like celebratory roles i mean
like active ceos so kind of interesting
oil stocks are falling this morning
again based on china right they are
potentially shutting beijing down
it is a
very odd
behavior right i just saw some pictures
this morning where they’re installing
gates and stuff in shanghai to keep
people inside
that is
very it’s very odd behavior
i don’t i don’t that certainly wouldn’t
work here i would hope
more and more talk about central banks
do central banks have the balls to do
what’s necessary
what does that mean
well
as we have learned as we have talked
about for quite a while
the way you break inflation is you get
the fed funds rate one
or two or more points above inflation
so let’s just say we’ve hit peak
inflation we kind of roll over but we
settle at five percent
does any one of you think that powell
has the guts to take the fed funds rate
up to five six or seven percent
i certainly do not at least not right
now
again if you go back and look at my
whiteboard discussion about 2022 and
2023 i think he gets to three percent
this year
maybe four percent next year but i just
can’t see five six or seven so does this
mean inflation just stays with us longer
probably
it does mean that the fed has to
engineer a recession in my opinion
uh we’ve been talking about the fed
breaking housing recently i now think
with what i’m seeing going on in the
stock market my conversation with dan
bird yesterday i think the fed broke the
stock market
think about it two years ago we were
sending money to everyone
lots of those folks were still working
so you took that money and you put it in
robin hood or weeble or whatever
then those companies started to give you
loans or debt on your shares
there’s an amazing amount of leverage
in the stock market at some point that
will capitulate at some point there will
be liquidations
and we could be well on our way to that
i think the fed broke assets
movie theaters i want to hear from you
audience participation time
movie theaters last year did 1.85
billion dollars that’s an increase of
365
i want to know what summer blockbusters
are you looking forward to
uh i just saw a
i don’t know what you call a preview
of top gun or top gun 2 or whatever
they’re calling it that looks like fun
but let me know which movies you are
looking forward to seeing this summer uh
very interesting
general motors
is going to make an electric corvette
wow can you imagine a corvette
fiberglass body
electric kind of dual quad motors that
thing is going to be a spaceship
that thing’s going to fly right my god
i’m gonna have to check one of those out
someday just to maybe rent one and see
how fast they are
and then let’s let’s just kind of round
it out with this
bear markets are not fun
bear markets are not fun they hurt they
hurt the unprepared for sure
hopefully if you’re watching this
channel you’ve been taking action
hopefully you’ve been watching this
channel you have some dry powder
recessions bear markets are amazing
opportunities for those that do the work
it is the best time to make game
changing or life changing money
it is how you can buy assets on the
cheap
so that’s what i look forward to doing
hopefully you are as well yes again
recessions bear markets suck
they are part of the cycle
they are to be appreciated and respected
that’s kind of what i think and again
that we we are in one now according to i
think it was the nasdaq this morning is
down 20 so again
don’t be afraid understand appreciate do
the work
if you’re going to buy some assets in
stocks or crypto great do the work
if you’re looking at real estate great
do the work it’s the same deal
all right everybody take care of
yourself i’m glad i got through this i
really don’t feel that good
so take care of yourself bye