10 Year Challenge Where Was Real Estate, The Economy, Interest Rate in 2012, Hint Last NEGATIVE Year

Video Closed Captioning:

good morning good afternoon good evening

folks michael zuber one rental at a time

and what makes this channel unique is we

bring in experts in areas i have zero

experience and one of those areas is

lending i’ve been a borrower but never a

lender and something that is very hot

today is non-qm or non-qualified

mortgages so we bring on mr stephen dao

from velocity mortgage hey buddy

hey how you doing bud i’m doing well man

so you’ve helped me a couple of times i

look forward to helping me more this

year uh why don’t you give me the

marketing spiel so we can get into our

topics

thank you again although i work happily

for velocity mortgage capital all the

ideas and topics discussed on this

channel that of my own let’s get it

cracking yeah and by the way i like the

hat thank you for representing yes sir

thank you you know there you go it’s i

thought it was a little on the small

side but you know i’m not the biggest

stature i gotta shop at baby gap all the

time anyway so

you made it work size yeah i made it

work there you go there you go well hey

one of the things that’s going on on

instagram is this 10-year challenge

basically where families and people are

taking a picture of what they were doing

10 years ago no they’re single or out

the bars now they’re family with kids

what i thought you and i would do is

look back at uh what was going on in our

economy what was going on in real estate

in 2012 uh so you ready for that

let’s do it all right so let me share my

screen because again folks something we

do on this channel is we give back one

of the things that i spent over 24 hours

of my time doing was creating this thing

i call a 50-year spreadsheet goes all

the way back to 1970. lots of you have

it lots of you asked for stuff so i

added more stuff

right i mean just just the stuff that’s

in here now is just insane i mean just

scroll down

uh s p home appreciation wages cpi all

that stuff’s in there but why is this

spreadsheet important well this can help

us with our look back but again it is so

important i give it away for free link

below to my teachable courses it is

given away in the free course i don’t

charge for this even though my time is

very valuable uh i thought it was so

important for people to get it i put it

there so

2012 stephen first thing to realize is

you can see the column here ar hopefully

you can see that it was the last year

home

prices nationwide went negative uh it

was the fifth of five years uh where we

had a cumulative fall of 22.3 percent so

is it can you believe that the average

home or the median home price

in the united states was only 170 grand

ten years oh no i i i was doing uh some

short sales right before that so i saw

some crazy crazy deals out of florida

out of vegas

i mean it was i mean you’re talking

three bedroom three bath

uh 27 hundred twenty eight hundred

square feet i forgot where florida but

it was like eighty eight thousand

dollars

yeah

one of the properties i looked up and i

may do a personal ten year challenge was

a house i bought on the street called

tower i paid thirty six thousand five

hundred foot

today it’s worth almost three hundred

th that’s like a that’s like a used

honda accord

it’s like half yeah it’s like half it’s

not even yeah anyways it’s not even half

the car that i drive today it’s kind of

crazy right uh but anyways uh so when i

look back to 2012

uh first off also not only was the last

year of home negative but look at the

interest rate it was 3.66 which you know

as we look back today it’s roughly that

i think i ran the mortgage brokers

association

the average was 3.53 so let’s just call

that the same number right

10 years later interest rates are

roughly the same which i thought was

interesting

uh median family income was only 52.

let’s call it 51 grand we’ll round down

right wage growth was 2.8 percent

um where was it before that was it up or

down let’s see it was uh it was kind of

it was it was okay it had a negative

year negative eight point two percent in

2010 so negative wage worth can happen

we have a big appreciation coming cpi

was only two percent you know today it

was seven percent reported this week

the s p was only thirteen hundred

uh

and i think it’s like four grand today

or something crazy yes yeah it’s over

four already uh so the inter so the net

the um index grew only two percent for

the year that was interesting

it was kind of the or was it before that

let’s see

oh oh it came off too good yeah 30 and

  1. after a big ass fall and whatever

year this was what year was this

is that i think oh nine it had to be a

nine yeah it has to be right i could

count backwards yeah yep look at that

look at that look at like you know

[Laughter]

because i was feeling it i was in that

industry and with all that like

negative yeah yeah crazy stuff i was

falling at that point

uh yeah so again this wage inflate yeah

so again this is really cool stuff so

again 10 years ago why is this important

uh there’s always people talking about a

crash people were still talking about a

crash

you know they were talking about a crash

in 15 and 16. and look at all these home

appreciation numbers

right right just just what does that

cumulative well i mean

once you hit the bottom there’s nowhere

else to go but up but you know at that

point just how fast and and how long so

um

we’ve been on a good ride you know and

then even now

with low inventory

yeah funny that interest rates were in

the 10 years and again i don’t have 20

and 21 this this was done at the end of

2020 i should probably add those last

two years but right um

yeah i think you’d be below three yeah

well yeah if you’re going into 2021.

the peak for interest rates was four and

a half so it’s not even a full point

higher so okay

what else what else is interesting here

the median income oh wow look at the

median income it went up 50

50 to 75 yeah yeah yeah yeah that’s

that’s and yeah big jump the last two

years

where’s the s p oh s p almost oh s p

went up

let’s call it 1900 points i hope you

guys are invested in the stock market

all right

well that’s great actually you know what

let’s do that math so let’s assume you

bought a house median home price in

  1. let’s just have some okay i see

you’re doing okay yeah so let’s just

assume and uh let’s assume you put 20

down so where’s my damn calculator so

170 grand i could do that let’s just

call it 34 grand 34 right

so

so okay 136 home yeah so you take a loan

for 136. uh then now it’s now it’s worth

270 and this is that’s actually 220.

let’s median home price well it looks

like you had put down the amounts

already there as far as like it looks

like 10 is that what you’re using before

okay yeah yeah yeah but hold on

let’s get median home for actually do i

have that in here because i’ve added

data

since then

yeah medium home price was that yeah i

saw it yeah let’s see

oh so i added it for july of 21. so 363.

what is the median home price folks give

me one second let google be it do its

thing

median

home price

uh we’ll call it december

2021

boom boom

375 grand according to google so let’s

do that so

375 grand let’s go back to where we were

so we bought it for 170 and now it’s

worth 375.

so that’s an appreciation of 205 grand

you’re with me

oh yeah

but when you start talking those kind of

numbers that’s sexy i’m not like oh i’m

falling i’m done i’m in so but you only

put 34 000 down so

right 205 grand

divided by 34 000.

oh it’s only 602 percent yeah you know

not bad a bad investment

not bad yeah 600 602 because again with

real estate you get leverage

what is it uh

what is it here so let’s see for for the

stock market 30 right

78

13 12. yeah 250 for the stock market so

not bad that’s not bad

yeah that’s good i’d rather take 600

though but you know hey i would too and

not have to ride along on the roller

coaster ride of up and down and changes

and oh it’s a steady slope up you know

so and then rent i think i had rent in

here oh yeah that’s another interesting

cash flow oh man so not only

appreciation in in an asset yeah but

then yeah yeah yeah you don’t have rent

in here mike come on come on man i know

i did not need to spend 26 hours of your

time the good news is i have the data i

just didn’t put it in here somebody said

no i don’t know okay that’s funny so

again rents right so again your 30-year

debt’s fixed your rent your payment your

payment never changes

because now i mean the appreciation in

the value that’s just almost like buying

a stock right but if you show them the

rents now the cash flows increased over

the last 10 years it’s like wait a

minute you don’t account for that yeah

you know wait up wait a minute

yeah i’m trying to think of the lyric

but it just escapes me but anyways so

this is this is how i look back i don’t

want to do 10-year look back of pictures

and all that i want to look back at real

estate the real estate market was at the

bottom interest rates really haven’t

moved wages have gone up 50 percent

uh

wow again if you bought a piece of

property in 2012 you got 600

without considering rent so i would say

uh i have a saying stephen you’ve heard

me say time in the markets is better

than timing the market

uh so yeah there’s my 10-year look back

any other thoughts

uh no that’s the fun part of the 10-year

uh i guess you know challenge because

for uh asian uh because for people of

asian descent it’s not that fun because

it’s exactly the same

let’s go to my yearbook it’s just the

facial hair otherwise it’s exactly the

same man so

uh yeah but

yeah that was a fun little uh you know

uh uh memory a trip down memory lane

because uh brought back a lot of

different memories from different some

good episodes

yes yes definitely but three yeah 2012

definitely the bottom if if you are

doing some work and you’re starting to

reinvest in the market yeah man you’re

sitting pretty right now yeah and i got

to tell you 2012 because again i was

buying i was buying i was buying

handover fists in my market 2010 to 2012

and nobody was there i mean it was it

was comical i was buying out of the mls

nobody was showing up it was it was

crazy yeah well and then wall street

came in and changed the game in like

2013 i was like damn those guys oh well

right well they saw they saw what was

going on but uh i mean yeah if you could

put together the rent part that would be

i think very interesting because then

now i think everybody else they know

that property values again are going to

go up at some point it says time in the

market like you say but as far as the

the cash flow aspect i think that’s

where it’s really going to gravitate

like wait a minute what did you just say

how much did it go for 10 years oh my

gosh so then did you just add it all up

and so that plus the appreciation okay

fine i will do more work just for you

anyway looking forward to that data

there you go well folks stephen dao has

a playlist below uh check him out if

you’re looking to get started and you

can’t get a bank loan from matt the

mortgage guy stephen dow’s a guy for you

how do you want them to reach out

uh s gao uh velocitymortgage.com

uh please leave the best phone number to

call you back at uh a gist of maybe the

um

a brief description of the scenario

looking to get information on or at

least some general terms as far as

property type maybe loan amount range

ltv your mid fico score um and at least

maybe city and state where the products

located and or address would be helpful

because there’s a lot of different

factors that could impact whether or not

i say yes or no right off the bat and or

could impact your rate so all the

information will help save time between

the back and forth emails uh you know

multiple phone calls things of that

nature in addition to that apologies for

so many people been trying to reach me

just getting buried sometimes the i

don’t know why the

uh

uh

firewall gets you know still catches

things with with the orat uh in there

and i try to go there at the end of the

day to try to catch people but we’re

just getting so much positive response

and so it’s just 24 hours a day man i’m

trying the best i can to get caught up

so please if you don’t reach me the

first time keep keep

and then i’ll send you back my phone

number and then you call me at your

early school meetings and then we’ll try

to you know make that happen but i i

really am working every day even on the

weekends so if you you know to stay

persistent i promise i’ll get back to

the end or i’ll pick up as fast as i can

it’s just when people are trying to

schedule a call there’s no time to

schedule it’s just literally yeah yeah

i’m just yeah so okay

the good news folks is you have the

weekend coming up so again uh send them

an email this weekend so you get on the

keller calendar for monday or tuesday

send them a note this weekend let’s

let’s see if we can’t get 10 or 15

people uh so we can uh start working

with you next week so oh no they’re

they’re

we’re beyond 10 15 mike so uh but yeah

bring it on 10 or 15 new people

okay

oh okay well thanks thank you for

working yeah thank you

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