Video Closed Captioning:
good morning good afternoon good evening
folks michael zuber one rental at a time
and what makes this channel unique is we
bring in experts in areas i have zero
experience and one of those areas is
lending i’ve been a borrower but never a
lender and something that is very hot
today is non-qm or non-qualified
mortgages so we bring on mr stephen dao
from velocity mortgage hey buddy
hey how you doing bud i’m doing well man
so you’ve helped me a couple of times i
look forward to helping me more this
year uh why don’t you give me the
marketing spiel so we can get into our
topics
thank you again although i work happily
for velocity mortgage capital all the
ideas and topics discussed on this
channel that of my own let’s get it
cracking yeah and by the way i like the
hat thank you for representing yes sir
thank you you know there you go it’s i
thought it was a little on the small
side but you know i’m not the biggest
stature i gotta shop at baby gap all the
time anyway so
you made it work size yeah i made it
work there you go there you go well hey
one of the things that’s going on on
instagram is this 10-year challenge
basically where families and people are
taking a picture of what they were doing
10 years ago no they’re single or out
the bars now they’re family with kids
what i thought you and i would do is
look back at uh what was going on in our
economy what was going on in real estate
in 2012 uh so you ready for that
let’s do it all right so let me share my
screen because again folks something we
do on this channel is we give back one
of the things that i spent over 24 hours
of my time doing was creating this thing
i call a 50-year spreadsheet goes all
the way back to 1970. lots of you have
it lots of you asked for stuff so i
added more stuff
right i mean just just the stuff that’s
in here now is just insane i mean just
scroll down
uh s p home appreciation wages cpi all
that stuff’s in there but why is this
spreadsheet important well this can help
us with our look back but again it is so
important i give it away for free link
below to my teachable courses it is
given away in the free course i don’t
charge for this even though my time is
very valuable uh i thought it was so
important for people to get it i put it
there so
2012 stephen first thing to realize is
you can see the column here ar hopefully
you can see that it was the last year
home
prices nationwide went negative uh it
was the fifth of five years uh where we
had a cumulative fall of 22.3 percent so
is it can you believe that the average
home or the median home price
in the united states was only 170 grand
ten years oh no i i i was doing uh some
short sales right before that so i saw
some crazy crazy deals out of florida
out of vegas
i mean it was i mean you’re talking
three bedroom three bath
uh 27 hundred twenty eight hundred
square feet i forgot where florida but
it was like eighty eight thousand
dollars
yeah
one of the properties i looked up and i
may do a personal ten year challenge was
a house i bought on the street called
tower i paid thirty six thousand five
hundred foot
today it’s worth almost three hundred
th that’s like a that’s like a used
honda accord
it’s like half yeah it’s like half it’s
not even yeah anyways it’s not even half
the car that i drive today it’s kind of
crazy right uh but anyways uh so when i
look back to 2012
uh first off also not only was the last
year of home negative but look at the
interest rate it was 3.66 which you know
as we look back today it’s roughly that
i think i ran the mortgage brokers
association
the average was 3.53 so let’s just call
that the same number right
10 years later interest rates are
roughly the same which i thought was
interesting
uh median family income was only 52.
let’s call it 51 grand we’ll round down
right wage growth was 2.8 percent
um where was it before that was it up or
down let’s see it was uh it was kind of
it was it was okay it had a negative
year negative eight point two percent in
2010 so negative wage worth can happen
we have a big appreciation coming cpi
was only two percent you know today it
was seven percent reported this week
the s p was only thirteen hundred
uh
and i think it’s like four grand today
or something crazy yes yeah it’s over
four already uh so the inter so the net
the um index grew only two percent for
the year that was interesting
it was kind of the or was it before that
let’s see
oh oh it came off too good yeah 30 and
- after a big ass fall and whatever
year this was what year was this
is that i think oh nine it had to be a
nine yeah it has to be right i could
count backwards yeah yep look at that
look at that look at like you know
[Laughter]
because i was feeling it i was in that
industry and with all that like
negative yeah yeah crazy stuff i was
falling at that point
uh yeah so again this wage inflate yeah
so again this is really cool stuff so
again 10 years ago why is this important
uh there’s always people talking about a
crash people were still talking about a
crash
you know they were talking about a crash
in 15 and 16. and look at all these home
appreciation numbers
right right just just what does that
cumulative well i mean
once you hit the bottom there’s nowhere
else to go but up but you know at that
point just how fast and and how long so
um
we’ve been on a good ride you know and
then even now
with low inventory
yeah funny that interest rates were in
the 10 years and again i don’t have 20
and 21 this this was done at the end of
2020 i should probably add those last
two years but right um
yeah i think you’d be below three yeah
well yeah if you’re going into 2021.
the peak for interest rates was four and
a half so it’s not even a full point
higher so okay
what else what else is interesting here
the median income oh wow look at the
median income it went up 50
50 to 75 yeah yeah yeah yeah that’s
that’s and yeah big jump the last two
years
where’s the s p oh s p almost oh s p
went up
let’s call it 1900 points i hope you
guys are invested in the stock market
all right
well that’s great actually you know what
let’s do that math so let’s assume you
bought a house median home price in
- let’s just have some okay i see
you’re doing okay yeah so let’s just
assume and uh let’s assume you put 20
down so where’s my damn calculator so
170 grand i could do that let’s just
call it 34 grand 34 right
so
so okay 136 home yeah so you take a loan
for 136. uh then now it’s now it’s worth
270 and this is that’s actually 220.
let’s median home price well it looks
like you had put down the amounts
already there as far as like it looks
like 10 is that what you’re using before
okay yeah yeah yeah but hold on
let’s get median home for actually do i
have that in here because i’ve added
data
since then
yeah medium home price was that yeah i
saw it yeah let’s see
oh so i added it for july of 21. so 363.
what is the median home price folks give
me one second let google be it do its
thing
median
home price
uh we’ll call it december
2021
boom boom
375 grand according to google so let’s
do that so
375 grand let’s go back to where we were
so we bought it for 170 and now it’s
worth 375.
so that’s an appreciation of 205 grand
you’re with me
oh yeah
but when you start talking those kind of
numbers that’s sexy i’m not like oh i’m
falling i’m done i’m in so but you only
put 34 000 down so
right 205 grand
divided by 34 000.
oh it’s only 602 percent yeah you know
not bad a bad investment
not bad yeah 600 602 because again with
real estate you get leverage
what is it uh
what is it here so let’s see for for the
stock market 30 right
78
13 12. yeah 250 for the stock market so
not bad that’s not bad
yeah that’s good i’d rather take 600
though but you know hey i would too and
not have to ride along on the roller
coaster ride of up and down and changes
and oh it’s a steady slope up you know
so and then rent i think i had rent in
here oh yeah that’s another interesting
cash flow oh man so not only
appreciation in in an asset yeah but
then yeah yeah yeah you don’t have rent
in here mike come on come on man i know
i did not need to spend 26 hours of your
time the good news is i have the data i
just didn’t put it in here somebody said
no i don’t know okay that’s funny so
again rents right so again your 30-year
debt’s fixed your rent your payment your
payment never changes
because now i mean the appreciation in
the value that’s just almost like buying
a stock right but if you show them the
rents now the cash flows increased over
the last 10 years it’s like wait a
minute you don’t account for that yeah
you know wait up wait a minute
yeah i’m trying to think of the lyric
but it just escapes me but anyways so
this is this is how i look back i don’t
want to do 10-year look back of pictures
and all that i want to look back at real
estate the real estate market was at the
bottom interest rates really haven’t
moved wages have gone up 50 percent
uh
wow again if you bought a piece of
property in 2012 you got 600
without considering rent so i would say
uh i have a saying stephen you’ve heard
me say time in the markets is better
than timing the market
uh so yeah there’s my 10-year look back
any other thoughts
uh no that’s the fun part of the 10-year
uh i guess you know challenge because
for uh asian uh because for people of
asian descent it’s not that fun because
it’s exactly the same
let’s go to my yearbook it’s just the
facial hair otherwise it’s exactly the
same man so
uh yeah but
yeah that was a fun little uh you know
uh uh memory a trip down memory lane
because uh brought back a lot of
different memories from different some
good episodes
yes yes definitely but three yeah 2012
definitely the bottom if if you are
doing some work and you’re starting to
reinvest in the market yeah man you’re
sitting pretty right now yeah and i got
to tell you 2012 because again i was
buying i was buying i was buying
handover fists in my market 2010 to 2012
and nobody was there i mean it was it
was comical i was buying out of the mls
nobody was showing up it was it was
crazy yeah well and then wall street
came in and changed the game in like
2013 i was like damn those guys oh well
right well they saw they saw what was
going on but uh i mean yeah if you could
put together the rent part that would be
i think very interesting because then
now i think everybody else they know
that property values again are going to
go up at some point it says time in the
market like you say but as far as the
the cash flow aspect i think that’s
where it’s really going to gravitate
like wait a minute what did you just say
how much did it go for 10 years oh my
gosh so then did you just add it all up
and so that plus the appreciation okay
fine i will do more work just for you
anyway looking forward to that data
there you go well folks stephen dao has
a playlist below uh check him out if
you’re looking to get started and you
can’t get a bank loan from matt the
mortgage guy stephen dow’s a guy for you
how do you want them to reach out
uh s gao uh velocitymortgage.com
uh please leave the best phone number to
call you back at uh a gist of maybe the
um
a brief description of the scenario
looking to get information on or at
least some general terms as far as
property type maybe loan amount range
ltv your mid fico score um and at least
maybe city and state where the products
located and or address would be helpful
because there’s a lot of different
factors that could impact whether or not
i say yes or no right off the bat and or
could impact your rate so all the
information will help save time between
the back and forth emails uh you know
multiple phone calls things of that
nature in addition to that apologies for
so many people been trying to reach me
just getting buried sometimes the i
don’t know why the
uh
uh
firewall gets you know still catches
things with with the orat uh in there
and i try to go there at the end of the
day to try to catch people but we’re
just getting so much positive response
and so it’s just 24 hours a day man i’m
trying the best i can to get caught up
so please if you don’t reach me the
first time keep keep
and then i’ll send you back my phone
number and then you call me at your
early school meetings and then we’ll try
to you know make that happen but i i
really am working every day even on the
weekends so if you you know to stay
persistent i promise i’ll get back to
the end or i’ll pick up as fast as i can
it’s just when people are trying to
schedule a call there’s no time to
schedule it’s just literally yeah yeah
i’m just yeah so okay
the good news folks is you have the
weekend coming up so again uh send them
an email this weekend so you get on the
keller calendar for monday or tuesday
send them a note this weekend let’s
let’s see if we can’t get 10 or 15
people uh so we can uh start working
with you next week so oh no they’re
they’re
we’re beyond 10 15 mike so uh but yeah
bring it on 10 or 15 new people
okay
oh okay well thanks thank you for
working yeah thank you